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MEM

Memphis 20 at Boise State 38

BOIS
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+8.4BOIS 61.6%Akeem Wright 37 Yd pass from MadduxMadsen (Canaan Moore Kick)AWAY 17 - HOME 10 · Q2 2:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:28 · Akeem Wright 37 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior+17.2Home team on offense−4.3Garbage-time factor−2.3Score differential−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: End of 1st quarter. — MEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:10: Jaylin Carter 80 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick) — MEM win probability +9.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:28: Akeem Wright 37 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick) — BOIS win probability +8.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:07: Rasean Jones 19 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick) — BOIS win probability +16.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Philippe Laforge 36 Yd Field Goal — MEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 9:37BOIS 4th & 8 at MEM 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:40BOIS 4th & 12 at BOIS 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26BOIS 4th & 2 at MEM 2, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:33MEM 4th & 9 at BOIS 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:23BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:28BOIS 4th & 6 at MEM 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:59MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:27MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:00MEM 4th & 5 at BOIS 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−3.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:24MEM 4th & 13 at BOIS 17, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.8 ptsWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%−4.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−16.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:01BOIS 4th & 15 at BOIS 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:13MEM 4th & 17 at BOIS 48, up 4
    Numbers favored punt by 4.8 ptsWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%−4.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:11BOIS 4th & 1 at MEM 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−8.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−12.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:28BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:07BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:2380% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 3 yards gain to the BOI28 (#9 M.Montgomery) PENALTY BOI Illegal Formation 5 yards from BOI25 to BOI20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
80.1%
(14:32) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI26 (#2 C.Logan Jr.; #15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
80.0%
(14:02) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BOI30Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
79.9%
(13:59) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #3 C.Bates caught at BOI34, for 10 yards to the BOI36 (#0 I.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
79.8%
(13:23) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOI41 (#97 J.Gatling; #14 J.Tapp)Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+10
79.8%
(12:45) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #0 D.Riley caught at BOI36, for 10 yards to the MEM49, out of bounds at MEM49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
79.8%
(12:22) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MEM42 (#3 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
79.7%
(11:45) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #19 R.Jones thrown to MEM12 broken up by #1 E.Ellis Jr.Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+18
79.6%
(11:39) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 18 yards gain to the MEM24 (#3 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.6%
(11:00) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush right for 0 yards to the MEM24 (#3 D.Smith; #8 A.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
79.4%
(10:19) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 2 yards gain to the MEM22 (#8 A.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
79.2%
(09:46) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #19 R.Jones thrown to MEM02Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
79.3%
(09:37) #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 09:37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:3521% → 22%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.2%
(09:37) Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 0 yards to the MEM35 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
79.2%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short middle to #11 J.Hayes thrown to MEM45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BOI Pass Interference (#7 J.Mickey) 12 yards from MEM35 to MEM47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
78.6%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM50 (#17 L.Brantley)Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 7
50
+41
78.6%
(08:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep left to #0 H.Tipton caught at BOI09, for 41 yards to the BOI09 (#8 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
78.3%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI07 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
78.1%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush left for 3 yards gain to the BOI04 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
78.2%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI02 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:5678% → 74%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
78.4%
(06:42) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BOI14 (#22 Z.Ruffin)Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+7
78.2%
(06:02) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at BOI15, for 7 yards to the BOI21 (#22 Z.Ruffin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
78.2%
(05:22) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush right for 4 yards gain to the BOI25 (#14 J.Tapp; #90 T.Burton)Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
78.0%
(04:39) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 7 yards gain to the BOI32 (#14 J.Tapp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
78.0%
(03:52) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #86 A.Terry thrown to BOI35 broken up by #22 Z.RuffinSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
77.8%
(03:54) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #86 A.Terry caught at BOI36, for 4 yards to the BOI36 (#22 Z.Ruffin)Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+4
77.6%
(03:15) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush right for 4 yards gain to the BOI40 (#22 Z.Ruffin) PENALTY BOI Holding (#0 D.Riley) 10 yards from BOI40 to BOI30Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
77.1%
(02:40) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Bates thrown to BOI41Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
74.3%
(02:40) #37 O.Doyle punt 44 yards to the MEM26 fair catch by #17 A.Brown at MEM26 PENALTY MEM Personal Foul 13 yards from MEM26 to MEM13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:2025% → 25%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
75.0%
(02:34) Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete deep middle to #13 J.Davis thrown to BOI45 broken up by #6 J.Washington Jr.Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 23
OWN 13
+87
74.9%
Hunter Tipton 87 Yd pass from Marcus Stokes (Philippe Laforge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5DOWNS
16 plays · 73 yds · 4:4275% → 68%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.7%
(02:14) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at BOI40, for 15 yards to the BOI40 (#3 D.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.3%
(01:43) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOI43 (#3 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
75.2%
(01:05) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 8 yards gain to the MEM49 (#25 J.Clayton; #0 I.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
75.2%
(00:30) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #3 C.Bates caught at BOI47, for 8 yards to the MEM41 (#3 D.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
70.2%
(14:58) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #88 M.Wagner thrown to MEM46Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
70.0%
(14:57) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM37 (#9 M.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
69.9%
(14:36) No Huddle #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep middle to #13 D.Morris thrown to MEM00 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (#1 E.Ellis Jr.) 15 yards from MEM37 to MEM22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
70.2%
(14:31) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at MEM10, for 12 yards to the MEM10 (#2 C.Logan Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
69.3%
(13:46) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #5 A.Wright caught at MEM03, for 9 yards to the MEM01 (#8 A.Richard Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
69.6%
(13:11) #26 S.Gaines rush left for 1 yard loss to the MEM02 (#15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
68.2%
(12:34) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #45 T.Grizzle thrown to MEM00Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.7%
(12:25) #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #82 B.Ford thrown to MEM00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6FG
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:5232% → 36%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
68.2%
(12:25) Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete deep left to #13 J.Davis thrown to BOI48 PENALTY BOI Pass Interference (#6 J.Washington Jr.) 15 yards from MEM02 to MEM17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
67.4%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MEM16 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+68
67.0%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep right to #4 T.Timmons Jr. caught at BOI37, for 68 yards to the BOI16 (#8 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
63.7%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush left for 0 yards to the BOI16 (#4 T.Anderson; #43 J.Ripp)Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
63.1%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BOI15 (#1 B.Phelps; #5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
63.3%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short right to #1 T.Chapman thrown to BOI00 broken up by #8 S.SmithSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
64.1%
Philippe Laforge 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0164% → 61%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
64.0%
(09:33) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BOI27, for 17 yards to the BOI42 (#93 J.Ishmael), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
64.5%
(08:53) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BOI46 (#3 D.Smith; #9 M.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
63.7%
(08:14) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #0 D.Riley caught at BOI46, for 1 yard to the BOI47 (#0 I.Foster)Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
62.7%
(07:33) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #5 A.Wright thrown to MEM46Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+5
62.0%
PENALTY BOI Delay Of Game 5 yards from BOI47 to BOI42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
61.1%
(07:29) #37 O.Doyle punt 58 yards to the MEM00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
52.2%
Jaylin Carter 80 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3656% → 62%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
55.8%
(07:10) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 22 yards gain to the BOI47 (#3 D.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
57.8%
(06:49) #0 D.Riley rush left for 8 yards gain to the MEM45 (#1 E.Ellis Jr.; #9 M.Montgomery) PENALTY BOI Illegal Formation 5 yards from BOI47 to BOI42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+4
56.0%
(06:26) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BOI46 (#90 T.Burton; #15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+6
55.6%
(05:46) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #3 C.Bates caught at BOI50, for 6 yards to the MEM48 (#2 C.Logan Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+7
55.3%
(05:06) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MEM41 (#15 E.Kinsler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
54.8%
(04:25) #19 R.Jones rush left for 0 yards to the MEM41 (#1 E.Ellis Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
54.2%
(03:52) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MEM35 (#1 E.Ellis Jr.; #9 M.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-2
53.2%
(03:14) #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #5 A.Wright caught at MEM37, for 2 yards loss to the MEM37 (#0 I.Foster; #10 J.Wallace)Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+37
61.6%
Akeem Wright 37 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:3041% → 42%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.7%
(02:28) Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush middle for 0 yards to the MEM25 (#17 L.Brantley)Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
58.5%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete deep right to #11 J.Hayes thrown to BOI25 PENALTY BOI Pass Interference (#7 J.Mickey) 15 yards from MEM25 to MEM40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
55.3%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #0 H.Tipton caught at MEM40, for 13 yards to the BOI47 (#17 L.Brantley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
57.9%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass intercepted by #4 T.Anderson at BOI11 QB hurried by #5 J.Virgin-Morgan and #96 L.Sanusi #4 T.Anderson return for loss of 1 yard to the BOI10 (#11 J.Hayes)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:3360% → 76%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+71
59.9%
(01:51) #0 D.Riley rush left for 71 yards gain to the MEM19 (#0 I.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
76.3%
Rasean Jones 19 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 0:5929% → 38%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.4%
(01:07) Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MEM24 (#17 L.Brantley)Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+37
71.6%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep left to #0 H.Tipton caught at BOI39, for 37 yards to the BOI39 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
66.9%
(00:43) Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush right for 8 yards gain to the BOI31 (#96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 2
OPP 0
+13
65.8%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush right for 13 yards gain to the BOI18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
65.2%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #11 J.Hayes caught at BOI18, for 0 yards to the BOI18, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
65.4%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+36
62.3%
Philippe Laforge 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5637% → 37%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM29 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
62.6%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MEM27 (#17 L.Brantley)Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
64.0%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush left for 7 yards gain to the MEM34 (#17 L.Brantley) PENALTY MEM Holding 10 yards from MEM27 to MEM17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
62.9%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #0 H.Tipton caught at MEM17, for 9 yards to the MEM26 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.3%
(12:59) #30 H.Tuck punt 51 yards to the BOI23 muffed by #34 J.Lane at BOI23 recovered by BOI #34 J.Lane at BOI23, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:4562% → 65%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
62.0%
(12:55) #0 D.Riley rush left for 13 yards gain to the BOI36 (#14 J.Tapp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.3%
(12:24) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOI41 (#3 D.Smith; #15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+16
64.0%
(11:47) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 16 yards gain to the MEM43 (#9 M.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
64.7%
(11:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 5 yards gain to the MEM38 (#15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+11
64.4%
(10:45) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the MEM27 (#3 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
65.8%
(10:06) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM26 (#0 I.Foster; #56 K.Miles)Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+15
65.5%
(09:31) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MEM11 (#0 I.Foster; #3 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
65.2%
(08:53) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MEM12 (#56 K.Miles) PENALTY MEM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#56 K.Miles) 6 yards from MEM12 to MEM06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
64.9%
PENALTY BOI False Start (#75 D.Metoyer) 5 yards from MEM06 to MEM11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
64.9%
(08:10) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #83 Q.Williams Jr. thrown to MEM00 broken up by #2 C.Logan Jr.Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
64.8%
Sire Gaines 11 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT TD
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3942% → 43%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
57.6%
(08:06) Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush left for 3 yards gain to the MEM28 (#8 S.Smith) PENALTY MEM Holding (#71 X.Allen) 10 yards from MEM25 to MEM15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
55.7%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush right for 3 yards gain to the MEM18 (#17 L.Brantley; #4 T.Anderson)Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
55.8%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete deep left to #4 T.Timmons Jr. thrown to BOI32 broken up by #8 S.SmithSimilar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+11
56.9%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #12 B.Kluse caught at MEM29, for 11 yards to the MEM29 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+72
57.1%
Cam Bates 72 Yd Punt Return (Canaan Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2046% → 51%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
(06:27) Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 0 yards to the MEM25 (#97 M.Edward; #1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
54.4%
(06:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short middle to #0 H.Tipton caught at MEM28, for 16 yards to the MEM41 QB hurried by #92 D.Latu (#20 K.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
50.9%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #0 H.Tipton caught at MEM40, for 10 yards to the BOI49 (#1 B.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
49.5%
(05:05) Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush for 5 yards gain to the BOI44 (#6 J.Washington Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
48.6%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush left for 0 yards to the BOI44 (#96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
47.1%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short right to #14 J.Tapp thrown to BOI45 broken up by #1 B.PhelpsSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
49.2%
(04:04) #30 H.Tuck punt 42 yards to the BOI02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD
11 plays · 98 yds · 5:2251% → 55%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
51.4%
(03:56) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI04 (#22 Z.Ruffin)Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
50.8%
(03:26) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BOI07 (#15 E.Kinsler)Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+5
48.4%
(02:42) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BOI12, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
50.0%
(01:45) #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BOI14 (#11 J.McKinney)Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+1
49.3%
(01:03) #0 D.Riley rush right for 1 yard gain to the BOI15 (#11 J.McKinney; #14 J.Tapp)Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+40
47.0%
(00:31) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #5 A.Wright caught at BOI25, for 40 yards to the MEM45 (#0 I.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
54.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #83 Q.Williams Jr. caught at MEM34, for 11 yards to the MEM34, out of bounds at MEM34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
55.8%
(14:28) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM33 (#97 J.Gatling; #93 J.Ishmael)Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+32
55.3%
(13:45) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete deep right to #19 R.Jones caught at MEM09, for 32 yards to the MEM01 (#3 D.Smith), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - ""Similar
Q4 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.3%
Maddux Madsen 1 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:5957% → 59%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
43.2%
(13:30) Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete deep to #1 T.Chapman caught at BOI34, for 44 yards to the BOI31 (#7 J.Mickey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
37.6%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush middle for 17 yards gain to the BOI14 (#4 T.Anderson; #9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
36.5%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes rush middle for 4 yards loss to the BOI18 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+1
36.1%
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #1 T.Chapman caught at BOI15, for 1 yard to the BOI17 (#22 R.Tillmon)Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 13
OPP 17
0
37.4%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short right to #1 T.Chapman thrown to BOI07Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 13
OPP 17
-7
41.5%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BOI24 (#1 B.Phelps), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1946% → 40%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
46.0%
(11:24) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BOI32 (#22 Z.Ruffin)Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+17
48.4%
(10:47) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush left for 17 yards gain to the BOI49 (#9 M.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
50.3%
(10:03) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MEM45 (#2 C.Logan Jr.)Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
49.9%
(09:21) Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MEM42 (#0 I.Foster; #9 M.Montgomery) PENALTY BOI Holding 10 yards from MEM45 to BOI45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+4
44.2%
(08:58) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #26 S.Gaines caught at BOI43, for 4 yards to the BOI49 (#1 E.Ellis Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
43.8%
(08:14) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Bates thrown to MEM46 QB hurried by #22 Z.RuffinSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+5
41.8%
PENALTY BOI False Start 5 yards from BOI49 to BOI44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
39.8%
(08:09) #37 O.Doyle punt 47 yards to the MEM09 fair catch by #17 A.Brown at MEM09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:4665% → 74%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
35.4%
(07:59) Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short right to #12 B.Kluse thrown to MEM15Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+16
35.7%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush right for 16 yards gain to the MEM25 (#3 C.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.5%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #11 J.Hayes caught at MEM25, for 5 yards to the MEM30 (#55 M.Tuioti)Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
29.8%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #0 H.Tipton caught at MEM37, for 10 yards to the MEM40 (#22 R.Tillmon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
26.2%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short left to #0 H.Tipton caught at MEM40, for 6 yards to the MEM46 (#91 B.Bol)Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
25.9%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Carter rush middle for 0 yards to the MEM46 (#99 M.Madrie)Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+13
26.0%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #6 J.Carter caught at MEM43, for 13 yards to the BOI41 (#4 T.Anderson; #55 M.Tuioti), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
24.4%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BOI47 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 16
OPP 47
-1
23.1%
(04:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 M.Covey rush left for 1 yard loss to the BOI48 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 17
OPP 48
0
24.4%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass incomplete short right to #0 H.Tipton thrown to BOI40Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 17
OPP 48
+13
26.1%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Stokes pass complete short right to #1 T.Chapman caught at BOI35, for 13 yards to the BOI35 (#4 T.Anderson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2835% → 26%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
35.0%
(04:10) #22 J.Goff rush middle for 18 yards gain to the MEM47 (#1 E.Ellis Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
36.2%
(03:26) #22 J.Goff rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MEM46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
34.7%
(02:42) #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MEM41 (#99 D.Lowe)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
28.2%
(02:00) #22 J.Goff rush right for 3 yards gain to the MEM38 (#40 T.McDonald)Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+4
22.1%
(01:16) #27 H.Stewart III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MEM34 (#34 K.Spratling; #41 T.Nash), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
25.9%
(00:37) Kneel down by #4 M.Madsen at MEM36 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+78.7
TD · Q2 1:07
Rasean Jones 19 Yd Run (Canaan Moore Kick)
+16.3
TD · Q2 7:10
Jaylin Carter 80 Yd Run (Philippe Laforge Kick)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com