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BOIS

Boise State 38 at Fresno State 31

FRES
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:31 · (08:36) #41 N.Verdugo punt 41 yards to the BOIS10 fair catch by #34 J.Lane at BOIS10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior−23.7Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:56: Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #0 E.Avit caught at BOIS00, for 10 yards to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:56, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi) — FRES win probability +9.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 14:52: #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #0 D.Riley caught at FRES40, for 44 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +11.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:14: Gavin Correia 15 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Jayden Mandal Pass to Jahlil McClain for Two-Point Conversion) — FRES win probability +15.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:34: #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 01:34 — BOIS win probability +11.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:36: #38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi), clock 00:36 — FRES win probability +15.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:31FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00BOIS 4th & 3 at FRES 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−1.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:19BOIS 4th & 1 at FRES 3, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−6.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:06FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 41, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:32BOIS 4th & 16 at BOIS 22, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02BOIS 4th & 4 at FRES 32, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%−1.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00BOIS 4th & 2 at FRES 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−2.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−2.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:08BOIS 4th & 6 at FRES 21, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−10.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:02FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 47, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:02BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 48, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.5%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:34BOIS 4th & 12 at FRES 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:58FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:10BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:12BOIS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:45FRES Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:42BOIS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:56FRES Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:52BOIS Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:14FRES Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5424% → 28%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FRES28 (#43 J.Ripp; #4 T.Anderson)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
24.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES35, for 25 yards to the BOIS47 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
25.1%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FRES50, for 15 yards to the BOIS32 (#4 T.Anderson; #6 J.Washington Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
25.5%
(13:01) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Farrar thrown to BOIS22Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
25.6%
(12:56) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #0 E.Avit caught at BOIS27, for 12 yards to the BOIS20 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
25.9%
(12:21) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush left for 8 yards gain to the BOIS12 (#1 B.Phelps; #9 D.Ganter Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
26.3%
(11:51) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush left for 4 yards gain to the BOIS08 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
26.6%
(11:10) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS00Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
26.7%
(11:05) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS00Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
27.7%
(11:01) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:58 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3673% → 74%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.5%
(10:51) No Huddle #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOIS28 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
26.5%
(10:17) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 72 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10, 1ST DOWN #15 Z.Martinez rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:2226% → 27%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
26.4%
(09:56) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 24 yards gain to the FRES49 (#1 B.Phelps), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
27.1%
(09:20) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 0 yards to the FRES49 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
27.2%
(08:44) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS45Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
26.8%
(08:40) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS40 PENALTY FRES Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
26.8%
(08:36) #41 N.Verdugo punt 41 yards to the BOIS10 fair catch by #34 J.Lane at BOIS10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 7:1273% → 76%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
27.4%
(08:28) #0 D.Riley rush left for 9 yards gain to the BOIS19 (#27 G.Grimes), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+5
27.5%
(07:58) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #85 T.Favors caught at BOIS24, for 5 yards to the BOIS24 (#27 G.Grimes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
27.6%
(07:18) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BOIS36 (#4 E.Tierney; #5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
27.7%
(06:43) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #25 Q.Brown caught at BOIS39, for 3 yards to the BOIS39, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
27.7%
(06:04) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 14 yards gain to the FRES47 (#4 E.Tierney; #7 L.Mouzon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
27.6%
(05:30) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES46 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+10
27.9%
(04:46) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #25 Q.Brown caught at FRES40, for 10 yards to the FRES36 (#27 G.Grimes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
28.1%
(04:12) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES34 (#95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+3
28.0%
(03:29) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FRES31 (#35 T.Khajavi; #1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
28.5%
(02:50) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #82 B.Ford caught at FRES30, for 6 yards to the FRES25 (#6 J.Jacks; #8 M.Owusu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
27.7%
(02:10) #26 S.Gaines rush left for 3 yards gain to the FRES22 (#11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
27.9%
(01:22) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to FRES22 broken up by #89 M.HinesSimilar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
24.3%
(01:17) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #85 T.Favors caught at FRES25, for 22 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:12, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:2125% → 30%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
25.1%
(01:06) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.McClain thrown to BOIS45 PENALTY BOIS Roughing The Passer (#99 M.Madrie) 15 yards from FRES26 to FRES41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
25.8%
(00:56) Shotgun #3 K.Martin pass incomplete short left to #0 E.Avit thrown to FRES47Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
30.1%
(00:51) Shotgun #3 K.Martin pass complete short left to #0 E.Avit caught at FRES45, for 59 yards to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:45, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD #6 B.Donelson pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 7:5771% → 77%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.5%
(00:43) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOIS28 (#99 L.Goodspeed)Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
29.6%
(00:04) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #83 Q.Williams Jr. caught at BOIS35, for 10 yards to the BOIS38 (#7 L.Mouzon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
29.0%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #82 B.Ford caught at BOIS47, for 9 yards to the BOIS47 (#5 S.Harris), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
28.6%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOIS49 (#35 T.Khajavi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
28.7%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BOIS50 (#89 M.Hines; #36 T.Nix)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
50
+6
28.6%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #0 D.Riley caught at FRES45, for 6 yards to the FRES44 (#36 T.Nix)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
28.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #83 Q.Williams Jr. thrown to FRES43 broken up by #13 C.ColeSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+17
29.3%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #88 M.Wagner caught at FRES40, for 17 yards to the FRES27 (#13 C.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
27.9%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #0 D.Riley caught at FRES12, for 15 yards to the FRES12, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
27.9%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES11 (#27 G.Grimes; #11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
27.9%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #85 T.Favors thrown to FRES00 broken up by #5 S.HarrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+8
28.6%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #5 A.Wright caught at FRES05, for 8 yards to the FRES03 (#7 L.Mouzon). The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #88 M.Wagner caught at FRES02, for 11 yards to the FRES00 fumbled by #88 M.Wagner at FRES02 forced by #7 L.Mouzon recovered by FRES #54 S.Noa at FRES00, End Of Play)Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+2
30.7%
#4 M.Madsen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES01 (#8 M.Owusu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
28.8%
#4 M.Madsen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:49 PENALTY BOIS Illegal Formation 5 yards from FRES01 to FRES06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
29.0%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES04 (#11 D.Hampsten; #99 L.Goodspeed)Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+10
29.2%
#0 D.Riley rush left for 4 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 08:58 PENALTY BOIS Holding (#78 T.Ethridge) 10 yards from FRES04 to FRES14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
29.7%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush left for 2 yards gain to the FRES12 (#6 J.Jacks) PENALTY FRES Personal Foul (#1 K.Thunderbird) 6 yards from FRES12 to FRES06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
29.2%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #86 A.Terry thrown to FRES00Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
29.2%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FRES02 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.0%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:42 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3626% → 25%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #1 J.McClain caught at FRES22, for 6 yards to the FRES31 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
26.6%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush right for 6 yards gain to the FRES37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
26.8%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep left to #11 J.Farrar thrown to BOIS42 QB hurried by #20 K.HallSimilar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
26.7%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #0 E.Avit caught at FRES40, for 4 yards to the FRES41 (#6 J.Washington Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
26.6%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS33Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
25.2%
#41 N.Verdugo punt 43 yards to the BOIS16 #34 J.Lane return 0 yards to the BOIS16 (#13 C.Cole)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3476% → 75%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
23.9%
#0 D.Riley rush right for 8 yards gain to the BOIS24 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #7 L.Mouzon)Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+4
23.2%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BOIS28 (#8 M.Owusu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.4%
No Huddle #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #17 A.Jones thrown to BOIS35Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
24.1%
PENALTY BOIS False Start (#52 S.Taufa) 5 yards from BOIS28 to BOIS23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
24.3%
No Huddle #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #5 A.Wright thrown to BOIS30Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 15
OWN 23
-1
24.7%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #0 D.Riley caught at BOIS20, for 1 yard loss to the BOIS22 (#0 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 16
OWN 22
0
25.2%
#37 O.Doyle punt 37 yards to the FRES41 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FRES41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:3627% → 39%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
26.7%
Shotgun #20 O.Guevara rush right for 1 yard loss to the FRES40 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
26.3%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FRES42Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+15
25.6%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS20 PENALTY BOIS Pass Interference (#8 S.Smith) 15 yards from FRES40 to BOIS45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
27.8%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS40Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
27.4%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #1 J.McClain caught at BOIS37, for 11 yards to the BOIS34 (#55 M.Tuioti), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
28.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS20 QB hurried by #4 T.AndersonSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
28.1%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #86 G.Correia caught at BOIS35, for 10 yards to the BOIS24 (#1 B.Phelps; #55 M.Tuioti), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
28.3%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #0 E.Avit thrown to BOIS13Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+14
28.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BOIS10 (#1 B.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
38.5%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #0 E.Avit caught at BOIS00, for 10 yards to the BOIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:56, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:4866% → 74%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
33.8%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #82 B.Ford caught at BOIS45, for 13 yards to the BOIS45 (#31 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
32.5%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle thrown to BOIS45 broken up by #89 M.HinesSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
33.0%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #82 B.Ford caught at FRES40, for 17 yards to the FRES38 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
30.7%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to FRES39Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
30.8%
PENALTY BOIS False Start (#52 S.Taufa) 5 yards from FRES38 to FRES43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+7
32.3%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at FRES47, for 7 yards to the FRES36 (#1 K.Thunderbird), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+4
31.2%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at FRES32, for 4 yards to the FRES32, out of bounds at FRES32Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
26.4%
#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 00:02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 7:5272% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
28.4%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BOIS22 (#27 G.Grimes)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+5
27.7%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOIS27 (#7 L.Mouzon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
28.1%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #88 M.Wagner caught at BOIS43, for 17 yards to the BOIS44 (#3 J.Carrillo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.6%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #5 A.Wright thrown to FRES40 broken up by #31 K.Harris QB hurried by #0 D.LaffitteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
27.0%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOIS49 (#99 L.Goodspeed; #89 M.Hines)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+11
26.8%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #83 Q.Williams Jr. caught at FRES40, for 11 yards to the FRES40 (#7 L.Mouzon; #99 L.Goodspeed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
26.2%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FRES35 (#5 S.Harris; #1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
25.3%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES33 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
26.3%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at FRES32, for 1 yard to the FRES32 (#1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+7
28.0%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #5 A.Wright caught at FRES25, for 7 yards to the FRES25, out of bounds at FRES25, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
25.3%
#0 D.Riley rush right for 4 yards gain to the FRES21 (#6 J.Jacks; #1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
25.3%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #5 A.Wright thrown to FRES02Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
26.2%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #26 S.Gaines caught at FRES21, for 0 yards to the FRES21 (#11 D.Hampsten; #1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
22.2%
#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 07:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0625% → 25%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.0%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #0 E.Avit caught at FRES30, for 9 yards to the FRES34 (#8 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
27.1%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush right for 4 yards gain to the FRES38 (#95 M.Stege; #43 J.Ripp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
26.2%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush right for 4 yards gain to the FRES42 (#8 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
27.4%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush right for 3 yards gain to the FRES45 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan; #42 Z.Lewis)Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
27.0%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #0 E.Avit caught at FRES47, for 2 yards to the FRES47, out of bounds at FRES47Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
24.8%
#41 N.Verdugo punt 41 yards to the BOIS12 fair catch by #34 J.Lane at BOIS12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 4:1078% → 94%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
21.7%
PENALTY BOIS False Start (#75 D.Metoyer) 5 yards from BOIS12 to BOIS07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+16
22.4%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 16 yards gain to the BOIS23 (#95 M.Noonan; #3 J.Carrillo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
21.5%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 17 yards gain to the BOIS40 (#42 L.Blumling), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
19.7%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #25 Q.Brown thrown to FRES20Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
20.0%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BOIS47 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
20.2%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BOIS48 (#0 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+7
21.3%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #17 A.Jones caught at BOIS50, for 7 yards to the FRES45 (#7 L.Mouzon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
19.2%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES44 (#36 T.Nix)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+44
6.1%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #0 D.Riley caught at FRES40, for 44 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:2913% → 28%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
12.8%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short middle to #86 G.Correia thrown to FRES45Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+17
12.4%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES40, for 17 yards to the FRES44, out of bounds at FRES44, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BOIS Personal Foul (#9 D.Ganter Jr.) 15 yards from FRES44 to BOIS41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
15.1%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BOIS44 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+17
14.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #1 J.McClain caught at BOIS32, for 17 yards to the BOIS27 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
16.4%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at BOIS25, for 8 yards to the BOIS19 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.; #20 K.Hall)Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+11
16.4%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #86 G.Correia caught at BOIS15, for 11 yards to the BOIS08 (#1 B.Phelps; #7 J.Mickey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
16.4%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOIS05 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+10
16.4%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to BOIS01 PENALTY FRES Pass Interference (#0 E.Avit) 10 yards from BOIS05 to BOIS15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
15.6%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short middle to #41 A.Chavez thrown to BOIS10Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
10.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #86 G.Correia thrown to BOIS00 PENALTY BOIS Personal Foul (#1 B.Phelps) 8 yards from BOIS15 to BOIS07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
12.0%
Shotgun #20 O.Guevara rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BOIS10 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
12.0%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BOIS15 (#97 M.Edward)Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
27.6%
Gavin Correia 15 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Jayden Mandal Pass to Jahlil McClain for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16FG
18 plays · 53 yds · 7:4084% → 97%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.7%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOIS30 (#95 M.Noonan; #3 J.Carrillo)Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
15.5%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOIS35 (#89 M.Hines), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
15.5%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOIS41 (#11 D.Hampsten; #33 T.Powell)Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
14.1%
#0 D.Riley rush right for 4 yards gain to the BOIS45 (#3 J.Carrillo; #1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
14.1%
#0 D.Riley rush left for 13 yards gain to the FRES42 (#31 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
13.1%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES40 (#5 S.Harris; #35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
13.1%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FRES30 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
12.7%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FRES27 (#8 M.Owusu; #6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
12.6%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES25 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+5
13.1%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FRES20 (#1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
3.5%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES19 (#36 T.Nix; #8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
2.7%
#26 S.Gaines rush right for 5 yards gain to the FRES14 (#36 T.Nix; #11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-8
2.5%
#4 M.Madsen rush middle for 8 yards loss to the FRES22 (#95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
2.8%
#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 01:34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:584% → 21%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #6 B.Donelson caught at FRES30, for 8 yards to the FRES33 (#55 M.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
4.1%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short middle to #86 G.Correia thrown to FRES50Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+21
4.1%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #6 B.Donelson caught at FRES40, for 21 yards to the BOIS46 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
4.6%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #41 A.Chavez caught at BOIS40, for 6 yards to the BOIS40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+11
4.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at BOIS29, for 11 yards to the BOIS29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+47
20.8%
#38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi), clock 00:36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
2.8%
Kneel down by #4 M.Madsen at FRES47 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:36
#38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi), clock 00:36
+15.9
TD · Q4 9:14
Gavin Correia 15 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Jayden Mandal Pass to Jahlil McClain for Two-Point Conversion)
+15.6
TD · Q4 14:52
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #0 D.Riley caught at FRES40, for 44 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:52, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com