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UL

Louisiana 34 at Charlotte 7

CLT
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:37 · (07:41) #49 M.Golding punt 38 yards to the CLT13 fair catch by #21 H.Rutledge at CLT13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense−13.0Pregame prior−10.7Score differential−6.8Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:59: (06:05) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #24 S.Blanco caught at CLT00, for 3 yards to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:59 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) PENALTY #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) PENALTY CLT Running Into The Kicker declined — UL win probability +7.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Jaylon Johnson 54 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Kelly Kick) — CLT win probability +9.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:11: (09:16) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 7 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) — UL win probability +8.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:55: (14:55) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 14:55 — UL win probability +6.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:48: (13:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CLT20 (#16 S.McIntosh) — UL win probability +6.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:13CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:45UL 4th & 4 at UL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:13CLT 4th & 17 at CLT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:29UL 4th & 1 at CLT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:58UL 4th & 9 at CLT 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:00CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:43UL 4th & 10 at UL 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:59CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:37UL 4th & 11 at UL 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:36CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 22, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:31UL 4th & 8 at UL 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:55UL 4th & 12 at CLT 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−7.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:01CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:49UL 4th & 1 at CLT 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−2.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−9.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:38CLT 4th & 6 at UL 26, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:03UL 4th & 6 at UL 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 5:59UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:24CLT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:11UL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:21UL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:33UL Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3824% → 25%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
24.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush left for 1 yard loss to the CLT34 (#68 F.West Jr.; #6 C.McPherson)Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
24.4%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Barnes thrown to CLT31 broken up by #11 B.Gordon Jr.Similar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
24.5%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short left to #4 T.Boston thrown to CLT40Similar
Q1 14:13
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
24.5%
(14:20) #44 I.Kelly punt 48 yards to the UL18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2876% → 75%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
24.5%
PENALTY UL False Start (#57 Z.Alexander) 5 yards from UL18 to UL13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+7
24.6%
(14:14) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #17 L.Strother caught at UL11, for 7 yards to the UL20 (#95 D.Ancrum)Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
24.7%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UL24 (#13 G.Willis; #1 J.Croft Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
25.1%
(13:17) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #17 L.Strother thrown to UL35 QB hurried by #13 G.WillisSimilar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+1
25.4%
(12:52) #49 M.Golding punt 38 yards to the CLT38 #21 H.Rutledge return 1 yard to the CLT39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2625% → 26%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
25.4%
(12:45) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales sacked for loss of 9 yards to the CLT30 (#2 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+2
25.6%
(12:10) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush right for 2 yards gain to the CLT32 (#6 C.McPherson; #41 C.Edwards)Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 17
OWN 32
0
25.8%
(11:25) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short right to #4 T.Boston thrown to UL50Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 17
OWN 32
+1
25.8%
(11:19) #44 I.Kelly punt 45 yards to the UL23 muffed by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at UL23 recovered by UL #26 K.Wilson at UL24, End Of Play PENALTY CLT Kick Catch Interference (#5 K.Alexander) 15 yards from UL24 to UL39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:0574% → 72%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
25.9%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 14 yards gain to the CLT47 (#19 K.Schmitz; #5 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
25.9%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush left for 9 yards gain to the CLT38 (#0 C.Gill; #2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+13
26.1%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #87 K.Brooks caught at CLT30, for 13 yards to the CLT25 (#18 C.Usher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
26.3%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 L.Strother rush left for 7 yards gain to the CLT18 (#19 K.Schmitz), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-2
26.4%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CLT20 (#5 J.Patterson)Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
27.1%
(08:12) Shotgun #15 J.Norris rush right for 4 yards gain to the CLT16 (#5 J.Patterson)Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+4
27.5%
(07:33) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #83 B.Chappell caught at CLT16, for 4 yards to the CLT12 (#0 C.Gill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
27.2%
(06:59) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 2 yards loss to the CLT14 (#13 G.Willis; #19 K.Schmitz)Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+3
27.5%
(06:23) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #88 C.Jensen caught at CLT11, for 3 yards to the CLT11 (#1 J.Croft Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
28.1%
(05:41) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 0 yards to the CLT11 (#19 K.Schmitz; #95 D.Ancrum)Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
28.3%
(04:58) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 04:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:4328% → 29%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
28.2%
(04:51) Shotgun #21 H.Rutledge rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CLT22 (#6 C.McPherson; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+6
28.6%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 H.Rutledge rush left for 6 yards gain to the CLT28 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
28.9%
(03:53) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #19 B.Dawyot caught at CLT29, for 5 yards to the CLT33 (#21 M.Eleam; #11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
29.4%
PENALTY CLT False Start (#1 J.Barnes) 5 yards from CLT33 to CLT28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
29.0%
(03:08) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #89 D.Eley caught at CLT33, for 6 yards to the CLT34 (#44 J.St. Andre; #15 N.Brown)Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+7
29.2%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CLT37, for 7 yards to the CLT41 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
29.8%
(01:55) Shotgun #21 H.Rutledge rush middle for 0 yards to the CLT41 (#68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
29.5%
(01:18) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Barnes thrown to CLT48 QB hurried by #8 K.JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
29.1%
(01:12) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete deep middle to #1 J.Barnes thrown to UL23 broken up by #11 B.Gordon Jr.Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
28.6%
(01:06) #44 I.Kelly punt 46 yards to the UL13 fair catch by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at UL13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:1070% → 69%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
29.6%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 0 yards to the UL13 (#1 J.Croft Jr.)Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+11
30.0%
(00:16) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #87 K.Brooks caught at UL17, for 11 yards to the UL24 (#5 J.Patterson; #3 D.Womack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
29.5%
(14:55) Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL29 (#1 J.Croft Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+6
29.3%
(14:20) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #83 B.Chappell caught at UL30, for 6 yards to the UL35 (#1 J.Croft Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.5%
(13:50) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep middle to #4 T.Chaney thrown to CLT20 broken up by #28 C.AllenSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
29.8%
(13:42) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL40 (#10 J.Wall III; #2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
29.5%
(12:54) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short left to #83 B.Chappell thrown to UL46Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+5
30.5%
PENALTY UL False Start (#26 K.Wilson) 5 yards from UL40 to UL35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
31.2%
(12:48) #49 M.Golding punt 33 yards to the CLT32, out of bounds at CLT32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4031% → 30%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
30.5%
(12:43) Shotgun #6 D.Perteet rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CLT31 (#17 T.Chikere)Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
30.5%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Hampton thrown to CLT43Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+9
29.9%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT36, for 9 yards to the CLT40 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+5
31.3%
(11:31) #44 I.Kelly punt 48 yards to the UL12 PENALTY CLT Illegal Motion (#4 T.Smith) 5 yards from CLT40 to CLT35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+36
30.2%
(11:15) #44 I.Kelly punt 48 yards to the UL17 #11 B.Gordon Jr. return 36 yards to the CLT47 (#44 A.Herndon) PENALTY CLT Holding (#17 G.McGee) 10 yards from CLT47 to CLT37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:5071% → 78%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
29.5%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #9 K.Wade caught at CLT39, for 4 yards to the CLT33 (#28 C.Allen)Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+10
28.9%
(10:20) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CLT23 (#28 C.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
28.8%
(09:45) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #9 K.Wade caught at CLT19, for 6 yards to the CLT17 (#18 C.Usher)Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+10
28.9%
(09:06) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Norris thrown to CLT00 QB hurried by #51 J.Solomon PENALTY UL Holding (#59 A.Martinez) 10 yards from CLT17 to CLT27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 14
OPP 27
0
29.8%
(08:59) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short left to #15 J.Norris thrown to CLT19Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 14
OPP 27
+15
31.0%
(08:54) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 15 yards gain to the CLT12 fumbled by #7 L.Winfield at CLT16 forced by #13 G.Willis recovered by UL #7 L.Winfield at CLT12, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
28.4%
(08:09) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 0 yards to the CLT12 (#88 D.White)Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
29.2%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 3 yards to the CLT15 (#13 G.Willis, #88 D.White)Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+8
30.1%
(06:52) Shotgun #11 D.Beale pass incomplete short middle to #87 K.Brooks thrown to CLT04 PENALTY CLT Roughing The Passer (#2 J.Johnson) 8 yards from CLT15 to CLT07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
29.4%
(06:47) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT03 (#0 C.Gill; #3 D.Womack)Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.0%
(06:05) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #24 S.Blanco caught at CLT00, for 3 yards to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:59 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) PENALTY #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) PENALTY CLT Running Into The Kicker declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5725% → 24%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
24.6%
(05:53) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #89 D.Eley caught at CLT24, for 4 yards to the CLT24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
25.0%
(05:22) Shotgun #21 H.Rutledge rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT28 (#6 C.McPherson) PENALTY CLT Holding (#50 R.Green) 10 yards from CLT24 to CLT14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+7
24.5%
(04:56) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #8 Z.Collick caught at CLT20, for 7 yards to the CLT21 (#6 C.McPherson; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
24.1%
(04:18) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales rush left for 4 yards gain to the CLT25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
23.9%
(03:39) #44 I.Kelly punt 43 yards to the UL32 fair catch by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at UL32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
14 plays · 22 yds · 3:0177% → 69%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
23.3%
(03:33) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UL25 (#35 J.Davis)Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+4
24.1%
(02:53) Shotgun #4 T.Chaney rush left for 4 yards gain to the UL29 (#1 J.Croft Jr.; #5 J.Patterson) PENALTY CLT Face Mask (#1 J.Croft Jr.) 15 yards from UL29 to UL44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
22.4%
(02:29) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short left to #17 L.Strother thrown to CLT41 PENALTY CLT Offside (#2 J.Johnson) 5 yards from UL44 to UL49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+10
22.1%
(02:22) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #87 K.Brooks caught at CLT36, for 16 yards to the CLT35 (#12 C.Clinkscales), out of bounds PENALTY UL Holding (#57 Z.Alexander) 10 yards from UL49 to UL39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+5
23.2%
(02:14) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UL44 (#55 S.Sangarie; #16 S.McIntosh)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
22.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #87 K.Brooks caught at CLT44, for 13 yards to the CLT43 (#28 C.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
22.2%
(01:47) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #0 D.Smith caught at CLT39, for 6 yards to the CLT37 (#10 J.Wall III)Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
20.6%
(01:11) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #4 T.Chaney caught at CLT41, for 3 yards to the CLT34 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
20.7%
(00:48) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 1 yard gain to the CLT33 (#13 G.Willis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
21.0%
PENALTY UL Delay Of Game 5 yards from CLT33 to CLT38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
21.5%
(00:45) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Jackson thrown to CLT10 broken up by #12 C.ClinkscalesSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+1
21.6%
(00:39) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #10 R.Babineaux caught at CLT40, for 1 yard to the CLT37 (#10 J.Wall III), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+54
31.3%
Jaylon Johnson 54 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Kelly Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
33.3%
(00:24) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UL17 (#7 D.Burgess)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:2867% → 79%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
32.9%
(14:52) Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UL27 (#19 K.Schmitz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
32.9%
(14:09) Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL29 (#19 K.Schmitz)Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+9
33.0%
(13:32) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #17 L.Strother caught at UL37, for 9 yards to the UL38 (#11 D.Williams II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
32.1%
(12:52) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush left for 4 yards loss to the UL34 (#13 G.Willis; #5 J.Patterson)Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+5
34.4%
(12:13) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush left for 5 yards gain to the UL39 (#1 J.Croft Jr.; #13 G.Willis), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+41
33.9%
(11:37) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #4 T.Chaney caught at CLT46, for 41 yards to the CLT20 (#22 K.Catoe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
30.6%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT18 (#88 D.White)Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+11
30.7%
(10:34) Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CLT07 (#3 D.Womack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
29.6%
(09:55) Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 0 yards to the CLT07 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
20.8%
(09:16) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 7 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:2322% → 23%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
22.0%
(09:05) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT25, for 18 yards to the CLT43 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
23.3%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT41, for 7 yards to the CLT50 fumbled by #1 J.Barnes at CLT49 forced by #11 B.Gordon Jr. recovered by UL #11 B.Gordon Jr. at CLT50, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5079% → 77%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
50
-1
21.2%
(08:32) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the UL49 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
21.3%
(07:54) Shotgun #15 J.Norris pass incomplete deep middle to #17 L.Strother thrown to CLT16Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
21.8%
(07:47) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep middle to #10 R.Babineaux thrown to CLT26Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
23.2%
(07:41) #49 M.Golding punt 38 yards to the CLT13 fair catch by #21 H.Rutledge at CLT13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5422% → 19%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
21.6%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT17 (#68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
21.8%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short middle to #5 K.Alexander caught at CLT18, for 5 yards to the CLT22 (#6 C.McPherson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
20.2%
(06:31) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 0 yards to the CLT22 (#6 C.McPherson; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
19.2%
(05:36) #44 I.Kelly punt 43 yards to the UL35 fair catch by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at UL35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5880% → 80%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
20.5%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #17 L.Strother caught at UL46, for 12 yards to the UL47 QB hurried by #8 C.Spencer (#28 C.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
18.8%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL48 (#88 D.White)Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+1
18.2%
(04:48) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL49 (#55 S.Sangarie)Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
18.4%
(04:07) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #4 T.Chaney caught at UL45, for 0 yards to the UL49 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
20.0%
(03:34) #49 M.Golding punt 37 yards to the CLT14 fair catch by #21 H.Rutledge at CLT14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
19.9%
(03:29) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass intercepted by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at CLT37, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18FG
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:2282% → 89%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
17.8%
(03:24) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #17 L.Strother caught at CLT33, for 4 yards to the CLT33 (#12 C.Clinkscales), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
17.0%
(02:47) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT29 (#7 D.Burgess)Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
17.8%
(02:04) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT25 (#98 E.Aliu-Otokiti; #95 D.Ancrum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
16.9%
(01:31) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right thrown to CLT17 QB hurried by #7 D.Burgess and #13 G.WillisSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
17.0%
(01:25) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush left for 5 yards loss to the CLT30 (#0 C.Gill)Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+3
18.0%
(00:39) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #0 D.Smith caught at CLT34, for 3 yards to the CLT27 (#19 K.Schmitz)Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
11.3%
(14:55) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 14:55Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3515% → 14%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
15.0%
(14:43) Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short right to #89 D.Eley caught at CLT14, for 1 yard loss to the CLT14 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+3
14.7%
(14:20) Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CLT18, for 3 yards to the CLT17 (#10 A.Demery)Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+7
14.1%
(13:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short right to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT21, for 7 yards to the CLT24 (#21 M.Eleam), out of bounds. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 1
OWN 24
-1
14.4%
(13:00) Shotgun #6 D.Perteet rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CLT23 (#8 K.Jackson; #11 B.Gordon Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:2792% → 98%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
7.8%
(13:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CLT20 (#16 S.McIntosh)Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
7.7%
(12:23) Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT16 (#10 J.Wall III; #7 D.Burgess)Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
7.2%
(11:35) Shotgun #0 D.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT14 (#7 D.Burgess)Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
7.7%
(10:55) #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT12 (#7 D.Burgess; #2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
6.3%
(10:09) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CLT09 (#1 J.Croft Jr.)Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
1.9%
(09:27) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 9 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:21, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21FUMBLE
13 plays · 45 yds · 2:432% → 2%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.4%
(09:21) Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short right to #3 L.Mauldin caught at CLT30, for 5 yards to the CLT30, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (09:21) Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short right to #3 L.Mauldin caught at CLT30, for 7 yards to the CLT32 (#44 J.St. Andre; #21 M.Eleam))Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
2.3%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CLT33, for 5 yards to the CLT35 (#10 A.Demery), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.3%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Barnes thrown to CLT35 broken up by #0 P.AsheSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
2.2%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short right to #21 H.Rutledge caught at CLT34, for 16 yards to the UL49 QB hurried by #15 N.Brown (#34 J.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.4%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short right to #1 J.Barnes caught at UL45, for 4 yards to the UL45 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
2.4%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Tucker thrown to UL45 broken up by #21 M.EleamSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
2.4%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass incomplete short right thrown to UL39 QB hurried by #21 M.EleamSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+15
2.4%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.Barnes thrown to UL00 PENALTY UL Roughing The Passer (#9 L.Williams) 15 yards from UL45 to UL30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.6%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Jeffares thrown to UL26Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
2.5%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at UL26, for 4 yards to the UL26 (#10 A.Demery)Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
2.2%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Hampton thrown to UL02 QB hurried by #0 P.AsheSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 6
OPP 26
-4
2.0%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Harrell rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UL30 fumbled by #15 C.Harrell at UL33 forced by #8 K.Jackson recovered by UL #3 M.Johnson at UL30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
1.7%
(06:35) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL36 (#30 S.Bowman)Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-2
1.5%
(06:00) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UL34 (#35 J.Davis)Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
1.4%
(05:16) Shotgun #11 D.Beale pass incomplete short right to #44 T.Gawlik thrown to UL34 broken up by #4 T.Smith QB hurried by #10 J.Wall IIISimilar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
1.4%
(05:11) #49 M.Golding punt 54 yards to the CLT12, out of bounds at CLT12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:371% → 1%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
1.3%
(05:05) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CLT15 (#68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
1.2%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.White pass incomplete deep right to #0 C.Pedro thrown to CLT35Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+8
1.2%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.White rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CLT23 fumbled by #10 J.White at CLT23 forced by #11 B.Gordon Jr. recovered by UL #15 N.Brown at CLT23, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:3899% → 100%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
1.1%
(04:18) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the CLT22 (#5 J.Patterson; #15 A.Tifase)Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+10
0.9%
(03:32) Shotgun #11 D.Beale pass complete short left to #22 A.Reagan Jr. caught at CLT21, for 10 yards to the CLT12 (#4 T.Smith; #16 S.McIntosh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
0.9%
(02:46) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CLT07 (#16 S.McIntosh; #98 E.Aliu-Otokiti)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+5
0.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #11 D.Beale rush left for 5 yards gain to the CLT02 (#23 D.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
0.7%
(01:22) #68 F.West Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CLT04 (#15 A.Tifase; #10 J.Wall III)Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.1%
(00:39) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:33 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Cobb rush left for 7 yards gain to the CLT32 (#7 E.Veal; #23 J.Moses)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
Jaylon Johnson 54 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Kelly Kick)
+9.7
TD · Q3 9:11
(09:16) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 7 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:11 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)
-8.9
TD · Q2 5:59
(06:05) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #24 S.Blanco caught at CLT00, for 3 yards to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:59 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) PENALTY #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) PENALTY CLT Running Into The Kicker declined
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com