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UTM

UT Martin 21 at Memphis 45

MEM
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:18 · (01:25) #34 M.Zuluaga punt 74 yards to the MEM00, Touchback PENALTY UTM Illegal Formation 5 yards from MEM20 to MEM25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+43.0Home team on offense+3.6Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:11: (04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short middle to #7 M.Sherrard caught at MEM00, for 8 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:11. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King) — UTM win probability +1.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:37: (00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #86 J.Harding caught at UTM00, for 9 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:37 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons) — MEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:09: (11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #0 H.Tipton caught at UTM09, for 7 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:09 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons) — MEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:26: (11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short left to #3 K.Washington caught at MEM00, for 7 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:26. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King) — UTM win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:46: (07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:46 #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King) — UTM win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:43UTM 4th & 8 at MEM 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32MEM 4th & 2 at UTM 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07UTM 4th & 6 at UTM 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:18UTM 4th & 9 at UTM 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:05UTM 4th & 7 at MEM 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:26MEM 4th & 2 at UTM 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:48UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:36MEM 4th & 1 at UTM 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:08MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:35MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:11UTM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:37MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:09MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:26UTM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:53MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:46UTM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:36MEM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:172% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short left to #7 M.Sherrard caught at UTM29, for 16 yards to the UTM41 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Oliver thrown to UTM40 broken up by #15 E.KinslerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #39 T.Ansley caught at UTM38, for 0 yards to the UTM41 (#2 C.Logan Jr.)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+16
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #39 T.Ansley caught at UTM45, for 16 yards to the MEM43 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM39 (#15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short left to #11 A.Carter thrown to MEM25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-2
98.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MEM41 (#18 X.Miles)Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short right to #7 M.Sherrard thrown to MEM22, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1198% → 97%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
97.6%
(11:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #11 J.Hayes caught at MEM38, for 3 yards to the MEM44 (#17 W.Smith)Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+15
97.6%
PENALTY UTM Face Mask (#51 C.Wilson) 15 yards from MEM44 to UTM41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTM40 (#0 J.Smith)Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+9
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #5 S.Burnside caught at UTM31, for 9 yards to the UTM31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #11 J.Hayes caught at UTM31, for 6 yards to the UTM25 (#3 J.Castleberry), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTM22 (#51 C.Wilson)Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTM20 (#0 J.Smith; #20 B.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTM16 (#2 L.Pierce; #5 T.Cotton)Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short left to #5 S.Burnside thrown to UTM00Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+4
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #14 A.O'Callaghan caught at UTM13, for 4 yards to the UTM12 (#5 T.Cotton)Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
97.1%
#80 P.Laforge field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #34 W.Simmons), clock 07:32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:253% → 3%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.0%
No Huddle #11 A.Carter rush left for 2 yards gain to the UTM27 (#1 E.Ellis Jr.)Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
97.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Franklin rush right for 2 yards gain to the UTM29 (#40 T.McDonald; #34 K.Spratling)Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
97.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short middle to #11 A.Carter thrown to UTM36 broken up by #5 A.FosterSimilar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
96.9%
#34 M.Zuluaga punt 41 yards to the MEM30 fair catch by #17 A.Brown at MEM30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:5997% → 97%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
96.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #14 A.O'Callaghan caught at MEM35, for 14 yards to the MEM44 (#17 W.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM46 (#54 A.Morris Jr.; #0 J.Smith)Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+10
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #5 S.Burnside caught at UTM50, for 10 yards to the UTM44 (#3 J.Castleberry), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #14 A.O'Callaghan caught at UTM39, for 5 yards to the UTM39 (#3 J.Castleberry)Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+14
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush right for 14 yards gain to the UTM25 (#26 A.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #1 T.Chapman caught at UTM28, for 1 yard loss to the UTM26 (#5 T.Cotton)Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+26
97.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #1 T.Chapman caught at UTM11, for 26 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:443% → 3%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.9%
(03:07) Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush left for 4 yards gain to the UTM29 (#25 J.Clayton)Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
96.7%
(02:38) PENALTY UTM False Start (#78 S.Macias) 5 yards from UTM29 to UTM24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
96.7%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #88 C.Hewitt II caught at UTM23, for 2 yards to the UTM26 (#5 A.Foster)Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
96.7%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short right to #39 T.Ansley thrown to UTM28Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
96.7%
(01:25) #34 M.Zuluaga punt 74 yards to the MEM00, Touchback PENALTY UTM Illegal Formation 5 yards from MEM20 to MEM25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3797% → 98%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.6%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM29 (#41 B.Dailey)Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
96.5%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #11 J.Hayes caught at MEM28, for 6 yards to the MEM35, out of bounds at MEM35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.5%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush right for 1 yard gain to the MEM36 (#51 C.Wilson)Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
96.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM40 (#41 B.Dailey; #5 T.Cotton)Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
96.4%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #13 J.Davis caught at MEM49, for 9 yards to the MEM49 (#4 Z.Farmer-McCray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
96.4%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #11 J.Hayes caught at UTM47, for 4 yards to the UTM47 (#5 T.Cotton)Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+30
96.4%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep middle to #13 J.Davis caught at UTM26, for 30 yards to the UTM17 (#17 W.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.8%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #6 J.Carter caught at UTM00, for 17 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:35, 1ST DOWN #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 8:183% → 5%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.4%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Franklin rush left for 4 yards gain to the UTM29 (#99 D.Lowe; #8 A.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
97.3%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #1 D.Oliver caught at UTM32, for 17 yards to the UTM46 (#25 J.Clayton; #40 T.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
97.2%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short middle to #1 D.Oliver caught at UTM49, for 3 yards to the UTM49 (#40 T.McDonald)Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
97.1%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Washington thrown to UTM49 QB hurried by #14 J.TappSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+7
97.2%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber rush left for 7 yards gain to the MEM44 (#25 J.Clayton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.1%
PENALTY UTM False Start (#68 G.Smith) 5 yards from MEM44 to MEM49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+12
97.2%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Franklin rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MEM37 (#6 D.King)Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
97.0%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Franklin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM35 (#97 J.Gatling; #15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
97.0%
(08:30) Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM33 (#40 T.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
96.7%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #7 M.Sherrard caught at MEM22, for 20 yards to the MEM13 (#5 A.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
96.6%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM10 (#90 T.Burton)Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
96.4%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush right for 0 yards to the MEM10 (#40 T.McDonald)Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+9
96.6%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #7 M.Sherrard caught at MEM06, for 9 yards to the MEM01 (#8 A.Richard Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
96.3%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush right for 2 yards loss to the MEM03 (#25 J.Clayton; #9 M.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
96.3%
(04:44) PENALTY UTM False Start (#64 D.Egunjobi) 5 yards from MEM03 to MEM08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.3%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Oliver thrown to MEM00 broken up by #3 D.SmithSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.7%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short middle to #7 M.Sherrard caught at MEM00, for 8 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:11. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 3:2095% → 98%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
94.8%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #1 T.Chapman caught at MEM23, for 7 yards to the MEM31, out of bounds at MEM31Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
94.9%
PENALTY MEM False Start (#78 R.McGehee) 5 yards from MEM31 to MEM26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
94.8%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM29 (#20 B.Jordan)Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+16
94.7%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #4 T.Timmons Jr. caught at MEM43, for 16 yards to the MEM45, out of bounds at MEM45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
95.1%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM50 (#20 B.Jordan)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
50
+6
95.4%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #13 J.Davis caught at UTM44, for 6 yards to the UTM44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-11
95.5%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes sacked for loss of 11 yards to the MEM45 (#96 R.Duncan) PENALTY MEM Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 21
OWN 45
+10
95.2%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush left for 10 yards gain to the UTM45, out of bounds at UTM45Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+19
95.2%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #12 B.Kluse caught at UTM34, for 19 yards to the UTM26 (#5 T.Cotton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
95.6%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #11 J.Hayes caught at UTM17, for 9 yards to the UTM17 (#3 J.Castleberry)Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+8
95.4%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #11 J.Hayes caught at UTM11, for 8 yards to the UTM09 (#3 J.Castleberry), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.8%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #86 J.Harding caught at UTM00, for 9 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:37 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
(00:36) Shotgun #2 C.Franklin rush left for 0 yards to the UTM25 (#97 J.Gatling)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 3:2997% → 99%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.8%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short middle thrown to MEM21 broken up by #23 D.Chavis QB hurried by #23 D.ChavisSimilar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.8%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM26 (#20 B.Jordan). #59 A.Karas injured on the playSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+14
96.6%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #11 J.Hayes caught at MEM40, for 14 yards to the MEM40, out of bounds at MEM40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.8%
(13:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short right to #13 J.Davis thrown to UTM43Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
96.7%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #11 J.Hayes caught at MEM45, for 7 yards to the MEM47, out of bounds at MEM47Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
96.7%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush left for 13 yards gain to the UTM40, out of bounds at UTM40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
96.9%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UTM29 (#51 C.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
97.1%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete deep right to #13 J.Davis thrown to UTM00 PENALTY UTM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UTM29 to UTM24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 5
OPP 24
0
97.1%
(12:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete deep left to #17 A.Brown thrown to UTM00Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
97.1%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTM19 (#8 R.Allen Jr.), 1ST DOWN. #73 P.Gray III injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
97.1%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Hayes thrown to UTM20 broken up by #51 C.WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+12
97.1%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush right for 12 yards gain to the UTM07 (#41 B.Dailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.6%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #0 H.Tipton caught at UTM09, for 7 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:09 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:491% → 1%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.6%
(11:07) Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short left to #87 D.Adams-Grenier caught at UTM28, for 3 yards to the UTM28 (#3 D.Smith)Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.6%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Oliver thrown to UTM27Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
98.6%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #11 A.Carter caught at UTM37, for 9 yards to the UTM37 (#9 M.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.6%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Franklin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTM41 (#14 J.Tapp; #9 M.Montgomery)Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
98.6%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Franklin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTM43 (#15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
98.6%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short left to #1 D.Oliver caught at UTM46, for 3 yards to the UTM46 (#12 B.Mwamba)Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
98.6%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete deep left to #3 K.Washington thrown to MEM30 PENALTY MEM Offside (#14 J.Tapp) 5 yards from UTM46 to MEM49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.6%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Carter thrown to MEM42 broken up by #22 Z.Ruffin QB hurried by #9 M.MontgomerySimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.6%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM46 (#97 J.Gatling)Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
98.6%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Washington thrown to MEM36 broken up by #3 D.SmithSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
98.6%
(07:10) #34 M.Zuluaga punt 31 yards to the MEM15 fair catch by #17 A.Brown at MEM15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:3299% → 99%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
98.6%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MEM22 (#3 J.Castleberry)Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+6
98.7%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MEM28 (#20 B.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.8%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #17 A.Brown caught at MEM32, for 5 yards to the MEM33 (#3 J.Castleberry)Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
98.8%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM38 (#20 B.Jordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+38
98.9%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 38 yards gain to the UTM24 (#4 Z.Farmer-McCray), 1ST DOWN. #2 L.Pierce injured on the playSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.9%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete deep right to #17 A.Brown thrown to UTM00Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.1%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTM20 (#5 T.Cotton). #5 T.Cotton injured on the playSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
99.1%
PENALTY MEM False Start (#76 P.Mitchell) 5 yards from UTM20 to UTM25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+9
99.1%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #0 H.Tipton caught at UTM25, for 9 yards to the UTM16 (#96 R.Duncan)Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 2
OPP 16
0
99.1%
(03:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 0 yards to the UTM16 (#0 J.Smith), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:271% → 1%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.0%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Peete rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTM20 (#56 K.Miles)Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+8
99.0%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Peete rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UTM28 (#3 D.Smith; #90 T.Burton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
99.1%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short left to #3 K.Washington caught at UTM25, for 3 yards loss to the UTM25 (#3 D.Smith)Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+8
99.1%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short middle to #5 P.Wilson caught at UTM35, for 8 yards to the UTM33 (#22 Z.Ruffin; #8 A.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
99.1%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Carter thrown to UTM40Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+7
99.1%
(00:57) #34 M.Zuluaga punt 41 yards to the MEM26 #17 A.Brown return 7 yards to the MEM33 (#11 P.Reynolds; #44 H.King)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.2%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Noland pass complete short right to #80 J.Joseph caught at MEM39, for 12 yards to the MEM45 (#17 W.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.3%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Thompson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM47 (#8 R.Allen Jr.; #3 J.Castleberry)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
99.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Noland rush right for 4 yards gain to the UTM49, out of bounds at UTM49Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-33
99.3%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Noland pass intercepted by #3 J.Castleberry at UTM35 #3 J.Castleberry return 33 yards to the MEM32 (#78 R.McGehee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:461% → 3%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
99.1%
(14:12) Shotgun #20 J.Peete rush right for 2 yards gain to the MEM30 (#7 D.Malcolm Jr.), out of bounds PENALTY UTM Illegal Shift 5 yards from MEM32 to MEM37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+13
99.3%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short right to #20 J.Peete caught at MEM30, for 13 yards to the MEM24 (#10 J.Wallace), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+16
99.1%
(13:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Peete rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MEM08 (#12 B.Mwamba), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.1%
PENALTY UTM False Start (#71 T.Gray) 5 yards from MEM08 to MEM13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
99.2%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Carter thrown to MEM09 QB hurried by #4 J.Head Jr.Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
99.2%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Peete rush left for 6 yards gain to the MEM07 (#43 W.Walker)Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.3%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short left to #3 K.Washington caught at MEM00, for 7 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:26. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1698% → 99%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
98.1%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Thompson rush middle for 72 yards gain to the UTM03, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Noland pass complete short right to #80 J.Joseph caught at UTM05, for 3 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:53 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:001% → 3%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
(10:52) Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush right for 9 yards gain to the UTM34 (#10 J.Wallace; #27 J.Bell)Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.3%
(10:22) Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTM36 (#43 W.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+46
99.3%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete deep left to #1 D.Oliver caught at MEM20, for 46 yards to the MEM18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
99.2%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the MEM07 (#6 D.King), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.2%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber rush right for 6 yards gain to the MEM01 (#41 T.Nash)Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:46 #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:5398% → 100%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Gardner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM30 (#96 R.Duncan)Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.2%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Gardner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MEM32 (#51 C.Wilson)Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
98.2%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush right for 16 yards gain to the MEM48 (#4 Z.Farmer-McCray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.6%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Gardner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTM47 fumbled by #9 D.Gardner at UTM47 forced by #23 D.Chavis recovered by MEM #50 K.Keenum at UTM47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
98.6%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTM44 (#51 C.Wilson)Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
98.7%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTM41 (#5 T.Cotton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
98.7%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTM38 (#32 S.Ponder; #51 C.Wilson)Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
98.8%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Thompson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTM33 (#4 Z.Farmer-McCray)Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+28
98.9%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Thompson rush right for 28 yards gain to the UTM05, out of bounds at UTM05, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.9%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 D.Hayden rush middle for 0 yards to the UTM05 (#54 A.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.1%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Gardner rush right for 2 yards gain to the UTM03 (#43 M.Brown)Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.1%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Thompson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTM01 (#4 Z.Farmer-McCray)Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Thompson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:36 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 19END OF HALF
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:271% → 1%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
(00:34) Shotgun #20 J.Peete rush right for 2 yards gain to the UTM27 (#99 D.Lowe)Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.5%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Peete rush right for 2 yards gain to the UTM29 (#99 D.Lowe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:37
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #86 J.Harding caught at UTM00, for 9 yards to the UTM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:37 #80 P.Laforge kick attempt good (H: #30 H.Tuck, LS: #54 W.Simmons)
+2.8
TD · Q4 7:46
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #39 T.Ansley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:46 #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King)
-2.1
TD · Q4 11:26
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 T.Surber pass complete short left to #3 K.Washington caught at MEM00, for 7 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:26. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #37 B.Sims kick attempt good (H: #34 M.Zuluaga, LS: #44 H.King)
-1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com