Try the model
RICE

Rice 24 at Fresno State 38

FRES
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Valley Children's Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.1FRES 68.8%(09:50) #38 M.Watanabe field goalattempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #41N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi), clock09:47AWAY 17 - HOME 17 · Q3 9:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:47 · (09:50) #38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi), clock 09:47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior+12.9Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:34: (08:40) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #13 M.Mosey caught at FRES46, for 40 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:34, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler) — RICE win probability +7.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:04: (01:07) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete deep left to #1 J.McClain caught at RICE01, for 28 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi) — FRES win probability +11.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:44: (04:44) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #0 E.Avit caught at RICE00, for 7 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:44 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi) — FRES win probability +13.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:58: (09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 50 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:58, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler) — RICE win probability +11.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:37: (07:41) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 52 yards gain to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:37, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi) — FRES win probability +8.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 6RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:48FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:51FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:29RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:49FRES 4th & 4 at RICE 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−7.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:50RICE 4th & 14 at FRES 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:20FRES 4th & 1 at RICE 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−2.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−10.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:47FRES 4th & 11 at RICE 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−9.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:09RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:58RICE 4th & 4 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:58RICE 4th & 11 at FRES 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:45RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:34RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:04FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:44FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:00FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:58RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:37FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0680% → 79%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
79.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 17 yards gain to the FRES42 (#7 A.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
79.4%
(14:25) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES43 (#96 D.Botts)Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-7
79.2%
(13:48) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #6 B.Donelson caught at FRES46, for 7 yards loss to the FRES36 (#12 J.Benjamin)Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
78.9%
(13:05) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FRES50Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 16
OWN 36
+10
78.8%
(13:01) #41 N.Verdugo punt 55 yards to the RICE09 #13 M.Mosey return 10 yards to the RICE19 (#53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2INT
10 plays · 40 yds · 5:1921% → 23%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
78.9%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush right for 4 yards gain to the RICE23 (#5 S.Harris; #6 J.Jacks), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+8
78.7%
(12:16) Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush left for 8 yards gain to the RICE31 (#27 G.Grimes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
78.5%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 15 yards gain to the RICE46, out of bounds at RICE46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
78.1%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FRES47 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
77.7%
(10:13) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES45 (#7 L.Mouzon)Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
77.5%
(09:29) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES43 (#43 N.Baumgartner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
77.3%
(09:15) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 8 yards gain to the FRES35 (#1 K.Thunderbird), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-6
76.7%
(08:11) Shotgun #11 J.Brown sacked for loss of 6 yards to the FRES41 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 8
OPP 41
-8
76.7%
(07:28) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass intercepted by #5 S.Harris at FRES31 #5 S.Harris return 8 yards to the FRES39 (#56 N.Bledsoe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2178% → 77%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
77.6%
(07:21) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FRES40 (#8 J.Mutombo; #3 K.Akui)Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
77.5%
(06:40) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #2 R.Luke thrown to FRES43 QB hurried by #8 J.MutomboSimilar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 9
OWN 40
-1
77.1%
(06:36) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FRES37, for 1 yard loss to the FRES39 (#33 S.Combs)Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
76.6%
(05:56) #41 N.Verdugo punt 49 yards to the RICE12 fair catch by #13 M.Mosey at RICE12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4TD
1 play · 88 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+88
74.1%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush right for 88 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:45, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2674% → 73%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.3%
(05:35) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FRES22, for 2 yards to the FRES27 (#2 J.Chavez; #12 J.Benjamin)Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
74.0%
(04:52) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #87 J.Appleget caught at FRES31, for 5 yards to the FRES32 (#2 J.Chavez; #33 S.Combs)Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
73.4%
(04:11) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #0 E.Avit thrown to FRES33Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
73.2%
(04:06) #41 N.Verdugo punt 48 yards to the RICE20 fair catch by #13 M.Mosey at RICE20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2827% → 28%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
73.3%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the RICE24 (#1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
72.7%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 3 yards gain to the RICE27 (#89 M.Hines)Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
72.2%
(02:43) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep middle to #6 B.Grice thrown to FRES50Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
72.5%
(02:29) #29 C.Durkin punt 42 yards to the FRES31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:2672% → 77%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
72.3%
(02:23) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES35, for 5 yards to the FRES36 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #8 J.Mutombo)Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+10
72.4%
(01:48) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES31, for 10 yards to the FRES46 (#5 J.Harper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
72.1%
(01:03) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 5 yards gain to the RICE49 (#7 A.Brown; #54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+1
72.2%
(00:26) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush left for 1 yard gain to the RICE48 (#57 A.Clemmons)Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+19
71.8%
(14:56) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at RICE40, for 19 yards to the RICE29 (#7 A.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
72.4%
(14:21) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 1 yard loss to the RICE30 (#12 J.Benjamin)Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+24
71.9%
(13:38) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #87 J.Appleget caught at RICE25, for 24 yards to the RICE06 (#44 C.King), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.4%
(12:52) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at RICE01, for 6 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:51 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0726% → 37%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
74.4%
(12:50) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 10 yards gain to the RICE35 (#31 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
73.8%
(12:07) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #81 B.Walker caught at RICE31, for 8 yards to the RICE43 (#4 E.Tierney)Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
72.4%
(11:23) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 2 yards gain to the RICE45 (#6 J.Jacks; #36 T.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
72.3%
(10:40) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FRES47 (#31 K.Harris)Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
71.1%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 M.Mosey rush left for 5 yards gain to the FRES42 (#36 T.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
70.9%
(09:23) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES40 (#95 M.Noonan; #0 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
70.5%
(08:45) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short right to #81 B.Walker thrown to FRES30 QB hurried by #11 D.HampstenSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+40
62.7%
(08:40) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #13 M.Mosey caught at FRES46, for 40 yards to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:34, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:3966% → 65%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.6%
(08:30) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #1 J.McClain thrown to FRES40Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+45
65.5%
(08:26) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 45 yards gain to the RICE30, out of bounds at RICE30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
67.9%
(07:59) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #10 J.Malau’ulu caught at RICE20, for 23 yards to the RICE07 (#3 K.Akui; #2 J.Chavez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
67.5%
(07:17) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the RICE04 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #7 A.Brown)Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.0%
(06:35) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 0 yards to the RICE04 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #96 D.Botts)Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
65.4%
(05:54) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #0 E.Avit thrown to RICE00 broken up by #7 A.BrownSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.6%
(05:51) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #0 E.Avit thrown to RICE00 broken up by #56 S.Clarke, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:4736% → 40%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
64.1%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the RICE09 (#89 M.Hines)Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+8
64.0%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the RICE17 (#27 G.Grimes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+41
61.8%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 41 yards gain to the FRES42 (#7 L.Mouzon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
57.7%
(04:09) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FRES36 (#5 S.Harris; #27 G.Grimes)Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
55.6%
(03:27) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FRES32 (#1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
54.6%
(02:48) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 1 yard loss to the FRES33 (#0 D.Laffitte; #27 G.Grimes)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-3
52.7%
(02:04) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 3 yards loss to the FRES36 fumbled by #11 J.Brown at FRES36 recovered by RICE #11 J.Brown at FRES36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
58.4%
(01:56) Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush left for 0 yards to the FRES36 (#1 K.Thunderbird), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+54
60.2%
(01:51) #28 E.Gota field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler), clock 01:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 0:4161% → 76%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
61.0%
(01:45) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal sacked for loss of 7 yards to the FRES29 (#56 S.Clarke) PENALTY RICE Offside 5 yards from FRES36 to FRES41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 5
OWN 41
0
62.5%
(01:37) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #86 G.Correia thrown to RICE45Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
62.3%
(01:35) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #86 G.Correia caught at FRES46, for 7 yards to the FRES48 (#54 A.Harnetiaux), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.4%
(01:25) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #0 E.Avit thrown to RICE45Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+21
61.5%
(01:20) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush right for 21 yards gain to the RICE31, out of bounds at RICE31, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
64.4%
(01:09) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #88 D.Gaius-Anyaegbu caught at RICE28, for 3 yards to the RICE28, out of bounds at RICE28Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+28
75.8%
(01:07) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete deep left to #1 J.McClain caught at RICE01, for 28 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 0:5429% → 38%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.9%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #6 B.Grice caught at RICE30, for 5 yards to the RICE30 (#7 L.Mouzon)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
70.3%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 7 yards gain to the RICE37 (#43 N.Baumgartner), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.9%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left to #7 B.Jackson Jr. thrown to FRES48 broken up by #7 L.Mouzon QB hurried by #11 D.HampstenSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
70.2%
(00:37) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 14 yards gain to the FRES49 (#25 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
67.2%
(00:27) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short right to #19 J.Clark caught at FRES45, for 17 yards to the FRES32 (#31 K.Harris), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
65.0%
(00:19) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush left for 5 yards gain to the FRES27 (#7 L.Mouzon; #8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+18
64.0%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short middle to #19 J.Clark caught at FRES10, for 18 yards to the FRES09 (#35 T.Khajavi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
63.9%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FRES03 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #33 T.Powell)Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+22
61.7%
Enock Gota 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:0768% → 69%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
67.6%
(14:55) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.McClain thrown to RICE21 QB hurried by #57 A.ClemmonsSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
67.2%
(14:50) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to RICE45Similar
Q3 14:34
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+19
64.8%
(14:44) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 19 yards gain to the RICE34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
68.4%
PENALTY FRES False Start (#55 M.Thorpe-Taylor) 5 yards from RICE34 to RICE39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+3
65.7%
(14:07) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 3 yards gain to the RICE36 (#54 A.Harnetiaux)Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+2
66.5%
(13:27) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 2 yards gain to the RICE34 (#7 A.Brown)Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
65.6%
(12:51) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at RICE25, for 9 yards to the RICE25, out of bounds at RICE25Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
64.3%
(12:24) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 2 yards gain to the RICE23 (#54 A.Harnetiaux; #10 K.Condoll), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
66.9%
(11:45) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 13 yards gain to the RICE10 (#7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
66.7%
(11:13) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #86 G.Correia thrown to RICE00Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
66.6%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 2 yards gain to the RICE08 (#10 K.Condoll)Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
64.7%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at RICE11, for 3 yards loss to the RICE11 (#3 K.Akui)Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
68.8%
(09:50) #38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi), clock 09:47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · -6 yds · 2:1035% → 35%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.2%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 2 yards gain to the RICE27 (#0 D.Laffitte; #8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
64.8%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 5 yards gain to the RICE32 (#33 T.Powell)Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
64.7%
(08:34) Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 3 yards gain to the RICE35 (#43 N.Baumgartner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
63.7%
(08:01) Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush right for 1 yard loss to the RICE34 (#5 S.Harris; #43 N.Baumgartner)Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
64.2%
(07:15) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Clark thrown to RICE38 broken up by #43 N.BaumgartnerSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-15
65.3%
(07:10) Shotgun #11 J.Brown sacked for loss of 15 yards to the RICE19 (#35 T.Khajavi), fumble by #11 J.Brown recovered by FRES #11 D.Hampsten at RICE19, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1772% → 84%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
71.8%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 7 yards gain to the RICE12 (#54 A.Harnetiaux), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 3
OPP 12
-1
71.6%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 1 yard loss to the RICE13 (#44 C.King; #56 S.Clarke)Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
69.9%
(05:59) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #0 E.Avit caught at RICE10, for 6 yards to the RICE07 (#54 A.Harnetiaux), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.1%
(05:31) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 0 yards to the RICE07 (#8 J.Mutombo)Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.2%
(04:44) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #0 E.Avit caught at RICE00, for 7 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:44 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2721% → 19%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.9%
(04:41) Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 2 yards gain to the RICE27 (#1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
78.6%
(04:02) Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush left for 1 yard gain to the RICE28 (#5 S.Harris; #43 N.Baumgartner)Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
79.8%
(03:18) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left thrown to RICE27 broken up by #95 M.NoonanSimilar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+5
80.6%
(03:13) #29 C.Durkin punt 42 yards to the FRES30 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 5 yards to the FRES35 (#19 J.Clark)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0582% → 96%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
82.4%
(03:05) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 3 yards gain to the FRES38 (#20 B.Fletcher), out of bounds PENALTY FRES Holding (#69 O.Weigel) 10 yards from FRES35 to FRES25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
82.0%
(02:44) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.McClain thrown to FRES49Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+8
82.9%
(02:38) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FRES33 fumbled by #7 J.Mandal at FRES36 forced by #2 J.Chavez recovered by FRES #0 E.Avit at FRES33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+14
82.3%
(01:51) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at FRES30, for 14 yards to the FRES47, out of bounds at FRES47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
86.8%
(01:14) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #11 J.Farrar caught at RICE47, for 10 yards to the RICE43 (#12 J.Benjamin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
87.2%
(00:33) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the RICE42 (#11 C.Clark-Jolivet)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+17
87.8%
(14:56) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at RICE46, for 17 yards to the RICE25 (#2 J.Chavez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
88.3%
(14:27) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 15 yards gain to the RICE10 (#7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
88.6%
(13:47) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 0 yards to the RICE10 (#44 C.King; #8 J.Mutombo)Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
88.7%
(13:05) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #0 E.Avit thrown to RICE00 PENALTY RICE Face Mask (#5 J.Harper) 5 yards from RICE10 to RICE05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.7%
(12:59) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 5 yards gain to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:00, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:486% → 17%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
93.7%
(12:51) Shotgun #6 B.Grice rush left for 9 yards gain to the RICE31 (#33 T.Powell), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
93.3%
(12:22) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the RICE32 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #36 T.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
93.9%
(11:56) Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the RICE39 (#36 T.Nix; #9 M.Xepera)Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
94.0%
(11:19) Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep middle to #81 B.Walker thrown to FRES25 QB hurried by #6 J.JacksSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
94.2%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the RICE44 (#1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
94.1%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 3 yards gain to the RICE47 (#35 T.Khajavi; #43 N.Baumgartner)Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
94.5%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #19 J.Clark caught at FRES49, for 4 yards to the FRES49, out of bounds at FRES49Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-1
94.5%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Hardeman Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FRES50 (#11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 4
50
+50
83.5%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 50 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:58, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1688% → 97%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.9%
(08:55) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 6 yards gain to the FRES31 (#12 J.Benjamin), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
88.8%
(08:20) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 17 yards gain to the FRES48 (#12 J.Benjamin; #7 A.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
96.9%
(07:41) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 52 yards gain to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:37, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:395% → 4%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
PENALTY RICE False Start (#7 B.Jackson Jr.) 5 yards from RICE25 to RICE20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
95.6%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short right to #6 B.Grice caught at RICE35, for 15 yards to the RICE35 (#33 T.Powell; #5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
95.5%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush left for 11 yards gain to the RICE46 (#33 T.Powell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
95.5%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass complete short left to #7 B.Jackson Jr. caught at FRES42, for 12 yards to the FRES42, out of bounds at FRES42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.7%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #6 B.Grice thrown to FRES22Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
95.7%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 42 yards gain (2) to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:13 PENALTY RICE Holding (#71 C.Principe) 10 yards from FRES40 to FRES50Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 18
50
+1
96.0%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush left for 1 yard gain to the FRES49 (#36 T.Nix)Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 17
OPP 49
+5
96.4%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 T.Byars rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FRES44 (#36 T.Nix)Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
96.2%
(04:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown pass incomplete short left to #7 B.Jackson Jr. thrown to FRES35 broken up by #7 L.Mouzon, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21END OF GAME
13 plays · 31 yds · 4:1598% → 99%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 9
OWN 44
+6
98.0%
(04:54) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FRES50 (#20 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 3
50
-2
98.1%
(04:11) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FRES48 (#15 M.Aribisala)Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+9
98.5%
(03:27) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FRES45, for 9 yards to the RICE43 (#3 K.Akui), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.5%
(02:42) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 0 yards to the RICE43 (#94 B.Bays; #15 M.Aribisala)Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
98.5%
(02:40) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush left for 9 yards gain to the RICE34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+17
98.4%
(02:25) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #80 J.Garrison caught at RICE19, for 17 yards to the RICE17 (#3 K.Akui), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
99.3%
(01:54) Kneel down by #7 J.Mandal at RICE21 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 14
OPP 21
-2
99.3%
(01:13) Kneel down by #7 J.Mandal at RICE23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 16
OPP 23
-2
99.2%
(00:35) Kneel down by #7 J.Mandal at RICE25 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:44
(04:44) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #0 E.Avit caught at RICE00, for 7 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:44 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)
+13.1
TD · Q2 1:04
(01:07) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete deep left to #1 J.McClain caught at RICE01, for 28 yards to the RICE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:04, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #53 J.Baldi)
+11.4
TD · Q4 8:58
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Brown rush right for 50 yards gain to the FRES00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:58, 1ST DOWN #28 E.Gota kick attempt good (H: #29 C.Durkin, LS: #51 P.Derichsweiler)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com