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BOIS

Boise State 32 at Western Michigan 7

WMU
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:40 · (12:42) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass intercepted by #22 R.Tillmon at BSU40 #22 R.Tillmon return 22 yards to the WMU38 (#15 A.Parks), out of bounds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense−46.7Score differential−41.2Pregame prior−4.6Garbage-time factor−16.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:33: (07:35) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:33 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Kellow, LS: #37 O.Doyle) — BOIS win probability +4.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:34: Timeout Boise State, clock 03:34 — BOIS win probability +3.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:39: (01:44) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU08 (#10 J.Betts) — BOIS win probability +5.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:22: (07:26) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #82 B.Ford caught at WMU00, for 6 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:22 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Kellow, LS: #37 O.Doyle) — BOIS win probability +7.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:10: (00:12) #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 00:10 — BOIS win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:39WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:01BOIS 4th & 7 at WMU 12, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:24WMU 4th & 4 at BOIS 22, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:45WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:26BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 43, up 15
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:44WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:47WMU 4th & 4 at BOIS 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:51WMU 4th & 3 at BOIS 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−2.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:10BOIS 4th & 3 at WMU 8, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:40WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 37, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:36WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 41, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:58BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 4, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:33BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:33BOIS Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:22BOIS Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:40BOIS Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:03WMU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2071% → 71%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU28 (#94 A.Tounkara; #4 A.Alexander)Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
29.6%
(14:20) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #0 D.Riley caught at BSU24, for 15 yards to the BSU43 (#47 D.Moon; #8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
29.7%
(13:41) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU48 (#4 A.Alexander; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+15
30.0%
(13:01) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 15 yards gain to the WMU37 (#14 D.McCullough; #6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
30.2%
(12:25) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #19 R.Jones thrown to WMU00Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
30.2%
(12:19) #22 J.Goff rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU34 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+34
29.2%
(11:38) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #88 M.Wagner caught at WMU15, for 34 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:33, 1ST DOWN #15 Z.Martinez rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4829% → 29%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.4%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU25 (#1 B.Phelps; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.4%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #88 N.Levicki caught at WMU28, for 4 yards to the WMU29 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
29.4%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 8 yards to the WMU21 (#97 M.Edward)Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
29.2%
(09:39) #25 R.Millmore punt 40 yards to the BSU39 fair catch by #3 C.Bates at BSU39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:3371% → 71%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.3%
(09:39) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #5 A.Wright thrown to WMU46Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
29.3%
(09:34) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BSU48 (#6 J.Pope; #8 J.Sims)Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
29.1%
(08:53) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU49 (#47 D.Moon; #41 Z.Tibbs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.9%
(08:15) Shotgun #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU49 (#10 J.Betts)Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
28.8%
(07:37) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #88 M.Wagner caught at WMU44, for 8 yards to the WMU41 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+26
28.9%
(06:58) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 26 yards gain to the WMU15 (#1 J.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
28.7%
(06:16) #19 R.Jones rush right for 1 yard loss to the WMU16 (#4 A.Alexander; #96 D.Gustwiller)Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+4
28.7%
(05:45) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at WMU12, for 4 yards to the WMU12, out of bounds at WMU12Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
28.8%
(05:09) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #87 K.Browne thrown to WMU07Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
29.3%
(05:03) #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 29 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 05:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:3130% → 30%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.5%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #7 B.Brooks thrown to WMU30 broken up by #8 S.SmithSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+27
29.5%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #6 J.Buckley caught at WMU16, for 27 yards to the WMU47 (#7 J.Mickey; #10 M.Soliai), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
30.5%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU47 (#22 R.Tillmon)Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
30.5%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #24 O.Mataele caught at WMU40, for 13 yards to the BSU40 (#22 R.Tillmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
31.0%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU32 (#22 R.Tillmon; #1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+4
31.0%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU28 (#7 J.Mickey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
31.1%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buckley thrown to BSU29Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
31.1%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 6 yards gain to the BSU22 (#4 T.Anderson)Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
30.6%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU22 (#97 M.Edward)Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
29.9%
(00:27) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 00:24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 7:4570% → 79%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.6%
(00:24) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #82 B.Ford thrown to BSU26Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
29.7%
(00:18) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BSU32 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
29.2%
(14:57) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BSU41 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
28.6%
(14:23) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU41 (#94 A.Tounkara; #10 J.Betts)Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+4
28.3%
(13:46) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU45 (#1 J.Franklin; #4 A.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.0%
(13:12) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep middle to #19 R.Jones thrown to WMU28. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
28.2%
(13:01) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at BSU50, for 9 yards to the WMU46 (#8 J.Sims)Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
27.2%
(12:16) #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU44 (#10 J.Betts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
27.0%
(11:43) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at WMU42, for 7 yards to the WMU37 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
26.8%
(11:02) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU32 (#1 J.Franklin; #0 B.Anes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
26.7%
(10:25) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU32 (#94 A.Tounkara; #12 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+16
26.5%
(09:44) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #87 K.Browne caught at WMU15, for 16 yards to the WMU16 QB hurried by #2 S.Gardner, Jr. (#22 A.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
26.1%
(09:00) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at WMU14, for 8 yards to the WMU08 (#22 A.Louis; #1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+3
25.2%
(08:13) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU05 (#1 J.Franklin; #0 B.Anes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.7%
(07:35) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:33 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Kellow, LS: #37 O.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3822% → 22%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.1%
(07:33) No Huddle #12 B.Lowry rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU27 (#10 M.Soliai), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
21.7%
(06:56) No Huddle #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU25, for 6 yards to the WMU33 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
22.0%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Littlejohn thrown to WMU37. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (06:15) No Huddle #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #1 E.Littlejohn caught at WMU37, for 4 yards to the WMU37 (#20 K.Hall), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
21.5%
(05:56) #25 R.Millmore punt 32 yards to the BSU35, out of bounds at BSU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1280% → 81%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.5%
(05:43) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU35 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
20.4%
(05:02) Shotgun #22 J.Goff rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU37 (#41 Z.Tibbs; #7 G.Carter)Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+6
19.3%
(04:16) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #3 C.Bates caught at BSU43, for 6 yards to the BSU43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
18.8%
(03:34) #37 O.Doyle punt 42 yards to the WMU15 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:3521% → 22%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
20.9%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #83 R.Brotherton caught at WMU20, for 5 yards to the WMU20, out of bounds at WMU20Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+23
20.6%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 E.Littlejohn rush right for 23 yards gain to the WMU43 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
21.8%
(02:23) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buckley thrown to WMU40Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
21.6%
(02:18) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU43 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
21.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep left to #7 B.Brooks thrown to BSU27 broken up by #6 J.Washington Jr.Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
22.2%
(01:55) #25 R.Millmore punt 53 yards to the BSU04, out of bounds at BSU04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:1883% → 82%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
17.2%
(01:44) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU08 (#10 J.Betts)Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 6
OWN 8
0
17.0%
(01:01) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU08 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+6
17.6%
(00:21) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU14 (#22 A.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:5920% → 19%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.7%
(14:58) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #6 J.Buckley caught at WMU17, for 6 yards to the WMU31 (#22 R.Tillmon)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
20.1%
(14:18) #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 13 yards gain to the WMU44 (#7 J.Mickey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
20.8%
(13:44) #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #3 K.Boone-Nelson caught at WMU46, for 3 yards to the WMU47 (#7 J.Mickey)Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
20.4%
(13:05) #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU48 (#96 L.Sanusi; #99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+15
20.4%
(12:25) #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep middle to #8 E.Nelson thrown to BSU20 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (#8 S.Smith) 15 yards from BSU48 to BSU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
21.1%
(12:18) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU28 (#22 R.Tillmon; #99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
20.3%
(11:37) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU27 (#43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
19.5%
(10:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep right to #1 E.Littlejohn thrown to BSU01Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
18.8%
(10:47) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #8 E.Nelson thrown to BSU21, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:2085% → 96%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
15.2%
(10:45) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #3 C.Bates thrown to WMU50Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
15.3%
(10:42) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU30 (#0 B.Anes; #47 D.Moon)Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+15
14.3%
(10:01) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush right for 15 yards gain to the BSU45 (#94 A.Tounkara), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
13.0%
(09:33) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #5 A.Wright caught at WMU36, for 23 yards to the WMU32 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
12.5%
(08:54) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU31 (#4 A.Alexander; #41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+25
12.4%
(08:14) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #19 R.Jones caught at WMU19, for 25 yards to the WMU06 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.4%
(07:26) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #82 B.Ford caught at WMU00, for 6 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:22 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Kellow, LS: #37 O.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:316% → 5%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #83 R.Brotherton thrown to WMU36Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.7%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WMU24 (#97 M.Edward)Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
5.6%
Shotgun #10 T.Petty rush left for 14 yards gain to the WMU38 (#8 S.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
6.1%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep right to #7 B.Brooks thrown to BSU30 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (#6 J.Washington Jr.) 15 yards from WMU38 to BSU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
6.4%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #24 O.Mataele caught at WMU47, for 6 yards to the BSU41 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
6.7%
Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU40 (#91 B.Bol; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
5.6%
(04:57) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #7 B.Brooks thrown to BSU29 broken up by #8 S.SmithSimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
5.3%
(04:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #80 H.Hughes thrown to BSU27, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3496% → 99%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
3.8%
(04:47) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU45 (#0 B.Anes)Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
3.6%
(04:10) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU47 (#26 K.Crump; #17 C.Barber)Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+8
3.4%
(03:36) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush left for 8 yards gain to the WMU45 (#1 J.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
3.1%
(02:56) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU44 (#0 B.Anes; #96 D.Gustwiller)Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+29
3.0%
(02:23) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at WMU28, for 29 yards to the WMU15 (#1 J.Franklin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
2.7%
(01:35) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #13 D.Morris thrown to WMU05 broken up by #17 C.BarberSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
2.7%
(01:35) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU13 (#9 W.Gerig; #0 B.Anes)Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+5
2.6%
(00:46) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #87 K.Browne caught at WMU08, for 5 yards to the WMU08 (#8 J.Sims)Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
1.1%
(00:12) #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 00:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.9%
(00:08) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #8 E.Nelson caught at WMU23, for 13 yards to the WMU38 (#22 R.Tillmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #6 J.Buckley caught at WMU38, for 0 yards to the WMU38 (#1 B.Phelps; #10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
0.8%
(14:09) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #6 J.Buckley caught at WMU32, for 4 yards loss to the WMU34 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+3
0.7%
(13:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU37 (#55 M.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 11
OWN 37
-22
0.7%
(12:42) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass intercepted by #22 R.Tillmon at BSU40 #22 R.Tillmon return 22 yards to the WMU38 (#15 A.Parks), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
10 plays · 38 yds · 5:0099% → 100%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
0.8%
(12:40) Shotgun #3 C.Bates pass intercepted by #6 J.Pope at WMU03, End Of Play PENALTY WMU Roughing The Passer (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.) 15 yards from WMU38 to WMU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
0.7%
(12:31) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU17 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+9
0.7%
(11:49) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 9 yards gain to the WMU08 (#17 C.Barber), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BSU Personal Foul (#62 R.Carreon) 15 yards from WMU08 to WMU23Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
0.5%
(09:37) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #19 R.Jones caught at WMU16, for 7 yards to the WMU16 (#7 G.Carter)Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+3
0.5%
(09:20) Shotgun #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU13 (#47 D.Moon; #22 A.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.5%
PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game (#9 W.Gerig) 5 yards from WMU13 to WMU08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 5
OPP 8
+5
0.5%
(08:43) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU03 (#12 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.4%
(08:25) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU02 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.4%
(08:06) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU02 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
(07:39) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at WMU00, for 2 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:40 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Kellow, LS: #37 O.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #80 H.Hughes caught at WMU26, for 9 yards to the WMU34 (#55 M.Tuioti) PENALTY WMU Personal Foul (#24 O.Mataele) 15 yards from WMU34 to WMU19Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
0.2%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU22, for 7 yards to the WMU26 (#29 A.de Boachie)Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
0.2%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #15 A.Parks caught at WMU32, for 11 yards to the WMU37 (#44 S.Brackett-Lambey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.2%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU41, for 4 yards to the WMU41 (#14 D.Freeney)Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
0.2%
(06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete deep right to #8 E.Nelson thrown to BSU33. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (06:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep right to #8 E.Nelson caught at BSU33, for 0 yards to the WMU41 (#24 T.Crutchfield))Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
0.2%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #83 R.Brotherton thrown to BSU40Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
0.2%
(05:41) #25 R.Millmore punt 54 yards to the BSU05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
0.2%
(05:34) #22 J.Goff rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BSU04 (#0 B.Anes; #10 J.Betts)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+1
0.2%
(04:44) #22 J.Goff rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU05 (#0 B.Anes; #1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+3
0.2%
(03:59) Shotgun #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU08 (#96 D.Gustwiller; #10 J.Betts)Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+4
0.2%
(03:14) #37 O.Doyle punt 63 yards to the WMU29 PENALTY BSU Illegal Formation 4 yards from BSU08 to BSU04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
0.3%
(03:01) #37 O.Doyle punt 42 yards to the BSU46 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at BSU46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
0.1%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Petty rush middle for 27 yards gain to the BSU19 (#24 T.Crutchfield), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
0.1%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cabana rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU14 (#31 C.Miller; #99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
0.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Petty pass incomplete short middle to #8 E.Nelson thrown to BSU00Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+3
0.1%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 E.Littlejohn rush right for 3 yards gain to the BSU11 (#40 D.Toilolo)Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+9
0.1%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 T.Petty pass incomplete short left to #8 E.Nelson thrown to BSU00 PENALTY BSU Roughing The Passer declined BSU Pass Interference (#31 C.Miller) 9 yards from BSU11 to BSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cabana rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:03 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.1%
(01:00) Kneel down by Boise State at BSU23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
0.1%
(00:27) Kneel down by Boise State at BSU21 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:22
(07:26) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #82 B.Ford caught at WMU00, for 6 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:22 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Kellow, LS: #37 O.Doyle)
-7.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:39
(01:44) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU08 (#10 J.Betts)
-5
TD · Q2 7:33
(07:35) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:33 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #61 C.Kellow, LS: #37 O.Doyle)
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com