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SAC

Sacramento State 3 at Fresno State 49

FRES
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.1FRES 99.9%#38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from28 yards GOOD (H: #41 A.Chavez, LS:#52 E.Rossetti), clock 07:09AWAY 3 - HOME 49 · Q4 7:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:09 · #38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #41 A.Chavez, LS: #52 E.Rossetti), clock 07:09
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+29.9Blowout margin+17.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.4Garbage-time factor+13.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Rayshon Luke 18 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Manaki Watanabe Kick) — FRES win probability +2.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:58: Ezekiel Avit 73 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Jayden Mandal Pass to Gavin Correia for Two-Point Conversion) — FRES win probability +3.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:19: #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:19 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #7 J.Mandal, LS: #52 E.Rossetti) — FRES win probability +4.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:28: Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:28, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 E.Rossetti) — FRES win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:02: Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 5 yards gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:02, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 E.Rossetti) — FRES win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SAC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 10:27FRES 4th & 1 at SAC 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:36SAC 4th & 1 at SAC 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:35FRES 4th & 4 at SAC 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:47SAC 4th & 11 at SAC 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:42SAC 4th & 2 at SAC 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:09SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:35SAC 4th & 14 at SAC 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:28SAC 4th & 7 at FRES 42, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    30% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:57SAC 4th & 4 at FRES 45, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:50SAC 4th & 15 at FRES 17, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:02SAC 4th & 9 at FRES 21, down 43
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:09FRES 4th & 10 at SAC 10, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:09SAC 4th & 1 at SAC 34, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:08SAC 4th & 9 at SAC 41, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 18, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 14:53FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:58FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:19FRES Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:28FRES Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:02FRES Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:43FRES Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:3388% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
88.2%
Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FRES38 (#33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+28
88.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES45, for 28 yards to the SACST34, out of bounds at SACST34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
88.2%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SACST30 (#90 A.Chambers)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
88.2%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SACST23 (#2 D.Thornton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
88.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at SACST31, for 8 yards to the SACST15 (#3 A.Wallace; #6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
87.6%
(11:50) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 0 yards to the SACST15 (#18 F.Puloka; #26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
87.5%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SACST14 (#3 A.Wallace; #6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-2
87.1%
#24 J.Gillick rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SACST16 (#93 M.Kindle; #6 W.Smith Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5113% → 14%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
86.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #16 J.Williams caught at SACST21, for 6 yards to the SACST22 (#8 M.Owusu; #1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+9
86.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush left for 9 yards gain to the SACST31 (#1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Wilson thrown to SACST40Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
86.9%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SACST33 (#8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+7
87.0%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at SACST39, for 7 yards to the SACST40 (#4 E.Tierney), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
86.0%
#37 H.Adams punt 49 yards to the FRES11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:1387% → 86%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+27
86.6%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES15, for 27 yards to the FRES38, out of bounds at FRES38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
86.8%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush left for 6 yards gain to the FRES44, out of bounds at FRES44Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
86.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #87 J.Appleget caught at FRES47, for 5 yards to the FRES49 (#26 T.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.0%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #0 E.Avit thrown to SACST45Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
86.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #1 J.McClain caught at SACST45, for 6 yards to the SACST45 (#18 F.Puloka)Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
85.9%
(04:48) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to SACST42Similar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
85.5%
#41 N.Verdugo punt 42 yards to the SACST03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:4815% → 16%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
85.3%
Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SACST06 (#8 M.Owusu; #11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+7
85.4%
Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush left for 7 yards gain to the SACST13 (#8 M.Owusu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-4
84.8%
(03:24) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 4 yards loss to the SACST09 (#0 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+3
85.0%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #22 I.Ene caught at SACST12, for 3 yards to the SACST12 (#27 G.Grimes)Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
85.0%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to SACST25Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 11
OWN 12
+1
84.4%
#37 H.Adams punt 43 yards to the FRES45 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 1 yard to the FRES46 (#23 C.Scott)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:5485% → 87%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
85.1%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES48 (#52 I.Chala Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+28
85.1%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete deep left to #5 J.Freeman caught at SACST24, for 28 yards to the SACST24, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
85.5%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SACST22 (#22 E.Mullican)Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
85.5%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #5 J.Freeman caught at SACST20, for 4 yards to the SACST18 (#22 E.Mullican)Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
87.2%
Rayshon Luke 18 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Manaki Watanabe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 9 yds · 2:4413% → 13%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #2 M.Coleman thrown to SACST28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.9%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at SACST34, for 9 yards to the SACST34 (#7 L.Mouzon)Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
86.0%
(14:11) #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SACST36 (#7 L.Mouzon; #1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
86.3%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SACST35 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
86.6%
#8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at SACST44, for 9 yards to the SACST44, out of bounds at SACST44Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
85.7%
(12:42) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #16 J.Williams thrown to SACST44Similar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+3
86.0%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at SACST47, for 3 yards to the SACST47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+10
86.0%
PENALTY SACST Holding (#54 S.Key) 10 yards from SACST44 to SACST34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+4
86.7%
#37 H.Adams punt 43 yards to the FRES23 #10 J.Malau’ulu return 4 yards to the FRES27 (#16 J.Williams)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
90.1%
Ezekiel Avit 73 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Jayden Mandal Pass to Gavin Correia for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:239% → 8%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.5%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush left for 1 yard loss to the SACST24 (#43 N.Baumgartner; #6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-14
91.5%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right thrown to SACST35 QB hurried by #8 M.Owusu PENALTY SACST Intentional GroundingSimilar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+11
91.7%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #5 R.Brown caught at SACST21, for 11 yards to the SACST21, out of bounds at SACST21Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
91.7%
#37 H.Adams punt 37 yards to the FRES42 fair catch by #10 J.Malau’ulu at FRES42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:1691% → 96%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
90.6%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES40, for 8 yards to the FRES50 (#58 J.Howard Jr.; #26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 2
50
+4
90.8%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SACST46 (#2 D.Thornton; #1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+32
90.7%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #0 E.Avit for 32 yards to the SACST14 (#6 W.Smith Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
91.0%
(09:08) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SACST13 (#33 A.Rocha; #45 X.Williams)Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+9
91.0%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at SACST14, for 9 yards to the SACST04 (#1 B.Silvera; #6 W.Smith Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
91.0%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SACST01 (#9 M.Tullis; #33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.0%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 0 yards to the SACST01 (#55 M.Bailey; #3 A.Wallace)Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
#7 J.Mandal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:19 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #7 J.Mandal, LS: #52 E.Rossetti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 10INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:045% → 4%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.4%
Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SACST32 (#1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
94.7%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #22 I.Ene caught at SACST37, for 5 yards to the SACST37, out of bounds at SACST37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
95.8%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass intercepted by #5 S.Harris at FRES45 #5 S.Harris return 19 yards to the SACST36 (#54 S.Key) PENALTY FRES Illegal Block in Back (#6 J.Jacks) 10 yards from FRES47 to FRES37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:4796% → 99%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.2%
#2 R.Luke rush middle for 0 yards to the FRES37 (#26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
96.2%
#7 J.Mandal rush left for 1 yard gain to the FRES38 (#1 B.Silvera), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+5
96.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #5 J.Freeman caught at FRES38, for 5 yards to the FRES43 (#3 A.Wallace; #9 M.Tullis) PENALTY SACST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#1 B.Silvera) 15 yards from FRES43 to SACST42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
96.3%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #6 B.Donelson caught at SACST43, for 1 yard loss to the SACST43 QB hurried by #9 M.Tullis (#33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+5
96.3%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #86 G.Correia caught at SACST38, for 5 yards to the SACST38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+11
96.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #1 J.McClain caught at SACST30, for 11 yards to the SACST27 (#3 A.Wallace; #9 M.Tullis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
97.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #11 J.Farrar rush left for 16 yards gain to the SACST11 (#29 C.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.8%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:28, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 E.Rossetti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #82 K.Koontz caught at SACST30, for 8 yards to the SACST33 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
98.9%
Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SACST41 (#9 M.Xepera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
99.1%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at FRES45, for 14 yards to the FRES45 (#4 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.0%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush right for 0 yards to the FRES45, out of bounds at FRES45Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
(00:43) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at FRES40, for 3 yards to the FRES42 (#31 K.Harris), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
99.0%
(00:37) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES25 QB hurried by #6 J.JacksSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
99.0%
(00:31) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES32, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:2899% → 99%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush left for 6 yards gain to the FRES48 (#3 A.Wallace; #9 M.Tullis)Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
98.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at FRES47, for 6 yards to the SACST46 (#3 A.Wallace), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
98.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #87 J.Appleget caught at SACST34, for 12 yards to the SACST34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
98.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short to #2 R.Luke for 1 yard to the SACST33, out of bounds at SACST33Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+51
98.9%
Manaki Watanabe 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:031% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
98.7%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush middle for 2 yards loss to the SACST17 (#11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+7
98.7%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at SACST24, for 7 yards to the SACST24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+13
98.8%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at SACST31, for 13 yards to the SACST37, out of bounds at SACST37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
98.7%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 12 yards gain to the SACST49 (#31 K.Harris; #95 M.Noonan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
98.5%
Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FRES45 (#4 E.Tierney; #5 S.Harris)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES42Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
98.9%
(12:06) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #99 D.Blake thrown to FRES44 broken up by #99 L.GoodspeedSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
98.9%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #16 J.Williams thrown to FRES35, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5599% → 100%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
99.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FRES44, for 13 yards to the SACST42, out of bounds at SACST42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.2%
Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 42 yards gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:15 PENALTY FRES Holding (#71 R.Fullwood) 10 yards from SACST42 to FRES48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+5
99.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #11 J.Farrar caught at FRES46, for 5 yards to the SACST47 (#29 C.Reese)Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+21
99.2%
Shotgun #10 J.Malau’ulu pass complete short right to #7 J.Mandal caught at SACST49, for 21 yards to the SACST26, out of bounds at SACST26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 0 yards to the SACST26 (#33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right thrown to SACST17 QB hurried by #33 A.RochaSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+16
99.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep left to #5 J.Freeman thrown to SACST00 PENALTY SACST Pass Interference (#29 C.Reese) 16 yards from SACST26 to SACST10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.2%
PENALTY SACST Offside (#93 M.Kindle) 5 yards from SACST10 to SACST05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 5 yards gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:02, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 E.Rossetti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 16FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:121% → 0%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.5%
Shotgun rush left for 10 yards gain to the SACST35 (#4 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.5%
Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SACST40 (#18 L.Studt)Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+36
99.5%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at FRES24, for 36 yards to the FRES24, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.4%
Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES22 (#27 G.Grimes; #95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
99.4%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to FRES17Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+10
99.4%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES00 PENALTY FRES Holding (#27 G.Grimes) 10 yards from FRES22 to FRES12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
99.4%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush for 2 yards loss to the FRES14 fumbled by #8 J.Sharman at FRES15 recovered by SACST #1 J.Curtis at FRES14, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+2
99.4%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FRES12 (#11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.4%
PENALTY SACST False Start (#71 B.Summers) 5 yards from FRES12 to FRES17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 15
OPP 17
0
99.4%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle thrown to FRES15 broken up by #6 J.JacksSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+35
99.7%
#49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 04:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #2 R.Luke caught at FRES23, for 3 yards to the FRES28 (#25 N.Mitchell; #11 I.Moore Jr.)Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
99.7%
Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #1 J.McClain caught at FRES30, for 12 yards to the FRES40 (#23 C.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush left for 4 yards gain to the FRES44 (#5 N.Dimitris; #18 F.Puloka)Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+56
99.8%
(03:07) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 56 yards gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:43, 1ST DOWN #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 E.Rossetti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:410% → 0%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.8%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 18 yards gain to the SACST43 (#2 A.Cobb), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to FRES37Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.8%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SACST50 (#13 C.Cole; #6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 3
50
+18
99.8%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #2 M.Coleman caught at FRES35, for 18 yards to the FRES32 (#3 J.Carrillo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.8%
Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FRES29 (#56 J.Satele; #27 G.Grimes)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+7
99.8%
Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FRES22 (#99 L.Goodspeed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.8%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #0 D.Swinney caught at FRES24, for 1 yard to the FRES21 (#18 L.Studt; #54 S.Noa)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 0 yards to the FRES21 (#8 M.Owusu; #54 S.Noa)Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep left to #5 R.Brown thrown to FRES00Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 9
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #5 R.Brown thrown to FRES00 PENALTY SACST Holding declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Shotgun #3 K.Martin pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FRES20, for 8 yards to the FRES29 (#16 L.Holani)Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+33
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush left for 33 yards gain to the SACST38 (#21 A.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
99.9%
Shotgun #41 A.Chavez rush right for 11 yards gain to the SACST27 (#29 C.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.9%
Shotgun #27 T.Thomas rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SACST21 (#23 C.Scott)Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Shotgun #3 K.Martin rush for 0 yards to the SACST21 fumbled by #3 K.Martin at SACST21 recovered by FRES #3 K.Martin at SACST21, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+4
99.9%
Shotgun #3 K.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SACST17 (#8 D.Jeanty; #44 D.Davis), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SACST Personal Foul (#23 C.Scott) 9 yards from SACST17 to SACST08, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SACST06 (#29 C.Reese)Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 3 yards loss to the SACST09 (#94 A.Aten; #11 I.Moore Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Shotgun #3 K.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SACST05 (#29 C.Reese; #8 D.Jeanty)Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
PENALTY FRES Delay Of Game (#41 N.Verdugo) 5 yards from SACST05 to SACST10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
99.9%
#38 M.Watanabe field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #41 A.Chavez, LS: #52 E.Rossetti), clock 07:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 4:010% → 0%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SACST30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SACST34 (#3 J.Carrillo; #20 R.Regan)Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush right for 0 yards to the SACST34 (#25 J.Johnson; #95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
100.0%
#0 D.Swinney rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SACST40 (#20 R.Regan; #13 C.Cole), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
100.0%
Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush right for 1 yard gain to the SACST41 (#54 S.Noa; #95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Shotgun rush left for 0 yards to the SACST41 (#95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
100.0%
Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to FRES38Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
100.0%
#37 H.Adams punt 48 yards to the FRES11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
100.0%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FRES15 (#14 J.Holani; #25 N.Mitchell)Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-1
100.0%
Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FRES14 (#14 J.Holani)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+4
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #3 K.Martin pass complete short left to #25 K.Cotton caught at FRES13, for 4 yards to the FRES18 (#23 C.Scott)Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
100.0%
#41 N.Verdugo punt 32 yards to the FRES50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
50
+5
100.0%
#23 E.Brown rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FRES45 (#95 M.Noonan; #25 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
100.0%
Shotgun #23 E.Brown rush right for 5 yards gain to the FRES40, out of bounds at FRES40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Shotgun #23 E.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the FRES40 (#93 B.Harrington; #33 T.Powell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:19
#7 J.Mandal rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SACST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:19 #38 M.Watanabe kick attempt good (H: #7 J.Mandal, LS: #52 E.Rossetti)
+4.7
TD · Q2 11:58
Ezekiel Avit 73 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Jayden Mandal Pass to Gavin Correia for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.4
TD · Q2 14:53
Rayshon Luke 18 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Manaki Watanabe Kick)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com