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WMU

Western Michigan 28 at Rice 21

RICE
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:58 · (07:58) #25 R.Millmore punt 37 yards to the Rice20, out of bounds at Rice20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior−3.6Home team on offense−20.8Garbage-time factor−9.0Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:04: (05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:04 #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler) — RICE win probability +11.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:48: (01:48) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #2 A.Chenault caught at Rice00, for 34 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48, 1ST DOWN #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle) — WMU win probability +12.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:15: (09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler) — RICE win probability +17.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:19: (14:19) #6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:19 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle) — WMU win probability +19.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:54: (01:54) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:54 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle) — WMU win probability +11.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:04WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:06WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:01RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:29WMU 4th & 1 at RICE 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−0.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:22RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:49WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:01WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 48, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:46RICE 4th & 4 at WMU 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%−0.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:49RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 37, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:58WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:31RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.6%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:09RICE 4th & 6 at WMU 22, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:29WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:04RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:48WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:15RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:19WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:54WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:09RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4275% → 74%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.8%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #15 A.Parks caught at WMU26, for 1 yard to the WMU26 (#3 K.Akui)Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
25.1%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 6 yards gain to the WMU32 (#10 K.Condoll)Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
25.4%
(13:36) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU34 (#6 D.Stephens; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
25.7%
(13:04) #25 R.Millmore punt 45 yards to the Rice21 fair catch by #13 M.Mosey at Rice21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1626% → 26%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+1
26.0%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush left for 1 yard gain (1) to the Rice22 (#41 Z.Tibbs; #94 A.Tounkara) PENALTY WMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#41 Z.Tibbs) 15 yards from Rice22 to Rice37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
26.0%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice41 (#14 D.McCullough)Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
26.3%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 0 yards to the Rice41 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
26.4%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left to #0 P.Matthews thrown to WMU44Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
26.3%
(11:41) #29 C.Durkin punt 39 yards to the WMU20 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3174% → 72%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.3%
(11:37) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #2 A.Chenault thrown to WMU22Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
26.4%
(11:29) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 13 yards gain to the WMU33 (#3 K.Akui), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
26.7%
(10:53) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU34 (#16 C.Nwajuaku; #94 B.Bays)Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
26.9%
(10:10) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #8 E.Nelson thrown to WMU42Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+15
27.2%
(10:02) PENALTY Rice Roughing The Passer (#16 C.Nwajuaku) 15 yards from WMU34 to WMU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
26.9%
(09:39) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #80 H.Hughes thrown to Rice40 QB hurried by #96 D.BottsSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
27.0%
(09:34) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 2 yards gain to the Rice49 (#16 C.Nwajuaku; #12 J.Benjamin)Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-3
27.3%
(08:53) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #24 O.Mataele caught at Rice45, for 3 yards loss to the WMU48 fumbled by #24 O.Mataele at Rice45 forced by #7 A.Brown recovered by WMU #24 O.Mataele at WMU48 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
28.2%
(08:06) #25 R.Millmore punt 39 yards to the Rice13 fair catch by #13 M.Mosey at Rice13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5728% → 29%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
28.1%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice15 (#47 D.Moon; #4 A.Alexander)Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+5
28.2%
PENALTY Rice False Start (#67 L.Needham) 5 yards from Rice15 to Rice10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+25
28.4%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete deep middle to #0 P.Matthews caught at Rice32, for 25 yards to the Rice35 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
28.8%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice39 (#94 A.Tounkara; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
29.4%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice41 (#14 D.McCullough; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-6
29.7%
(05:46) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short middle to #19 J.Clark caught at Rice38, for 6 yards loss to the Rice35 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
29.0%
(05:01) #29 C.Durkin punt 45 yards to the WMU20 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:2070% → 74%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.6%
(04:52) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 0 yards to the WMU20 (#10 K.Condoll; #7 A.Brown)Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+66
29.9%
(04:09) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 66 yards gain to the Rice14 (#3 K.Akui; #12 J.Benjamin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
28.8%
(03:32) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice10 (#44 C.King; #57 A.Clemmons)Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
29.1%
(02:50) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 4 yards gain to the Rice06 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
29.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Rice05 (#98 R.Rooks; #96 D.Botts)Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
26.0%
(01:29) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 5 yards gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:29, 1ST DOWN #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5527% → 27%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.8%
(01:21) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush right for 2 yards gain to the Rice27 (#22 A.Louis; #96 D.Gustwiller)Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
27.0%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Rice41 (#18 M.Davis; #22 A.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
27.9%
(00:02) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Rice44 (#8 J.Sims; #96 D.Gustwiller)Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
28.0%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice45 (#42 G.Welch)Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
27.7%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the Rice45 (#0 B.Anes; #18 M.Davis)Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 6
OWN 45
-5
27.0%
(13:22) #29 C.Durkin punt 45 yards to the WMU10 muffed by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU10 recovered by WMU #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU05, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:2473% → 72%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
27.2%
(13:16) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 7 yards gain to the WMU12 (#33 S.Combs; #7 A.Brown)Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+7
27.1%
(12:39) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 7 yards gain to the WMU19 (#18 A.Ogbor; #57 A.Clemmons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-14
27.2%
(11:54) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 14 yards to the WMU05 (#57 A.Clemmons), fumble by #12 B.Lowry recovered by WMU #73 B.Roebuck at WMU05, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 24
OWN 5
+8
27.7%
(11:07) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 8 yards gain to the WMU13 (#7 A.Brown; #16 C.Nwajuaku)Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 16
OWN 13
+14
28.5%
(10:25) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 14 yards gain to the WMU27 (#44 C.King; #12 J.Benjamin)Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
28.4%
(09:49) #25 R.Millmore punt 54 yards to the Rice19 fair catch by #13 M.Mosey at Rice19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:3028% → 41%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
28.1%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 29 yards gain to the Rice48 (#18 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
29.7%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU46 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.; #14 D.McCullough)Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
30.4%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU45 (#14 D.McCullough; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-2
29.6%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 2 yards loss to the WMU47 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 5
OPP 47
+15
28.4%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Grice thrown to WMU39 PENALTY WMU Roughing The Passer (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.) 15 yards from WMU47 to WMU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
31.0%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU30 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+12
31.2%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short right to #6 B.Grice caught at WMU27, for 12 yards to the WMU18 (#13 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
31.3%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU15 (#6 J.Pope; #7 G.Carter)Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+13
30.1%
(05:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 13 yards gain to the WMU02 (#22 A.Louis; #14 D.McCullough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.4%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:04 #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0766% → 78%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.3%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU37 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #12 J.Benjamin)Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
34.5%
(04:21) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU40 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
34.5%
(03:39) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU46 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #12 J.Benjamin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-9
33.5%
(03:04) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WMU37 (#56 S.Clarke)Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+14
36.2%
(02:21) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #2 A.Chenault caught at WMU35, for 14 yards to the Rice49 (#25 C.VerMaas)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+15
33.5%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (#12 J.Benjamin) 15 yards from Rice49 to Rice34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
21.8%
(01:48) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #2 A.Chenault caught at Rice00, for 34 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48, 1ST DOWN #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:5327% → 27%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
27.1%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 11 yards gain to the Rice26 (#0 B.Anes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
27.7%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep middle to #81 B.Walker thrown to WMU50 broken up by #6 J.PopeSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
27.3%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short middle to #7 B.Jackson Jr. caught at Rice35, for 11 yards to the Rice37 (#18 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
28.2%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #81 B.Walker thrown to Rice50Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
28.0%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Rice36 (#10 J.Betts; #98 D.Frazier)Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
26.9%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short right to #6 B.Grice thrown to Rice45Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+6
26.6%
(00:50) #29 C.Durkin punt 40 yards to the WMU24 #5 K.Gouldsby return 6 yards to the WMU30 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #19 J.Clark)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11END OF HALF
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:2775% → 72%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
25.2%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU35, for 5 yards to the WMU35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
24.7%
(00:24) PENALTY WMU Illegal Snap (#8 E.Nelson) 5 yards from WMU35 to WMU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
26.4%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #2 A.Chenault caught at WMU44, for 14 yards to the WMU44 (#10 K.Condoll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
24.6%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Western Mich. pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
24.8%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #24 O.Mataele caught at WMU44, for 2 yards to the WMU46 (#44 C.King)Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+2
25.0%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU48, for 2 yards to the WMU48 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
28.4%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep middle to #8 E.Nelson thrown to Rice04 broken up by #18 A.Ogbor, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3827% → 49%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.2%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Rice26 (#14 D.McCullough; #9 W.Gerig)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
27.2%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 2 yards gain to the Rice28 (#9 W.Gerig; #26 K.Crump)Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
26.4%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short middle to #81 B.Walker caught at Rice38, for 11 yards to the Rice39 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
28.3%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Rice44 (#12 D.Moore; #26 K.Crump)Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+13
29.5%
(12:33) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 13 yards gain to the WMU43, out of bounds at WMU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
30.4%
(12:01) Shotgun #19 J.Clark rush left for 4 yards gain to the WMU39 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+11
30.6%
(11:25) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short middle to #7 B.Jackson Jr. caught at WMU28, for 11 yards to the WMU28 (#26 K.Crump), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
31.9%
(10:48) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU23 (#90 J.Benson; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
32.0%
(10:17) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU17 (#12 D.Moore; #90 J.Benson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
31.2%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 M.Mosey rush right for 16 yards gain to the WMU01 (#6 J.Pope; #13 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.7%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0149% → 46%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
49.1%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU31 (#14 D.McCullough; #94 A.Tounkara)Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
49.2%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short right to #7 B.Jackson Jr. thrown to WMU24Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+3
47.6%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU28 (#47 D.Moon; #12 D.Moore)Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
45.9%
(07:46) #28 E.Gota field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler), clock 07:46, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
17 plays · 72 yds · 8:1860% → 82%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
40.2%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU30 (#7 A.Brown; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
40.6%
(07:03) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU33 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+13
41.3%
(06:21) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU44, for 13 yards to the WMU46 (#12 J.Benjamin; #10 K.Condoll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
38.2%
(05:40) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Rice49 (#96 D.Botts)Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
37.9%
(05:07) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at Rice45, for 7 yards to the Rice42 (#12 J.Benjamin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
37.5%
(04:32) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 9 yards gain to the Rice33 (#2 J.Chavez; #3 K.Akui)Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
35.7%
(03:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #88 N.Levicki thrown to Rice20Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
37.4%
(03:49) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Rice30 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #2 J.Chavez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
36.4%
(03:14) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #15 A.Parks caught at Rice29, for 10 yards to the Rice20 (#54 A.Harnetiaux), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
36.1%
(02:32) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 8 yards gain to the Rice12 (#7 A.Brown; #12 J.Benjamin) PENALTY WMU Illegal Block in Back (#8 E.Nelson) 10 yards from Rice12 to Rice22Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+4
37.0%
(02:10) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #7 B.Brooks caught at Rice22, for 4 yards to the Rice18 ()Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+3
38.8%
(01:35) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Rice15 (#2 J.Chavez; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+8
38.4%
(00:54) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #1 E.Littlejohn caught at Rice10, for 8 yards to the Rice07 (#2 J.Chavez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
36.7%
(00:34) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 4 yards gain to the Rice03 (#44 C.King; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
37.1%
(14:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice01 (#3 K.Akui)Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.7%
(14:19) #6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:19 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:1924% → 23%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
23.9%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 5 yards gain to the Rice25 (#10 J.Betts; #0 B.Anes)Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
24.5%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Rice31 (#7 G.Carter; #10 J.Betts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
24.7%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Rice35 (#42 G.Welch; #0 B.Anes)Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
25.4%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice37 (#10 J.Betts; #42 G.Welch)Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
24.8%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 0 yards to the Rice37 (#22 A.Louis; #10 J.Betts)Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+3
22.9%
(10:48) #29 C.Durkin punt 51 yards to the WMU12 #5 K.Gouldsby return 3 yards to the WMU15 (#19 J.Clark; #23 C.Bruce)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:4479% → 81%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
20.6%
(10:42) #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #8 E.Nelson caught at WMU15, for 5 yards to the WMU20 (#10 K.Condoll)Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+23
18.6%
(10:12) #24 O.Mataele rush right for 23 yards gain to the WMU43 (#12 J.Benjamin; #7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
15.5%
(09:29) #24 O.Mataele rush left for 1 yard gain to the WMU44 (#57 A.Clemmons; #8 J.Mutombo)Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-1
15.3%
(08:45) #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WMU43 (#98 R.Rooks; #13 T.May)Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
16.0%
(08:06) #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep right to #7 B.Brooks thrown to Rice27Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
18.7%
(07:58) #25 R.Millmore punt 37 yards to the Rice20, out of bounds at Rice20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2222% → 18%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.9%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep middle to #7 B.Jackson Jr. thrown to Rice45Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
21.7%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Rice27 (#9 W.Gerig; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
21.6%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the Rice27 (#9 W.Gerig; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
18.4%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short right to #26 T.Byars thrown to Rice33 broken up by #94 A.Tounkara QB hurried by #2 S.Gardner, Jr., TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:2887% → 99%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
12.7%
(06:25) #6 J.Buckley rush left for 2 yards gain to the Rice25 (#56 S.Clarke; #94 B.Bays)Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+9
11.6%
(05:38) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Rice16 (#7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
10.0%
(04:54) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Rice15 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+3
9.7%
(04:09) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Rice12 (#56 S.Clarke; #57 A.Clemmons)Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+9
8.6%
(03:19) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 9 yards gain to the Rice03 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #10 K.Condoll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
7.5%
(02:31) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Rice01 (#57 A.Clemmons; #98 R.Rooks)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.8%
(01:55) #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 0 yards to the Rice01 (#94 B.Bays; #96 D.Botts)Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.5%
(01:54) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:54 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 1:242% → 11%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
2.2%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 8 yards gain to the Rice22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+10
2.2%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #19 J.Clark caught at Rice27, for 10 yards to the Rice32 (#12 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
2.2%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 7 yards gain to the Rice39, out of bounds at Rice39Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+7
2.3%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 7 yards gain to the Rice46, out of bounds at Rice46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
2.3%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 11 yards gain to the WMU43 (#4 A.Alexander; #26 K.Crump), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
2.4%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short middle to #19 J.Clark caught at WMU37, for 17 yards to the WMU26 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
2.9%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown sacked for loss of 4 yards to the WMU30 (#94 A.Tounkara)Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+5
1.4%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #13 M.Mosey caught at WMU26, for 5 yards to the WMU25 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+3
1.3%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #7 B.Jackson Jr. caught at WMU22, for 3 yards to the WMU22 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+22
11.3%
(00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #7 B.Jackson Jr. caught at WMU03, for 22 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:09, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
4.8%
(00:08) Kneel down by Western Mich. at WMU48 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:19
(14:19) #6 J.Buckley rush left for 1 yard gain to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:19 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)
-19.4
TD · Q3 9:15
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15 #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)
+17.5
TD · Q2 1:48
(01:48) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #2 A.Chenault caught at Rice00, for 34 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48, 1ST DOWN #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com