Try the model
NAVY

Navy 20 at UAB 24

UAB
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2026 · Protective Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:09 · (11:13) #11 J.Carlson punt 37 yards to the UAB20 fair catch by #0 T.Mims at UAB20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense+2.6Pregame prior−3.6Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score differential+0.6Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:06: (11:10) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:06, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +6.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:00: (02:07) #44 N.Bartley field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 02:00 — NAVY win probability +5.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:11: (01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short left to #0 T.Mims caught at NAV45, for 56 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:11, 1ST DOWN #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop) — UAB win probability +12.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:24: (04:27) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +18.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:36: (10:45) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 48 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36, 1ST DOWN #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop) — UAB win probability +41.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:22UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:30NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:02NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:43UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:39NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:25UAB 4th & 7 at NAVY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:03NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.2%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:00NAVY 4th & 3 at UAB 17, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:09NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:11UAB 4th & 2 at UAB 28, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:56UAB 4th & 21 at UAB 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−5.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:01NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:42UAB 4th & 2 at NAVY 29, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−8.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:56UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:06NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:11UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:36UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2642% → 42%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
41.7%
(14:56) Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UAB13 (#94 X.Arrington)Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+11
41.8%
(14:27) #7 J.Simpkins rush left for 11 yards gain to the UAB24 (#3 I.Oniha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
42.0%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Simpkins rush right for 6 yards gain to the UAB30 (#4 S.Martin)Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
42.2%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short left to #1 C.Smith thrown to UAB30 broken up by #93 A.LyczekSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+1
42.2%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton rush right for 1 yard gain to the UAB31 (#16 G.Sessi), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+53
42.3%
(12:32) #46 O.Straw punt 53 yards to the NAV16 #23 C.Robinson return for loss of 1 yard to the NAV15 (#21 D.Fullbright)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 5:1158% → 56%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
42.5%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NAV21 (#3 I.Esonwune; #13 J.Jordan)Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
42.6%
PENALTY UAB Offside (#29 C.Cunningham) 5 yards from NAV21 to NAV26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
42.7%
(11:41) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAV31 (#35 M.Byard)Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
42.7%
(11:02) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV34 (#3 I.Esonwune; #5 D.Gulley)Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
42.9%
(10:22) #42 C.Cromer rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV35 (#3 I.Esonwune; #29 C.Cunningham)Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+2
43.4%
(09:36) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV37 (#35 M.Byard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
43.1%
(09:04) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NAV39 (#4 M.Dean)Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
43.1%
(08:24) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV40 (#35 M.Byard; #99 R.Macias)Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-4
43.4%
(07:43) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NAV33 (#4 M.Dean, #0 J.Pierce)Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
44.3%
(07:05) #11 J.Carlson punt 27 yards to the UAB40, out of bounds at UAB40 PENALTY UAB UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#24 D.Wilkinson) 15 yards from UAB40 to UAB25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0944% → 44%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.0%
(07:01) Shotgun #16 N.Rogers rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UAB28 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
44.2%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UAB29 (#18 W.Miller)Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
44.0%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short right to #2 R.Robinson II thrown to UAB33Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
43.6%
(05:50) #46 O.Straw punt 51 yards to the NAV20 #23 C.Robinson return 0 yards to the NAV20 (#21 D.Fullbright)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5756% → 55%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.2%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV21 (#35 M.Byard)Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-4
44.4%
(05:07) #8 J.Gutierrez sacked for loss of 4 yards to the NAV17 (#90 C.Spencer)Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+10
45.1%
(04:22) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 10 yards gain to the NAV27 (#13 J.Jordan)Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
45.5%
(03:41) #11 J.Carlson punt 13 yards to the NAV40, out of bounds at NAV40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:3346% → 53%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.3%
(03:39) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV40 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
46.4%
(03:08) No Huddle #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Brown thrown to NAV41Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+11
46.1%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #85 A.Ferguson caught at NAV30, for 11 yards to the NAV29 (#58 C.Cauley; #16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
47.2%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton sacked for loss of 2 yards to the NAV31 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+5
47.4%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAV26 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+16
47.4%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #1 C.Smith caught at NAV15, for 16 yards to the NAV10 (#4 S.Martin; #14 T.Gillis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
48.1%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 N.Rogers rush middle for 0 yards to the NAV10 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
53.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 10 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4249% → 57%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.4%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 5 yards gain to the NAV30 (#13 J.Jordan)Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
51.3%
(14:22) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV34 (#21 D.Fullbright)Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
51.6%
(13:48) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV38 (#23 M.Hrabowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
51.7%
(13:13) #15 E.Blouir rush right for 10 yards gain to the NAV48 (#11 A.McKenzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+42
51.3%
(12:37) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 42 yards gain to the UAB10 (#13 J.Jordan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
50.3%
(11:54) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UAB04 (#13 J.Jordan; #5 D.Gulley)Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.4%
(11:10) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:06, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:3348% → 52%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
47.5%
(11:06) Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UAB36 (#58 C.Cauley; #56 M.Parker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
48.3%
(10:34) Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UAB38 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
48.8%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #1 C.Smith caught at UAB45, for 7 yards to the UAB45 (#16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
49.4%
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UAB47 (#93 A.Lyczek), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
50.2%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UAB48 (#95 G.Willis; #8 A.Rose)Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+13
50.3%
(08:27) No Huddle #5 R.Burton pass complete short right to #6 K.Daniels caught at NAV40, for 13 yards to the NAV39 (#3 I.Oniha), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
50.9%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Simpkins rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NAV29 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
51.6%
(07:21) Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short middle to #0 T.Mims thrown to NAV23 broken up by #8 A.RoseSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
51.6%
(07:12) Shotgun #7 J.Simpkins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV26 (#56 M.Parker; #18 W.Miller)Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
51.1%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short left thrown to NAV20 QB hurried by #7 K.AbrahamSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
52.0%
(06:28) #39 J.Delange field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop), clock 06:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:1249% → 56%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.1%
(06:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush right for 4 yards gain to the NAV29 (#0 J.Pierce; #1 D.Sweeting)Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
50.8%
(05:46) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short left to #26 M.Barrow thrown to NAV40 broken up by #1 D.SweetingSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
51.9%
PENALTY NAV Delay Of Game (#8 J.Gutierrez) 5 yards from NAV29 to NAV24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
52.7%
(05:39) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 10 yards gain to the NAV34 (#1 D.Sweeting), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
52.5%
(05:08) No Huddle #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV37 (#4 M.Dean), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
51.3%
(04:38) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete deep right to #83 T.Brasfield caught at UAB30, for 39 yards to the UAB24 (#6 Q.Billingsley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.3%
(03:59) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 0 yards to the UAB24 (#4 M.Dean)Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
48.8%
(03:34) Shotgun #23 C.Robinson rush right for 3 yards gain to the UAB21 (#4 M.Dean)Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+4
49.6%
(02:49) Shotgun #23 C.Robinson rush left for 4 yards gain to the UAB17 (#35 M.Byard)Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
44.3%
(02:07) #44 N.Bartley field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 02:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:3750% → 64%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
49.7%
(01:55) Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #1 C.Smith caught at UAB35, for 16 yards to the UAB38 (#13 C.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
51.1%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #4 E.Reid caught at UAB44, for 6 yards to the UAB44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+56
64.0%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short left to #0 T.Mims caught at NAV45, for 56 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:11, 1ST DOWN #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 1:0039% → 42%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
60.9%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 16 yards gain to the NAV41 (#4 M.Dean), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.6%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete deep right to #83 T.Brasfield thrown to UAB32Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
59.4%
(00:39) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NAV49 (#0 J.Pierce)Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
59.4%
(00:32) No Huddle #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 5 yards gain to the UAB46 (#4 M.Dean; #29 C.Cunningham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
58.5%
(00:19) No Huddle #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short left to #40 V.Listorti thrown to UAB46Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+39
58.5%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete deep left to #40 V.Listorti caught at UAB07, for 39 yards to the UAB07 (#35 M.Byard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
57.2%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UAB14 (#0 J.Pierce)Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
61.2%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short left to #83 T.Brasfield thrown to UAB00 broken up by #1 D.SweetingSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
57.8%
(00:07) #44 N.Bartley field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry), clock 00:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
57.5%
(00:01) Kneel down by UAB at UAB24 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:4045% → 41%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAV30 (#35 M.Byard)Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
54.7%
(14:26) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NAV33 (#35 M.Byard; #90 C.Spencer)Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
55.2%
(13:44) #23 C.Robinson rush right for 8 yards gain to the NAV41 (#13 J.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
53.8%
(13:11) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 1 yard loss to the NAV40 (#1 D.Sweeting)Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
55.5%
(12:32) Shotgun #15 E.Blouir rush right for 2 yards gain to the NAV42 (#5 D.Gulley)Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+1
55.8%
(11:45) Shotgun #25 I.Bryant rush right for 1 yard gain to the NAV43 (#4 M.Dean), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
58.7%
(11:13) #11 J.Carlson punt 37 yards to the UAB20 fair catch by #0 T.Mims at UAB20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4760% → 60%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.2%
(11:08) Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short right to #4 E.Reid caught at UAB25, for 5 yards to the UAB25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
60.7%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UAB28 (#56 M.Parker; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
60.1%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 0 yards to the UAB28 (#93 A.Lyczek; #3 I.Oniha)Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+23
59.6%
(09:21) #46 O.Straw punt 42 yards to the NAV30 #23 C.Robinson return 23 yards to the UAB47 (#3 B.McReynolds)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:4044% → 63%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
55.6%
(09:09) No Huddle #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UAB44 (#35 M.Byard)Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
55.8%
(08:34) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UAB39 (#3 I.Esonwune)Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
55.9%
(08:00) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UAB36 (#29 C.Cunningham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
56.1%
(07:23) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete deep middle to #40 V.Listorti thrown to UAB04 broken up by #5 D.GulleySimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
56.3%
(07:15) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 1 yard loss to the UAB37 (#5 D.Gulley)Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+14
58.5%
(06:31) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #25 I.Bryant caught at UAB36, for 14 yards to the UAB23 (#13 J.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
54.9%
(05:57) #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short right to #26 M.Barrow thrown to UAB05 PENALTY UAB Holding (#5 D.Gulley) 10 yards from UAB23 to UAB13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
54.9%
(05:51) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UAB12 (#0 J.Pierce)Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+5
55.4%
(05:09) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UAB07 (#29 C.Cunningham)Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
37.0%
(04:27) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15INT
14 plays · 29 yds · 5:3444% → 44%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
43.8%
(04:18) Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UAB26 (#93 A.Lyczek; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
44.1%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass incomplete short middle to #1 C.Smith thrown to UAB32 QB hurried by #94 X.ArringtonSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+9
42.0%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short left to #0 T.Mims caught at UAB32, for 9 yards to the UAB35 (#7 K.Abraham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
44.2%
(03:05) Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short left to #44 S.Isacks caught at UAB36, for 6 yards to the UAB41 (#3 I.Oniha)Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
47.7%
(02:37) Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UAB47 (#8 A.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
47.8%
(01:57) No Huddle #5 R.Burton sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UAB40 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+6
44.0%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short right to #4 E.Reid caught at UAB45, for 6 yards to the UAB46 (#7 K.Abraham)Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+12
43.5%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short left to #87 S.Persson caught at NAV42, for 12 yards to the NAV42 (#7 K.Abraham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
49.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #5 R.Burton sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NAV49 (#56 M.Parker) PENALTY UAB Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 17
OPP 49
+11
45.8%
(14:18) Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #0 T.Mims caught at NAV38, for 11 yards to the NAV38 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+10
48.6%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAV37 (#56 M.Parker) PENALTY UAB Holding (#77 K.Cox) 10 yards from NAV38 to NAV48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 16
OPP 48
-2
43.9%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass intercepted by #16 G.Sessi at NAV21 #16 G.Sessi return 2 yards to the NAV23 (#1 C.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:2660% → 69%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
40.1%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 17 yards gain to the NAV40 (#35 M.Byard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
37.0%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short left to #26 M.Barrow caught at NAV40, for 12 yards to the UAB48 (#11 A.McKenzie), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
34.0%
(12:18) Shotgun #23 C.Robinson rush right for 9 yards gain to the UAB39 (#13 J.Jordan)Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
33.3%
(11:34) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 2 yards gain to the UAB37 (#5 D.Gulley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
31.4%
(10:54) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez sacked for loss of 15 yards to the NAV48 (#4 M.Dean), fumble by #8 J.Gutierrez recovered by UAB #90 C.Spencer at NAV48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
72.8%
(10:45) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 48 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36, 1ST DOWN #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2334% → 39%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.0%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 8 yards gain to the NAV33 (#3 I.Esonwune)Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
62.2%
(10:00) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 5 yards gain to the NAV38 (#6 Q.Billingsley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
63.8%
(09:48) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 12 yards gain to the NAV50 (#1 D.Sweeting), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
50
+5
60.5%
(09:04) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UAB45 (#0 J.Pierce)Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
60.7%
(08:23) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 3 yards gain to the UAB42 (#35 M.Byard)Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
60.7%
(07:46) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UAB39 (#29 C.Cunningham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
60.8%
(07:03) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 5 yards loss to the UAB44 fumbled by #26 M.Barrow at UAB44 forced by #4 M.Dean recovered by UAB #4 M.Dean at UAB44, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 3:5679% → 83%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
79.0%
(07:00) Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UAB46 (#95 G.Willis; #94 X.Arrington)Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
79.7%
(06:28) #2 R.Robinson II rush left for 6 yards gain to the NAV48 (#58 C.Cauley), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
81.7%
(05:45) No Huddle #2 R.Robinson II rush left for 4 yards gain to the NAV44 (#8 A.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
85.1%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Robinson II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV43 (#4 S.Martin)Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
86.4%
(04:23) #7 J.Simpkins rush left for 1 yard gain to the NAV42 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-13
86.1%
(03:45) Shotgun #5 R.Burton sacked for loss of 13 yards to the UAB45 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 21
OWN 45
+45
83.3%
(03:03) #46 O.Straw punt 45 yards to the NAV10 #23 C.Robinson return for loss of 1 yard to the NAV09 (#10 K.Wokomah)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:4824% → 19%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
75.6%
(02:54) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 14 yards gain to the NAV23 (#11 A.McKenzie), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
77.1%
(02:29) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 9 yards gain to the NAV32 (#24 D.Wilkinson)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
73.0%
(02:03) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAV37 (#35 M.Byard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.2%
(01:58) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete deep right to #83 T.Brasfield thrown to UAB33Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
75.5%
(01:55) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NAV42 (#3 I.Esonwune)Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
74.1%
PENALTY NAV False Start (#68 H.Smith II) 5 yards from NAV42 to NAV37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
80.6%
(01:11) #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short middle to #83 T.Brasfield thrown to NAV45 broken up by #35 M.ByardSimilar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
81.4%
(01:08) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete deep middle to #23 C.Robinson thrown to UAB10, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21MISSED FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1594% → 94%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
93.6%
(01:01) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NAV36 (#45 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
94.5%
(00:57) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NAV32 (#8 A.Rose)Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+3
94.8%
(00:51) Shotgun #5 R.Burton rush left for 3 yards gain to the NAV29 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
94.0%
(00:46) #39 J.Delange field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop), clock 00:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22END OF HALF
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:1210% → 9%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
89.8%
(00:43) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short left to #23 C.Robinson thrown to NAV44 QB hurried by #17 T.JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-7
90.4%
(00:35) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NAV22 (#0 J.Pierce)Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+4
91.2%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NAV19 (#4 M.Dean), fumble by #8 J.Gutierrez recovered by NAV #73 S.Crowley at NAV15 #73 S.Crowley return 4 yards to the NAV19 (#4 M.Dean)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:36
(10:45) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 48 yards gain to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:36, 1ST DOWN #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop)
+41.4
TD · Q3 4:24
(04:27) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:24, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
-18.4
TD · Q2 1:11
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short left to #0 T.Mims caught at NAV45, for 56 yards to the NAV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:11, 1ST DOWN #39 J.Delange kick attempt good (H: #20 B.Hargett, LS: #50 E.Bishop)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com