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2026 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Pregame projection
Points model v7
Projected score
TXST29
FRES27
TXST by 2
Win chance
TXST58%
FRES 42%TXST 58%
Projected total
57pts
Combined points
Explore the range of outcomes
58%
chance Texas State wins
42% Fresno State wins
← FRES winsTXST wins →
-35-21-7+7+21+35
50% of outcomes
FRES by 6 to TXST by 11
80% of outcomes
FRES by 19 to TXST by 22
90% of outcomes
FRES by 27 to TXST by 29
Median
TXST by 3
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com