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NAVY

Navy 9 at Air Force 14

AF
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:49 · (12:58) #99 L.Gossett punt 50 yards to the AF21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+14.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score differential−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:33: (00:33) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) — AF win probability +11.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:59: (07:03) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete deep middle to #83 T.Brasfield caught at AF35, for 68 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:59, 1ST DOWN #89 L.Hutchison pass attempt failed — NAVY win probability +11.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:56: Timeout Navy, clock 01:56 — NAVY win probability +13.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:49: Timeout Navy, clock 01:49 — NAVY win probability +7.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47: (01:47) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF50 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWN — AF win probability +19.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:49NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:43NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:05NAVY 4th & 6 at AF 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:05AF 4th & 7 at AF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:02NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:56AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:21NAVY 4th & 4 at AF 12, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%−0.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−6.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:37AF 4th & 4 at NAVY 31, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:08NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:20AF 4th & 1 at AF 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.0%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:47AF 4th & 10 at AF 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:05AF 4th & 2 at AF 49, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.7%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:09NAVY 4th & 7 at AF 46, down 5
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−3.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:25AF 4th & 4 at AF 44, up 5
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:26NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 19, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:59AF 4th & 10 at NAVY 40, up 5
    Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:58NAVY 4th & 25 at NAVY 13, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 9:11AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:33AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:59NAVY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0335% → 35%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 1 yard gain to the NAVY26 (#8 D.Daley; #93 A.Tillett)Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
65.2%
(14:20) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush right for 0 yards to the NAVY26 (#24 J.Elie-Stuart)Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
65.2%
(13:37) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass complete short right to #23 C.Robinson caught at NAVY25, for 3 yards to the NAVY29 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
65.3%
(12:58) #99 L.Gossett punt 50 yards to the AF21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5165% → 65%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
65.1%
(12:46) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush right for 0 yards to the AF21 (#45 C.Johnson; #94 X.Arrington)Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
65.1%
(12:06) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 7 yards gain to the AF28 (#5 M.Seliga)Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+8
65.0%
(11:29) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 8 yards gain to the AF36 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.1%
(10:53) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass intercepted by #6 P.Hamilton at NAVY37 QB hurried by #18 W.Miller #6 P.Hamilton return 0 yards to the NAVY37 (#3 M.Long)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:3735% → 36%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.7%
(10:47) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAVY41 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
64.4%
PENALTY NAVY False Start (#83 T.Brasfield) 5 yards from NAVY41 to NAVY36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
64.7%
(09:50) #26 M.Barrow rush right for 0 yards to the NAVY36 (#8 D.Daley; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+9
64.9%
(09:08) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NAVY45 (#6 B.Fletcher). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down prior to losing the ball". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (09:08) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NAVY45 (#6 B.Fletcher))Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+18
64.4%
(08:45) No Huddle #26 M.Barrow rush left for 18 yards gain to the AF37 (#2 K.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
63.8%
(08:11) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF35 (#9 M.Mustell)Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
63.3%
(07:33) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush right for 0 yards to the AF35 (#6 B.Fletcher; #2 K.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+2
63.5%
(06:49) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF33 (#45 J.Reese; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+50
63.9%
(06:05) #44 N.Bartley field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #99 L.Gossett, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 06:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0064% → 64%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
64.4%
PENALTY AF False Start (#72 J.Ashford) 5 yards from AF33 to AF28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-2
64.2%
(06:03) No Huddle #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards loss to the AF26 (#93 A.Lyczek; #94 X.Arrington)Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+8
64.0%
(05:29) No Huddle #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AF34 (#5 M.Seliga)Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+2
63.8%
(04:53) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF36 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
63.5%
(04:14) #94 W.Duncan punt 50 yards to the NAVY14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5836% → 36%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
63.8%
(04:03) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAVY17 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
63.7%
(03:31) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short left to #26 M.Barrow caught at NAVY12, for 4 yards to the NAVY21 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
63.9%
(02:48) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 0 yards to the NAVY21 (#30 I.Hubert; #8 D.Daley)Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
63.9%
(02:09) #99 L.Gossett punt 44 yards to the AF35 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 7:4464% → 71%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
64.2%
(01:59) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF42 (#5 M.Seliga)Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
65.1%
(01:22) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF46 (#13 C.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.2%
(00:40) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Dawson thrown to NAVY20Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
64.6%
(00:37) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF49 (#13 C.Robinson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
64.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 8 yards gain to the NAVY43 (#56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
65.4%
(14:24) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAVY42 (#93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
65.3%
(13:48) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAVY40 (#13 C.Robinson; #5 M.Seliga)Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+20
65.0%
(13:08) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #10 A.Hrynciw caught at NAVY21, for 20 yards to the NAVY20 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
65.7%
(12:37) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAVY18 (#45 C.Johnson) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (#72 J.Ashford) 15 yards from NAVY20 to NAVY35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+1
65.0%
(12:15) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAVY34 (#95 G.Willis; #93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 24
OPP 34
+12
64.8%
(11:40) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 12 yards gain to the NAVY22 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+17
64.6%
(11:08) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #8 J.Dawson caught at NAVY05, for 17 yards to the NAVY05 (#13 C.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
65.8%
(10:32) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAVY03 (#6 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.9%
(09:54) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAVY01 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.8%
(09:21) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4730% → 29%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.7%
(09:09) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAVY26 (#5 R.Jones; #95 N.Daniels)Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.0%
(08:32) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Gutierrez thrown to NAVY30Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
70.4%
(08:29) Shotgun #5 B.Woodson pass incomplete short left to #83 T.Brasfield thrown to NAVY40 broken up by #30 I.Hubert QB hurried by #30 I.HubertSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
70.9%
(08:25) #99 L.Gossett punt 54 yards to the AF20 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF20 PENALTY NAVY Illegal Formation (#82 A.Clark) 5 yards from AF20 to AF25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1872% → 71%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.2%
(08:18) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF28 (#93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.2%
(07:43) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #19 G.Wayne thrown to AF39 QB hurried by #58 C.CauleySimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
71.5%
(07:38) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AF27 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+47
71.0%
(07:05) #94 W.Duncan punt 47 yards to the NAVY26 #23 C.Robinson return for loss of 1 yard to the NAVY25 (#0 L.Fisher)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 4:3028% → 34%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.9%
(06:54) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NAVY36 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
71.3%
(06:15) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #89 L.Hutchison caught at NAVY50, for 20 yards to the AF44 (#5 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
69.9%
(05:43) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 13 yards gain to the AF31 (#9 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
69.0%
(05:03) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF24 (#30 I.Hubert; #23 C.Paterson)Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+6
68.7%
(04:26) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF18 (#30 I.Hubert; #9 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.8%
(03:50) #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short right to #23 C.Robinson thrown to AF00Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
69.2%
(03:44) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF16 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+4
70.2%
(03:02) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF12 (#2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
66.4%
(02:21) #44 N.Bartley field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #99 L.Gossett, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 02:21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:4169% → 82%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.4%
(02:19) #44 R.Conti rush right for 12 yards gain to the AF37 (#16 G.Sessi), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NAVY Personal Foul (#6 P.Hamilton) 15 yards from AF37 to NAVY48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
72.1%
(02:05) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 7 yards gain to the NAVY41 (#6 P.Hamilton; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
72.1%
(01:58) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAVY39 (#93 A.Lyczek; #56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
71.4%
(01:27) #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAVY37 (#5 M.Seliga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
72.4%
(01:11) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short left to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo thrown to NAVY38Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
72.1%
(01:07) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAVY31 (#5 M.Seliga; #3 I.Oniha)Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
71.9%
(00:47) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #44 R.Conti thrown to NAVY25 QB hurried by #56 M.ParkerSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+23
70.6%
(00:40) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #80 S.Kibbee caught at NAVY21, for 23 yards to the NAVY08 (#6 P.Hamilton; #3 I.Oniha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.3%
(00:33) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NAVY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1919% → 16%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.1%
(00:30) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAVY27 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.3%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short right to #84 J.Collins thrown to NAVY34Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
82.1%
(00:09) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAVY32 (#45 J.Reese; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
84.3%
(00:08) #99 L.Gossett punt 62 yards to the AF06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 6:0579% → 81%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF31 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
79.9%
(14:25) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF34 (#5 M.Seliga; #93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
79.5%
(13:57) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF38 (#18 W.Miller; #16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.9%
(13:17) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 0 yards to the AF38 (#95 G.Willis; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
80.8%
(12:42) #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo rush right for 1 yard gain to the AF39 (#45 C.Johnson; #5 M.Seliga)Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+8
80.4%
(12:04) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short middle to #8 J.Dawson caught at AF41, for 8 yards to the AF47 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
80.4%
(11:24) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF49 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.3%
(10:49) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #80 S.Kibbee caught at AF49, for 0 yards to the AF49 (#18 W.Miller)Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
82.5%
(10:09) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 0 yards to the AF49 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
82.0%
(09:33) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 0 yards to the AF49 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+7
81.3%
(08:57) #94 W.Duncan punt 48 yards to the NAVY03 #23 C.Robinson return 7 yards to the NAVY10 (#6 B.Fletcher) PENALTY NAVY Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:4219% → 28%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
80.9%
(08:46) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 8 yards gain to the NAVY18 (#6 B.Fletcher; #2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+3
82.8%
(08:17) #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAVY21 (#8 D.Daley; #45 J.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
83.4%
(07:39) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short left to #23 C.Robinson caught at NAVY32, for 11 yards to the NAVY32 (#4 M.Seiken), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
72.2%
(07:03) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete deep middle to #83 T.Brasfield caught at AF35, for 68 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:59, 1ST DOWN #89 L.Hutchison pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14INT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:5073% → 76%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.1%
(06:56) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#53 M.Bleazard; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
73.4%
(06:19) #44 R.Conti rush left for 5 yards gain to the AF34 (#5 M.Seliga; #14 T.Gillis)Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
73.8%
(05:43) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF37 (#99 C.Herock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
74.4%
(05:09) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AF45 (#53 M.Bleazard; #13 C.Robinson)Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+2
75.5%
(04:49) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF47 (#14 T.Gillis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.5%
(04:14) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete deep middle to #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo thrown to NAVY20 broken up by #13 C.Robinson PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference offsetting AF Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
75.5%
(04:08) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NAVY43 (#5 M.Seliga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
76.8%
(03:32) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush right for 1 yard gain to the NAVY42 (#93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-1
76.8%
(02:53) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NAVY43 (#99 C.Herock)Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-12
75.9%
(02:09) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass intercepted by #5 M.Seliga at NAVY25 QB hurried by #93 A.Lyczek #5 M.Seliga return 12 yards to the NAVY37 (#3 M.Long; #80 S.Kibbee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:0925% → 28%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
75.4%
(01:58) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 5 yards gain to the NAVY42 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
73.3%
(01:22) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #89 L.Hutchison caught at AF45, for 13 yards to the AF45, out of bounds at AF45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.4%
(00:49) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF41 fumbled by #40 V.Listorti at AF44 forced by #99 J.Oquendo recovered by AF #26 A.Perez at AF41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3376% → 76%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
76.3%
(00:42) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF45 (#14 T.Gillis)Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
76.6%
(00:00) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF47 (#6 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+2
76.2%
(14:58) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF49 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
75.5%
(14:15) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 0 yards to the AF49 (#58 C.Cauley), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4827% → 23%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
72.7%
(14:01) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF46 (#26 A.Perez)Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
72.8%
(13:24) #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short left to #89 L.Hutchison thrown to AF32 QB hurried by #9 M.MustellSimilar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
73.8%
(13:21) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short right to #86 J.Guerin thrown to AF32 broken up by #9 M.Mustell QB hurried by #8 D.DaleySimilar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
77.1%
(13:13) #99 L.Gossett punt 46 yards to the AF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3776% → 81%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
76.1%
(13:07) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF24 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+14
78.4%
(12:39) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #8 J.Dawson caught at AF37, for 14 yards to the AF38, out of bounds at AF38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
80.8%
(12:25) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 8 yards loss to the AF30 (#5 M.Seliga)Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+3
80.3%
(11:48) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF33 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+11
79.4%
(11:13) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 11 yards gain to the AF44 (#96 C.Young)Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
80.6%
(10:34) #94 W.Duncan punt 51 yards to the NAVY05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5218% → 15%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
81.8%
(10:22) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAVY07 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+4
82.8%
(09:46) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 4 yards gain to the NAVY11 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+9
82.2%
(09:00) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #15 E.Blouir caught at NAVY17, for 9 yards to the NAVY20 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
82.9%
(08:22) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 1 yard loss to the NAVY19 (#95 N.Daniels)Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
83.7%
(07:44) #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete deep right to #83 T.Brasfield thrown to AF45Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
84.4%
(07:36) #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short middle to #45 C.Daley II thrown to NAVY25 QB hurried by #45 J.Reese and #93 A.Tillett PENALTY NAVY Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
84.9%
(07:31) #99 L.Gossett punt 41 yards to the AF40, out of bounds at AF40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2089% → 90%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
88.5%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the AF42 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
88.8%
(06:53) #44 R.Conti rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF45 (#5 M.Seliga)Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+15
88.9%
(06:08) #18 M.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #10 A.Hrynciw thrown to NAVY16 PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference (#16 G.Sessi) 15 yards from AF45 to NAVY40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
90.1%
(06:02) #28 G.LaDue rush right for 0 yards to the NAVY40 (#14 T.Gillis)Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
90.4%
(05:25) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush left for 3 yards gain to the NAVY37 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-3
90.4%
(04:48) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 3 yards loss to the NAVY40 (#53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
89.6%
(04:04) #94 W.Duncan punt 29 yards to the NAVY11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:559% → 10%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
91.5%
(03:57) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 2 yards gain to the NAVY13 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+15
91.8%
(03:27) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #89 L.Hutchison caught at NAVY19, for 15 yards to the NAVY28 (#9 M.Mustell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
91.3%
(02:58) #8 J.Gutierrez sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NAVY18 (#9 M.Mustell)Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 20
OWN 18
0
92.7%
(02:16) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete deep left to #83 T.Brasfield thrown to AF40Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+5
93.1%
PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from NAVY18 to NAVY13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 25
OWN 13
0
93.1%
(02:11) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete deep right to #88 M.Barlow thrown to NAVY45 broken up by #5 R.JonesSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 25
OWN 13
0
90.3%
(02:02) #99 L.Gossett punt 48 yards to the AF39, out of bounds at AF39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22END OF HALF
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:2395% → 95%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
95.0%
(01:58) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF42 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
95.3%
(01:54) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF48 (#22 E.Walker; #94 X.Arrington)Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
94.7%
(01:47) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF50 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
50
+3
95.8%
(01:15) #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAVY47 (#13 C.Robinson; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-2
95.3%
(00:31) Kneel down by Air Force at NAVY49 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47
(01:47) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF50 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWN
+19.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:56
Timeout Navy, clock 01:56
-13.2
TD · Q3 6:59
(07:03) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete deep middle to #83 T.Brasfield caught at AF35, for 68 yards to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:59, 1ST DOWN #89 L.Hutchison pass attempt failed
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com