Try the model
USF

South Florida 14 at Bowling Green 6

BGSU
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.7BGSU 33.5%(07:29) #12 T.Kenner field goalattempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #30R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock07:26AWAY 0 - HOME 6 · Q2 7:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:26 · (07:29) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 07:26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−27.5Home team on offense+5.1Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: (15:00) #12 T.Kenner kickoff 39 yards to the USF26 fair catch by #85 K.Caton at USF26 PENALTY BGSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#18 N.Sawyer) 15 yards from USF26 to USF41 — BGSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:13: (01:20) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to USF46 — BGSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: (14:56) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 0 yards to the BGSU44 (#3 D.Pringle) — USF win probability +13.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:07: (12:11) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush right for 2 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:07 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) — USF win probability +20.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:34: (05:37) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:34 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) — USF win probability +22.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:54BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06BGSU 4th & 3 at USF 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:24BGSU 4th & 16 at USF 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07USF 4th & 16 at USF 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:51BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:03USF 4th & 4 at USF 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:26BGSU 4th & 7 at USF 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:07USF 4th & 6 at USF 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:44BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:44USF 4th & 22 at BGSU 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−4.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:00BGSU 4th & 12 at USF 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−1.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:20USF 4th & 1 at USF 18, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:57BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.9%−4.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:17BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−4.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:37BGSU 4th & 16 at USF 30, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q4 12:07USF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−1.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:34USF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5913% → 14%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BGSU29 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
13.5%
(14:17) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #18 W.Sharp thrown to BGSU35Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
13.6%
(14:15) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy thrown to BGSU37 broken up by #5 A.Jackson QB hurried by #25 Z.HamiltonSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
13.6%
(14:04) #30 R.Kingston punt 40 yards to the USF31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2886% → 86%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
13.8%
(13:54) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #5 D.Crowther caught at USF27, for 11 yards to the USF42 (#9 P.EstoEsta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
13.9%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF44 (#44 A.Odom)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-2
14.1%
(12:52) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards loss to the USF42 (#5 E.George)Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-10
14.5%
(12:11) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 10 yards to the USF32 (#23 M.Bradley), fumble by #3 M.Van Buren Jr. recovered by BGSU #5 E.George at USF32 #5 E.George return 0 yards to the USF32 (#67 T.Shrader)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4415% → 16%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
14.9%
(12:00) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USF29 (#25 Z.Hamilton; #8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
15.2%
(11:25) #1 A.Dendy rush right for 4 yards gain to the USF25 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
15.5%
(10:48) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 0 yards to the USF25 (#90 T.Jones)Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
15.9%
(10:08) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 10:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1284% → 83%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.9%
(10:05) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 6 yards gain to the USF31 (#26 J.Andrews; #4 K.Kostus)Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
16.3%
(09:28) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the USF34 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
16.5%
(08:51) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush left for 0 yards to the USF34 (#0 K.Pascal; #23 M.Bradley) PENALTY BGSU Offside (#23 M.Bradley) 5 yards from USF34 to USF39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
16.8%
(08:13) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 9 yards gain to the USF48 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-8
16.8%
(07:51) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 8 yards to the USF40 (#23 M.Bradley), fumble by #3 M.Van Buren Jr. recovered by BGSU #23 M.Bradley at USF40, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0718% → 18%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
17.7%
(07:45) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF39 (#33 A.Mosley; #7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-7
18.1%
(07:03) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin sacked for loss of 7 yards to the USF46 (#18 L.Smiley)Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
18.1%
(06:18) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin sacked for loss of 0 yards to the USF46 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
18.2%
(05:33) #30 R.Kingston punt 31 yards to the USF15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:1081% → 79%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
18.9%
(05:24) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USF24 (#44 A.Odom)Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
18.9%
(05:00) #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF26 (#52 E.Durham-Smith; #54 D.Garner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
19.5%
(04:20) #5 D.Crowther rush left for 4 yards gain to the USF30 (#10 A.Hines III)Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
19.9%
(03:37) #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 0 yards to the USF30 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
20.6%
PENALTY USF False Start (#79 E.Green) 5 yards from USF30 to USF25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
20.8%
(02:35) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #80 J.Porter thrown to BGSU40Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 11
OWN 25
-5
21.2%
(02:26) #39 L.Goater punt 49 yards to the BGSU26 #5 B.Ridley return 0 yards to the BGSU26 (#19 P.Ramil; #5 A.Jackson) PENALTY USF Illegal Motion (#40 G.Leach) 5 yards from USF25 to USF20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 16
OWN 20
+10
21.4%
(02:17) #39 L.Goater punt 49 yards to the BGSU31 #5 B.Ridley return 10 yards to the BGSU41 (#33 A.Mosley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0521% → 22%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
21.2%
(02:06) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU43 (#0 G.Howard)Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
21.7%
(01:25) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU43 (#9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+2
21.7%
(00:42) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #2 N.Amachree caught at BGSU44, for 2 yards to the BGSU45 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+27
21.7%
(14:58) #30 R.Kingston punt 39 yards to the USF16 #80 J.Porter return 27 yards to the USF43, out of bounds at USF43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4879% → 77%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
21.5%
(14:51) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #85 K.Caton caught at USF44, for 6 yards loss to the USF37 (#9 P.EstoEsta), out of bounds PENALTY USF Illegal Touch-Pass (#85 K.Caton) 6 yards from USF43 to USF37Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+10
23.7%
(13:03) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the USF47 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+2
22.6%
(13:03) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the USF49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
23.3%
(13:03) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Reuben thrown to BGSU40 broken up by #8 C.Lewis, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:3025% → 34%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
24.7%
(13:03) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep middle to #5 B.Ridley thrown to USF29Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
24.7%
(12:55) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU48, for 4 yards to the USF45 (#25 Z.Hamilton; #7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+8
25.2%
(12:09) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at USF41, for 8 yards to the USF37 (#9 I.Boyce; #25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
26.2%
(11:28) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 10 yards gain to the USF27 (#9 I.Boyce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
27.0%
(10:49) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USF28 (#8 A.Fortenberry; #77 M.Dillard)Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+9
27.8%
(10:06) #47 K.White rush right for 9 yards gain to the USF19 (#2 T.Ward; #25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+6
27.6%
(09:34) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USF13 (#98 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
28.9%
(08:56) #1 A.Dendy rush left for 4 yards gain to the USF09 (#16 T.Foster; #9 I.Boyce), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
30.2%
(08:14) #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #18 W.Sharp thrown to USF00 QB hurried by #4 M.Williams IISimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-1
29.8%
(08:08) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at USF12, for 1 yard loss to the USF10 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
33.5%
(07:29) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 07:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0268% → 65%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.7%
(07:26) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USF28 (#3 D.Pringle; #10 A.Hines III)Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
32.0%
(06:44) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 6 yards gain to the USF34 (#0 K.Pascal; #4 K.Kostus)Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
31.9%
(06:17) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USF41 (#48 Q.Lewis; #1 D.Braxton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
32.1%
(05:43) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the USF40 (#58 K.Thomas; #8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
33.3%
(05:07) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #47 E.Dangler thrown to USF38 broken up by #23 M.BradleySimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+5
34.5%
(05:04) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the USF45 (#26 J.Andrews)Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
35.3%
(04:17) #39 L.Goater punt 44 yards to the BGSU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1338% → 38%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
37.6%
(04:05) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 15 yards gain to the BGSU26 (#15 T.Beasley; #5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
39.0%
(03:24) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BGSU25 (#52 C.Smith)Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+2
39.3%
(02:40) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 2 yards gain to the BGSU27 (#18 L.Smiley; #11 A.Redwood)Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+3
38.6%
(02:00) Shotgun #4 K.Baldwin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU30 (#28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
38.0%
(01:54) #30 R.Kingston punt 38 yards to the USF32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:2963% → 66%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
36.9%
(01:44) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 7 yards to the USF25 (#23 M.Bradley, #88 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+14
39.2%
(00:58) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #6 M.Reuben caught at USF39, for 14 yards to the USF39 (#1 D.Braxton)Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
36.9%
(00:34) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the USF44 (#3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BGSU Personal Foul (#3 D.Pringle) 13 yards from USF44 to BGSU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.5%
(00:10) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to BGSU30Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-11
35.9%
(00:10) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 11 yards to the USF46 (#4 K.Kostus)Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+30
39.3%
(00:10) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 30 yards gain to the BGSU24 (#9 P.EstoEsta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+41
33.8%
(00:00) #7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 4:1062% → 54%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
38.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BGSU47 (#0 K.Pascal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
37.0%
(14:29) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Porter thrown to BGSU39 PENALTY USF Holding (#67 T.Shrader) 10 yards from BGSU47 to USF43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+9
40.1%
(14:24) #5 D.Crowther rush left for 9 yards gain to the BGSU48 (#26 J.Andrews)Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+14
39.0%
(13:40) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BGSU34 (#8 C.Lewis; #4 K.Kostus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
37.4%
(12:58) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BGSU40 (#23 M.Bradley)Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+1
41.5%
(12:16) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 1 yard gain to the BGSU39 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 15
OPP 39
-7
43.7%
(11:31) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BGSU46 (#23 M.Bradley)Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 22
OPP 46
0
46.1%
(10:44) #39 L.Goater punt 34 yards to the BGSU12, out of bounds at BGSU12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
15 plays · 46 yds · 6:3647% → 55%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
47.4%
(10:44) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU18 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+7
48.4%
(10:14) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BGSU25 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.2%
PENALTY USF Offside (#4 M.Williams II) 5 yards from BGSU25 to BGSU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
51.1%
(09:21) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU32 (#8 A.Fortenberry; #33 A.Mosley)Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
52.2%
(08:36) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU35 (#25 Z.Hamilton; #2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
51.8%
(07:50) #2 N.Amachree rush left for 2 yards loss to the BGSU33 (#7 S.Robinson; #2 T.Ward) PENALTY BGSU Holding (#65 G.Funk) 10 yards from BGSU35 to BGSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+16
51.8%
(07:35) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU32, for 16 yards to the BGSU41 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
55.9%
(06:50) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep middle to #5 B.Ridley thrown to USF20Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
54.8%
(06:45) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BGSU45, for 6 yards to the BGSU47 (#7 S.Robinson; #2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
57.2%
(06:04) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USF40 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
58.3%
(05:22) PENALTY BGSU False Start (#70 A.Harris) 5 yards from USF40 to USF45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
57.8%
(05:02) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy thrown to USF42 broken up by #9 I.BoyceSimilar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+3
57.6%
(04:56) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USF42 (#4 M.Williams II; #25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
57.4%
(04:07) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy thrown to USF42 QB hurried by #7 S.RobinsonSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
54.8%
(04:00) #30 R.Kingston punt 33 yards to the USF09 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:4047% → 41%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
53.5%
(04:00) #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF11 (#1 D.Braxton; #4 K.Kostus) PENALTY USF Holding (#78 C.Cook) 4 yards from USF09 to USF05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+4
54.0%
(03:39) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 4 yards gain to the USF09 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-2
55.4%
(02:53) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #80 J.Porter caught at USF07, for 2 yards loss to the USF07 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+11
58.3%
(02:11) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF18, for 11 yards to the USF18 (#9 P.EstoEsta)Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
58.7%
(01:23) #39 L.Goater punt 46 yards to the BGSU36 fair catch by #5 B.Ridley at BGSU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1666% → 66%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.7%
(01:20) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to USF46Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
65.2%
(01:12) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BGSU35 (#28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
64.1%
(00:25) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU39, for 10 yards to the BGSU45 (#8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-1
65.8%
(14:57) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BGSU44 (#11 A.Redwood; #7 S.Robinson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:4247% → 69%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.6%
(14:56) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 0 yards to the BGSU44 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
53.5%
(14:30) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 B.Rodgers caught at BGSU45, for 11 yards to the BGSU33 (#26 J.Andrews), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
51.6%
(13:59) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU28 (#26 J.Andrews; #5 E.George)Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+22
51.8%
(13:13) #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 22 yards gain to the BGSU06 (#0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
52.2%
(12:48) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BGSU02 (#0 J.Scoby; #9 P.EstoEsta)Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.4%
(12:11) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush right for 2 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:07 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:3739% → 38%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
38.8%
(12:01) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BGSU21 (#90 T.Jones)Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+13
39.1%
(11:25) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BGSU25, for 13 yards to the BGSU34 (#9 I.Boyce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
40.6%
(10:37) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 1 yard gain to the BGSU35 (#8 A.Fortenberry; #33 A.Mosley)Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-2
41.5%
(09:54) #4 K.Baldwin rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BGSU33 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-1
39.3%
(09:11) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 1 yard loss to the BGSU32 (#15 T.Beasley)Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
38.3%
(08:17) #30 R.Kingston punt 35 yards to the USF33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:3464% → 93%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
36.5%
(08:16) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 20 yards gain to the USF48 (#0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
33.4%
(07:37) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
31.5%
(06:58) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #47 E.Dangler thrown to BGSU24 QB hurried by #23 M.Bradley PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference (#0 K.Pascal) 5 yards from BGSU44 to BGSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
31.6%
(06:46) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at BGSU26, for 13 yards to the BGSU26 (#0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BGSU Roughing The Passer 13 yards from BGSU26 to BGSU13, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
29.6%
(06:06) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 6 yards gain to the BGSU07 (#48 Q.Lewis; #15 D.Banks)Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+6
29.7%
(05:49) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU01 (#0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.3%
(05:37) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:34 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20DOWNS
17 plays · 66 yds · 4:4313% → 7%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
12.7%
(05:28) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU22, for 11 yards to the BGSU29 (#33 A.Mosley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
13.1%
(05:00) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #1 A.Dendy caught at BGSU32, for 6 yards to the BGSU35 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+9
14.6%
(04:23) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU44, for 9 yards to the BGSU44, out of bounds at BGSU44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
15.3%
(03:58) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep left to #18 W.Sharp thrown to USF35Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
13.9%
(03:52) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy thrown to USF32Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+12
12.0%
(03:47) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #18 W.Sharp caught at USF45, for 12 yards to the USF44 (#25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
15.8%
(03:06) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #2 N.Amachree caught at USF44, for 5 yards to the USF39 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+5
11.5%
(02:21) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USF34 (#25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
13.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 6 yards gain to the USF28 (#15 T.Beasley; #25 Z.Hamilton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
14.8%
(01:52) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right thrown to USF17 QB hurried by #4 M.Williams IISimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+4
12.8%
(01:44) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at USF24, for 4 yards to the USF24 (#18 L.Smiley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
14.3%
(01:21) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at USF21, for 3 yards to the USF21 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
13.3%
(00:56) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy thrown to USF06 broken up by #5 A.JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-9
11.4%
(00:53) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USF30 (#11 A.Redwood)Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 16
OPP 30
+14
6.7%
(00:47) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at USF16, for 14 yards to the USF16 (#16 T.Foster), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0896% → 96%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
3.9%
(00:38) Kneel down by #3 M.Van Buren Jr. at USF15 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-1
4.1%
(00:37) Kneel down by #3 M.Van Buren Jr. at USF14 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-1
4.3%
(00:30) Kneel down by #3 M.Van Buren Jr. at USF13 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:34
(05:37) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:34 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)
-22.4
TD · Q4 12:07
(12:11) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush right for 2 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:07 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)
-20.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49
(14:56) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 0 yards to the BGSU44 (#3 D.Pringle)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com