Try the model
CIT

The Citadel 43 at Charlotte 41

CLT
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreCIT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1OTQ2OT2Q3Q4OT3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:37 · (12:45) #44 I.Kelly punt 40 yards to the CIT13 #4 B.Knauth return 5 yards to the CIT18 (#13 G.Willis; #26 D.St. Clair)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1OTQ2OT2Q3Q4OT3Q4OTOT2Play 7Pregame prior+39.2Home team on offense+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Time remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:32: (01:33) #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:32 #90 E.Kiely kick attempt good (H: #1 J.Weil, LS: #50 T.DiLiegro) — CIT win probability +18.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:11: (12:15) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush left for 2 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:11 #90 E.Kiely kick attempt good (H: #1 J.Weil, LS: #50 T.DiLiegro) — CIT win probability +26.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:24: (00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT00, for 6 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #44 I.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #33 H.Searcy) — CLT win probability +39.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · OT2 0:00: (00:00) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT00, for 18 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #9 C.Gonzales pass attempt failed — CLT win probability +20.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — CIT win probability +33.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CIT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:37CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:03CIT 4th & 2 at CIT 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:05CIT 4th & 3 at CIT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:50CIT 4th & 4 at CLT 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:00CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:47CIT 4th & 8 at CIT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:35CIT 4th & 11 at CIT 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:19CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:20CLT 4th & 1 at CIT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.1%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:02CLT 4th & 3 at CIT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−13.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:34CIT 4th & 6 at CIT 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:02CIT 4th & 6 at CIT 43, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 4.2 ptsWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%−4.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CIT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:23CIT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:48CIT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:38CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:32CIT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:11CIT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:24CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−6.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1690% → 90%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush right for 9 yards gain to the CLT34 (#18 Z.Stroup; #32 T.Elam)Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
90.2%
(14:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #2 J.Hampton caught at CLT35, for 8 yards to the CLT42 (#20 K.Bridges), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
90.1%
(14:04) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #7 C.Williams caught at CLT36, for 2 yards loss to the CLT40 (#12 J.Mosley)Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+7
89.9%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush right for 7 yards gain to the CLT47 (#18 Z.Stroup; #29 D.McGruder)Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
89.8%
(12:51) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short left to #3 L.Mauldin thrown to CIT48Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+5
89.7%
(12:45) #44 I.Kelly punt 40 yards to the CIT13 #4 B.Knauth return 5 yards to the CIT18 (#13 G.Willis; #26 D.St. Clair)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2710% → 11%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
89.7%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #6 I.Zamor thrown to CIT35 QB hurried by #9 C.SimpsonSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
89.6%
(12:30) Shotgun #4 B.Knauth rush right for 9 yards gain to the CIT27 (#0 C.Gill)Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 1
OWN 27
-1
89.4%
(11:45) Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CIT26 (#0 C.Gill; #9 C.Simpson)Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+1
89.3%
(11:13) #1 J.Weil punt 40 yards to the CLT34 #21 H.Rutledge return 1 yard to the CLT35 (#22 B.Bankhead; #12 J.Mosley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1489% → 89%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
89.3%
(11:04) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush right for 4 yards gain to the CLT39 (#34 J.Wright)Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
89.2%
(10:28) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #89 D.Eley caught at CLT43, for 7 yards to the CLT46 (#29 D.McGruder), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
89.1%
(09:51) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass intercepted by #2 Z.Brown at CIT45 #2 Z.Brown return 7 yards to the CLT48 (#7 C.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 4TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:1511% → 14%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
88.6%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT47 (#95 D.Ancrum)Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+36
88.2%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes pass complete deep right to #6 I.Zamor caught at CLT11, for 36 yards to the CLT11, out of bounds at CLT11, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
88.1%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes rush right for 2 yards gain to the CLT09 (#19 K.Schmitz; #13 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
87.8%
(08:04) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 7 yards gain to the CLT02 (#13 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
86.3%
(07:26) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #90 E.Kiely kick attempt good (H: #1 J.Weil, LS: #50 T.DiLiegro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1087% → 88%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.7%
(07:23) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT21, for 8 yards to the CLT33 (#8 S.Rogers)Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
86.7%
(06:56) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT34 (#26 J.Saddler; #42 D.Darby)Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
87.7%
(06:13) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 66 yards gain to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:03, 1ST DOWN #44 I.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #33 H.Searcy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5213% → 13%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes rush left for 0 yards to the CIT25 (#0 C.Gill; #13 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.3%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes rush left for 2 yards gain to the CIT27 (#10 J.Wall III), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
87.2%
(04:39) Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes pass complete short left to #89 W.Hobgood caught at CIT25, for 5 yards to the CIT32 (#0 C.Gill)Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
87.1%
(04:12) #1 J.Weil punt 48 yards to the CLT20, out of bounds at CLT20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7INT
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:5187% → 87%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.9%
(04:05) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT24 (#2 Z.Brown; #8 S.Rogers)Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
86.7%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #89 D.Eley caught at CLT25, for 76 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:20 PENALTY CLT Holding (#3 L.Mauldin) 10 yards from CLT30 to CLT20Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.6%
(03:15) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CLT25 (#2 Z.Brown; #41 I.Richardson)Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+37
86.3%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete deep right to #1 J.Barnes caught at CIT43, for 37 yards to the CIT38, out of bounds at CIT38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
87.0%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #85 J.Jeffares caught at CIT39, for 9 yards to the CIT29 (#27 A.Turnbow)Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-1
87.0%
(01:39) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #17 G.McGee caught at CIT30, for 1 yard loss to the CIT30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
86.5%
(00:57) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIT28 (#10 D.Sheppard; #2 Z.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.6%
(00:06) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete deep left to #81 B.Rhoads thrown to CIT07Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-20
86.5%
(00:06) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass intercepted by #18 Z.Stroup at CIT18 broken up by #34 J.Wright #18 Z.Stroup return 20 yards to the CIT38 (#1 J.Barnes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:0415% → 17%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
84.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 2 yards loss to the CIT36 (#7 D.Burgess; #9 C.Simpson)Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+12
84.7%
(14:23) Shotgun #4 B.Knauth rush right for 12 yards gain to the CIT48 (#1 J.Croft Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
83.6%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIT49 (#9 C.Simpson)Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
83.5%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 5 yards gain to the CLT46 (#10 J.Wall III)Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
83.1%
(12:35) Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes rush right for 0 yards to the CLT46 (#9 C.Simpson; #13 G.Willis)Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
83.3%
(11:54) #1 J.Weil punt 31 yards to the CLT15 fair catch by #21 H.Rutledge at CLT15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:3784% → 83%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
84.1%
(11:48) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush right for 10 yards gain to the CLT25 (#34 J.Wright), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.1%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT25, for 5 yards to the CLT30 (#2 Z.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
84.1%
(10:50) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CLT29 (#99 T.Duncan; #2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
83.3%
(10:12) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short left to #89 D.Eley thrown to CLT40Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.7%
(10:07) #95 B.Long punt 50 yards to the CIT21 #4 B.Knauth return 0 yards to the CIT21 (#33 H.Searcy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0417% → 18%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
82.6%
(10:00) Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes sacked for loss of 8 yards to the CIT13 (#10 J.Wall III)Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+3
82.4%
(09:16) Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes rush right for 3 yards gain to the CIT16 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+7
82.6%
(08:36) Shotgun #7 Q.Hayes rush left for 7 yards gain to the CIT23 (#0 C.Gill)Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+6
82.0%
(07:58) #1 J.Weil punt 55 yards to the CLT22 #21 H.Rutledge return 6 yards to the CLT28 (#24 N.Mirabella)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:5183% → 88%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
82.6%
(07:47) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #89 D.Eley caught at CLT34, for 6 yards to the CLT34 (#12 J.Mosley)Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
83.0%
(07:11) Shotgun #21 H.Rutledge rush right for 1 yard gain to the CLT35 (#34 J.Wright)Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+22
82.0%
(06:25) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 22 yards gain to the CIT43 (#18 Z.Stroup), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
88.0%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete deep middle to #89 D.Eley caught at CIT01, for 43 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:47, 1ST DOWN #44 I.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #33 H.Searcy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 3:5414% → 14%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.4%
(05:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush right for 5 yards gain to the CIT30 (#0 C.Gill), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
86.0%
(05:04) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CIT29 (#30 S.Bowman)Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
86.5%
(04:25) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass complete short left to #6 I.Zamor caught at CIT36, for 7 yards to the CIT36 (#19 K.Schmitz), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
85.7%
(03:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 6 yards gain to the CIT42 (#3 D.Womack), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
84.9%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 S.Boyle rush right for 3 yards gain to the CIT45 (#95 D.Ancrum)Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
84.9%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 S.Boyle rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIT49 (#95 D.Ancrum; #19 K.Schmitz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
84.4%
(02:24) Shotgun #19 N.Armentano rush right for 3 yards loss to the CIT46 (#0 C.Gill)Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-7
85.2%
(02:00) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CIT39 (#85 C.Irving)Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 20
OWN 39
+9
85.7%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush right for 9 yards gain to the CIT48 (#0 C.Gill), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
85.9%
(01:39) #1 J.Weil punt 36 yards to the CLT16 fair catch by #21 H.Rutledge at CLT16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:1386% → 85%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
85.7%
(01:35) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #7 C.Williams caught at CLT14, for 16 yards to the CLT32 (#46 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
85.8%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT30, for 1 yard to the CLT33 (#27 A.Turnbow)Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-6
85.6%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales sacked for loss of 6 yards to the CLT27 (#2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+12
84.5%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #7 C.Williams caught at CLT30, for 12 yards to the CLT39 (#46 A.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
85.0%
(00:11) #44 I.Kelly punt 61 yards to the CIT00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0215% → 27%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.4%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush right for 2 yards loss to the CIT23 (#19 K.Schmitz; #95 D.Ancrum)Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+19
85.4%
(14:13) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass complete short right to #44 S.Boyle caught at CIT40, for 19 yards to the CIT42 (#3 D.Womack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
84.3%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 S.Boyle rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIT44 (#19 K.Schmitz; #30 S.Bowman)Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+56
72.8%
(13:00) Shotgun #44 S.Boyle rush right for 56 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:48, 1ST DOWN #90 E.Kiely kick attempt good (H: #1 J.Weil, LS: #50 T.DiLiegro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:5178% → 88%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+38
78.2%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete deep middle to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT33, for 38 yards to the CIT24 (#29 D.McGruder), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
79.9%
(11:55) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the CIT21 (#12 J.Mosley; #32 T.Elam)Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
79.6%
(11:19) Shotgun #21 H.Rutledge rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CIT17 (#2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
78.3%
(10:41) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT13, for 4 yards to the CIT13 QB hurried by #12 J.Mosley (#29 D.McGruder), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
79.1%
(10:01) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush left for 11 yards gain to the CIT02 (#11 P.Betts; #20 K.Bridges), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.8%
(09:22) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush left for 1 yard gain to the CIT01 (#54 N.Porada)Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.7%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 0 yards to the CIT01 (#8 S.Rogers)Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
77.4%
PENALTY CLT False Start (#81 B.Rhoads) 5 yards from CIT01 to CIT06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
77.3%
PENALTY CLT False Start (#17 G.McGee) 5 yards from CIT06 to CIT11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
87.6%
(07:44) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:38. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #44 I.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #33 H.Searcy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5716% → 39%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.9%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass complete short left to #82 D.Abdullah caught at CIT30, for 2 yards to the CIT27 (#12 C.Clinkscales)Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
83.5%
(06:56) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 0 yards to the CIT27 (#13 G.Willis; #10 J.Wall III)Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+41
84.3%
(06:09) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass complete deep left to #82 D.Abdullah caught at CLT35, for 41 yards to the CLT32 (#12 C.Clinkscales), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
79.8%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 S.Boyle rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT28 (#28 C.Allen)Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
79.6%
(04:55) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush left for 4 yards gain to the CLT24 (#9 C.Simpson)Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+9
80.8%
(04:13) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush right for 9 yards gain to the CLT15 (#19 K.Schmitz), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
79.1%
(03:34) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT09 (#10 J.Wall III; #15 A.Tifase)Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
78.9%
(03:08) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT07 (#9 C.Simpson; #95 D.Ancrum)Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+6
80.2%
(02:21) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush right for 6 yards gain to the CLT01 (#0 C.Gill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.5%
(01:51) No Huddle #8 N.Billoups rush right for 0 yards to the CLT01 (#3 D.Womack) PENALTY CLT Offside (#95 D.Ancrum). NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.6%
(01:33) #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:32 #90 E.Kiely kick attempt good (H: #1 J.Weil, LS: #50 T.DiLiegro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5772% → 67%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
71.5%
(01:25) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #7 C.Williams caught at CLT33, for 1 yard to the CLT39 (#8 S.Rogers)Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
71.0%
(00:43) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Barnes thrown to CLT45 broken up by #26 J.SaddlerSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
69.3%
(00:40) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short middle to #8 Z.Collick thrown to CIT45Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+49
67.2%
(00:33) #44 I.Kelly punt 45 yards to the CIT16 #4 B.Knauth return 49 yards to the CLT35 (#44 I.Kelly)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 18TD
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:0340% → 70%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
59.8%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass complete short right to #89 W.Hobgood caught at CLT34, for 6 yards to the CLT29 (#10 J.Wall III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
59.1%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass complete short right to #44 S.Boyle caught at CLT26, for 3 yards to the CLT26 (#99 J.Doss)Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+4
60.2%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CLT22 (#9 C.Simpson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
57.5%
(13:41) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 19 yards gain to the CLT03 (#18 C.Usher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
57.2%
PENALTY CIT False Start (#75 D.Murillo) 5 yards from CLT03 to CLT08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
56.7%
(12:52) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT02 (#1 J.Croft Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.0%
(12:15) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush left for 2 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:11 #90 E.Kiely kick attempt good (H: #1 J.Weil, LS: #50 T.DiLiegro)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:5740% → 30%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.6%
(12:11) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT26 (#5 M.Bonneau Jr.; #12 J.Mosley)Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
38.8%
(11:35) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush right for 18 yards gain to the CLT44 (#17 T.McLeod; #25 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
41.7%
(10:54) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Hampton thrown to CIT47Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
40.0%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush right for 9 yards gain to the CIT47 (#11 P.Betts; #99 T.Duncan)Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
40.5%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 0 yards to the CIT47 (#2 Z.Brown; #12 J.Mosley)Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
37.6%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIT45 (#20 K.Bridges; #99 T.Duncan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
39.9%
(08:49) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #1 J.Barnes caught at CIT27, for 20 yards to the CIT25, out of bounds at CIT25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.4%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush left for 2 yards gain to the CIT23 (#2 Z.Brown; #46 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
40.0%
(07:34) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #5 K.Alexander caught at CIT21, for 5 yards to the CIT18 (#46 A.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
34.9%
(06:56) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush left for 0 yards to the CIT18 (#34 J.Wright; #98 D.Alexander)Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+2
29.9%
(06:08) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIT16 (#34 J.Wright), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2180% → 83%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
19.6%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 S.Boyle rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIT17 (#0 C.Gill; #30 S.Bowman)Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+6
16.8%
(05:18) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush left for 6 yards gain to the CIT23 (#30 S.Bowman)Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
16.1%
(04:38) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIT25 (#9 C.Simpson)Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+5
16.0%
PENALTY CIT Delay Of Game 5 yards from CIT25 to CIT20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+2
16.7%
(03:47) #1 J.Weil punt 44 yards to the CLT36 #21 H.Rutledge return 14 yards to the CIT50 (#3 J.Woodard), out of bounds PENALTY CLT Illegal Block in Back (#28 C.Allen) 10 yards from CLT38 to CLT28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 3:0224% → 64%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
23.7%
(03:35) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #1 J.Barnes caught at CLT25, for 4 yards to the CLT32 (#11 P.Betts; #54 N.Porada)Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
23.3%
(02:56) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short left to #3 L.Mauldin thrown to CLT34Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+10
22.0%
(02:53) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #2 J.Hampton caught at CLT37, for 10 yards to the CLT42 (#20 K.Bridges), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
23.9%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales rush right for 5 yards gain to the CLT47 (#2 Z.Brown)Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
22.5%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short right to #5 K.Alexander thrown to CIT48 broken up by #2 Z.BrownSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
20.5%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #85 J.Jeffares caught at CIT47, for 6 yards to the CIT47, out of bounds at CIT47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete deep middle to #89 D.Eley thrown to CIT26Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
21.3%
(01:51) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #17 G.McGee caught at CIT43, for 4 yards to the CIT43 (#2 Z.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+22
22.1%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT38, for 22 yards to the CIT21 (#32 T.Elam), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
28.2%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Barnes thrown to CIT12Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+18
26.0%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #1 J.Barnes caught at CIT03, for 18 yards to the CIT03, out of bounds at CIT03, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
28.8%
(01:30) Shotgun #5 K.Alexander rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIT01 (#32 T.Elam)Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
27.0%
PENALTY CLT False Start (#5 K.Alexander) 5 yards from CIT01 to CIT06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
24.4%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Barnes thrown to CIT00Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
63.6%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT00, for 6 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #44 I.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #33 H.Searcy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 22END OF HALF
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:1549% → 48%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
51.5%
(00:24) #5 G.Garcia rush left for 14 yards gain to the CIT39 (#3 D.Womack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
47.9%
(00:20) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass incomplete short left to #82 D.Abdullah thrown to CIT48Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
48.8%
(00:14) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups rush left for 4 yards gain to the CIT43, out of bounds at CIT43Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
47.6%
(00:07) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass incomplete short left to #4 B.Knauth thrown to CLT38Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+29
51.6%
(00:02) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush left for 29 yards gain to the CLT28 (#28 C.Allen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 23TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
(00:00) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass incomplete short right to #5 G.Garcia thrown to CLT22 QB hurried by #7 D.BurgessSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
41.7%
Gavin Garcia 25 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
65.6%
(00:00) Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush right for 5 yards loss to the CIT30 (#5 M.Bonneau Jr.)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+11
62.3%
(00:00) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales rush middle for 11 yards gain to the CIT19 (#34 J.Wright; #12 J.Mosley)Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+11
63.3%
(00:00) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT15, for 11 yards to the CIT08 (#12 J.Mosley; #5 M.Bonneau Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
65.6%
Cole Gonzales 8 Yd Run (Ian Kelly Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 86%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
65.6%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Williams rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CIT18 (#10 D.Sheppard; #32 T.Elam)Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
86.1%
(00:00) Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short right to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT00, for 18 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #9 C.Gonzales pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0024% → 59%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
75.7%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CLT19 (#0 C.Gill)Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
74.4%
(00:00) Shotgun #44 S.Boyle rush right for 0 yards to the CLT19 (#95 D.Ancrum; #19 K.Schmitz)Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+13
82.3%
(00:00) Shotgun #8 N.Billoups pass complete short right to #6 I.Zamor caught at CLT10, for 13 yards to the CLT06 (#13 G.Willis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
74.4%
(00:00) Shotgun #5 G.Garcia rush right for 4 yards gain to the CLT02 (#95 D.Ancrum; #7 D.Burgess)Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.1%
Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-41.1
TD · Q4 0:24
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 C.Gonzales pass complete short left to #2 J.Hampton caught at CIT00, for 6 yards to the CIT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:24 #44 I.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #33 H.Searcy)
+39.2
TD · OT2 0:00
Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-33.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com