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CONN

UConn 21 at Miami (OH) 24

M-OH
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:17 · (00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep middle to #11 R.Treadway thrown to MIA10 QB hurried by #43 G.Lyons, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense+13.3Pregame prior+0.0Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Time remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:08: (06:14) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush left for 10 yards gain to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:08, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman) — M-OH win probability +7.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:50: Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete deep left to #81 B.Loftus caught at CON29, for 57 yards to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:50, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman) — M-OH win probability +16.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:48: (03:51) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at CON00, for 11 yards to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:48, 1ST DOWN — M-OH win probability +13.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:49: (01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:49, 1ST DOWN — CONN win probability +14.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 1:58: (01:58) #31 B.Stidham field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 01:58 — M-OH win probability +23.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:01M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:23CONN 4th & 1 at M-OH 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:05M-OH 4th & 1 at CONN 26, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−4.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:54CONN 4th & 10 at M-OH 42, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:46M-OH 4th & 1 at CONN 26, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.1%−1.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−5.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:00M-OH 4th & 1 at CONN 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−1.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:07CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 40, up 12
    Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01CONN 4th & 8 at M-OH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:41M-OH 4th & 11 at CONN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−8.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:11CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:40M-OH 4th & 10 at CONN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−13.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:35CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−4.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:19M-OH 4th & 2 at CONN 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−7.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:58M-OH 4th & 1 at CONN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−11.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−17.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:58M-OH 4th & 5 at CONN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−28.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:17CONN 4th & 10 at M-OH 38, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.0 ptsWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%−6.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%
    38% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−11.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:04CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:50M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4341% → 43%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
59.0%
(14:57) #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at CON44, for 24 yards to the CON49 (#1 D.Tatum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
59.0%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIA48 (#15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
58.9%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #19 J.Brown caught at MIA43, for 5 yards to the MIA43 (#24 M.Yharbrough) PENALTY CON Holding (#78 I.Switzer) 10 yards from MIA48 to CON42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+2
59.0%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush left for 2 yards gain to the CON44 (#24 M.Yharbrough; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+20
59.1%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #19 J.Brown caught at MIA37, for 20 yards to the MIA36 (#12 K.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
58.8%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA35 (#15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
58.7%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA30 (#43 G.Lyons) PENALTY MIA Personal Foul (#17 B.Minich) 15 yards from MIA30 to MIA15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
58.6%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA07 (#20 Z.Scott)Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
57.1%
(11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #19 J.Brown caught at MIA00, for 7 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:04, 1ST DOWN #98 J.O'Connor kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Warner, LS: #59 D.Laganga)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5458% → 57%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.7%
(11:01) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #8 D.Witten thrown to MIA40Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.7%
(10:54) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 4 yards gain to the MIA39 (#13 J.Price)Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
57.4%
(10:15) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep left to #24 S.Smith thrown to CON23Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
57.2%
(10:07) #34 P.Stainton punt 45 yards to the CON16 fair catch by #9 J.Allen at CON16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:3143% → 47%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
57.2%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush right for 8 yards gain to the CON24 (#0 A.Knighten), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
56.7%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #5 S.Porter caught at CON24, for 0 yards to the CON24 QB hurried by #20 Z.Scott PENALTY MIA Personal Foul (#43 G.Lyons) 15 yards from CON24 to CON39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
56.4%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush right for 3 yards gain to the CON42 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
55.9%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short right to #17 T.Williams thrown to CON42 QB hurried by #43 G.LyonsSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+11
56.0%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #23 C.Bowers caught at CON40, for 11 yards to the MIA47 (#12 K.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
55.5%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short middle to #5 S.Porter thrown to MIA35 broken up by #12 K.MartinSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
55.5%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush right for 9 yards gain to the MIA38 (#1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
55.1%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA38 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+38
53.5%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush right for 38 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:23, 1ST DOWN #98 J.O'Connor kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Warner, LS: #59 D.Laganga) #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 48 yds · 6:1155% → 50%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.0%
(06:22) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA27 (#15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 0
-4
55.8%
(05:37) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIA26, for 4 yards loss to the MIA23 (#6 R.Dorilas)Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+20
54.0%
(05:17) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #1 M.Huggins caught at MIA36, for 20 yards to the MIA43 (#13 J.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
54.7%
(04:42) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA47 (#15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
54.8%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at MIA44, for 8 yards to the CON45 (#9 Z.Saez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
53.6%
(03:32) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at CON38, for 7 yards to the CON38 (#12 S.Suchanic)Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
53.3%
(02:46) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CON35 (#9 Z.Saez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
52.8%
(02:08) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 4 yards gain to the CON31 (#4 B.Moore; #37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
52.5%
(01:26) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CON26 (#2 T.Mullix; #37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
50.9%
(00:46) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 0 yards to the CON26 (#52 J.Mickens)Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-1
50.3%
(00:05) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CON27 (#0 K.Sherman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
48.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 8 yards to the CON35 (#20 Z.Scott), fumble by #7 K.Osborne recovered by MIA #0 A.Knighten at CON35 #0 A.Knighten return 5 yards to the CON38 fumbled by #0 A.Knighten at CON38 forced by #8 Z.Lang recovered by CON #8 Z.Lang at CON30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1852% → 54%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
48.1%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #8 Z.Lang thrown to CON39Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
48.2%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CON38 (#3 M.McCain; #1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+8
47.3%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #5 S.Porter caught at CON44, for 8 yards to the CON46 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
46.4%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MIA45 (#1 D.Tatum), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
45.3%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA42 (#12 K.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.9%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA42 (#15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
44.9%
(11:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #8 Z.Lang thrown to MIA30Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
45.0%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Willoughby thrown to MIA25Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
45.7%
(11:00) #49 T.Warner punt 32 yards to the MIA10 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 4:3346% → 45%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
45.9%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 4 yards gain to the MIA14 (#14 D.Aladuge)Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+31
45.5%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #8 D.Witten caught at MIA28, for 31 yards to the MIA45 (#4 B.Moore), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
45.8%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Smith rush left for 5 yards gain to the MIA50 (#4 B.Moore), out of bounds PENALTY CON Horse Collar Tackle (#4 B.Moore) 15 yards from MIA50 to CON35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
47.1%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CON32 (#20 L.Murphy; #37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
46.7%
(08:23) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 2 yards gain to the CON30 (#37 H.Pegg; #2 T.Mullix)Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
44.4%
(07:40) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at CON26, for 4 yards to the CON26 (#7 T.McKinstry)Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+16
39.6%
(07:00) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #18 B.Isom caught at CON19, for 16 yards to the CON10 (#13 J.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+16
43.7%
(07:00) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #18 B.Isom caught at CON19, for 16 yards to the CON10 (#13 J.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
50.8%
(06:14) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush left for 10 yards gain to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:08, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
44.5%
(06:14) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush left for 10 yards gain to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:08, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4059% → 61%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
41.5%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #5 S.Porter thrown to CON19 QB hurried by #99 O.AlexanderSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+26
41.6%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush middle for 26 yards gain to the CON34 (#8 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
40.2%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CON32 (#8 C.Young; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+3
40.2%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 3 yards gain to the CON35 (#13 D.Yharbrough)Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+5
39.8%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #86 M.Ragan caught at CON40, for 5 yards to the CON40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
39.1%
(03:13) #49 T.Warner punt 47 yards to the MIA13, out of bounds at MIA13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:0945% → 61%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
45.0%
(03:05) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep middle to #24 S.Smith thrown to CON40 broken up by #12 S.SuchanicSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
45.1%
(03:05) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep middle to #24 S.Smith thrown to CON40 broken up by #12 S.SuchanicSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
44.6%
(02:58) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIA10, for 15 yards to the MIA28 (#17 S.Riser-Pressley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
44.9%
(02:16) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep right to #8 D.Witten thrown to CON40Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
58.9%
(02:10) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short to #1 M.Huggins PENALTY CON Pass Interference (#6 R.Dorilas) 15 yards from MIA28 to MIA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
44.5%
(02:10) PENALTY CON Pass Interference (#6 R.Dorilas) 15 yards from MIA28 to MIA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
61.1%
Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete deep left to #81 B.Loftus caught at CON29, for 57 yards to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:50, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
61.0%
(01:56) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete deep left to #81 B.Loftus caught at CON29, for 57 yards to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:50, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 1:4045% → 46%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.4%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 5 yards gain to the CON30 (#20 Z.Scott)Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
54.6%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #19 J.Brown caught at CON45, for 15 yards to the CON45 (#26 E.Coppess), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
52.8%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete deep left to #14 C.Abshire caught at MIA30, for 25 yards to the MIA30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
50.4%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #83 X.Watson thrown to MIA14Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
50.0%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA30 (#3 M.McCain; #22 B.Jobe)Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+2
51.2%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #19 J.Brown caught at MIA28, for 2 yards to the MIA28 (#0 A.Knighten)Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
54.1%
(00:00) #98 J.O'Connor field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #49 T.Warner, LS: #59 D.Laganga), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 5:1259% → 59%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
59.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIA32, for 14 yards to the MIA39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
60.6%
(14:26) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA42 (#3 E.Carter; #2 T.Mullix)Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-2
61.7%
(13:42) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MIA40 (#2 T.Mullix)Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+35
59.1%
(13:03) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete deep left to #18 B.Isom caught at CON25, for 35 yards to the CON25 (#4 B.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
63.2%
(11:51) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CON26 (#3 E.Carter)Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-9
63.2%
(11:07) Shotgun #16 D.McComb sacked for loss of 9 yards to the CON35 (#0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 20
OPP 35
+9
59.7%
(10:29) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at CON33, for 9 yards to the CON26 (#12 S.Suchanic; #0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
58.5%
(09:46) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 09:41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2545% → 43%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
55.5%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CON32 (#15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
53.8%
(09:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #3 K.Christian caught at CON34, for 3 yards to the CON35 (#8 C.Young; #26 E.Coppess)Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
53.9%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left thrown to CON35 broken up by #8 C.YoungSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
56.6%
(08:16) #49 T.Warner punt 48 yards to the MIA17 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:1660% → 78%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
59.7%
(08:10) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep left to #8 D.Witten thrown to CON40Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
59.3%
(08:03) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #24 S.Smith caught at MIA15, for 7 yards to the MIA24 (#14 D.Aladuge)Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+32
59.0%
(07:23) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush left for 32 yards gain to the CON44 (#13 J.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.1%
(06:37) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right to #18 B.Isom thrown to CON42 QB hurried by #3 E.CarterSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
63.8%
(06:30) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #24 S.Smith caught at CON47, for 1 yard to the CON43 (#10 J.Davis), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+10
62.7%
(06:01) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #18 B.Isom caught at CON35, for 10 yards to the CON33 (#10 J.Davis; #5 R.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
65.8%
(05:18) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CON34 (#5 R.Williams)Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+23
65.3%
(04:37) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short middle to #0 R.Nelson caught at CON28, for 23 yards to the CON11 (#7 T.McKinstry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
78.3%
(03:51) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at CON00, for 11 yards to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:4826% → 42%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.5%
(03:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush left for 1 yard gain to the CON37 (#92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+53
75.0%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete deep middle to #5 S.Porter caught at MIA13, for 53 yards to the MIA10 (#12 K.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
70.4%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA10 (#92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
72.2%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MIA01 (#43 G.Lyons)Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.9%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:5861% → 62%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
61.2%
(00:47) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #81 B.Loftus caught at MIA32, for 10 yards to the MIA40 (#22 J.Martin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+38
63.3%
(00:15) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #2 C.Jenkins Jr caught at CON43, for 38 yards to the CON22 (#13 J.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
67.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep middle to #24 S.Smith thrown to CON00Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
67.3%
(14:54) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep right to #81 B.Loftus thrown to CON00 broken up by #37 H.PeggSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
65.3%
(14:48) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete deep right to #1 M.Huggins thrown to CON00Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
62.0%
(14:43) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 14:40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0444% → 41%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
56.2%
(14:39) No Huddle #3 K.Christian rush middle for 38 yards gain (2) to the MIA40 (#13 D.Yharbrough) PENALTY CON Holding (#56 T.Walker) 10 yards from CON24 to CON14Similar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 18
OWN 14
0
56.6%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Brown thrown to MIA40Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+4
56.8%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #2 J.Willoughby caught at CON13, for 4 yards to the CON18 (#15 B.Myrick; #43 G.Lyons)Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+2
58.2%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #23 C.Bowers caught at CON15, for 2 yards to the CON20 (#3 M.McCain; #8 C.Young), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
59.4%
(12:41) #49 T.Warner punt 32 yards to the MIA48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0965% → 63%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.8%
(12:35) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short right thrown to MIA49Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
64.0%
(12:24) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 7 yards gain to the CON45 (#20 L.Murphy)Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
65.1%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CON44 (#9 Z.Saez; #2 T.Mullix)Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
63.4%
(11:25) #34 P.Stainton punt 44 yards to the CON00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 2:1044% → 42%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
55.6%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 4 yards to the CON16 (#92 R.Andrews, #52 M.Moore Jr)Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+4
56.5%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CON20 (#4 B.Rice)Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
57.8%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass intercepted by #8 C.Young at CON43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:1667% → 89%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
66.7%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short middle to #24 S.Smith caught at CON40, for 3 yards to the CON40 (#37 H.Pegg; #0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
65.6%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CON39 (#44 J.Lista; #15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
64.9%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short middle to #18 B.Isom caught at CON34, for 5 yards to the CON34 (#6 R.Dorilas)Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
63.3%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Rice rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CON32 (#4 B.Moore; #37 H.Pegg), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
68.7%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CON26 (#4 B.Moore; #37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
68.7%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CON23 (#4 B.Moore; #37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
65.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CON20 (#95 M.Hills III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
68.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 0 yards to the CON20 (#44 J.Lista)Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
68.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short middle to #81 B.Loftus caught at CON22, for 5 yards to the CON15 (#44 J.Lista)Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
65.6%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 0 yards to the CON15 (#97 C.Campbell)Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
88.9%
(01:58) #31 B.Stidham field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 01:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 37 yds · 1:2520% → 20%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
79.9%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #86 M.Ragan caught at CON39, for 13 yards to the CON38 (#17 B.Minich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
78.5%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CON39 (#43 G.Lyons)Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
78.6%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at CON42, for 3 yards to the CON42 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+14
78.5%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #86 M.Ragan caught at MIA49, for 9 yards to the MIA49 (#17 B.Minich), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CON False Start (#78 I.Switzer) 5 yards from MIA49 to CON46Similar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
76.8%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep right to #11 R.Treadway thrown to MIA30Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
77.5%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA49 (#17 B.Minich)Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+11
77.5%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #86 M.Ragan caught at MIA38, for 11 yards to the MIA38 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
75.1%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Brown thrown to MIA05Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
75.3%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.Willoughby thrown to MIA10Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
77.5%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short right to #5 S.Porter thrown to MIA29Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
80.2%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep middle to #11 R.Treadway thrown to MIA10 QB hurried by #43 G.Lyons, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
94.4%
(00:16) Kneel down by #6 C.Heavner at MIA37 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:58
(01:58) #31 B.Stidham field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 01:58
+23.3
TD · Q2 1:50
Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete deep left to #81 B.Loftus caught at CON29, for 57 yards to the CON00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:50, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)
+16.6
TD · Q3 0:49
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:49, 1ST DOWN
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com