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DSU

Delaware State 17 at South Florida 59

USF
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:46 · #48 G.Chraibi punt 32 yards to the USF44 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior+16.8Home team on offense+36.7Score differential+29.6Garbage-time factor+10.7Blowout margin+16.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+14.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:17: Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush middle for 10 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#17 K.Nix) 15 yards from DSU00 to DSU03, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) — USF win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:00: #46 P.Fisher-Butler field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #48 G.Chraibi, LS: #62 T.Malone), clock 04:00 — DSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:18: Jaylin Terzado 20 Yd pass from Ui Ale (Patrick Fisher-Butler Kick) — DSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 10:39: Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 39 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:39, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) — USF win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:18: Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:18 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) — USF win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2DSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 8:39DSU 4th & 2 at USF 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:59USF 4th & 23 at USF 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:00DSU 4th & 5 at USF 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:03DSU 4th & 7 at USF 45, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 8:12DSU 4th & 14 at DSU 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:53DSU 4th & 8 at DSU 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:46DSU 4th & 11 at DSU 24, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:49DSU 4th & 1 at DSU 36, down 39
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:51USF 4th & 3 at DSU 3, up 39
    Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:11DSU 4th & 11 at DSU 16, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:40USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:47DSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:56USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:17USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:18DSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:39USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:18USF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:02USF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:56USF Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
98.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #8 W.Sullivan caught at USF31, for 8 yards to the USF36 (#1 W.Favors III; #17 K.Nix)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+27
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF45, for 27 yards to the DSU37 (#1 W.Favors III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #80 J.Porter caught at DSU38, for 16 yards to the DSU21 (#14 M.Connor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DSU Personal Foul (#14 M.Connor) 11 yard from DSU21 to DSU10, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 10 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:40, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:541% → 2%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
98.7%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short left to #6 T.Rone caught at DSU25, for 8 yards to the DSU26 (#16 T.Foster)Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-2
98.7%
Shotgun #2 K.Boykin rush middle for 2 yards loss to the DSU24 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+15
98.7%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short middle to #85 D.Smith caught at DSU30, for 15 yards to the DSU39 (#45 M.Oxley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.6%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray rush right for 6 yards gain to the DSU45 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+18
98.6%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray rush left for 18 yards gain to the USF37 (#16 T.Foster; #36 D.Bowden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
98.6%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short right to #6 T.Rone caught at USF32, for 8 yards to the USF29 (#6 R.Hill; #51 M.Harris)Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
98.6%
Shotgun #9 S.Boykins Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the USF29 (#15 T.Beasley; #56 T.Simmons Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
98.6%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Terzado thrown to USF30Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
98.3%
#46 P.Fisher-Butler field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD (H: #48 G.Chraibi, LS: #49 S.Carter), clock 08:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 3:4098% → 98%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
98.4%
PENALTY USF False Start 5 yards from USF29 to USF24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+2
98.4%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the USF26 (#24 C.Neos; #44 L.Campizta)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+6
98.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #6 M.Reuben caught at USF26, for 6 yards to the USF32 (#17 K.Nix; #7 L.Payne)Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+8
98.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USF40 (#44 L.Campizta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #6 M.Reuben thrown to DSU14Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
98.4%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush right for 11 yards gain to the DSU49 (#14 M.Connor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #0 C.Seldon thrown to DSU00Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
98.4%
PENALTY USF False Start (#85 K.Caton) 5 yards from DSU49 to USF46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
98.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right thrown to DSU35 QB hurried by #90 E.Martin IIISimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 15
OWN 46
-8
98.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 8 yards to the USF38 (#4 C.Nesmith)Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 23
OWN 38
0
98.0%
#39 L.Goater punt 52 yards to the DSU10 fair catch by #16 R.Pellum Taylor at DSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
97.6%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short middle to #11 N.Stewart caught at DSU20, for 90 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:47, 1ST DOWN #46 P.Fisher-Butler kick attempt good (H: #48 G.Chraibi, LS: #62 T.Malone)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.7%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #4 A.Branch caught at USF23, for 8 yards to the USF33 (#14 M.Connor)Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
97.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 8 yards gain to the USF41 (#44 L.Campizta; #98 Q.Rainey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
97.7%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF36, for 21 yards to the DSU38 (#24 C.Neos), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
97.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 38 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:56, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 6FUMBLE
13 plays · 23 yds · 6:162% → 3%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
97.7%
Shotgun #6 T.Rone rush right for 9 yards loss to the DSU09 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+10
97.8%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short right to #0 J.Terzado caught at DSU19, for 10 yards to the DSU19 (#16 T.Foster)Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+13
97.8%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short middle to #6 T.Rone caught at DSU25, for 13 yards to the DSU32 (#15 T.Beasley; #5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.7%
Shotgun #4 J.Jenkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DSU37 (#90 T.Jones; #2 T.Ward)Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
94.4%
Shotgun #4 J.Jenkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DSU42 (#5 A.Jackson; #7 S.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
97.3%
#9 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 5 yards loss to the DSU37 (#7 S.Robinson) PENALTY DSU Illegal Shift declinedSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+15
97.5%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short right to #9 S.Boykins Jr. caught at DSU31, for 15 yards to the USF48 (#2 T.Ward), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
97.3%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF46 (#16 T.Foster)Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-2
97.3%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray rush right for 2 yards loss to the USF48 (#9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-11
97.0%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale sacked for loss of 11 yards to the DSU41 (#45 M.Oxley), fumble by #15 U.Ale recovered by USF #28 R.Jenkins at DSU41, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1897% → 98%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
97.2%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at DSU44, for 3 yards loss to the DSU44, out of bounds at DSU44Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 13
OPP 44
0
97.1%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to DSU47Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+16
97.1%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #80 J.Porter caught at DSU28, for 16 yards to the DSU28 (#5 G.Fabian; #14 M.Connor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.3%
#5 D.Crowther rush right for 4 yards gain to the DSU24 (#17 K.Nix; #10 A.Harris)Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+11
97.1%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #5 D.Crowther caught at DSU28, for 11 yards to the DSU13 (#5 G.Fabian; #10 A.Harris), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
97.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DSU10 (#14 M.Connor)Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
97.9%
Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush middle for 10 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#17 K.Nix) 15 yards from DSU00 to DSU03, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 84 yds · 4:162% → 3%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
97.7%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short left to #2 K.Boykin caught at DSU11, for 11 yards to the DSU22 (#2 T.Ward), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USF Personal Foul (#2 T.Ward) 15 yards from DSU22 to DSU37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
97.7%
Shotgun #22 S.Weston Jr rush middle for 12 yards gain to the DSU49 (#7 S.Robinson; #9 I.Boyce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
97.6%
Shotgun #22 S.Weston Jr rush left for 2 yards loss to the DSU47 (#10 S.Meikle)Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+50
97.7%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale rush left for 50 yards gain to the USF03 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
97.4%
Shotgun #9 S.Boykins Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the USF05 (#5 A.Jackson; #25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.4%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray rush left for 0 yards to the USF05 (#15 T.Beasley; #33 A.Mosley)Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.5%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass incomplete short left to #7 J.Kelley thrown to USF00 QB hurried by #11 A.RedwoodSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
96.7%
#46 P.Fisher-Butler field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #48 G.Chraibi, LS: #62 T.Malone), clock 04:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:5597% → 97%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
96.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #6 M.Reuben thrown to USF48Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
96.8%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the USF35 (#10 A.Harris; #4 C.Nesmith) PENALTY DSU Offside (#11 N.Stewart) 5 yards from USF33 to USF38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
97.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF34, for 5 yards to the USF43 (#24 C.Neos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #8 W.Sullivan caught at USF48, for 8 yards to the DSU49 fumbled by #8 W.Sullivan at USF50 forced by #1 W.Favors III recovered by DSU #17 K.Nix at DSU49 #17 K.Nix return 3 yards to the USF48 (#6 M.Reuben)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:384% → 7%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
96.5%
PENALTY DSU False Start (#7 J.Kelley) 5 yards from USF48 to DSU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+12
96.8%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short left to #11 N.Stewart caught at USF41, for 12 yards to the USF41, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
96.5%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short left to #16 R.Pellum Taylor caught at USF35, for 6 yards to the USF35 (#23 C.Hawkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.5%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass incomplete short middle to #11 N.Stewart thrown to USF35 QB hurried by #33 A.MosleySimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
95.5%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short middle to #6 T.Rone caught at USF25, for 15 yards to the USF20 (#25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.9%
Jaylin Terzado 20 Yd pass from Ui Ale (Patrick Fisher-Butler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 1:1295% → 96%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #6 M.Reuben thrown to USF44Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+17
94.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF42, for 17 yards to the USF45 (#29 D.Gibson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right thrown to DSU50 QB hurried by #4 C.NesmithSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
95.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at DSU43, for 14 yards to the DSU41 (#29 D.Gibson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
95.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #5 D.Crowther caught at DSU35, for 29 yards to the DSU12 (#29 D.Gibson; #20 T.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Reuben thrown to DSU00. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+10
95.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at DSU08, for 10 yards to the DSU02 (#1 W.Favors III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.0%
Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DSU01 (#98 Q.Rainey)Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.7%
#5 D.Crowther rush left for 0 yards to the DSU01 (#24 C.Neos; #20 T.White)Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.9%
Luke Kromenhoek 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:574% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Shotgun #4 J.Jenkins rush left for 0 yards to the DSU28 (#25 Z.Hamilton; #7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+13
96.0%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short right to #0 J.Terzado caught at DSU30, for 13 yards to the DSU41 (#8 A.Fortenberry; #16 T.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
95.7%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short left to #7 J.Kelley caught at DSU42, for 11 yards to the USF48 (#25 Z.Hamilton; #8 A.Fortenberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Rone thrown to USF44 broken up by #16 T.FosterSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
95.6%
PENALTY DSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from USF48 to DSU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
95.9%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass incomplete short right to #11 N.Stewart thrown to USF50 QB hurried by #10 S.MeikleSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+8
96.0%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale rush right for 8 yards gain to the USF45 (#5 A.Jackson). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down prior to losing the ball". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #15 U.Ale rush right for 8 yards gain to the USF45 fumbled by #15 U.Ale at USF44 forced by #28 R.Jenkins recovered by USF #2 T.Ward at USF45, End Of Play)Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+6
95.9%
Shotgun #9 S.Boykins Jr. rush left for 6 yards gain to the USF39 (#2 T.Ward), out of bounds, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:2496% → 98%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
96.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USF38 (#98 Q.Rainey; #4 C.Nesmith)Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+23
96.2%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #0 C.Seldon caught at USF35, for 23 yards to the DSU39 (#14 M.Connor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Porter thrown to DSU29Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 39 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:39, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:273% → 2%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.4%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short right to #16 R.Pellum Taylor caught at DSU30, for 6 yards to the DSU31 (#35 H.Perry Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
97.3%
Shotgun #22 S.Weston Jr rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DSU37 (#5 A.Jackson; #28 R.Jenkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
97.3%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass complete short right to #22 S.Weston Jr caught at DSU28, for 4 yards loss to the DSU33 (#15 T.Beasley; #25 Z.Hamilton) PENALTY DSU Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
97.5%
Shotgun #22 S.Weston Jr rush right for 0 yards to the DSU33 (#28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Shotgun #15 U.Ale pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Rone thrown to DSU45 broken up by #25 Z.Hamilton QB hurried by #11 A.RedwoodSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
97.9%
#48 G.Chraibi punt 42 yards to the USF25 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:5498% → 100%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.4%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 11 yards gain to the USF36 (#24 C.Neos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
98.5%
#3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at USF46, for 10 yards to the USF46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
98.5%
#0 C.Seldon rush left for 6 yards gain to the DSU48 (#14 M.Connor)Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+18
98.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #80 J.Porter caught at DSU30, for 18 yards to the DSU30 (#17 K.Nix; #24 C.Neos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
98.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #47 E.Dangler caught at DSU25, for 15 yards to the DSU15 (#14 M.Connor; #44 L.Campizta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
98.5%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DSU09 (#17 K.Nix)Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+4
98.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at DSU10, for 4 yards to the DSU05 (#24 C.Neos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:18 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:191% → 0%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.4%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Rone thrown to DSU35Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.4%
Shotgun #2 K.Boykin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the DSU26 (#4 M.Williams II; #51 M.Harris)Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+3
99.4%
Shotgun #2 K.Boykin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DSU29 (#6 R.Hill; #11 A.Redwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.4%
Shotgun #2 K.Boykin rush right for 2 yards gain to the DSU31 (#11 A.Redwood)Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray pass incomplete short right to #11 N.Stewart thrown to DSU35Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Rone thrown to DSU35 broken up by #15 T.BeasleySimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+9
99.6%
#48 G.Chraibi punt 34 yards to the USF35 #80 J.Porter return 9 yards to the USF44 (#21 M.Burns), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.7%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF41, for 9 yards to the DSU47 (#6 J.Banks), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+8
99.7%
Shotgun #15 A.Isaac rush middle for 8 yards gain to the DSU39 (#35 M.Williams; #30 L.Stuckey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
99.7%
#3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at DSU23, for 23 yards to the DSU16 (#21 M.Burns), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.7%
Shotgun #15 A.Isaac rush right for 2 yards gain to the DSU14 (#6 J.Banks)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+9
99.7%
Shotgun #15 A.Isaac rush middle for 9 yards gain to the DSU05 (#20 T.White; #30 L.Stuckey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at DSU08, for 5 yards to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:02 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Shotgun #27 T.Engram rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DSU27 (#8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
100.0%
Shotgun #27 T.Engram rush right for 2 yards loss to the DSU25 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
Shotgun #13 J.Sauray rush left for 1 yard loss to the DSU24 (#29 D.Platt; #9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
#48 G.Chraibi punt 32 yards to the USF44 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
99.9%
Shotgun #22 C.Garnett rush right for 5 yards gain to the USF49 (#42 R.Brown; #52 T.Mobley Jr), out of bounds PENALTY USF Holding (#54 B.Carter) 10 yards from USF44 to USF34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+9
99.9%
Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek pass complete short right to #15 A.Isaac caught at USF31, for 9 yards to the USF43 (#30 L.Stuckey)Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+12
99.9%
Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek pass complete short right to #18 K.Odom caught at USF38, for 12 yards to the DSU45 (#35 M.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Shotgun #22 C.Garnett rush middle for 45 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:56, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
Shotgun #19 N.Brannock rush right for 6 yards gain to the DSU33 (#6 R.Hill; #23 C.Hawkins Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Shotgun #19 N.Brannock rush left for 2 yards gain to the DSU35 (#13 M.Ziglar)Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
100.0%
Shotgun #19 N.Brannock pass complete short left to #84 D.Jackson caught at DSU35, for 1 yard to the DSU36 (#12 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
100.0%
#48 G.Chraibi punt 40 yards to the USF24 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:58100% → 100%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+35
100.0%
Shotgun #24 T.Kinkle rush right for 35 yards gain to the DSU41 (#21 M.Burns), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
100.0%
Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush right for 3 yards gain to the DSU38 (#90 E.Martin III; #38 J.Cole Jr)Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
100.0%
Shotgun #24 T.Kinkle rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DSU32 (#28 E.Arnold)Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+14
100.0%
Shotgun #24 T.Kinkle rush right for 14 yards gain to the DSU18 (#28 E.Arnold), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
100.0%
Shotgun #24 T.Kinkle rush left for 10 yards gain to the DSU08 (#36 M.Ricks; #42 R.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
100.0%
Shotgun #24 T.Kinkle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DSU06 (#99 A.Armitage)Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
100.0%
Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush right for 3 yards gain to the DSU03 (#28 E.Arnold; #31 T.Eldridge)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
100.0%
Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek pass incomplete short middle to #85 K.Caton thrown to DSU00Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
100.0%
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 01:51Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
100.0%
Shotgun #19 N.Brannock rush middle for 3 yards loss to the DSU14 (#99 J.Grant)Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+2
100.0%
Shotgun #34 P.Kamdem rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DSU16 (#12 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
100.0%
Shotgun #19 N.Brannock pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Dominguez thrown to DSU10 QB hurried by #15 T.BeasleySimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
100.0%
#48 G.Chraibi punt 33 yards to the DSU49 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at DSU49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
100.0%
Kneel down by #17 L.Kromenhoek at DSU50 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:18
Jaylin Terzado 20 Yd pass from Ui Ale (Patrick Fisher-Butler Kick)
-2.6
TD · Q3 10:39
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 39 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:39, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)
+2.1
TD · Q3 3:18
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:18 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com