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SDAK

South Dakota 24 at Boise State 38

BOIS
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadSDAK aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreSDAK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:31 · (00:36) #16 B.Honore Jr. punt 36 yards to the BOI09 fair catch by #3 C.Bates at BOI09
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+32.1Home team on offense+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:41: (07:43) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 3 yards gain to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:41 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +4.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:49: (02:49) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete deep right to #6 T.Boze caught at BOI14, for 59 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:49, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Ing kick attempt good (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum) — SDAK win probability +9.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:33: (10:33) #19 B.Ing field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum), clock 10:33 — SDAK win probability +12.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: SDAK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:25: (06:25) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +20.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:33: (01:42) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 83 yards gain to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:33, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +8.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDAK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:07SDAK 4th & 11 at SDAK 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:41SDAK 4th & 5 at SDAK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17BOIS 4th & 1 at SDAK 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.5%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:56SDAK 4th & 6 at SDAK 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:31SDAK 4th & 11 at BOIS 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:33BOIS 4th & 4 at SDAK 21, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:05SDAK 4th & 5 at SDAK 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:06BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:50BOIS 4th & 3 at SDAK 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−10.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:33SDAK 4th & 5 at BOIS 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−10.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:54SDAK 4th & 14 at SDAK 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:44SDAK 4th & 9 at BOIS 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SDAK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:29SDAK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:04BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:39SDAK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:04BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:49SDAK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:25BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−1.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:33BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDAKDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 3:533% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.9%
(14:58) PENALTY USD False Start (#83 J.Miller) 5 yards from USD25 to USD20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
96.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short left to #7 K.Jones-Logan caught at USD17, for 3 yards loss to the USD17 (#20 K.Hall)Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+2
96.8%
(14:22) #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the USD19 (#20 K.Hall)Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+18
96.7%
(13:44) #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short right to #9 T.Bryant caught at USD37, for 18 yards to the USD37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
96.6%
(13:08) Shotgun #7 K.Jones-Logan rush left for 5 yards loss to the USD32 (#8 S.Smith)Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+5
96.5%
(12:27) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short left to #83 J.Miller caught at USD37, for 5 yards to the USD37 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan; #4 T.Anderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-1
96.4%
(11:52) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USD36 (#99 M.Madrie; #1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
96.3%
(11:18) #16 B.Honore Jr. punt 58 yards to the BOI06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
96.2%
(11:07) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the BOI06 (#50 C.Dixon; #3 G.Hardman)Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
96.1%
(10:31) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep middle to #5 A.Wright thrown to USD45Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 10
OWN 6
0
96.1%
(10:26) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BOI10Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 10
OWN 6
0
96.0%
(10:22) #37 O.Doyle punt 55 yards to the USD39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:264% → 4%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.0%
(10:10) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short middle to #86 C.Herrin thrown to USD46Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
96.0%
(10:07) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the USD43 (#20 K.Hall)Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+1
95.8%
(09:20) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the USD44 (#97 M.Edward; #92 D.Latu)Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
95.8%
(08:47) #16 B.Honore Jr. punt 36 yards to the BOI20 fair catch by #3 C.Bates at BOI20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
95.8%
(08:42) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 4 yards loss to the BOI16 fumbled by #0 D.Riley at BOI20 forced by #3 G.Hardman recovered by USD #2 K.Kolarik at BOI16, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 5TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.2%
(08:34) #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short left to #4 B.Cohoon caught at BOI00, for 16 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:29, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Ing kick attempt good (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:0695% → 95%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.3%
(08:29) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 4 yards gain to the BOI29 (#9 T.White; #50 C.Dixon)Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
95.2%
(07:53) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BOI36 (#2 K.Kolarik), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
94.9%
(07:20) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete deep middle to #19 R.Jones caught at USD37, for 31 yards to the USD33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
95.0%
(06:38) #19 R.Jones rush left for 8 yards gain to the USD25 (#4 J.Boehm-Peterson)Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
94.9%
(06:03) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #26 S.Gaines thrown to USD25Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
94.7%
(05:55) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USD24 (#93 J.Bowie; #49 W.Abrams)Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
94.5%
(05:20) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 0 yards to the USD24 (#9 T.White; #3 G.Hardman), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:176% → 6%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.1%
(05:18) #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short left to #2 B.White thrown to USD37 broken up by #43 J.RippSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
94.1%
(05:13) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the USD26 (#8 S.Smith)Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+2
93.9%
(04:32) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the USD28 (#8 S.Smith; #97 M.Edward)Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
93.8%
(04:00) #16 B.Honore Jr. punt 37 yards to the BOI35, out of bounds at BOI35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:3994% → 94%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.6%
(03:54) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI39, for 9 yards to the BOI44 (#25 R.Stewart; #3 G.Hardman)Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
93.6%
(03:15) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 5 yards gain to the BOI49 (#3 G.Hardman; #49 W.Abrams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
93.3%
(02:39) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 5 yards gain to the USD46 (#24 H.Brun; #57 I.Wray)Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
93.2%
(02:03) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #83 Q.Williams Jr. thrown to USD41Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+12
93.0%
(02:02) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USD34 (#46 N.Laperi), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USD Personal Foul (#37 C.Heier) 15 yards from USD34 to USD19, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
93.1%
(01:28) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USD14 (#49 W.Abrams; #37 C.Heier)Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
92.8%
(00:56) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #26 S.Gaines thrown to USD10Similar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+5
92.5%
(00:52) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at USD09, for 5 yards to the USD09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.1%
(00:09) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #19 R.Jones caught at USD04, for 9 yards to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:257% → 10%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.4%
(00:04) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete deep right to #2 B.White thrown to BOI42 QB hurried by #17 L.Brantley PENALTY BOI Pass Interference (#20 K.Hall) 15 yards from USD25 to USD40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
96.9%
C. Pierre Jr. run for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
92.8%
Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush middle for 15 yards gain to the BOI45 (#17 L.Brantley; #91 B.Bol), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
92.6%
(14:11) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete deep right to #9 T.Bryant caught at BOI08, for 40 yards to the BOI05, out of bounds at BOI05, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.4%
(13:43) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short right to #6 T.Boze caught at BOI01, for 5 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:39 #19 B.Ing kick attempt good (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:4191% → 93%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.2%
(13:29) #0 D.Riley rush left for 5 yards gain to the BOI35 (#24 H.Brun; #57 I.Wray)Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
91.2%
(12:57) #0 D.Riley rush right for 0 yards to the BOI35 (#57 I.Wray; #9 T.White)Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+14
90.5%
(12:32) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI45, for 14 yards to the BOI49 (#14 D.Sechser), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.9%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #5 A.Wright thrown to USD46Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
90.8%
(12:13) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #26 S.Gaines caught at USD44, for 7 yards to the USD44 (#24 H.Brun), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
90.7%
(11:37) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 5 yards gain to the USD39 (#24 H.Brun; #25 R.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
90.3%
(11:02) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #0 D.Riley caught at USD44, for 12 yards to the USD27 (#49 W.Abrams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
90.4%
(10:17) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 4 yards gain to the USD23 (#49 W.Abrams; #2 K.Kolarik)Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
89.9%
(09:40) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USD17 (#49 W.Abrams; #24 H.Brun), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
89.5%
(08:54) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush left for 9 yards gain to the USD08, out of bounds at USD08Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
88.8%
(08:16) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 5 yards gain to the USD03 (#24 H.Brun; #4 J.Boehm-Peterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.5%
(07:43) #26 S.Gaines rush right for 3 yards gain to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:41 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 11INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3910% → 10%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.1%
(07:42) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush left for 1 yard loss to the USD24 (#1 B.Phelps; #8 S.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
90.0%
(07:05) Shotgun #12 J.Proctor pass incomplete short right to #9 T.Bryant thrown to USD20Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
90.3%
(07:04) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass intercepted by #4 T.Anderson at BOI30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:3391% → 94%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
90.6%
(06:57) #4 M.Madsen pass complete deep right to #5 A.Wright caught at USD50, for 21 yards to the USD49 QB hurried by #46 N.Laperi and #49 W.Abrams, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
91.2%
(06:16) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 3 yards gain to the USD46 (#57 I.Wray; #50 C.Dixon)Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+14
91.0%
(05:36) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush right for 14 yards gain to the USD32 (#9 T.White; #49 W.Abrams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
91.7%
(05:05) #0 D.Riley rush right for 3 yards gain to the USD29 (#44 J.Starman)Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
91.6%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USD25 (#11 C.Wallner)Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+14
91.0%
(04:06) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at USD20, for 14 yards to the USD11 (#24 H.Brun), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
91.2%
(03:25) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USD08 (#93 J.Bowie)Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
90.9%
(02:46) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USD04 (#49 W.Abrams; #11 C.Wallner)Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
93.7%
(02:07) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #3 C.Bates caught at USD01, for 4 yards to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:04, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:186% → 6%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
93.8%
(01:55) #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the USD26 (#99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
93.6%
(01:13) #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USD27 (#96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+29
93.9%
(01:11) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short left to #3 C.Pierre Jr. caught at USD21, for 29 yards to the BOI44 (#95 M.Stege), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.6%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete deep left to #6 T.Boze thrown to BOI15Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
92.9%
(00:49) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski rush left for 1 yard loss to the BOI45, out of bounds at BOI45Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
93.3%
(00:43) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete deep right to #2 B.White thrown to BOI24Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
93.6%
(00:36) #16 B.Honore Jr. punt 36 yards to the BOI09 fair catch by #3 C.Bates at BOI09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
94.1%
(00:32) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 8 yards gain to the BOI17 (#50 C.Dixon; #49 W.Abrams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:1592% → 92%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.8%
(14:58) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #82 B.Ford caught at BOI28, for 6 yards to the BOI31 (#24 H.Brun)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
92.0%
(14:21) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOI36 (#49 W.Abrams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
91.8%
(13:45) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 2 yards gain to the BOI38 (#44 J.Starman; #46 N.Laperi)Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
91.5%
(13:13) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI43, for 10 yards to the BOI48 (#4 J.Boehm-Peterson; #49 W.Abrams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
91.7%
(12:34) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #3 C.Bates caught at BOI44, for 10 yards to the USD42 (#25 R.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
91.9%
(11:54) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 6 yards gain to the USD36 (#50 C.Dixon; #2 K.Kolarik)Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+9
91.7%
(11:16) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USD27 (#9 T.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
91.7%
(10:36) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #82 B.Ford caught at USD21, for 6 yards to the USD21, out of bounds at USD21Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-4
92.1%
(09:55) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 4 yards loss to the USD25 (#57 I.Wray)Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+4
91.4%
(09:18) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #26 S.Gaines caught at USD21, for 4 yards to the USD21 QB hurried by #50 C.Dixon, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
91.9%
(08:32) #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 08:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:148% → 8%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
91.8%
(08:28) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush left for 14 yards gain to the USD38 (#22 R.Tillmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.1%
(07:50) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short right to #2 B.White thrown to BOI50 QB hurried by #97 M.Edward and #92 D.LatuSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
91.2%
(07:45) Shotgun #7 K.Jones-Logan rush right for 5 yards gain to the USD43 (#6 J.Washington Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
91.1%
(07:13) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Pierre Jr. thrown to USD44Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
91.8%
(07:07) #16 B.Honore Jr. punt 47 yards to the BOI10 fair catch by #3 C.Bates at BOI10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:5092% → 91%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
92.3%
(07:03) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOI15 (#25 R.Stewart; #57 I.Wray)Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
92.3%
(06:30) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 5 yards gain to the BOI20 (#25 R.Stewart; #46 N.Laperi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
92.2%
(05:46) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #26 S.Gaines caught at BOI18, for 1 yard loss to the BOI19 (#49 W.Abrams)Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+9
91.9%
(05:07) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #5 A.Wright thrown to BOI36 PENALTY BOI Holding (#70 K.Cox) 9 yards from BOI19 to BOI10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+10
92.1%
(05:01) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 10 yards gain to the BOI20 (#25 R.Stewart; #99 A.Tomaszewski)Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
91.6%
(04:18) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BOI23 QB hurried by #46 N.LaperiSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
91.2%
(04:12) #37 O.Doyle punt 35 yards to the USD45, out of bounds at USD45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 18TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:119% → 18%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
91.2%
(04:06) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short right to #6 T.Boze caught at USD45, for 9 yards to the BOI46 (#20 K.Hall), out of bounds PENALTY USD Personal Foul (#4 B.Cohoon) 15 yards from BOI46 to USD39Similar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 16
OWN 31
+2
91.8%
(02:49) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USD41 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+59
82.2%
(02:49) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete deep right to #6 T.Boze caught at BOI14, for 59 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:49, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Ing kick attempt good (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:5283% → 83%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.7%
(02:49) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BOI36 (#4 J.Boehm-Peterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
83.2%
(02:11) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 7 yards gain to the BOI43 (#9 T.White)Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
84.2%
(01:34) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOI48 (#11 C.Wallner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
84.1%
(00:52) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USD45 (#9 T.White; #57 I.Wray)Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
84.1%
(00:17) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USD41 (#11 C.Wallner; #93 J.Bowie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
84.0%
PENALTY BOI False Start (#69 Z.Esty) 5 yards from USD41 to USD46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+17
82.8%
(14:57) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #82 B.Ford caught at USD32, for 17 yards to the USD29 (#9 T.White; #25 R.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
86.1%
(14:17) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #5 A.Wright caught at USD30, for 2 yards to the USD27 (#4 J.Boehm-Peterson)Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
85.8%
(13:42) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #13 D.Morris caught at USD22, for 5 yards to the USD22 (#25 R.Stewart)Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
84.7%
(12:56) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to USD19 broken up by #49 W.AbramsSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 3
OPP 22
-2
83.2%
(12:56) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 2 yards to the USD24 (#44 J.Starman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 20FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5721% → 37%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+46
79.4%
(12:50) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete deep right to #9 T.Bryant caught at BOI30, for 46 yards to the BOI30 (#10 M.Soliai), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
73.1%
(12:06) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short right to #3 C.Pierre Jr. caught at BOI35, for 4 yards to the BOI26, out of bounds at BOI26Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
72.0%
PENALTY USD False Start 5 yards from BOI26 to BOI31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
72.3%
(11:14) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete deep right to #2 B.White thrown to BOI03 QB hurried by #5 J.Virgin-MorganSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+6
75.1%
(11:07) Shotgun #33 C.Fletcher rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI25 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
63.1%
(10:33) #19 B.Ing field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum), clock 10:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0370% → 93%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
(10:31) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BOI39Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.1%
(10:28) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #0 D.Riley caught at BOI29, for 6 yards to the BOI31 (#49 W.Abrams), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
68.3%
(09:56) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI34, for 9 yards to the BOI40 (#25 R.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
71.7%
(09:22) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 13 yards gain to the USD47 (#11 C.Wallner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.1%
(08:44) #0 D.Riley rush left for 0 yards to the USD47 (#37 C.Heier; #44 J.Starman)Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
71.9%
(08:03) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #19 R.Jones caught at USD45, for 8 yards to the USD39 (#4 J.Boehm-Peterson)Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+25
70.7%
(07:30) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 25 yards gain to the USD14 (#49 W.Abrams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
72.6%
(07:09) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USD02 (#2 K.Kolarik), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.9%
(06:25) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1810% → 9%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
89.9%
(06:16) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USD11 (#97 M.Edward, #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+5
90.1%
(05:42) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the USD16 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
90.8%
(05:06) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short left to #6 T.Boze thrown to USD35Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 14
OWN 16
-3
91.2%
(04:59) #16 B.Honore Jr. punt 46 yards to the BOI38 muffed by #3 C.Bates at BOI38 recovered by USD #4 B.Cohoon at BOI35, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 18 yds · 3:0314% → 9%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
86.1%
(04:47) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete deep right to #2 B.White thrown to BOI01Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
84.9%
(04:37) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the BOI27 (#17 L.Brantley), out of bounds PENALTY USD Holding (#83 J.Miller) 10 yards from BOI35 to BOI45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+15
87.8%
(04:16) #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete short right to #2 B.White caught at BOI30, for 15 yards to the BOI30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
85.9%
(03:31) Shotgun #33 C.Fletcher rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI24 (#17 L.Brantley; #4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
85.6%
(02:57) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete deep right to #7 K.Jones-Logan thrown to BOI00Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-4
86.7%
(02:52) Shotgun #7 K.Jones-Logan rush left for 4 yards loss to the BOI28 (#96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+10
89.6%
(02:10) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short right to #2 B.White thrown to BOI15 broken up by #7 J.Mickey PENALTY BOI Holding (#22 R.Tillmon) 10 yards from BOI28 to BOI18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
84.0%
(02:06) Shotgun #3 C.Pierre Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BOI17 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
85.5%
(02:00) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short middle to #2 B.White thrown to BOI02 broken up by #4 T.AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
89.7%
(01:55) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short middle to #6 T.Boze thrown to BOI03Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 9
OPP 17
0
90.7%
(01:51) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass incomplete short right to #2 B.White thrown to BOI00 broken up by #20 K.Hall QB hurried by #1 B.Phelps, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
99.5%
(01:42) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 83 yards gain to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:33, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDAKDrive 25INT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:061% → 2%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
98.7%
(01:24) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USD21 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 19
OWN 21
-2
98.5%
(01:18) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass intercepted by #4 T.Anderson at BOI50 #4 T.Anderson return 2 yards to the USD48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.4%
(01:06) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USD45 (#93 J.Bowie)Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-2
99.4%
(00:28) Kneel down by #4 M.Madsen at USD47 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:25
(06:25) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25 #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow)
+20.3
FG · Q4 10:33
(10:33) #19 B.Ing field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum), clock 10:33
-12
TD · Q3 2:49
(02:49) Shotgun #1 A.Modrzewski pass complete deep right to #6 T.Boze caught at BOI14, for 59 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:49, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Ing kick attempt good (H: #16 B.Honore Jr., LS: #41 D.Viscum)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com