Try the model
ORST

Oregon State 56 at Colorado State 26

CSU
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · Kneel down by #2 B.Atkinson at CSU14 for loss of 2 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:03: (01:03) Shotgun #82 G.Milbourn rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:03 #28 C.Ojeda kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Winsor, LS: #47 T.Sanford) — ORST win probability +5.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:51: K'saan Farrar 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick) — CSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:55: Aaron Butler 30 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick) — ORST win probability +7.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:11: Eric Olsen 5 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Caleb Ojeda Kick) — ORST win probability +9.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:33: Jesse Legree 28 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Caleb Ojeda Kick) — ORST win probability +6.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:22CSU 4th & 1 at ORST 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:51CSU 4th & 1 at ORST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−8.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:49CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:52CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:30ORST 4th & 5 at CSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ORST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:20ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:03ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:24CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:51CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:55ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:11ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:33ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:26ORST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:22CSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:38ORST Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3468% → 68%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush right for 3 yards gain to the OSU28 (#77 J.Moran; #10 B.Kelley)Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
31.8%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU33 (#15 T.Moore; #77 J.Moran)Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
32.0%
(14:05) #23 A.Newberry rush left for 3 yards gain to the OSU36 (#8 A.Turner; #2 O.Diomande), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
32.1%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 8 yards gain to the OSU44 (#2 O.Diomande; #28 M.Pretto)Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
32.3%
(13:07) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #80 E.Olsen caught at OSU41, for 6 yards to the OSU50 (#29 X.Wimbush), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
50
+50
31.6%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete deep right to #12 J.Legree caught at CSU23, for 50 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:20, 1ST DOWN #28 C.Ojeda kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Winsor, LS: #47 T.Sanford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:5332% → 33%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
32.0%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 2 yards loss to the CSU23 (#44 T.Hickle)Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
32.0%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush left for 11 yards gain to the CSU34 (#36 D.Vickers)Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
32.2%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU37 (#44 T.Hickle; #22 I.Houi), 1ST DOWN. #22 I.Houi injured on the playSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+50
32.3%
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at CSU50, for 50 yards to the OSU13 (#4 T.Crandall), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
32.9%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 M.Brown rush left for 0 yards to the OSU13 (#97 T.Bailey; #99 N.Fisher) PENALTY CSU Illegal Shift declinedSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
33.0%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush left for 7 yards gain to the OSU06 (#12 G.Goodman)Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+2
32.9%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU04 (#2 A.Sullivan)Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
32.9%
(08:27) #11 D.Robinson rush left for 0 yards to the OSU04 (#12 G.Goodman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 7:1468% → 75%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
31.9%
(08:22) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OSU11 (#15 T.Moore; #96 T.Fitten)Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+5
32.1%
(07:49) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush right for 9 yards gain to the OSU20 (#15 T.Moore) PENALTY OSU Holding (#14 E.Freauff) 5 yards from OSU11 to OSU06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+15
32.1%
(07:23) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #8 D.Temple caught at OSU14, for 15 yards to the OSU21 (#15 T.Moore; #6 E.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
32.1%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 J.Reichle rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU25 (#9 S.Wright; #96 T.Fitten). #90 K.Shank injured on the playSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
32.2%
(06:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson rush left for 5 yards gain to the OSU30 (#2 O.Diomande; #55 D.Manuel)Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
31.8%
(05:47) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU32 (#15 T.Moore; #10 B.Kelley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
31.9%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #80 E.Olsen caught at OSU29, for 12 yards to the OSU44 (#17 C.Blocker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
31.5%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #80 E.Olsen caught at OSU48, for 5 yards to the OSU49 (#17 C.Blocker), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
31.5%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU48 (#10 B.Kelley; #56 K.Agurs), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+15
31.5%
(03:30) Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 15 yards gain to the CSU33 (#6 E.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
30.9%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #7 B.Hampton caught at CSU27, for 9 yards to the CSU24 QB hurried by #77 J.Moran (#2 O.Diomande), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+17
30.6%
(02:27) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson rush left for 17 yards gain to the CSU07 (#2 O.Diomande), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
30.4%
(01:42) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU02 (#15 T.Moore; #28 M.Pretto)Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.6%
(01:03) Shotgun #82 G.Milbourn rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:03 #28 C.Ojeda kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Winsor, LS: #47 T.Sanford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:2329% → 35%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
29.2%
(00:57) #1 M.Brown rush right for 46 yards gain to the OSU17 (#4 T.Crandall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
34.7%
Mel Brown 17 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
31.5%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the OSU29 (#56 K.Agurs), fumble by #2 B.Atkinson recovered by CSU #56 K.Agurs at OSU29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2535% → 41%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
34.7%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #10 T.Maher caught at OSU32, for 9 yards to the OSU20 (#2 A.Sullivan; #4 T.Crandall)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
34.8%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU18 (#44 T.Hickle; #2 A.Sullivan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
34.8%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #10 T.Maher caught at OSU12, for 8 yards to the OSU10 (#12 G.Goodman; #2 A.Sullivan)Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+7
35.0%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OSU03 (#2 A.Sullivan; #44 T.Hickle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
35.3%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 2 yards gain to the OSU01 (#1 D.Layne; #59 T.Pome'e)Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.2%
(12:39) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short middle to #30 D.Toy thrown to OSU00 broken up by #1 D.LayneSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.4%
(12:36) #11 D.Robinson rush right for 0 yards to the OSU01 (#2 A.Sullivan; #59 T.Pome'e)Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.9%
K'saan Farrar 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:4361% → 71%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
38.9%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU14 (#2 O.Diomande; #56 K.Agurs)Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+21
39.2%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #8 D.Temple caught at OSU13, for 21 yards to the OSU35 (#1 D.Brinson; #7 J.Lessard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
38.7%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #8 D.Temple caught at OSU46, for 18 yards to the CSU47 (#4 D.Phelps; #1 D.Brinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
37.0%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #16 C.Thomas caught at CSU42, for 9 yards to the CSU38 (#17 C.Blocker), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+8
36.3%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU30 (#29 X.Wimbush; #4 D.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
28.8%
Aaron Butler 30 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5133% → 32%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
33.3%
(08:49) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete deep left to #0 R.Vick, Jr. thrown to OSU40 broken up by #22 I.HouiSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
33.2%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Ross rush left for 4 yards gain to the CSU24 (#99 N.Fisher)Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
31.8%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Vereen thrown to CSU23Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
31.6%
(07:59) #99 C.Craig punt 28 yards to the OSU48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:2872% → 82%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
28.1%
(07:50) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #12 J.Legree caught at OSU43, for 13 yards to the CSU39 (#23 J.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
27.2%
(07:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU34 (#15 T.Moore; #28 M.Pretto)Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
26.7%
(06:48) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #0 A.Butler caught at CSU27, for 8 yards to the CSU26 (#17 C.Blocker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
26.8%
(06:12) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush left for 2 yards gain to the CSU24 (#5 D.Hagans; #23 J.Mitchell)Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
26.6%
(05:41) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #8 D.Temple caught at CSU19, for 9 yards to the CSU15 (#7 J.Lessard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
26.5%
(05:03) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #23 A.Newberry caught at CSU20, for 0 yards to the CSU15 (#5 D.Hagans; #93 R.Harrison) PENALTY OSU Illegal Motion declinedSimilar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
26.4%
(04:35) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #23 A.Newberry caught at CSU20, for 7 yards to the CSU08 (#5 D.Hagans; #28 M.Pretto)Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
27.0%
(03:54) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU05 (#28 M.Pretto; #93 R.Harrison), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.6%
Eric Olsen 5 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:0919% → 19%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
18.7%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at CSU42, for 17 yards to the CSU42 (#6 J.Patterson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
19.8%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush left for 6 yards gain to the CSU48 (#1 D.Layne)Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
19.4%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #26 R.McConnell thrown to CSU50 QB hurried by #97 T.BaileySimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
19.2%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Vereen thrown to OSU47Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
18.8%
(02:01) #99 C.Craig punt 41 yards to the OSU11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 1:1284% → 93%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
15.6%
(01:52) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the OSU22, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CSU Face Mask (#17 C.Blocker) 15 yards from OSU22 to OSU37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
14.7%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #23 A.Newberry caught at OSU41, for 7 yards to the OSU44 (#17 C.Blocker; #29 X.Wimbush)Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
14.0%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short middle to #8 D.Temple thrown to OSU49Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+11
13.8%
(01:17) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #23 A.Newberry caught at OSU48, for 11 yards to the CSU45 (#2 O.Diomande), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
13.5%
(01:12) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #80 E.Olsen caught at CSU40, for 6 yards to the CSU39 (#2 O.Diomande)Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+11
13.1%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #80 E.Olsen caught at CSU36, for 11 yards to the CSU28 QB hurried by #9 S.Wright (#7 J.Lessard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
6.7%
Jesse Legree 28 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:2315% → 14%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.8%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #15 T.Smith caught at CSU30, for 8 yards to the CSU33 (#8 S.Vadrawale III)Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
13.5%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Vereen thrown to CSU40 broken up by #4 T.Crandall QB hurried by #97 T.BaileySimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
13.4%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #11 D.Robinson caught at CSU36, for 3 yards to the CSU36 QB hurried by #97 T.Bailey (#12 G.Goodman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.8%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Robinson thrown to CSU35 broken up by #1 D.LayneSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
14.3%
(00:02) Kneel down by #2 K.Farrar at CSU34 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 4:0014% → 13%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
13.5%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 2 yards loss to the CSU23 (#44 T.Hickle)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
13.0%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at CSU30, for 11 yards to the CSU34 (#1 D.Layne), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
13.5%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU36 (#97 T.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
13.0%
(13:05) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #12 J.Moore caught at CSU34, for 4 yards to the CSU40 (#2 A.Sullivan)Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
12.9%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #11 D.Robinson caught at CSU35, for 4 yards to the CSU44 (#12 G.Goodman)Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
12.9%
(11:45) Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CSU50 (#1 D.Layne; #99 N.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
50
-19
12.9%
(11:05) Shotgun #15 T.Smith pass intercepted by #36 D.Vickers at OSU33 broken up by #90 D.Matagi QB hurried by #90 D.Matagi #36 D.Vickers return 19 yards to the CSU48 (#44 O.Lundberg Coleman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:2193% → 98%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
7.1%
(10:55) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush left for 4 yards gain to the CSU44 (#2 O.Diomande; #8 A.Turner)Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
6.8%
(10:18) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #23 A.Newberry caught at CSU45, for 1 yard to the CSU43 (#7 J.Lessard; #8 A.Turner)Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
6.5%
(09:41) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass incomplete short left to #80 E.Olsen thrown to CSU25Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+19
6.9%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #0 A.Butler caught at CSU35, for 19 yards to the CSU24 (#17 C.Blocker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
6.0%
(09:07) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #80 E.Olsen caught at CSU26, for 4 yards to the CSU20 (#7 J.Lessard; #2 O.Diomande)Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+6
5.8%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the CSU14 (#11 K.Potts; #2 O.Diomande), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
5.7%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush left for 6 yards gain to the CSU08 (#90 K.Shank)Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
2.3%
(07:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #80 E.Olsen caught at CSU10, for 8 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #28 C.Ojeda kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Winsor, LS: #47 T.Sanford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:582% → 5%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.4%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CSU32 (#2 A.Sullivan)Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
2.3%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush left for 2 yards gain to the CSU34 (#97 T.Bailey)Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
2.2%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #5 J.Vereen caught at CSU31, for 12 yards to the CSU46 (#36 D.Vickers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
2.2%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at CSU43, for 4 yards to the CSU50 (#14 K.Shaw)Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
50
+4
1.9%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Ross rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU46 (#8 S.Vadrawale III)Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+15
2.0%
(04:24) Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Harper thrown to OSU30 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (#8 S.Vadrawale III) 15 yards from OSU46 to OSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
2.1%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short left to #0 R.Vick, Jr. caught at OSU17, for 17 yards to the OSU14 (#28 B.Thompson), 1ST DOWN. #36 D.Vickers injured on the playSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
1.2%
(04:01) Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OSU07 (#6 J.Patterson; #4 T.Crandall)Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
5.4%
Nader Chirchi 7 Yd pass from K'saan Farrar (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3197% → 100%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
2.7%
(03:09) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass incomplete deep middle to #12 J.Legree thrown to CSU45 broken up by #1 D.BrinsonSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
2.5%
(02:38) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 25 yards gain to the OSU48 (#15 T.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
2.2%
(01:59) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short middle to #12 J.Legree caught at OSU45, for 13 yards to the CSU39 (#2 O.Diomande; #28 M.Pretto), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
2.1%
(01:25) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU31 (#1 D.Brinson; #2 O.Diomande)Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+8
1.9%
(00:48) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #80 E.Olsen caught at CSU33, for 8 yards to the CSU23 (#1 D.Brinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
1.9%
(00:13) Shotgun #23 A.Newberry rush left for 11 yards gain to the CSU12 (#1 D.Brinson) PENALTY OSU Chop Block (#50 T.Shoats) 15 yards from CSU23 to CSU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+6
1.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #8 D.Temple caught at CSU35, for 6 yards to the CSU32 (#27 J.King)Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+21
1.8%
(14:21) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #0 A.Butler caught at CSU23, for 21 yards to the CSU11 (#7 J.Lessard; #15 T.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+11
0.4%
C. Hatcher Jr. run for 11 yds, for a TD (C. Ojeda KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+18
0.3%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short middle to #15 T.Smith caught at CSU22, for 18 yards to the CSU38 (#2 A.Sullivan; #14 K.Shaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+3
0.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush for 3 yards gain to the CSU41 (#14 K.Shaw), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.2%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU41 (#14 K.Shaw), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 7
OPP 0
+5
0.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU46 (#99 N.Fisher) PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CSU41 to CSU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
0.2%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU46 (#99 N.Fisher) PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from CSU41 to CSU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 1
OPP 0
+30
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 30 yards gain to the OSU24 (#12 G.Goodman; #44 T.Hickle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+30
0.2%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 30 yards gain to the OSU24 (#44 T.Hickle; #12 G.Goodman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+15
0.3%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 15 yards gain to the OSU09 (#12 G.Goodman; #59 T.Pome'e), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
0.2%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 D.Robinson rush right for 15 yards gain to the OSU09 (#59 T.Pome'e), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 9
OPP 0
0
0.3%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun pass incomplete short to #0 R.Vick, Jr. thrown to OSU05 broken up by #22 I.HouiSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.2%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short left to #0 R.Vick, Jr. thrown to OSU05 broken up by #22 I.HouiSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 0
+9
0.2%
Durell Robinson 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4399% → 99%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+15
0.6%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass incomplete deep left to #7 B.Hampton thrown to CSU25 broken up by #15 T.Moore PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (#15 T.Moore) 15 yards from OSU25 to OSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+5
0.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU45 (#27 J.King; #56 K.Agurs)Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
0.7%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU45 (#27 J.King; #1 D.Brinson)Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 20
OPP 0
+3
0.6%
Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU48 (#10 B.Kelley; #93 R.Harrison)Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
0.7%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Hatcher Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU48 (#10 B.Kelley; #93 R.Harrison)Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 2
OPP 0
+52
0.6%
Jesse Legree 52 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete deep right to #12 J.Moore thrown to OSU40Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+2
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #10 T.Maher caught at CSU22, for 2 yards to the CSU27 (#12 G.Goodman)Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 8
OPP 0
+10
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #10 T.Maher caught at CSU25, for 10 yards to the CSU37 (#59 T.Pome'e; #1 D.Layne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+1
0.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #44 O.Lundberg Coleman rush right for 1 yard gain to the CSU38 (#99 N.Fisher; #50 W.Haverland)Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 0
-1
0.1%
Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #44 O.Lundberg Coleman caught at CSU38, for 1 yard loss to the CSU37 (#50 W.Haverland)Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 10
OPP 0
0
0.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short left to #44 O.Lundberg Coleman thrown to CSU35 QB hurried by #44 T.HickleSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 10
OPP 0
0
0.1%
(06:09) #99 C.Craig punt 42 yards to the OSU21 fair catch by #4 X.Noland at OSU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20Uncategorized
16 plays · 65 yds · 8:43100% → 100%
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.1%
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #10 T.Maher caught at CSU22, for 2 yards to the CSU27 (#12 G.Goodman)Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
0.1%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #10 T.Maher caught at CSU25, for 10 yards to the CSU37 (#1 D.Layne; #59 T.Pome'e), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.1%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 O.Lundberg Coleman rush right for 1 yard gain to the CSU38 (#99 N.Fisher; #50 W.Haverland), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-1
0.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass complete short right to #44 O.Lundberg Coleman caught at CSU37, for 1 yard loss to the CSU37 (#50 W.Haverland)Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
0.1%
(06:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 K.Farrar pass incomplete short left to #44 O.Lundberg Coleman thrown to CSU35 QB hurried by #44 T.HickleSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
0.1%
(06:09) #99 C.Craig punt 42 yards to the OSU21 fair catch by #4 X.Noland at OSU21Similar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+9
0.4%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 T.Garrison rush middle for 9 yards gain to the OSU30 (#5 D.Hagans; #15 T.Moore)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 1
OPP 0
+22
0.3%
Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #87 J.Bowers caught at OSU27, for 22 yards to the CSU48 (#33 T.Staples), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+1
0.3%
Shotgun #22 T.Garrison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU47 (#9 S.Wright)Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 9
OPP 0
+2
0.3%
(04:02) Shotgun #22 T.Garrison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CSU45 (#45 C.Otlewski)Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 7
OPP 0
+23
0.3%
(03:26) Shotgun pass complete short left to #34 J.Reichle caught at CSU50, for 23 yards to the CSU22 (#15 T.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+8
0.3%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #34 J.Reichle rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU14 (#1 D.Brinson; #95 G.Jones)Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 2
OPP 0
+4
0.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #34 J.Reichle rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU10 (#2 O.Diomande; #28 M.Pretto), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 6
OPP 0
-2
0.1%
Kneel down by #2 B.Atkinson at CSU12 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 12
OPP 0
-2
0.1%
(00:10) Kneel down by #2 B.Atkinson at CSU14 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21Uncategorized
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
0.5%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 T.Garrison rush middle for 9 yards gain to the OSU30 (#5 D.Hagans; #15 T.Moore)Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+22
0.5%
(05:18) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short right to #87 J.Bowers caught at OSU27, for 22 yards to the CSU48 (#33 T.Staples), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.4%
(04:38) Shotgun #22 T.Garrison rush middle for 0 yards to the CSU48 (#9 S.Wright)Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
0.3%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 T.Garrison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CSU45 (#45 C.Otlewski)Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+23
0.3%
(03:26) Shotgun #2 B.Atkinson pass complete short left to #34 J.Reichle caught at CSU50, for 23 yards to the CSU22 (#15 T.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
0.2%
Shotgun #34 J.Reichle rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CSU14 (#1 D.Brinson)Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
0.2%
Shotgun #34 J.Reichle rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU10 (#2 O.Diomande; #28 M.Pretto), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
0.1%
Kneel down by #2 B.Atkinson at CSU12 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
0.2%
Kneel down by #2 B.Atkinson at CSU14 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:11
Eric Olsen 5 Yd pass from Braden Atkinson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
-9.4
TD · Q2 8:55
Aaron Butler 30 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
-7.5
TD · Q2 11:51
K'saan Farrar 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com