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UTSA

UTSA 16 at Rice 14

RICE
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:18 · (01:24) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #19 J.Clark caught at UTSA25, for 7 yards to the UTSA23 (#11 C.Upshaw Jr.), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior−9.4Home team on offense−12.2Score differential−5.2Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:09: (03:09) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 38 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:09, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler) — RICE win probability +3.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:26: (12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 12 yards gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:26, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges) — UTSA win probability +6.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:35: (13:35) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #49 T.Bauchiero kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler) — RICE win probability +20.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:56: Timeout Rice, clock 01:56 — RICE win probability +24.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:52: (01:52) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice43 (#54 A.Harnetiaux) — UTSA win probability +25.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:52UTSA 4th & 2 at RICE 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:41UTSA 4th & 6 at RICE 35, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:28RICE 4th & 4 at UTSA 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:23UTSA 4th & 1 at RICE 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:08RICE 4th & 3 at UTSA 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49UTSA 4th & 4 at RICE 4, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:25RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:28RICE 4th & 4 at UTSA 23, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:19UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 44, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.8%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:56UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 43, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:16RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:18RICE 4th & 4 at UTSA 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:35RICE 4th & 1 at UTSA 1, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−5.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−16.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:57UTSA 4th & 8 at RICE 18, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−20.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:58RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:45UTSA 4th & 8 at RICE 43, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−3.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%−2.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:50RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 15, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:09RICE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:26UTSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:35RICE Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3520% → 20%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.8%
(14:57) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 0 yards to the Rice25 (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.; #15 D.White)Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
20.1%
(14:18) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush left for 3 yards loss to the Rice22 fumbled by #26 T.Byars at Rice20 recovered by UTSA #1 C.Cooper at Rice22, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1980% → 79%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
20.1%
(14:14) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 2 yards gain to the Rice20 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
20.3%
(13:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at Rice21, for 5 yards to the Rice15 (#33 S.Combs; #2 J.Chavez)Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+1
20.4%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Rice14 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+32
20.7%
(12:52) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 12:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4321% → 21%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
(12:48) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Clark thrown to Rice25Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.8%
(12:41) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 6 yards gain to the Rice31 (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
21.1%
(11:54) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush right for 3 yards loss to the Rice28 (#1 C.Cooper)Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
21.3%
(11:11) #29 C.Durkin punt 51 yards to the UTSA21 #0 D.Amador II return 14 yards to the UTSA35 (#18 A.Ogbor)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1979% → 78%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.5%
(11:00) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep left to #0 D.Amador II thrown to Rice44 QB hurried by #56 S.ClarkeSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
21.6%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 11 yards gain to the UTSA46 (#2 J.Chavez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
21.5%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Rice48 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
21.7%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to Rice24 QB hurried by #56 S.ClarkeSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+9
21.8%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #0 D.Amador II caught at Rice44, for 9 yards to the Rice39 (#10 K.Condoll; #56 S.Clarke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.9%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep right to #14 M.Anderson thrown to Rice00Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
21.9%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice35 (#11 C.Clark-Jolivet; #7 A.Brown)Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
22.1%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #13 J.Hardy thrown to Rice29 QB hurried by #3 K.AkuiSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
21.9%
(08:41) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 53 yards GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 08:41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2122% → 28%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.1%
(08:34) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Rice33 (#2 O.Pewee; #23 B.Tucker, Jr.)Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
22.6%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice37 (#32 E.Baldwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
22.7%
(07:21) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 2 yards loss to the Rice35 (#34 J.Walley Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
22.7%
(06:37) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #84 W.Swartz thrown to UTSA30 QB hurried by #0 J.BaileySimilar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+10
22.5%
(06:31) PENALTY UTSA Holding (#18 A.Chapman) 10 yards from Rice35 to Rice45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
23.4%
(06:26) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the Rice49 (#2 O.Pewee; #22 E.Newell)Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
23.6%
(05:44) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the Rice49 (#15 D.White; #22 E.Newell)Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+2
23.6%
(05:17) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA49 (#94 E.Smith)Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+11
23.6%
(04:34) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short right to #19 J.Clark caught at UTSA45, for 11 yards to the UTSA38 (#25 N.Robinson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
24.6%
(03:49) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA38 (#94 E.Smith)Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
27.9%
(03:09) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 38 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:09, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:3373% → 77%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.8%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UTSA32 (#44 C.King)Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
26.5%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #14 M.Anderson caught at UTSA29, for 10 yards to the UTSA42 (#3 K.Akui), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
26.6%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #10 B.High Jr. caught at UTSA43, for 2 yards to the UTSA44 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
26.8%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #15 D.Allen thrown to UTSA47 QB hurried by #57 A.ClemmonsSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+18
27.4%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #15 D.Allen caught at Rice38, for 18 yards to the Rice38, out of bounds at Rice38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
26.8%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #15 D.Allen caught at Rice40, for 3 yards to the Rice35 (#0 D.Hook)Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
26.6%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Rice30 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
27.3%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (#55 M.Senegal) 5 yards from Rice30 to Rice35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+6
27.7%
(14:54) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #89 B.Young Jr. caught at Rice29, for 6 yards to the Rice29 (#3 K.Akui)Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
28.5%
(14:31) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice25 (#7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
27.6%
(13:57) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 6 yards loss to the Rice31 (#3 K.Akui)Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+2
28.8%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #0 D.Amador II caught at Rice29, for 2 yards to the Rice29 (#94 B.Bays; #14 B.Barton)Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+17
30.0%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #0 D.Amador II caught at Rice14, for 17 yards to the Rice12 (#44 C.King; #0 D.Hook), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
23.0%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 12 yards gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:26, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1825% → 27%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.2%
PENALTY Rice Delay Of Game 5 yards from Rice25 to Rice20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
25.2%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush right for 1 yard loss to the Rice19 (#14 J.Rogers; #22 E.Newell)Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+40
25.4%
(11:34) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete deep left to #6 B.Grice caught at UTSA48, for 40 yards to the UTSA41 (#22 E.Newell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
27.4%
(11:01) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 8 yards gain to the UTSA33 (#22 E.Newell)Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 33
-2
28.5%
(10:30) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UTSA35 (#0 J.Bailey)Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
27.7%
(09:47) Shotgun #13 M.Mosey rush right for 1 yard gain to the UTSA34 (#34 J.Walley Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
27.0%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Clark thrown to UTSA30, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:1076% → 78%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
24.4%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 19 yards gain to the Rice47 (#2 J.Chavez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
23.5%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Anderson rush right for 23 yards gain to the Rice24 (#5 J.Harper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
22.4%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 17 yards gain to the Rice07 (#33 S.Combs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
22.4%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice05 (#10 K.Condoll; #54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
22.5%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush left for 2 yards gain to the Rice03 (#12 J.Benjamin; #54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
22.9%
(06:13) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Rice04 (#94 B.Bays)Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
22.1%
(05:49) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 05:49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:1123% → 23%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.0%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 M.Mosey rush right for 5 yards gain to the Rice30 (#53 E.Osondu)Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
23.5%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 M.Mosey rush right for 5 yards gain to the Rice35 (), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.5%
(04:39) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #81 B.Walker thrown to Rice43Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
23.5%
(04:32) Shotgun #19 J.Clark rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice36 (#25 N.Robinson Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+5
23.1%
PENALTY Rice Delay Of Game 5 yards from Rice36 to Rice31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
22.5%
(03:35) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #13 M.Mosey thrown to UTSA37 QB hurried by #91 J.SampletonSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+12
22.9%
(03:28) #29 C.Durkin punt 56 yards to the UTSA13 #0 D.Amador II return 12 yards to the UTSA25 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2778% → 79%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.7%
(03:19) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to Rice33Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.1%
(03:14) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA26 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
22.2%
(02:37) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #28 A.Peterson caught at UTSA26, for 23 yards to the UTSA49 (#7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
20.3%
(02:10) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short middle to #13 J.Hardy thrown to Rice40Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
20.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA49 (#8 J.Mutombo)Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
20.6%
(01:52) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass intercepted by #0 D.Hook at #0 D.Hook return 0 yards to the Rice38 (#0 D.Amador II)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4224% → 22%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
24.1%
(01:43) Shotgun #11 J.Brown sacked for loss of 3 yards to the Rice35 (#0 J.Bailey)Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+7
22.0%
(01:36) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 7 yards gain to the Rice42 fumbled by #11 J.Brown at Rice42 forced by #11 C.Upshaw Jr., out of bounds at Rice42Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
22.6%
(01:13) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #81 B.Walker thrown to UTSA30Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
22.3%
(01:09) #29 C.Durkin punt 57 yards to the UTSA01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:5178% → 78%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
22.4%
PENALTY Rice Offside (#57 A.Clemmons) 5 yards from UTSA01 to UTSA06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+3
22.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #14 M.Anderson caught at UTSA09, for 3 yards to the UTSA09, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+4
22.3%
(00:09) PENALTY UTSA Holding (#73 A.Breland) 4 yards from UTSA09 to UTSA05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 6
OWN 5
-1
21.9%
(00:07) Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UTSA04, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 7
OWN 4
-2
22.4%
(00:00) Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UTSA02, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1978% → 79%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.7%
(14:54) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTSA29 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
21.3%
(14:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA29 fumbled by #2 O.McCown at forced by #56 S.Clarke recovered by Rice #3 K.Akui at UTSA29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5526% → 24%
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
26.3%
(14:26) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA28 (#1 C.Cooper; #23 B.Tucker, Jr.)Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
26.5%
(13:48) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA28 (#0 J.Bailey)Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+5
25.3%
(13:07) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA23 (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.; #15 D.White)Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+42
23.8%
(12:28) #28 E.Gota field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler), clock 12:28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 19 yds · 5:1878% → 78%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
22.0%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #14 M.Anderson caught at UTSA26, for 8 yards to the UTSA32 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
21.2%
(12:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA32 (#2 J.Chavez; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
21.7%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTSA35 (#96 D.Botts; #10 K.Condoll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
21.4%
(10:39) Shotgun #2 O.McCown sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UTSA28 (#15 M.Aribisala)Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+5
22.3%
(09:58) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #84 A.Wilson caught at UTSA29, for 5 yards to the UTSA33 (#15 M.Aribisala)Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+5
22.8%
PENALTY Rice Offside (#8 J.Mutombo) 5 yards from UTSA33 to UTSA38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
20.3%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #15 D.Allen caught at UTSA44, for 6 yards to the UTSA44 (#3 K.Akui)Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
20.9%
(08:26) No Huddle #18 M.Wiepert rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA46 (#54 A.Harnetiaux), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
19.8%
(07:59) No Huddle #10 B.High Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the UTSA48 (#10 K.Condoll), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
19.8%
(07:26) No Huddle #2 O.McCown sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UTSA38 (#13 T.May, #2 J.Chavez)Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 18
OWN 38
+5
21.4%
PENALTY Rice Offside (#11 C.Clark-Jolivet) 5 yards from UTSA38 to UTSA43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 13
OWN 43
0
21.3%
(07:08) No Huddle #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep right to #17 J.Madison II thrown to Rice37Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
22.0%
(07:03) #30 C.Hogan punt 45 yards to the Rice12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD
22 plays · 88 yds · 8:1122% → 44%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
21.8%
(06:50) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice14 (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-3
21.8%
(06:19) Shotgun #13 M.Mosey rush right for 3 yards loss to the Rice11 (#2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+13
20.8%
(05:36) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short middle to #7 B.Jackson Jr. caught at Rice24, for 13 yards to the Rice24 (#20 Z.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
22.1%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Rice29 (#22 E.Newell)Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
22.7%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Rice35 (#22 E.Newell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
22.4%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 5 yards gain to the Rice40 (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.)Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
23.7%
(04:12) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Rice41 (#53 E.Osondu)Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
22.8%
(03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Rice42 (#32 E.Baldwin; #98 J.Buxton)Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+22
21.6%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 22 yards gain to the UTSA36 (#20 Z.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
25.0%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTSA33 (#26 B.Grays; #53 E.Osondu)Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
26.5%
PENALTY Rice False Start (#53 L.Miller) 5 yards from UTSA33 to UTSA38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+8
22.9%
(02:21) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #19 J.Clark caught at UTSA33, for 8 yards to the UTSA30 (#11 C.Upshaw Jr.)Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
23.5%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA30 (#15 D.White; #99 T.Leonard)Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+7
21.5%
(01:24) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #19 J.Clark caught at UTSA25, for 7 yards to the UTSA23 (#11 C.Upshaw Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
24.9%
(00:46) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #13 M.Mosey thrown to UTSA00Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
24.9%
(00:39) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 9 yards gain to the UTSA14 (#11 C.Upshaw Jr.)Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
23.5%
(00:11) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTSA10 (#2 O.Pewee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
25.1%
(14:54) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTSA09 (#91 J.Sampleton)Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
25.1%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA04 (#99 T.Leonard; #98 J.Buxton)Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
23.5%
(13:52) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTSA01 (#15 D.White)Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.5%
(13:35) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #49 T.Bauchiero kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17MISSED FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 6:2465% → 65%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.7%
(13:29) Shotgun #0 D.Amador II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTSA28 (#96 D.Botts)Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
34.5%
(12:48) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA23, for 8 yards to the UTSA36 (#12 J.Benjamin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
33.7%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 13 yards gain to the UTSA49 (#2 J.Chavez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
31.7%
(12:06) Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush left for 5 yards gain to the Rice46 (#2 J.Chavez)Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
31.4%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short middle to #0 D.Amador II thrown to Rice42 broken up by #3 K.AkuiSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+13
32.2%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush left for 13 yards gain to the Rice33 (#0 D.Hook), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
30.3%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice32 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+15
30.5%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush right for 15 yards gain to the Rice17 (#2 J.Chavez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
30.1%
PENALTY UTSA Holding (#81 M.Campbell) 10 yards from Rice17 to Rice27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+10
31.1%
(09:43) PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (#86 I.Butler-Tanner) 10 yards from Rice27 to Rice37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 30
OPP 0
+12
30.9%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #1 W.Henderson III caught at Rice40, for 12 yards to the Rice25 (#5 J.Harper) PENALTY UTSA Holding (#13 J.Hardy) 10 yards from Rice25 to Rice35Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 28
OPP 35
+15
31.5%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (#10 K.Condoll) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
30.5%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush right for 3 yards gain to the Rice17 (#57 A.Clemmons)Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
30.5%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice15 (#57 A.Clemmons; #8 J.Mutombo)Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-3
32.5%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 3 yards loss to the Rice18 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
35.5%
(06:57) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 36 yards NO GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 06:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5444% → 41%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.0%
(06:52) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Rice25 (#32 E.Baldwin) PENALTY UTSA Personal Foul (#98 J.Buxton) 15 yards from Rice25 to Rice40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
48.2%
(06:33) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Rice39 (#32 E.Baldwin; #0 J.Bailey)Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-2
45.8%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Rice37 (#99 T.Leonard; #26 B.Grays)Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
42.4%
(05:15) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #7 B.Jackson Jr. thrown to UTSA49 QB hurried by #0 J.BaileySimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+18
40.6%
(05:10) #29 C.Durkin punt 52 yards to the UTSA11 #0 D.Amador II return 18 yards to the UTSA29 (#3 K.Akui)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:0269% → 80%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
31.4%
(04:52) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #14 M.Anderson caught at UTSA27, for 4 yards to the UTSA33 (#10 K.Condoll; #54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
29.1%
(04:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush right for 9 yards gain to the UTSA42 (#12 J.Benjamin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
26.1%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA40, for 9 yards to the Rice49 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
23.4%
(03:05) Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice45 (#33 S.Combs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
21.3%
(02:11) Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice43 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-2
18.6%
(01:54) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at Rice46, for 2 yards loss to the Rice45 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+2
17.8%
(01:52) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice43 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
19.8%
(01:45) #30 C.Hogan punt 25 yards to the Rice18 fair catch by #13 M.Mosey at Rice18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4634% → 22%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
33.7%
(01:40) Shotgun #11 J.Brown sacked for loss of 7 yards to the Rice11 (#15 D.White)Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+9
29.0%
(01:14) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #81 B.Walker caught at Rice17, for 9 yards to the Rice20 (#14 J.Rogers)Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-5
27.9%
(00:56) Shotgun #11 J.Brown sacked for loss of 5 yards to the Rice15 (#1 C.Cooper)Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+8
21.9%
(00:50) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 8 yards gain to the Rice23 (#15 D.White), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1691% → 94%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
9.3%
(00:48) Kneel down by UTSA at Rice24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-2
5.9%
(00:28) Kneel down by UTSA at Rice26 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:52
(01:52) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice43 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)
-25.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:56
Timeout Rice, clock 01:56
+24.4
TD · Q4 13:35
(13:35) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35, 1ST DOWN #49 T.Bauchiero kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)
+20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com