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FIU

Florida International 9 at South Florida 19

USF
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:35 · #43 F.Visser punt 41 yards to the USF22 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+11.9Home team on offense+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 9:04: #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 09:04 — FIU win probability +4.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 0:00: PENALTY FIU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from USF07 to USF12. NO PLAY — FIU win probability +2.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:07: Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:07 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) — USF win probability +12.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:03: #7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 07:03 — USF win probability +6.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: James Resar 21 Yd pass from JJ Kohl — FIU win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:28USF 4th & 4 at FIU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:27FIU 4th & 5 at USF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00USF 4th & 5 at FIU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08FIU 4th & 2 at USF 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:26USF 4th & 18 at FIU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:00FIU 4th & 12 at USF 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:04USF 4th & 4 at USF 41, up 6
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 2 at USF 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:21FIU 4th & 3 at USF 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:04FIU 4th & 10 at USF 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:22USF 4th & 17 at USF 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−3.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:22FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.8%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:35FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:00USF 4th & 5 at USF 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:11FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:03USF 4th & 12 at FIU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−4.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:17FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:44USF 4th & 8 at FIU 11, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 13:07USF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:3282% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.9%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the USF32 (#8 R.Gadson)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
81.9%
No Huddle #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USF37 (#5 K.Simmons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
81.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USF42 (#2 D.Boykins; #9 J.Taylor)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
81.9%
#2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the USF42 (#18 P.Stewart; #2 D.Boykins)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
81.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #4 A.Branch caught at FIU49, for 9 yards to the FIU49 (#8 R.Gadson; #90 A.Cunningham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
81.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 3 yards gain to the FIU46 (#9 J.Taylor)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
81.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the FIU40 (#4 W.Miller)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-3
81.9%
#5 D.Crowther rush middle for 3 yards loss to the FIU43 (#18 P.Stewart)Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
80.9%
#39 L.Goater punt 42 yards to the FIU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:0119% → 21%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
80.8%
Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 0 yards to the FIU01 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+10
80.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU11, for 10 yards to the FIU11, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
80.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Verdugo thrown to FIU15 broken up by #1 C.HicksSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+3
80.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU06, for 3 yards to the FIU14 (#0 G.Howard; #31 J.Murphy)Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+15
80.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete deep right to #7 K.McNeal thrown to FIU40, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USF Pass Interference (#8 A.Fortenberry) 15 yards from FIU14 to FIU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
80.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #0 J.Stone caught at FIU31, for 9 yards to the FIU38 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+15
80.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #9 J.Verdugo caught at FIU35, for 15 yards to the USF47 (#7 S.Robinson; #33 A.Mosley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Carrie thrown to FIU48 QB hurried by #18 L.SmileySimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
80.3%
PENALTY FIU False Start (#54 Z.Flournoy) 5 yards from USF47 to FIU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+1
80.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush right for 1 yard gain to the FIU49 (#6 R.Hill)Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+9
80.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #8 G.Gaines caught at USF42, for 9 yards to the USF42 (#31 J.Murphy)Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
78.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short middle to #8 G.Gaines thrown to USF30, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:2780% → 79%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
79.8%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 12 yards gain to the FIU46 (#1 S.Sterlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
80.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at FIU42, for 8 yards to the FIU38 (#4 W.Miller)Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
80.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the FIU35 (#2 D.Boykins; #15 N.Jennings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
80.2%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the FIU34 (#22 B.Littlejohn)Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+3
80.2%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the FIU31 (#22 B.Littlejohn)Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+7
80.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #4 A.Branch caught at FIU24, for 7 yards to the FIU24 (#7 J.Celestine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
80.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU22 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.; #97 E.Baldridge)Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-4
80.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 4 yards loss to the FIU26 (#22 B.Littlejohn; #97 E.Baldridge)Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+7
79.7%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at FIU23, for 7 yards to the FIU19 (#2 D.Boykins), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
79.1%
Nico Gramatica 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5221% → 22%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #3 D.Lyons thrown to FIU24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
78.8%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #2 M.Anderson caught at FIU29, for 19 yards to the FIU44 (#5 A.Jackson; #35 H.Perry Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
77.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush right for 4 yards gain to the FIU48 (#16 T.Foster), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
77.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Verdugo thrown to USF39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+4
77.8%
Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF48 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 2
OPP 48
-2
77.8%
#7 K.McNeal rush right for 2 yards loss to the USF50 (#8 A.Fortenberry), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4279% → 80%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
50
+9
79.3%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 9 yards gain to the FIU41 (#18 P.Stewart), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+14
79.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #4 A.Branch caught at FIU31, for 14 yards to the FIU27 (#6 L.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
79.7%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FIU28 (#2 D.Boykins)Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-7
79.7%
No Huddle #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 7 yards loss to the FIU35 (#33 D.Holmes Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 18
OPP 35
0
78.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #80 J.Porter thrown to FIU29Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 18
OPP 35
+53
80.2%
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 53 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 10:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 5:2620% → 19%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.5%
#1 A.Carrie rush left for 14 yards gain to the FIU39 (#6 R.Hill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
79.8%
#1 A.Carrie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FIU42 (#15 T.Beasley)Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
79.4%
#1 A.Carrie rush right for 5 yards gain to the FIU47 (#31 J.Murphy)Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
79.3%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #2 M.Anderson caught at USF48, for 7 yards to the USF46 (#2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
79.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #6 E.Nelson caught at USF36, for 10 yards to the USF36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
79.0%
#3 D.Lyons rush left for 2 yards gain to the USF34 (#9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-1
78.4%
#3 D.Lyons rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USF35 (#98 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-3
79.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #22 S.Joseph caught at USF39, for 3 yards loss to the USF38 (#15 T.Beasley)Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
81.2%
#43 F.Visser punt 38 yards to the USF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5682% → 81%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
81.6%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at USF28, for 8 yards to the USF28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
82.2%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USF35 (#0 D.Floyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #80 J.Porter thrown to FIU20Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
81.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #4 A.Branch caught at USF39, for 6 yards to the USF41 (#2 D.Boykins)Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
82.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF45 QB hurried by #16 N.WatsonSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
81.4%
#39 L.Goater punt 44 yards to the FIU15 fair catch by #2 M.Anderson at FIU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8END OF HALF
17 plays · 37 yds · 2:5618% → 19%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
82.1%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete deep left to #0 J.Stone caught at FIU35, for 21 yards to the FIU36 (#15 T.Beasley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU35, for 4 yards to the FIU40 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
80.5%
#1 A.Carrie rush left for 2 yards gain to the FIU42 (#16 T.Foster), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+10
79.0%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #0 J.Stone caught at USF39, for 21 yards to the USF37 (#15 T.Beasley) PENALTY FIU Holding (#78 N.Molina) 10 yards from FIU42 to FIU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+16
81.1%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #6 E.Nelson caught at FIU48, for 16 yards to the FIU48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
79.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 2 yards gain to the FIU50 (#11 A.Redwood)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
50
+7
78.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #4 J.Resar caught at USF45, for 7 yards to the USF43 (#16 T.Foster)Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
77.1%
No Huddle #17 J.Kohl rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF42 (#7 S.Robinson; #28 R.Jenkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
77.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left to #4 J.Resar thrown to USF37Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
78.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USF32 (#2 T.Ward; #4 M.Williams II) PENALTY FIU Holding (#55 D.Harley) 10 yards from USF42 to FIU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+4
80.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #0 J.Stone caught at FIU47, for 4 yards to the USF48 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 16
OPP 48
0
80.6%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete deep middle thrown to USF00 broken up by #5 A.Jackson QB hurried by #1 C.HicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9FG
19 plays · 63 yds · 15:0022% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.1%
Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush right for 7 yards gain to the FIU32 (#35 H.Perry Jr.; #2 T.Ward)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
76.6%
#17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU48, for 18 yards to the FIU50, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
75.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #8 G.Gaines caught at FIU47, for 1 yard loss to the FIU49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+5
76.9%
PENALTY FIU False Start (#6 E.Nelson) 5 yards from FIU49 to FIU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+5
77.8%
PENALTY FIU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FIU44 to FIU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 39
+5
77.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush left for 5 yards gain to the FIU44 (#40 G.Leach)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+14
78.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #2 M.Anderson caught at USF42, for 14 yards to the USF42 (#35 H.Perry Jr.)Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+8
76.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #2 M.Anderson caught at USF43, for 8 yards to the USF34 (#7 S.Robinson; #40 G.Leach), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
74.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #2 M.Anderson caught at USF33, for 8 yards to the USF26 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
74.5%
#17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Resar thrown to USF23 QB hurried by #18 L.SmileySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-1
75.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USF27 (#33 A.Mosley)Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+15
76.3%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl rush right for 15 yards gain to the USF12 (#8 A.Fortenberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
76.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Verdugo thrown to USF10Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
76.0%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #2 M.Anderson caught at USF12, for 5 yards to the USF07 (#2 T.Ward; #6 R.Hill)Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
77.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Resar thrown to USF00 QB hurried by #18 L.SmileySimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
72.9%
#48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 09:04Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+5
70.8%
PENALTY FIU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from USF07 to USF12. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:4275% → 73%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #8 W.Sullivan thrown to USF42Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
75.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 4 yards to the USF21 (#33 D.Holmes Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
73.9%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF23 (#9 J.Taylor)Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
73.5%
PENALTY USF False Start (#9 I.Boyce) 5 yards from USF23 to USF18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+2
73.0%
#39 L.Goater punt 59 yards to the FIU23 #2 M.Anderson return 2 yards to the FIU25 (#49 E.Bonnett), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4727% → 25%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.5%
#1 A.Carrie rush left for 1 yard gain to the FIU26 (#5 A.Jackson; #6 R.Hill)Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
73.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Anderson thrown to FIU42Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
74.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FIU34 (#9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
74.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FIU37 (#4 M.Williams II; #25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left to #6 E.Nelson thrown to USF45Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
72.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #7 K.McNeal thrown to USF49Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
74.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete deep right to #7 K.McNeal thrown to USF33 broken up by #8 A.FortenberrySimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
74.9%
#43 F.Visser punt 41 yards to the USF22 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3575% → 72%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
74.5%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF23 (#22 B.Littlejohn)Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
74.3%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF27 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.)Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
73.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #4 A.Branch thrown to FIU35 broken up by #7 J.CelestineSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+11
71.8%
#39 L.Goater punt 44 yards to the FIU29 #2 M.Anderson return 11 yards to the FIU40 (#49 E.Bonnett), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 4:0029% → 30%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.2%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Anderson thrown to USF50Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
71.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #0 J.Stone caught at FIU37, for 6 yards to the FIU46 (#15 T.Beasley)Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-5
69.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass intercepted by #15 T.Beasley at FIU40 #15 T.Beasley return 5 yards to the FIU35 (#0 J.Stone)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:2578% → 90%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
78.1%
#5 D.Crowther rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FIU25 (#9 J.Taylor; #18 P.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 0 yards to the FIU25 (#9 J.Taylor; #1 S.Sterlin)Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
78.0%
PENALTY USF False Start (#78 C.Cook) 5 yards from FIU25 to FIU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+5
76.6%
#5 D.Crowther rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FIU25 (#33 D.Holmes Jr.; #18 P.Stewart)Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+12
76.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #8 W.Sullivan caught at FIU20, for 12 yards to the FIU13 (#18 P.Stewart; #7 J.Celestine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
78.1%
PENALTY USF False Start (#67 T.Shrader) 5 yards from FIU13 to FIU18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+10
78.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 10 yards gain to the FIU08 (#4 W.Miller; #12 R.Moss Jr.)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
77.8%
(15:00) #5 D.Crowther rush left for 0 yards to the FIU08 (#95 A.Smith)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
76.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FIU02 (#97 E.Baldridge; #5 K.Simmons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.8%
#5 D.Crowther rush left for 1 yard gain to the FIU01 (#5 K.Simmons)Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:07 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5611% → 10%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.2%
(13:07) Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #2 M.Anderson caught at FIU30, for 6 yards to the FIU31 (#2 T.Ward), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
88.0%
PENALTY FIU False Start (#54 Z.Flournoy) 5 yards from FIU31 to FIU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
89.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #6 E.Nelson caught at FIU31, for 8 yards to the FIU34 (#6 R.Hill)Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
88.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 0 yards to the FIU34 (#28 R.Jenkins; #56 T.Simmons Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
89.6%
No Huddle #17 J.Kohl rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU36 fumbled by #17 J.Kohl at FIU34 recovered by USF South Fla. at FIU36, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:0891% → 96%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
90.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #8 W.Sullivan thrown to FIU23Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
90.5%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FIU33 (#4 W.Miller; #88 E.Simmons)Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+10
90.2%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at FIU26, for 10 yards to the FIU23 (#2 D.Boykins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
91.0%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FIU20 (#88 E.Simmons; #10 O.Wallace)Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+11
91.0%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 11 yards gain to the FIU09 (#10 O.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
91.0%
#2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU08 (#9 J.Taylor; #7 J.Celestine)Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
91.0%
#2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 4 yards loss to the FIU12 (#91 K.Samuel; #97 E.Baldridge)Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
90.1%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #4 A.Branch thrown to FIU01 broken up by #8 R.GadsonSimilar
Q4 7:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
96.1%
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 07:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:464% → 3%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.9%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl sacked for loss of 1 yard to the FIU24 (#4 M.Williams II, #77 M.Dillard)Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
95.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU31, for 9 yards to the FIU33 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
95.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #0 J.Stone caught at FIU29, for 3 yards to the FIU36 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left thrown to FIU35Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
95.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Anderson thrown to FIU49Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
95.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 0 yards to the FIU36 (#28 R.Jenkins; #1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 10
OWN 36
-20
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass intercepted by #2 T.Ward at USF40 #2 T.Ward return 20 yards to the FIU40 (#13 T.Carter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:3397% → 99%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
97.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #4 A.Branch caught at FIU35, for 11 yards to the FIU29 (#2 D.Boykins; #0 D.Floyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
97.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 8 yards gain to the FIU21 (#4 W.Miller)Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+8
97.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #87 L.Clyburn caught at FIU17, for 8 yards to the FIU13 (#4 W.Miller; #1 S.Sterlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
97.4%
#2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU11 (#2 D.Boykins; #5 K.Simmons)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
98.4%
#3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the FIU10 (#9 J.Taylor)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-1
98.6%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FIU11 (#97 E.Baldridge)Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
98.8%
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 01:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 1:401% → 4%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
99.1%
Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #6 E.Nelson caught at FIU15, for 9 yards to the FIU22 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+29
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #13 T.Carter caught at FIU35, for 29 yards to the USF49 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #4 J.Resar caught at USF46, for 3 yards to the USF46, out of bounds at USF46Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl rush left for 6 yards gain to the USF40 (#6 R.Hill)Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #22 S.Joseph caught at USF40, for 4 yards to the USF36 (#1 C.Hicks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #2 M.Anderson caught at USF18, for 20 yards to the USF16 (#16 T.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.7%
PENALTY FIU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from USF16 to USF21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+21
95.6%
James Resar 21 Yd pass from JJ Kohl Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:07
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:07 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)
+12.6
FG · Q4 7:03
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 07:03
+6
FG · Q3 9:04
#48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 09:04
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com