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USF

South Florida 28 at Army 24

ARMY
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:10 · (10:15) #39 L.Goater punt 48 yards to the Army15 fair catch by #23 L.Benson III at Army15 PENALTY Army UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#9 R.Houston) 7 yards from Army15 to Army08
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−0.7Pregame prior+5.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:47: (11:48) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep right to #1 Z.Mundell caught at USF02, for 24 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:47, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) — ARMY win probability +7.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: (00:19) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #7 G.Nwawuihe caught at USF00, for 4 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:13 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter) — ARMY win probability +11.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:59: M. Van Buren Jr. run for 18 yds, for a TD (N. Gramatica KICK) (D. Jones KICK) — USF win probability +16.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:05: Dawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal — ARMY win probability +8.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:59: Godspower Nwawuihe 10 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick) — ARMY win probability +14.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:41ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:01USF 4th & 6 at ARMY 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:54ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.4%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:10USF 4th & 8 at USF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:24ARMY 4th & 2 at USF 22, tied
    Close callWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%−0.8
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:59ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:43ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:21USF 4th & 5 at USF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:05ARMY 4th & 5 at USF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−15.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:56USF 4th & 3 at USF 45, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:46ARMY 4th & 15 at USF 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:19USF 4th & 6 at ARMY 38, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:00USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:47ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:59USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:59ARMY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5342% → 44%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USF34 (#42 E.Walton)Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
58.1%
(14:16) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #8 W.Sullivan caught at USF36, for 17 yards to the Army49 (#7 J.Mayes; #19 J.Moss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
58.0%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #0 C.Seldon caught at USF49, for 31 yards to the Army18 (#7 J.Mayes; #17 J.Hammond), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
57.9%
(12:54) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army13 (#96 D.Stowers)Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
57.8%
(12:17) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army10 (#3 S.Nnadozie)Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
57.9%
(11:38) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army07 (#56 N.Buchys), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.3%
(11:00) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at Army00, for 7 yards to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:00 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0857% → 56%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
56.8%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 B.Mott rush left for 4 yards loss to the Army21 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
56.5%
(10:15) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #27 S.Howard caught at Army19, for 1 yard to the Army22 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+9
55.9%
(09:36) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #27 S.Howard caught at Army31, for 9 yards to the Army31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
55.6%
(08:53) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 57 yards to the USF12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:3344% → 47%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
55.7%
(08:38) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the USF13 (#97 C.Newton)Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+1
55.5%
(08:00) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the USF14 (#47 N.Nixon), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+10
55.4%
(07:21) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF21, for 10 yards to the USF24 (#47 N.Nixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
54.8%
(06:43) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 2 yards gain to the USF26 (#19 J.Moss)Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+8
54.5%
(06:03) Shotgun #0 C.Seldon rush left for 8 yards gain to the USF34 (#19 J.Moss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
54.0%
(05:21) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #4 A.Branch caught at USF39, for 5 yards to the USF39 (#6 J.Porter)Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+8
53.2%
(04:36) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USF47 (#13 C.Williams; #42 E.Walton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
52.9%
(03:57) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #80 J.Porter thrown to Army43Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
52.8%
(03:55) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army49 (#42 E.Walton)Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
52.5%
(03:14) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #8 W.Sullivan thrown to Army41 broken up by #13 C.WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
53.0%
(03:05) #39 L.Goater punt 39 yards to the Army10 fair catch by #23 L.Benson III at Army10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 6:0654% → 61%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
53.7%
(03:01) #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army15 (#77 M.Dillard; #2 T.Ward)Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+6
53.1%
(02:22) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Army21 (#6 R.Hill; #1 C.Hicks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
52.8%
(01:39) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army25 (#15 T.Beasley)Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-2
52.8%
(01:00) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush left for 2 yards loss to the Army23 (#18 L.Smiley)Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+7
51.7%
(00:19) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Army30 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+2
51.8%
(14:59) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army32 (#6 R.Hill; #56 T.Simmons Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
52.2%
(14:19) Shotgun #1 Z.Mundell rush left for 18 yards gain to the Army50 (#5 A.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
50
+13
53.3%
(13:37) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #44 P.Poloskey caught at USF37, for 13 yards to the USF37 (#23 C.Hawkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
53.4%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short middle to #44 P.Poloskey caught at USF31, for 9 yards to the USF28 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
54.1%
(12:33) Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF24 (#33 A.Mosley; #6 R.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
61.1%
(11:48) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete deep right to #1 Z.Mundell caught at USF02, for 24 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:47, 1ST DOWN #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3043% → 42%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.5%
(11:45) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USF35 (#13 C.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.0%
(11:10) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF37 (#19 J.Moss; #47 N.Nixon)Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
56.8%
(10:28) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to Army35 broken up by #3 S.NnadozieSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
57.5%
(10:20) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to Army35 broken up by #42 E.WaltonSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
58.5%
(10:15) #39 L.Goater punt 48 yards to the Army15 fair catch by #23 L.Benson III at Army15 PENALTY Army UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#9 R.Houston) 7 yards from Army15 to Army08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
23 plays · 92 yds · 9:4959% → 72%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
58.5%
(10:10) Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Army15 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
58.8%
(09:31) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army17 (#56 T.Simmons Jr.; #51 M.Harris)Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
57.8%
(08:49) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 2 yards gain to the Army19 (#7 S.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
58.8%
(08:12) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Army18 (#10 S.Meikle)Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+9
58.5%
(07:31) #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #1 Z.Mundell caught at Army27, for 9 yards to the Army27, out of bounds at Army27Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+4
58.2%
(06:51) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 4 yards gain to the Army31 (#5 A.Jackson; #1 C.Hicks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
59.2%
(06:11) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Army39 (#6 R.Hill)Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+3
60.9%
(05:32) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush right for 3 yards gain to the Army42 (#77 M.Dillard; #23 C.Hawkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
60.7%
(04:55) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush right for 7 yards gain to the Army49 (#23 C.Hawkins Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+7
61.4%
(04:09) #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USF44 (#5 A.Jackson; #6 R.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
61.8%
(03:28) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF40 (#10 S.Meikle; #25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+10
61.6%
(02:56) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USF30 (#5 A.Jackson; #2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
62.3%
PENALTY USF Offside (#28 R.Jenkins) 5 yards from USF30 to USF25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 5
OPP 25
-1
62.3%
(01:56) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USF26 (#31 J.Murphy; #5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
62.4%
(01:21) #27 S.Howard rush left for 0 yards to the USF26 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+4
61.2%
(00:41) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 4 yards gain to the USF22 (#33 A.Mosley; #28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+8
59.4%
(00:35) #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #84 B.Anderson caught at USF14, for 8 yards to the USF14, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
62.3%
(00:24) #3 C.Hellums rush right for 5 yards gain to the USF09 (#31 J.Murphy), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+5
62.3%
(00:22) #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USF04 (#31 J.Murphy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.6%
(00:19) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short left to #7 G.Nwawuihe caught at USF00, for 4 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:13 #95 D.Jones kick attempt good (H: #98 M.Faulk, LS: #55 O.Walter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
68.2%
(00:08) Kneel down by #3 M.Van Buren Jr. at USF19 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0170% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.3%
PENALTY USF Disconcerting Signals (#31 J.Murphy) 5 yards from Army25 to Army30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
71.4%
(14:58) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 0 yards to the Army30 (#1 C.Hicks; #77 M.Dillard)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
71.0%
(14:21) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army32 (#51 M.Harris; #6 R.Hill)Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
70.4%
(13:46) #3 C.Hellums rush left for 1 yard gain to the Army33 (#7 S.Robinson; #11 A.Redwood)Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.7%
(13:04) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 41 yards to the USF26, out of bounds at USF26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:5431% → 52%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
69.4%
(12:58) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the USF32 (#19 J.Moss)Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-1
68.5%
(12:22) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #0 C.Seldon caught at USF29, for 1 yard loss to the USF31 (#42 E.Walton; #13 C.Williams)Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+15
69.8%
(11:34) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #4 A.Branch caught at USF35, for 15 yards to the USF46 (#3 S.Nnadozie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
67.5%
(11:03) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Army45 (#7 J.Mayes)Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
66.3%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Branch thrown to Army40Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
66.5%
(10:34) #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Army43 (#57 J.Anthony), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
67.1%
(09:48) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #4 A.Branch caught at Army32, for 17 yards to the Army26 (#7 J.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
65.0%
(09:04) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #0 C.Seldon thrown to Army19 PENALTY Army Pass Interference (#13 C.Williams) 8 yards from Army26 to Army18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under automatic review - "Penalty enforcement". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
48.5%
M. Van Buren Jr. run for 18 yds, for a TD (N. Gramatica KICK) (D. Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:0858% → 56%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.8%
(08:57) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush right for 6 yards gain to the Army31 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
59.4%
(08:24) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Army36 (#1 C.Hicks; #56 T.Simmons Jr.), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Army UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#84 B.Anderson) 15 yards from Army36 to Army21Similar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
57.7%
(08:07) Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush right for 3 yards gain to the Army24 (#33 A.Mosley), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
57.9%
(07:20) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Army27 (#7 S.Robinson; #28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+1
56.7%
(06:36) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush left for 1 yard gain to the Army28 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
55.7%
(05:54) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 52 yards to the USF20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1446% → 44%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.3%
(05:43) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the USF20 (#42 E.Walton; #6 J.Porter)Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
54.3%
(05:02) Shotgun #0 C.Seldon rush left for 1 yard loss to the USF19 (#42 E.Walton; #52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+6
55.8%
(04:11) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #4 A.Branch caught at USF22, for 6 yards to the USF25 (#6 J.Porter)Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+7
56.4%
(03:30) #39 L.Goater punt 36 yards to the Army39 #23 L.Benson III return 7 yards to the Army46 (#49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:0861% → 70%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
61.3%
(03:20) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USF41 (#16 T.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
62.4%
(02:35) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USF28 (#2 T.Ward; #25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
63.5%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 Z.Mundell rush left for 4 yards gain to the USF24 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
63.6%
(01:32) Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF23 (#51 M.Harris; #5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+8
62.0%
(00:46) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USF15 (#23 C.Hawkins Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
63.7%
(00:02) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush right for 1 yard gain to the USF14 (#23 C.Hawkins Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+4
63.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF10 (#2 T.Ward; #5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
62.1%
(14:14) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass incomplete short right to #84 B.Anderson thrown to USF00 QB hurried by #1 C.Hicks and #33 A.MosleySimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
70.0%
Dawson Jones 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0534% → 35%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.2%
(14:05) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #8 W.Sullivan thrown to USF27Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
66.7%
(13:59) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USF38 (#15 Z.Tallman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
64.0%
(13:20) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 5 yards gain to the USF43 (#42 E.Walton)Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
61.8%
(12:39) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF45 (#42 E.Walton; #52 K.Harris-Miller)Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
62.1%
(11:52) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the USF45 (#42 E.Walton; #19 J.Moss)Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
65.4%
(10:59) #39 L.Goater punt 45 yards to the Army10 fair catch by #23 L.Benson III at Army10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 5:5170% → 93%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
70.2%
(10:55) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Army17 (#10 S.Meikle; #8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+4
70.5%
(10:14) #7 G.Nwawuihe rush left for 4 yards gain to the Army21 (#8 A.Fortenberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
71.1%
(09:35) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Army22 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+37
70.9%
(08:50) Shotgun #1 Z.Mundell pass complete deep right to #11 T.Olawole caught at USF41, for 37 yards to the USF41 (#9 I.Boyce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
76.0%
(08:00) Shotgun #33 J.Rendina rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF39 (#7 S.Robinson; #4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+23
75.6%
(07:18) Shotgun #1 Z.Mundell rush left for 23 yards gain to the USF16 (#4 M.Williams II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
78.2%
(06:35) Shotgun #7 G.Nwawuihe rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USF10 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
78.4%
(05:53) Shotgun #27 S.Howard rush right for 0 yards to the USF10 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
92.8%
Godspower Nwawuihe 10 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:338% → 11%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
92.2%
(04:59) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF44, for 21 yards to the USF46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
90.5%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at Army46, for 8 yards to the Army46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
89.4%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #5 D.Crowther caught at Army44, for 4 yards to the Army42 (#15 Z.Tallman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
90.2%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 B.Rodgers caught at Army33, for 9 yards to the Army33 (#13 C.Williams)Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+9
89.3%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at Army25, for 9 yards to the Army24 (#19 J.Moss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
89.4%
M. Van Buren Jr. run for 24 yds, for a TD (N. Gramatica KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1094% → 96%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
94.3%
(03:03) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF39 (#11 A.Redwood; #7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-1
94.2%
(02:27) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USF40 (#51 M.Harris)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 9
OPP 40
-6
96.4%
(01:58) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums sacked for loss of 6 yards to the USF46 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
95.8%
(01:53) #46 J.Wagenseller punt 42 yards to the USF04 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF04 PENALTY Army UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#33 J.Rendina) 15 yards from USF04 to USF19, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 1:205% → 4%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
94.7%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #80 J.Porter thrown to Army48Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+7
94.8%
(01:39) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at USF25, for 7 yards to the USF26 (#19 J.Moss)Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+22
94.5%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep middle to #80 J.Porter caught at USF48, for 22 yards to the USF48 (#42 E.Walton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.0%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Porter thrown to Army47Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
94.0%
(01:02) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Porter thrown to Army40 broken up by #13 C.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+10
94.5%
(00:55) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #4 A.Branch caught at Army42, for 10 yards to the Army42 (#15 Z.Tallman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
93.2%
(00:41) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #8 W.Sullivan caught at Army38, for 4 yards to the Army38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
95.0%
(00:37) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #8 W.Sullivan thrown to Army18Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
95.5%
(00:29) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Branch thrown to Army32Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+38
96.3%
Joshua Porter 38 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Nico Gramatica Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
97.4%
(00:16) Shotgun #3 C.Hellums pass complete short right to #1 Z.Mundell caught at Army40, for 14 yards to the USF48 fumbled by #1 Z.Mundell at Army40 recovered by USF #35 H.Perry Jr. at USF48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
96.6%
(00:00) Kneel down by #3 M.Van Buren Jr. at USF46 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-96.6
TD · Q3 8:59
M. Van Buren Jr. run for 18 yds, for a TD (N. Gramatica KICK) (D. Jones KICK)
-16.5
TD · Q4 4:59
Godspower Nwawuihe 10 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com