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USC

USC 31 at Penn State 23

PSU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU35, for 18 yards to the PSU19 (#5 D.Dixson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−13.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:59: Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush right for 3 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:59. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC01 (#17 D.Bryant; #8 D.Stephens II)) #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick) — PSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Ryan Barker 48 Yd Field Goal — PSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:38: No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 13 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown) — USC win probability +15.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:52: #94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 14:52 — PSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 11:11: No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:11, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown) — USC win probability +21.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USC 4th & 5 at PSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26PSU 4th & 2 at USC 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16USC 4th & 8 at USC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:31PSU 4th & 13 at USC 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:42USC 4th & 10 at PSU 39, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:15PSU 4th & 11 at USC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:11USC 4th & 5 at PSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:00PSU 4th & 3 at USC 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:23PSU 4th & 8 at USC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−8.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:23USC 4th & 1 at PSU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−2.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−10.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:11PSU 4th & 1 at USC 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−3.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−15.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52PSU 4th & 5 at USC 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−13.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:44PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.6%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:44PSU 4th & 1 at USC 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−7.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−5.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:02PSU 4th & 19 at USC 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:08USC 4th & 9 at USC 8, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:37USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:26PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:36USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:59PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:38USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:11USC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2363% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
36.7%
Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #0 Z.Williams caught at USC34, for 12 yards to the USC37 (#7 Z.Tracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
36.7%
PENALTY USC False Start (#73 T.Raymond) 5 yards from USC37 to USC32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+12
36.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #0 Z.Williams caught at USC38, for 12 yards to the USC44 (#5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+14
36.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 14 yards gain to the PSU42 (#8 K.Ebel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
36.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #4 T.Mosley caught at PSU46, for 1 yard to the PSU41 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-6
36.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava sacked for loss of 6 yards to the PSU47 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+10
36.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 10 yards gain to the PSU37 (#3 J.Patton; #33 A.McPherson)Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+18
36.7%
Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU35, for 18 yards to the PSU19 (#5 D.Dixson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
36.2%
J. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 19 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1137% → 40%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.8%
#21 C.Hansen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the PSU32 (#8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+47
37.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep right to #0 C.Sowell caught at USC29, for 47 yards to the USC21 (#27 C.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
37.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC19 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-1
37.4%
Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USC20 (#7 A.Graham; #8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+7
37.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC13, for 7 yards to the USC13 (#8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+13
39.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC05, for 13 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:26, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1061% → 60%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 1 yard gain to the USC26 (#13 T.Rojas; #98 D.Vakalahi). The previous play is under automatic review - "Backwards pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
39.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC27 (#13 T.Rojas; #10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #16 T.Hines thrown to USC45Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
40.2%
#35 L.Carrigan punt 55 yards to the PSU18 #2 Z.Robinson return 12 yards to the PSU30 (#21 R.Sermons; #41 R.O'Connell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:4540% → 41%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
39.8%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
39.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #0 C.Sowell caught at PSU30, for 10 yards to the PSU42 (#8 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
40.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU45 (#8 D.Stephens II; #0 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
40.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU47 (#15 J.Walker)Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+10
40.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at USC49, for 10 yards to the USC43 (#0 J.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
40.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush left for 0 yards to the USC43 (#18 Z.Fisher)Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
40.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen sacked for loss of 10 yards to the PSU47 (#9 K.Urlacher)Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 20
OWN 47
+7
39.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #84 G.Burkle caught at PSU47, for 7 yards to the USC46 (#9 K.Urlacher), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
40.9%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 46 yards to the USC00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:5559% → 67%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
40.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC25 (#8 K.Ebel; #13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
40.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #4 T.Mosley thrown to USC50 broken up by #7 Z.TracySimilar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+14
41.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #16 T.Hines caught at USC39, for 14 yards to the USC39 (#3 J.Patton; #9 C.Brezina), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
39.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 5 yards gain to the USC44, out of bounds at USC44Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+22
39.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #0 Z.Williams caught at PSU39, for 22 yards to the PSU34 (#4 J.Cooper; #9 C.Brezina), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
39.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #1 E.Feaster caught at PSU36, for 11 yards to the PSU23 (#4 J.Cooper), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
38.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep middle to #16 T.Hines thrown to PSU02 PENALTY PSU Pass Interference (#0 J.Joseph) 15 yards from PSU23 to PSU08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
38.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 3 yards loss to the PSU11 fumbled by #8 K.Miller at PSU15 recovered by USC #8 K.Miller at PSU14 (#7 Z.Tracy; #19 Y.Kemajou)Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
33.5%
J. Maiava pass to T. Hines for 11 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3736% → 47%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU29 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
35.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Peoples thrown to PSU35Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
35.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea thrown to PSU45 broken up by #2 E.Hill IV PENALTY USC Pass Interference (#2 E.Hill IV) 15 yards from PSU29 to PSU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
36.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep right to #0 C.Sowell caught at USC23, for 37 yards to the USC19, out of bounds at USC19, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
38.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USC11 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+8
38.1%
Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USC03 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #6 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.1%
Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 0 yards to the USC03 (#18 Z.Fisher)Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.0%
Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush right for 3 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:59. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC01 (#17 D.Bryant; #8 D.Stephens II)) #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:1458% → 58%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
41.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #27 R.Wormley thrown to USC25 broken up by #19 Y.KemajouSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
42.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep left to #16 T.Hines thrown to PSU39. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+13
43.1%
Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC32, for 13 yards to the USC44 (#0 J.Joseph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
40.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #16 T.Hines caught at PSU40, for 17 yards to the PSU39 (#0 J.Joseph), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
40.1%
Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush left for 0 yards to the PSU39 (#13 T.Rojas; #98 D.Vakalahi)Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
40.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep left to #4 T.Mosley thrown to PSU09 QB hurried by #19 Y.KemajouSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
40.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #4 T.Mosley thrown to PSU15Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+56
42.2%
#48 R.Sayeri field goal attempt from 56 yards NO GOOD (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown), clock 07:42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2746% → 45%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
46.2%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #84 G.Burkle caught at PSU38, for 13 yards to the USC48 (#0 J.Williams; #17 D.Bryant), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
47.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USC49 (#94 L.Wafle; #1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Peoples thrown to USC46Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
45.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea thrown to USC44 broken up by #26 E.NewbySimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
44.5%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 39 yards to the USC10 fair catch by #4 T.Mosley at USC10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:0458% → 62%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
42.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC12 (#17 J.Zayas)Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+20
42.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC16, for 20 yards to the USC32 (#2 A.Collins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
41.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC35 (#92 S.Taupaki)Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
41.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Miller thrown to PSU42Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+40
42.0%
Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #16 T.Hines caught at PSU25, for 40 yards to the PSU25, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
38.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt thrown to PSU04Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
38.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU25 fumbled by #8 K.Miller at PSU25 forced by #13 T.Rojas recovered by USC #51 V.Dyakonov at PSU25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+5
39.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU20 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
37.9%
#45 C.Chittenden field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown), clock 02:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 2:1140% → 52%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush right for 2 yards gain to the PSU27 (#4 J.Stewart; #17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
37.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU31, for 8 yards to the PSU35 (#94 L.Wafle), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
38.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #2 Z.Robinson caught at USC48, for 18 yards to the USC47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
41.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #0 C.Sowell caught at USC46, for 1 yard to the USC46, out of bounds at USC46Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
41.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+4
40.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC41, for 4 yards to the USC40 (#26 E.Newby)Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+10
39.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush right for 10 yards gain to the USC30, out of bounds at USC30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+48
51.9%
Ryan Barker 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3751% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.2%
No Huddle #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 0 yards to the USC47 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
50.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at USC33, for 14 yards to the USC33 (#6 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
52.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC28 (#6 C.Pierce; #17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+10
52.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #21 C.Hansen caught at USC33, for 10 yards to the USC18 (#94 L.Wafle), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
52.0%
Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Sowell thrown to USC03 broken up by #17 D.BryantSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
52.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC16 (#6 C.Pierce; #45 J.Winfield)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
50.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea thrown to USC13Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+35
55.1%
#94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 11:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4547% → 67%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
53.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC40, for 20 yards to the USC45 (#4 J.Cooper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
50.3%
Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC48 (#91 A.Nnodim)Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
50.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Mosley rush right for 9 yards gain to the PSU43 (#1 I.Ezeogu; #13 T.Rojas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
49.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 13 yards gain to the PSU30 (#5 D.Dixson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
48.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 8 yards gain to the PSU22 (#13 T.Rojas; #19 Y.Kemajou)Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
47.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU22 (#92 S.Taupaki)Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
49.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush left for 1 yard gain to the PSU21 (#3 J.Patton; #8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
51.0%
Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU19 (#92 S.Taupaki), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
47.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at PSU14, for 6 yards to the PSU13 (#7 Z.Tracy)Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
32.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 13 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:4639% → 48%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU28 (#8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
39.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #21 C.Hansen thrown to PSU33Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+21
38.0%
Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU40, for 21 yards to the PSU49 (#9 K.Urlacher; #25 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
42.4%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #84 G.Burkle caught at PSU49, for 9 yards to the USC42 (#8 D.Stephens II; #27 C.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+20
43.1%
Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC35, for 20 yards to the USC22 (#14 T.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
45.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at USC26, for 6 yards to the USC16 (#16 P.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
45.1%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to USC03 broken up by #16 P.BrownSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
42.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC13 (#4 J.Stewart). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC12 (#17 D.Bryant; #4 J.Stewart), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+1
40.6%
#3 R.Becht rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC12 (#8 D.Stephens II; #99 J.Jarrett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
45.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 0 yards to the USC12 (#94 L.Wafle; #4 J.Stewart)Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
45.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC07, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
41.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to USC00 QB hurried by #1 K.Crawford and #4 J.StewartSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+26
47.5%
#94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 14:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:3658% → 86%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
42.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC33, for 5 yards to the USC34 (#17 J.Zayas)Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+12
40.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #84 T.Ashcraft caught at USC45, for 12 yards to the USC46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
39.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 6 yards gain to the PSU48 (#98 D.Vakalahi)Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
37.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #1 E.Feaster thrown to PSU44 broken up by #2 A.CollinsSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+6
39.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at PSU42, for 6 yards to the PSU42 (#17 J.Zayas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
38.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #0 Z.Williams caught at PSU31, for 11 yards to the PSU31 QB hurried by #17 J.Zayas, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
36.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #4 T.Mosley caught at PSU10, for 21 yards to the PSU10, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
36.0%
Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #0 Z.Williams thrown to PSU03Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
36.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #16 T.Hines thrown to PSU02 broken up by #5 D.DixsonSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
14.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:11, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
14 plays · 17 yds · 5:0921% → 13%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
20.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU40 (#7 A.Graham)Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
23.0%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep right to #4 B.Eskildsen thrown to USC29 broken up by #0 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
21.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU42 (#7 A.Graham)Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
18.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU45, for 5 yards to the PSU47 (#17 D.Bryant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
21.9%
#21 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU50 (#8 D.Stephens II; #7 A.Graham)Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 7
50
+4
22.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #18 B.Brahmer caught at PSU47, for 4 yards to the USC46 (#10 B.Shelby)Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
22.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC44 (#17 D.Bryant; #18 Z.Fisher). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC43 (#17 D.Bryant; #18 Z.Fisher), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+5
21.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC39 (#91 A.VanSumeren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
23.2%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Sowell thrown to USC27Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
22.9%
Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #87 A.Rappleyea thrown to USC39Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-9
21.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 9 yards to the USC48 (#94 L.Wafle) PENALTY PSU Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
13.3%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 41 yards to the USC07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5490% → 90%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
10.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC09 (#10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+4
10.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC13 (#10 C.Bacon; #98 D.Vakalahi)Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
10.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #4 T.Mosley thrown to USC32Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+5
9.9%
#35 L.Carrigan punt 52 yards to the PSU35 PENALTY USC Illegal Formation 5 yards from USC13 to USC08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 9
OWN 8
-2
9.8%
#35 L.Carrigan punt 50 yards to the PSU42 #2 Z.Robinson return for loss of 2 yards to the PSU40 (#21 R.Sermons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
9.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at USC41, for 25 yards to the USC35 QB hurried by #1 K.Crawford fumbled by #4 B.Eskildsen at USC39 forced by #6 C.Pierce recovered by USC #27 C.Johnson at USC35, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18END OF GAME
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5093% → 97%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
7.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 11 yards gain to the USC46 (#3 J.Patton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
6.7%
Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 16 yards gain to the PSU38 (#3 J.Patton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
6.3%
Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU34 (#8 K.Ebel; #99 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
3.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU31 (#33 A.McPherson; #7 Z.Tracy)Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
2.4%
PENALTY PSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from PSU31 to PSU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
2.4%
Kneel down by #14 J.Maiava at PSU28 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-1
2.6%
Kneel down by #14 J.Maiava at PSU29 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:11
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at PSU00, for 10 yards to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:11, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)
-21.5
TD · Q3 5:38
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 13 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)
-15.1
FG · Q2 0:00
Ryan Barker 48 Yd Field Goal
+13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com