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MINN

Minnesota 13 at Purdue 41

PUR
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:10 · (00:14) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #0 J.Hayden at PUR31, End Of Play
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense+13.0Score differential+4.9Pregame prior−5.5Garbage-time factor+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.9Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:26: (02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #81 G.Burhenn caught at Min00, for 15 yards to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:26, 1ST DOWN. #0 A.Smith injured on the play #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab) — PUR win probability +3.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:55: (01:59) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 3 yards gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab) — PUR win probability +11.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:33: (09:36) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:33 #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab) — PUR win probability +6.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:11: (03:17) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep right to #8 J.Smith caught at PUR15, for 42 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:11, 1ST DOWN #12 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup) — MINN win probability +12.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:17: (13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush left for 12 yards gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:17, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab) — PUR win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:53PUR 4th & 4 at MINN 27, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:21MINN 4th & 4 at PUR 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:36MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:30PUR 4th & 1 at MINN 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−2.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48MINN 4th & 2 at PUR 31, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−1.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:38PUR 4th & 2 at MINN 10, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%−1.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−7.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:04MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10MINN 4th & 6 at PUR 39, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.1%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:44MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:45MINN 4th & 3 at PUR 18, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:33PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:44MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:59PUR 4th & 12 at MINN 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:35PUR 4th & 1 at MINN 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:30MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 42, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:26PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:26PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:55PUR Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:33PUR Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:11MINN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:17PUR Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:35PUR Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:5139% → 40%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
39.3%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR37 (#14 K.Brown; #99 T.Randle)Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+30
39.5%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #8 D.Morrissette caught at Min49, for 30 yards to the Min33 (#6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
39.8%
PENALTY PUR False Start (#59 M.Banuelos) 5 yards from Min33 to Min38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+11
39.9%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #19 A.Waseem caught at Min38, for 11 yards to the Min27 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
40.2%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #3 X.Townsend thrown to Min22Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
40.2%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #3 X.Townsend thrown to Min25 broken up by #99 T.RandleSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
40.2%
(12:55) #92 J.Echeverria Lozano field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab), clock 12:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2060% → 59%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
40.2%
(12:46) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Tracy thrown to Min45 broken up by #4 H.HinesSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+28
40.4%
(12:40) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep left to #8 J.Smith caught at PUR43, for 28 yards to the PUR43 (#4 H.Hines), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
40.4%
(11:52) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush right for 1 yard gain to the PUR42 (#92 C.Neal; #0 J.Hayden)Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
40.6%
(11:18) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at PUR38, for 5 yards to the PUR37 (#4 H.Hines; #13 J.Slaughter)Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
40.8%
(10:32) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Smith thrown to PUR20Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
41.1%
(10:27) #42 T.Weston punt 35 yards to the PUR02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3TD
17 plays · 98 yds · 7:4741% → 49%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
41.3%
(10:19) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 4 yards gain to the PUR06 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+22
41.5%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 22 yards gain to the PUR28 (#19 J.Gerlach), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
41.9%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 2 yards gain to the PUR30 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+8
42.2%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #3 X.Townsend caught at PUR33, for 8 yards to the PUR38 (#6 M.Baranowski; #5 A.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
42.7%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 3 yards gain to the PUR41 (#19 J.Gerlach; #11 K.Menz)Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
43.2%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush right for 10 yards gain to the Min49 (#5 A.West), 1ST DOWN. #93 R.Sunram injured on the playSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
43.7%
(06:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 6 yards gain to the Min43 (#19 J.Gerlach; #4 Z.Harden)Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+7
44.0%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 11 yards gain (7) to the Min32 (#6 M.Baranowski) PENALTY PUR Illegal Block in Back (#8 D.Morrissette) 10 yards from Min36 to Min46Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
44.2%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 1 yard gain to the Min45 (#0 A.Smith; #11 K.Menz)Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+6
44.4%
(05:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Min39 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
45.2%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #8 D.Morrissette caught at Min20, for 21 yards to the Min18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
45.6%
(03:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 3 yards gain to the Min15 (#6 M.Baranowski; #99 T.Randle)Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
45.9%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 0 yards to the Min15 (#0 A.Smith; #99 T.Randle)Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
49.1%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #81 G.Burhenn caught at Min00, for 15 yards to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:26, 1ST DOWN. #0 A.Smith injured on the play #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3450% → 49%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
49.7%
(02:18) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Min10 (#8 C.Madden)Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+3
50.0%
(01:39) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush right for 3 yards gain to the Min13 (#2 J.Mangham; #23 T.Smith)Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
51.0%
(00:50) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #13 N.Jennings thrown to Min19Similar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+15
51.5%
(00:47) #42 T.Weston punt 51 yards to the PUR36 #3 X.Townsend return 15 yards to the Min49 (#8 M.Gerald)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0551% → 51%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
50.7%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Min48 (#7 A.Gousby)Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
51.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at Min49, for 0 yards to the Min48 (#3 T.Bush Jr.)Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+8
51.1%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #19 A.Waseem caught at Min48, for 8 yards to the Min40 (#5 A.West; #14 K.Brown)Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
51.2%
(13:33) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the Min40 (#14 K.Brown), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3748% → 44%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.7%
(13:30) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep right to #4 R.Voss thrown to PUR37 broken up by #7 D.SaundersSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
52.1%
(13:23) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush left for 2 yards gain to the Min42 (#92 C.Neal; #0 J.Hayden)Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+19
52.8%
(12:35) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #8 J.Smith caught at PUR39, for 19 yards to the PUR39 (#4 H.Hines), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PUR is challenging the ruling on the field - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
51.3%
(11:55) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush right for 5 yards gain to the PUR34 (#7 D.Saunders) PENALTY Min UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#65 G.Johnson) 15 yards from PUR34 to PUR49Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 20
OPP 49
0
52.9%
(11:28) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #13 N.Jennings thrown to PUR44Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 20
OPP 49
+18
53.6%
(11:24) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #11 J.Tracy caught at PUR31, for 18 yards to the PUR31, out of bounds at PUR31Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+49
56.1%
(10:48) #12 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup), clock 10:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0055% → 58%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
54.9%
(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #2 F.Ijeboi caught at PUR23, for 2 yards loss to the PUR23 (#17 J.Nestor) PENALTY Min UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#49 M.Kingsbury) 15 yards from PUR23 to PUR38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
56.2%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Min48 (#19 J.Gerlach; #99 T.Randle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
57.0%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 13 yards gain to the Min35 (#17 J.Nestor; #22 M.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
57.7%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #81 G.Burhenn thrown to Min25Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
57.8%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Min18 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
58.2%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Magwood thrown to Min01 QB hurried by #5 A.WestSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
58.4%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 8 yards gain to the Min10 (#46 M.Carrier; #4 Z.Harden)Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
58.9%
(07:45) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Magwood thrown to Min00 broken up by #5 A.WestSimilar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
58.0%
(07:39) #92 J.Echeverria Lozano field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab), clock 07:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1640% → 37%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
60.5%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Min32 (#91 A.Solecki; #99 J.Hope)Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
60.8%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #11 J.Tracy caught at Min30, for 0 yards to the Min32 (#20 W.Berglund)Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
62.6%
(06:19) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Taylor thrown to Min35Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
63.2%
(06:15) #42 T.Weston punt 60 yards to the PUR08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 4:0160% → 79%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
59.6%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 2 yards gain to the PUR10 (#6 M.Baranowski). #6 M.Baranowski injured on the playSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
60.1%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 7 yards gain to the PUR17 (#46 M.Carrier)Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+26
60.1%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 26 yards gain to the PUR43 (#14 K.Brown; #9 G.Monroe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
62.9%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at PUR41, for 14 yards to the Min43 (#6 M.Baranowski), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
64.6%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush left for 33 yards gain to the Min10 (#5 A.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
66.0%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #81 G.Burhenn caught at Min07, for 7 yards to the Min03 (#17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.6%
(01:59) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 3 yards gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:3525% → 19%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
74.8%
(01:46) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush left for 2 yards gain to the Min16 (#0 J.Hayden; #5 C.Correa)Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+14
75.2%
(01:44) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at Min21, for 14 yards to the Min30 (#2 J.Mangham; #7 D.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
74.1%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep middle to #11 J.Tracy caught at PUR45, for 27 yards to the PUR43 (#2 J.Mangham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.1%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Tracy thrown to PUR25Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
72.8%
(01:07) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep right to #13 N.Jennings thrown to PUR17Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
73.6%
(01:03) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at PUR48, for 4 yards to the PUR39 (#97 W.Simms)Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
81.0%
(00:14) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #0 J.Hayden at PUR31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
80.5%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR36 (#0 A.Smith; #3 T.Bush Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0223% → 20%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush right for 7 yards gain to the Min32 (#0 J.Hayden)Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
77.4%
(14:16) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 0 yards to the Min32 (#0 J.Hayden; #5 C.Correa)Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
78.5%
(13:33) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush right for 0 yards to the Min32 (#33 J.Lewis)Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
80.5%
(12:50) #42 T.Weston punt 37 yards to the PUR31 fair catch by #3 X.Townsend at PUR31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:0281% → 93%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
81.1%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush middle for 10 yards gain to the PUR41 (#19 J.Gerlach), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
82.5%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #2 F.Ijeboi thrown to PUR48 broken up by #70 N.CrowderSimilar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
82.6%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at Min44, for 15 yards to the Min44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
85.5%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #11 T.Harris caught at Min35, for 10 yards to the Min34 (#5 A.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+30
86.1%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 30 yards gain to the Min04 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Min Face Mask (#4 Z.Harden) 2 yards from Min04 to Min02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.6%
(10:06) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 1 yard gain to the Min01 (#19 J.Gerlach)Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.8%
(09:36) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:33 #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:367% → 6%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
92.6%
(09:32) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #11 J.Tracy caught at Min41, for 19 yards to the Min44 (#21 J.Denson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
92.7%
(08:46) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right thrown to Min45 QB hurried by #92 C.NealSimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
92.9%
(08:41) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush left for 1 yard gain to the Min45 (#5 C.Correa)Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+14
93.2%
(07:55) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #1 D.Taylor caught at Min48, for 14 yards to the PUR41 (#2 J.Mangham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
93.4%
(07:11) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #13 N.Jennings caught at PUR42, for 8 yards to the PUR33 (#0 J.Hayden) PENALTY Min Holding (#11 J.Tracy) 10 yards from PUR33 to PUR43Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 12
OPP 43
0
93.9%
(06:39) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #13 N.Jennings thrown to PUR26 broken up by #29 D.NewsomeSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+7
93.9%
(06:34) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at PUR46, for 7 yards to the PUR36 (#23 T.Smith; #94 R.Lora)Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
94.3%
(05:50) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #11 J.Tracy caught at PUR28, for 11 yards to the PUR25 (#21 J.Denson Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
94.1%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short middle to #1 D.Taylor caught at PUR20, for 7 yards to the PUR18 (#5 C.Correa)Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
94.6%
(04:53) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Taylor thrown to PUR20Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
95.1%
(04:50) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #23 T.Thomas thrown to PUR25Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+37
94.3%
(04:45) #12 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup), clock 04:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0394% → 95%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.4%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short middle to #19 A.Waseem thrown to PUR25 broken up by #19 J.GerlachSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.3%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 1 yard gain to the PUR21 (#19 J.Gerlach)Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
95.2%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #81 G.Burhenn thrown to PUR31Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+17
94.9%
(03:45) #42 D.Drennan punt 51 yards to the Min28 #11 J.Tracy return 17 yards to the Min45 (#25 H.Miller; #42 D.Drennan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:155% → 17%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.1%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep right to #13 N.Jennings thrown to PUR10Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
95.1%
(03:25) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #13 N.Jennings thrown to PUR37 broken up by #7 D.Saunders, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (#7 D.Saunders) 13 yards from Min45 to PUR42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.1%
(03:21) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Taylor thrown to PUR37 QB hurried by #11 K.Burgos and #94 R.LoraSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
82.6%
(03:17) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep right to #8 J.Smith caught at PUR15, for 42 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:11, 1ST DOWN #12 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4187% → 98%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.1%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 1 yard gain to the PUR26 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
89.2%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #11 T.Harris caught at PUR37, for 24 yards to the PUR50 (#22 M.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
50
-2
90.9%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #2 F.Ijeboi caught at PUR48, for 2 yards loss to the PUR48 (#14 K.Brown)Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+15
91.1%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 15 yards gain to the Min37 (#4 Z.Harden; #6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.7%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep left to #3 X.Townsend thrown to Min07Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
91.6%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Min33 (#99 T.Randle)Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
91.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short middle to #5 C.Magwood thrown to Min24 PENALTY Min Offside (#0 A.Smith) 5 yards from Min33 to Min28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
91.8%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Min26 (#0 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
92.1%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep left to #8 D.Morrissette thrown to Min00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Min Pass Interference (#5 A.West) 15 yards from Min26 to Min11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
92.3%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Min12 (#19 J.Gerlach; #6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
98.1%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush left for 12 yards gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:17, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.9%
(13:08) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #23 T.Thomas caught at Min27, for 6 yards to the Min38 (#5 C.Correa), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
98.0%
(12:26) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #11 J.Tracy thrown to PUR50 broken up by #5 C.CorreaSimilar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+2
98.1%
(12:20) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at Min35, for 2 yards to the Min40 (#5 C.Correa; #33 J.Lewis)Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+1
98.0%
(11:47) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Min41 (#0 J.Hayden; #58 B.Ishmail), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
98.9%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep middle to #3 X.Townsend thrown to Min00Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
98.9%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush right for 0 yards to the Min41 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.0%
(10:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush right for 3 yards gain to the Min38 (#17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+5
99.0%
PENALTY PUR Delay Of Game 5 yards from Min38 to Min43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 12
OPP 43
-2
98.9%
(10:06) #42 D.Drennan punt 31 yards to the Min12 muffed by #11 J.Tracy at Min12 recovered by PUR #13 J.Slaughter at Min10, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20TD
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:1799% → 100%
Q4 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.1%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Min09 (#4 Z.Harden)Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.2%
(09:13) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Min07 (#4 Z.Harden; #99 T.Randle)Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.2%
(08:19) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 6 yards gain to the Min01 (#5 A.West; #7 A.Gousby)Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Fame Ijeboi 1 Yd Run (Jacobo Echeverria Lozano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
(07:34) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #23 T.Thomas caught at Min20, for 6 yards to the Min31 (#20 W.Berglund)Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
(07:04) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #23 T.Thomas thrown to Min35Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.9%
(07:02) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #23 T.Thomas caught at Min34, for 7 yards to the Min38 (#21 J.Denson Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
99.9%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #23 T.Thomas caught at Min36, for 1 yard loss to the Min37 (#4 H.Hines)Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
(05:49) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at Min38, for 6 yards to the Min43 (#7 D.Saunders; #20 W.Berglund). #7 D.Saunders injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-1
99.9%
(05:19) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at Min39, for 1 yard loss to the Min42 (#29 D.Newsome)Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
99.9%
(04:35) #42 T.Weston punt 44 yards to the PUR14 fair catch by #3 X.Townsend at PUR14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:55100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
99.9%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush left for 4 yards gain to the PUR18 (#4 Z.Harden)Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush right for 1 yard gain to the PUR19 (#46 M.Carrier)Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+6
99.9%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 E.Chuba rush left for 6 yards gain to the PUR25 (#46 M.Carrier), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR26 (#49 M.Kingsbury; #11 K.Menz)Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR31 (#22 M.Smith)Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
(01:14) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR32 (#1 J.Howard; #22 M.Smith)Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
(00:30) #42 D.Drennan punt 40 yards to the Min28 fair catch by #11 J.Tracy at Min28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Min30 (#25 H.Miller; #91 A.Solecki)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:11
(03:17) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep right to #8 J.Smith caught at PUR15, for 42 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:11, 1ST DOWN #12 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup)
-12.5
TD · Q2 1:55
(01:59) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 3 yards gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab)
+11.1
TD · Q3 9:33
(09:36) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Min00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:33 #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com