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USU

Utah State 18 at Boise State 37

BOIS
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:25 · (01:32) #37 O.Doyle punt 44 yards to the USU36 #8 J.Jacobs return for loss of 1 yard to the USU35 (#20 K.Hall; #10 M.Soliai)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior+13.7Home team on offense+28.6Score differential+18.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+19.7Garbage-time factor+10.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:45: (08:52) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 33 yards gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:45, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:52: (05:55) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #8 J.Jacobs caught at BOI06, for 1 yard to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:52 PENALTY BOI Illegal Substitution declined #19 K.Afrookhteh kick attempt good (H: #3 L.Rehkow, LS: #55 H.Hatch) — USU win probability +8.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:53: (01:58) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass intercepted by #43 J.Ripp at USU21 broken up by #1 B.Phelps #43 J.Ripp return 21 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Kian Afrookhteh 28 Yd Field Goal — USU win probability +2.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:32: (09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete deep left to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI02, for 31 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:32, 1ST DOWN #7 E.Wood pass attempt Successful — USU win probability +4.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:08USU 4th & 12 at BOIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28USU 4th & 4 at USU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:57BOIS 4th & 1 at USU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:56USU 4th & 11 at USU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:28BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00USU 4th & 10 at BOIS 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:22BOIS 4th & 3 at USU 26, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:52USU 4th & 24 at BOIS 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:25BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:43USU 4th & 3 at USU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:22USU 4th & 14 at BOIS 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:32USU 4th & 19 at BOIS 47, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:12BOIS 4th & 2 at USU 11, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:17BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:19BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:45BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:52USU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:53BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:32USU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:27BOIS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:4110% → 11%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short left to #1 A.Garcia caught at USU22, for 17 yards to the USU42 (#8 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.1%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short left to #7 E.Wood caught at USU47, for 5 yards to the USU47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+16
90.0%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI39, for 16 yards to the BOI37, out of bounds at BOI37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
89.9%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BOI29 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.) PENALTY USU Personal Foul 15 yards from BOI37 to USU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 25
OWN 48
-1
89.8%
(13:14) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous sacked for loss of 1 yard to the USU47 (#95 M.Stege, #96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 26
OWN 47
-1
89.6%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USU46 (#96 L.Sanusi; #91 B.Bol)Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 27
OWN 46
+15
89.4%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI39, for 15 yards to the BOI39 (#8 S.Smith; #1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
89.3%
(11:13) #3 L.Rehkow punt 28 yards to the BOI11 fair catch by #34 J.Lane at BOI11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:4789% → 90%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
89.3%
(11:08) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BOI13Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
89.2%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI17 (#8 D.Kabongo; #21 C.Lewis)Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+63
89.0%
(10:25) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete deep right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI45, for 63 yards to the USU20 (#15 D.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
89.2%
(09:45) #0 D.Riley rush left for 5 yards gain to the USU15 (#21 C.Lewis)Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+10
89.1%
(09:01) #85 T.Favors rush left for 10 yards gain to the USU05 (#4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.8%
(08:21) #0 D.Riley rush right for 5 yards gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:17 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4111% → 11%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.3%
(08:15) Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush right for 6 yards gain to the USU31 (#1 B.Phelps; #7 J.Mickey)Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
89.1%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short left to #8 J.Jacobs caught at USU27, for 2 yards to the USU33 (#4 T.Anderson; #7 J.Mickey)Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
89.1%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 N.White rush right for 2 yards loss to the USU31 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
89.2%
(06:32) #3 L.Rehkow punt 39 yards to the BOI30 fair catch by #34 J.Lane at BOI30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:0189% → 92%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
89.4%
(06:27) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 2 yards gain to the BOI32 (#11 A.Cunningham; #21 C.Lewis)Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
89.3%
(05:51) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #5 A.Wright caught at BOI29, for 3 yards to the BOI35 (#11 A.Cunningham)Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
89.2%
(05:14) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #82 B.Ford caught at BOI42, for 7 yards to the BOI42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.5%
(04:37) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #82 B.Ford thrown to USU46 broken up by #21 C.LewisSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
89.3%
(04:30) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI45, for 7 yards to the BOI49 (#17 J.Pendleton)Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
89.3%
(03:51) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at USU49, for 2 yards to the USU49 (#4 B.Hamblin). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (03:51) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at USU48, for 3 yards to the USU48 (#4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+23
89.1%
(03:07) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 23 yards gain to the USU26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
89.4%
(02:34) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep right to #19 R.Jones thrown to USU05 broken up by #15 D.MayesSimilar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
89.3%
(02:33) #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USU23 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+11
89.1%
(01:48) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 11 yards gain to the USU12 (#11 A.Cunningham; #15 D.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
89.3%
(01:08) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU11 (#23 B.Diakite)Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
91.7%
(00:25) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at USU13, for 11 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:19, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:239% → 9%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
(00:19) #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USU32 (#8 S.Smith; #22 R.Tillmon)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
90.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass incomplete deep right to #5 R.Haynes thrown to BOI18Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
90.7%
(14:52) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass complete short right to #7 E.Wood caught at USU37, for 14 yards to the USU46 (#8 S.Smith; #55 M.Tuioti) PENALTY USU Holding (#8 J.Jacobs) 10 yards from USU32 to USU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
91.1%
(14:36) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead rush left for 2 yards gain to the USU24 (#91 B.Bol)Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
91.3%
(14:02) #3 L.Rehkow punt 54 yards to the BOI22 fair catch by #34 J.Lane at BOI22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 5:0491% → 96%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
91.4%
(13:56) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 6 yards gain to the BOI28 (#4 B.Hamblin; #14 B.Olevao Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
91.4%
(13:14) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI30 (#17 J.Pendleton; #11 A.Cunningham)Similar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
91.2%
(12:32) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush left for 5 yards gain to the BOI35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
91.4%
(11:55) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 4 yards gain to the BOI39 (#21 C.Lewis; #10 P.Naegle)Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
91.8%
(11:20) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at BOI45, for 12 yards to the USU49 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.; #15 D.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.9%
(10:43) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush right for 0 yards to the USU49, out of bounds at USU49Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
92.3%
(10:08) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #19 R.Jones caught at USU50, for 12 yards to the USU37 (#4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
92.3%
(09:31) Shotgun #27 H.Stewart III rush right for 4 yards gain to the USU33 (#9 T.Morris)Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+33
96.3%
(08:52) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 33 yards gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:45, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:456% → 11%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.6%
(08:45) Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USU27 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.; #5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
93.5%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead rush left for 6 yards gain to the USU33 (#1 B.Phelps), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+64
93.1%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush left for 64 yards gain to the BOI03 (#8 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.8%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 N.Washington rush middle for 0 yards to the BOI03 (#20 K.Hall; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.7%
(06:26) No Huddle #2 M.Hillstead rush left for 2 yards gain to the BOI01, out of bounds at BOI01Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.8%
(05:55) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #8 J.Jacobs caught at BOI06, for 1 yard to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:52 PENALTY BOI Illegal Substitution declined #19 K.Afrookhteh kick attempt good (H: #3 L.Rehkow, LS: #55 H.Hatch)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:1192% → 92%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.0%
(05:52) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #87 K.Browne caught at BOI26, for 8 yards to the BOI33 (#21 C.Lewis)Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
92.1%
(05:12) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at BOI47, for 16 yards to the BOI49 QB hurried by #4 B.Hamblin, out of bounds at BOI49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
92.0%
(04:37) #0 D.Riley rush left for 3 yards gain to the USU48 (#28 C.Tujague; #4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
92.0%
(03:55) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 2 yards gain to the USU46 (#4 B.Hamblin; #9 T.Morris)Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-6
91.9%
(03:15) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BOI48 (#17 J.Pendleton)Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
91.6%
(02:33) #37 O.Doyle punt 42 yards to the USU10, out of bounds at USU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2010% → 3%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
90.4%
(02:23) Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush left for 4 yards gain to the USU14 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.; #1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-21
96.7%
(01:58) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass intercepted by #43 J.Ripp at USU21 broken up by #1 B.Phelps #43 J.Ripp return 21 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 1:533% → 6%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.6%
(01:53) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USU35 (#8 S.Smith), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USU Personal Foul 15 yards from USU35 to USU20Similar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.7%
(01:31) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Robinson thrown to USU25 broken up by #6 J.Washington Jr.Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+46
96.8%
(01:31) Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush left for 46 yards gain to the BOI34 (#4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
95.9%
(01:22) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete deep right to #7 E.Wood thrown to BOI02 broken up by #10 M.Soliai PENALTY BOI Pass Interference (#10 M.Soliai) 15 yards from BOI34 to BOI19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
95.9%
PENALTY BOI UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 10 yards from BOI19 to BOI09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.9%
(01:16) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete short right to #7 E.Wood thrown to BOI00 broken up by #6 J.Washington Jr.Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
95.9%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BOI14 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan, #96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
96.7%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush right for 4 yards gain to the BOI10 (#1 B.Phelps; #10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
93.8%
Kian Afrookhteh 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 6:3393% → 98%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 2 yards gain to the BOI27 (#17 J.Pendleton)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
94.3%
(14:27) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #46 C.Kuchenbuch caught at BOI32, for 13 yards to the BOI40 (#17 J.Pendleton; #5 M.Grant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
95.0%
(13:46) #0 D.Riley rush left for 5 yards gain to the BOI45 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
95.2%
(13:07) Shotgun #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI47 (#21 C.Lewis)Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
95.1%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USU47 (#21 C.Lewis; #15 D.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
95.7%
(12:18) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USU40, out of bounds at USU40Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
95.7%
(11:41) #0 D.Riley rush right for 2 yards gain to the USU38 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
95.6%
(11:00) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USU33 (#21 C.Lewis; #15 D.Mayes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
95.9%
(10:17) #0 D.Riley rush left for 1 yard gain to the USU32 (#11 A.Cunningham; #17 J.Pendleton)Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+2
96.1%
(09:38) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USU30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+4
96.1%
(08:54) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #83 Q.Williams Jr. caught at USU27, for 4 yards to the USU26 (#21 C.Lewis)Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
97.7%
(08:24) #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 08:22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · 27 yds · 5:213% → 2%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.9%
(08:20) #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU26 (#92 D.Latu; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.9%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush middle for 0 yards to the USU26 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
97.0%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USU36 (#10 M.Soliai), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.9%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short left to #8 J.Jacobs caught at USU34, for 1 yard to the USU37 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
97.0%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush middle for 15 yards gain to the BOI48 (#4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
97.0%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Robinson rush left for 8 yards gain to the BOI40 (#22 R.Tillmon; #8 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
97.2%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI35, for 6 yards to the BOI34 (#7 J.Mickey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.2%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete deep left to #1 A.Garcia thrown to BOI00Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
97.2%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BOI39 (#92 D.Latu)Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 15
OPP 39
-9
97.7%
(03:39) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous sacked for loss of 9 yards to the BOI48 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 24
OPP 48
0
97.8%
(02:57) #3 L.Rehkow punt 31 yards to the BOI17 muffed by #34 J.Lane at BOI17 recovered by BOI #34 J.Lane at BOI17, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
98.9%
(02:52) #27 H.Stewart III rush left for 4 yards loss to the BOI13 (#32 A.Jackson; #7 B.Arnold III)Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 14
OWN 13
0
99.0%
(02:16) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #87 K.Browne thrown to BOI13 QB hurried by #14 B.Olevao Jr.Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+7
99.3%
(02:10) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #0 D.Riley caught at BOI10, for 7 yards to the BOI20 (#23 B.Diakite)Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+44
99.2%
(01:32) #37 O.Doyle punt 44 yards to the USU36 #8 J.Jacobs return for loss of 1 yard to the USU35 (#20 K.Hall; #10 M.Soliai)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:562% → 1%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
(01:25) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Jacobs thrown to USU40 QB hurried by #96 L.SanusiSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.2%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush right for 3 yards gain to the USU38 (#43 J.Ripp; #51 R.Caywood)Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
98.3%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USU42 (#55 M.Tuioti; #10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+25
98.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass complete short left to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI40, for 25 yards to the BOI33 (#6 J.Washington Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
98.4%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass complete short left to #18 K.Kaio caught at BOI16, for 22 yards to the BOI11 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
98.5%
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BOI15 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan, #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 14
OPP 15
0
98.6%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass incomplete short right to #7 E.Wood thrown to BOI00Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
98.7%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead rush middle for 0 yards to the BOI15 (#96 L.Sanusi; #55 M.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 14
OPP 15
0
98.8%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass incomplete short right to #7 E.Wood thrown to BOI05 QB hurried by #10 M.Soliai, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.7%
(12:23) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOI18 (#9 T.Morris; #32 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
99.7%
(11:40) #0 D.Riley rush left for 6 yards gain to the BOI24 (#5 M.Grant)Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
99.7%
(11:00) #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI26 (#5 M.Grant; #7 B.Arnold III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.7%
(10:18) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI25, for 4 yards to the BOI30 fumbled by #19 R.Jones at BOI30 forced by #11 A.Cunningham recovered by USU #5 M.Grant at BOI30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:411% → 6%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.0%
PENALTY USU False Start (#52 J.Liston) 5 yards from BOI30 to BOI35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+4
99.0%
(10:13) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #1 A.Garcia caught at BOI29, for 4 yards to the BOI31 (#10 M.Soliai), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+31
94.5%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete deep left to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI02, for 31 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:32, 1ST DOWN #7 E.Wood pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5799% → 100%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
98.7%
(09:29) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete deep right to #5 A.Wright caught at BOI48, for 33 yards to the USU42 (#7 B.Arnold III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
98.9%
(08:54) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #82 B.Ford caught at USU24, for 31 yards to the USU11 (#4 B.Hamblin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.7%
(08:31) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #82 B.Ford caught at USU00, for 11 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:27, 1ST DOWN #4 M.Madsen pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:422% → 2%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
97.8%
(08:27) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #23 N.White caught at USU21, for 27 yards to the BOI48 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.7%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short middle to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI43, for 4 yards to the BOI44 (#8 S.Smith)Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
97.6%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BOI40 (#7 J.Mickey; #55 M.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
97.9%
(06:37) Shotgun #8 J.Jacobs rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI38 (#4 T.Anderson; #43 J.Ripp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.2%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Garcia thrown to BOI27 QB hurried by #58 D.AlailefaleulaSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
98.2%
(05:53) #23 N.White rush left for 1 yard loss to the BOI39 (#4 T.Anderson; #55 M.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-8
98.3%
(05:13) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BOI47 (#51 R.Caywood)Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 19
OPP 47
0
98.5%
(04:37) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Garcia thrown to BOI32 broken up by #8 S.Smith, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.7%
(04:33) #22 J.Goff rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI49 (#11 A.Cunningham)Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
(04:29) #22 J.Goff rush right for 1 yard gain to the BOI50 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.; #22 J.Shepard)Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 7
50
+15
99.9%
PENALTY USU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#23 B.Diakite) 15 yards from BOI50 to USU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
(04:25) #22 J.Goff rush left for 2 yards gain to the USU33 (#11 A.Cunningham; #32 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
99.8%
(04:20) #22 J.Goff rush right for 7 yards gain to the USU26 (#4 B.Hamblin)Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+7
99.9%
(03:34) Shotgun #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USU19 (#32 A.Jackson; #5 M.Grant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
(02:50) Shotgun #22 J.Goff rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USU17 (#11 A.Cunningham)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
99.8%
(02:04) Shotgun #22 J.Goff rush middle for 0 yards to the USU17 (#11 A.Cunningham)Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+6
99.8%
(02:00) #27 H.Stewart III rush left for 6 yards gain to the USU11 (#14 B.Olevao Jr.; #7 B.Arnold III)Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 11
0
99.8%
(01:15) #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 0 yards to the USU11 (#11 A.Cunningham), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
99.5%
(01:13) Shotgun #28 N.Washington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU12 (#44 S.Brackett-Lambey; #40 D.Toilolo)Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
99.5%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Robinson thrown to USU15 QB hurried by #40 D.ToiloloSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+4
99.5%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 N.Washington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USU16 (#40 D.Toilolo; #55 M.Tuioti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:52
(05:55) Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete short right to #8 J.Jacobs caught at BOI06, for 1 yard to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:52 PENALTY BOI Illegal Substitution declined #19 K.Afrookhteh kick attempt good (H: #3 L.Rehkow, LS: #55 H.Hatch)
-8.1
TD · Q2 1:53
(01:58) Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass intercepted by #43 J.Ripp at USU21 broken up by #1 B.Phelps #43 J.Ripp return 21 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)
+6.9
TD · Q4 9:32
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete deep left to #7 E.Wood caught at BOI02, for 31 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:32, 1ST DOWN #7 E.Wood pass attempt Successful
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com