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ILL

Illinois 38 at Michigan State 37

MSU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.6MSU 15.3%#37 E.Moczulski field goal attemptfrom 38 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS:#44 P.Mahoney III), clock 08:48AWAY 23 - HOME 7 · Q3 8:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:48 · #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 08:48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 97Home team on offense−24.3Score differential−10.8Garbage-time factor−6.7Pregame prior−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:30: #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:30, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky) — MSU win probability +26.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:14: Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at MSU05, for 14 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:14, 1ST DOWN #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed PENALTY #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#21 N.Martinez) 1 yard from MSU03 to MSU02. NO PLAY #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#21 N.Martinez) 2 yards from MSU03 to MSU01. NO PLAY #21 A.Laughery rush attempt Successful — ILL win probability +19.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:47: Fredrick Moore 24 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Liam Boyd Kick) — MSU win probability +21.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:17: Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17 #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky) — MSU win probability +45.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU13, for 25 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +36.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:46ILL 4th & 7 at MSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12ILL 4th & 2 at MSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:15MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00ILL 4th & 8 at MSU 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:48ILL 4th & 3 at MSU 20, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−9.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:52MSU 4th & 7 at ILL 24, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:14MSU 4th & 7 at ILL 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:27ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.7%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:20ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−11.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:21ILL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:57ILL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:29MSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:30MSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:14ILL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    83.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:47MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:1458% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.9%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL30, for 6 yards to the ILL31 (#4 C.Brantley), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
41.9%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ILL37 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
41.9%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU38, for 39 yards to the MSU24 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
41.9%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU23 (#5 J.Hall; #55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
41.9%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU21 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
41.9%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep left to #10 T.Robinson thrown to MSU00 QB hurried by #1 K.Soares, Jr.Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+40
42.6%
#37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 11:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3443% → 43%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.7%
#11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 5 yards to the MSU20 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
42.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU25, for 6 yards to the MSU26 (#26 I.Kante; #1 X.Scott)Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
42.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #17 B.Collier thrown to MSU36Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
42.7%
#9 R.Dakin punt 74 yards to the ILL00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:5157% → 61%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
43.0%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to ILL35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#3 T.Bell) 13 yards from ILL20 to ILL33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
42.8%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #21 A.Laughery caught at ILL28, for 11 yards to the ILL44 (#4 C.Brantley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
42.6%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL48 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.; #3 T.Bell)Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+8
42.6%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #83 K.Feagin caught at ILL50, for 8 yards to the MSU44 (#18 D.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
42.5%
#21 A.Laughery rush left for 0 yards to the MSU44 (#4 C.Brantley; #5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
42.5%
#4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #83 K.Feagin caught at MSU45, for 3 yards to the MSU41 (#5 J.Hall; #11 A.Lafaele)Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
42.6%
Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU36 (#18 D.Crawford; #1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
42.8%
#4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #21 A.Laughery caught at MSU37, for 3 yards to the MSU33 (#12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
42.3%
Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MSU35 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.; #55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+27
42.4%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #11 B.Trimble caught at MSU16, for 27 yards to the MSU08 (#21 N.Martinez; #45 B.Pretzlaff), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
42.8%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU05 (#18 D.Crawford; #12 C.Stodghill)Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.6%
#4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #21 A.Laughery caught at MSU05, for 5 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:21 #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0639% → 39%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.4%
#4 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU25 (#54 D.John; #10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at MSU34, for 9 yards to the MSU34, out of bounds at MSU34Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
39.6%
#4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MSU32 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
38.7%
#9 R.Dakin punt 55 yards to the ILL13 fair catch by #0 M.Resetich at ILL13 PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from ILL13 to ILL18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 7:1855% → 64%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
45.5%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #10 T.Robinson thrown to ILL16Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
45.5%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL23, for 5 yards to the ILL23 (#4 C.Brantley; #21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+8
45.6%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL31, for 8 yards to the ILL31 (#7 M.Richard; #11 A.Lafaele), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
45.2%
Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush right for 15 yards gain to the ILL46 (#2 D.Vaught), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
44.6%
Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU47 (#12 C.Stodghill; #21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
44.0%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
44.1%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep right to #13 H.Clement thrown to MSU01Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
44.2%
Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU36 (#12 C.Stodghill)Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+11
47.0%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush right for 11 yards gain to the MSU25 (#21 N.Martinez; #12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
46.2%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #83 K.Feagin caught at MSU15, for 12 yards to the MSU13 (#21 N.Martinez; #4 C.Brantley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
46.2%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU09 (#96 E.Coenen; #98 D.Simmons)Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
46.2%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU06, for 5 yards to the MSU04 (#3 T.Bell)Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
46.4%
No Huddle #4 K.Houser rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU02 (#9 K.Thompson; #10 D.Malone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.0%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:57 #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2833% → 41%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.5%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU28 (#43 J.Barna)Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
32.4%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU37 (#10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
33.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #19 C.Taplin thrown to ILL30Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
32.6%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU42, for 16 yards to the ILL47 (#1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
34.2%
Shotgun #32 K.Williams rush right for 2 yards gain to the ILL45 (#18 M.Muragin)Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+15
34.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at ILL32, for 15 yards to the ILL30 (#16 T.Heckel; #0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
34.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 J.Patterson caught at ILL26, for 13 yards to the ILL17 (#10 J.Kreutz; #26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
35.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Gulker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL14 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
35.0%
#4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL09 (#0 M.Resetich; #33 G.Beerman)Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+3
34.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL06 (#40 E.Rhea), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
41.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 J.Patterson caught at ILL06, for 6 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:29 #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7FG
19 plays · 58 yds · 3:2960% → 79%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
40.1%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #11 B.Trimble caught at ILL25, for 16 yards to the ILL41 (#12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
39.0%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL42 (#18 D.Crawford; #55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
35.7%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL38, for 5 yards to the ILL47, out of bounds at ILL47Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
35.4%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #10 T.Robinson caught at MSU48, for 5 yards to the MSU48 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
34.7%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #11 B.Trimble caught at MSU44, for 7 yards to the MSU41 (#12 C.Stodghill), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
33.7%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU37, for 6 yards to the MSU35 (#3 T.Bell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
33.8%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU26 fumbled by #21 A.Laughery at MSU25 forced by #21 N.Martinez recovered by ILL #59 J.Renfro at MSU26, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+7
32.9%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #80 E.Kasper caught at MSU27, for 7 yards to the MSU19 (#7 M.Richard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
31.6%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #21 A.Laughery thrown to MSU00Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
32.4%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU17 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
31.5%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #13 H.Clement thrown to MSU05 QB hurried by #11 A.Lafaele and #18 D.CrawfordSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
20.8%
Ethan Moczulski 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5629% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
28.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU18, for 14 yards to the MSU39 (#26 I.Kante; #16 T.Heckel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
29.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU36, for 2 yards to the MSU41 (#52 P.Farrell)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
29.6%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU44 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+12
29.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at ILL46, for 12 yards to the ILL44 (#10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
30.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 J.Patterson caught at ILL41, for 5 yards to the ILL39 (#5 J.Morris; #10 J.Kreutz) PENALTY MSU Holding (#75 B.Murawski) 10 yards from ILL44 to MSU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+4
27.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #82 B.Parachek caught at MSU47, for 4 yards to the MSU50 fumbled by #82 B.Parachek at MSU48 forced by #6 J.Clarke recovered by ILL #4 D.Brown at MSU50, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1678% → 85%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
50
+5
21.6%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at MSU45, for 5 yards to the MSU45, out of bounds at MSU45Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
21.6%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU40 (#12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
21.6%
Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU38 (#12 C.Stodghill; #10 D.Malone)Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+11
21.7%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at MSU33, for 11 yards to the MSU27 (#24 J.Favorite; #12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
21.1%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #21 A.Laughery thrown to MSU15 QB hurried by #98 D.Simmons and #7 M.RichardSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
21.4%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 7 yards gain to the MSU20 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
19.9%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to MSU13 broken up by #24 J.FavoriteSimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
15.3%
#37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 08:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:5218% → 20%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
18.1%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU14 (#96 D.Prater; #24 W.Holmes)Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+12
18.0%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU23, for 12 yards to the MSU26 (#26 I.Kante; #10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+36
18.4%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 36 yards gain to the ILL38 (#10 J.Kreutz; #5 J.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
20.6%
#4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL35 (#24 W.Holmes)Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
21.4%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at ILL34, for 2 yards to the ILL33 (#6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
20.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #21 M.Parrish caught at ILL36, for 6 yards to the ILL27 (#10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
21.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at ILL28, for 4 yards to the ILL23 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
21.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Gulker rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL19 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
21.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #31 J.Savoury thrown to ILL10Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+5
20.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at ILL16, for 13 yards to the ILL06 (#16 T.Heckel) PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation (#6 F.Moore) 5 yards from ILL19 to ILL24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
20.2%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 02:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1185% → 86%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to ILL36 QB hurried by #55 B.RobertsSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.9%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL30 (#9 K.Thompson; #4 C.Brantley)Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-37
14.0%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass intercepted by #2 D.Vaught at ILL48 QB hurried by #52 M.Beeler #2 D.Vaught return 37 yards to the ILL11 (#4 K.Houser)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
40.0%
#4 J.Patterson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:30, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1672% → 95%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.3%
Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL25 (#55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
29.4%
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL33, for 14 yards to the ILL39 (#4 C.Brantley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
25.6%
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass incomplete short right to #83 K.Feagin thrown to ILL35 broken up by #7 M.RichardSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+24
26.9%
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL45, for 24 yards to the MSU37 (#21 N.Martinez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
24.6%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU35 (#24 J.Favorite)Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+7
24.2%
Shotgun #2 C.Boyd rush left for 7 yards gain to the MSU28 (#2 D.Vaught), out of bounds PENALTY MSU Face Mask (#24 J.Favorite) 14 yards from MSU28 to MSU14, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
4.9%
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at MSU05, for 14 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:14, 1ST DOWN #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed PENALTY #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#21 N.Martinez) 1 yard from MSU03 to MSU02. NO PLAY #7 M.Clayton II pass attempt failed PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#21 N.Martinez) 2 yards from MSU03 to MSU01. NO PLAY #21 A.Laughery rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:278% → 30%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
7.8%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU32 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
8.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU34, for 4 yards to the MSU36 (#10 J.Kreutz; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+7
7.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU40, for 7 yards to the MSU43, out of bounds at MSU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
8.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 J.Patterson caught at MSU47, for 7 yards to the MSU50 (#7 M.Bailey), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 3
50
+5
9.1%
Shotgun #13 C.McCray rush right for 5 yards gain to the ILL45 (#7 M.Bailey; #54 D.John), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
9.1%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL40 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
9.3%
#4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL37 (#43 J.Barna)Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
8.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #13 C.McCray thrown to ILL20 QB hurried by #43 J.Barna and #90 C.JankiSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+5
8.4%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#75 B.Murawski) 5 yards from ILL37 to ILL42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+18
8.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at ILL29, for 18 yards to the ILL24 (#5 J.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
30.2%
Fredrick Moore 24 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Liam Boyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 4:1482% → 91%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
18.0%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 6 yards gain to the ILL19 (#7 M.Richard)Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+3
17.9%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL22 (#55 B.Roberts; #1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
17.9%
Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL24 (#21 N.Martinez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
17.1%
Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush right for 2 yards gain to the ILL26 (#29 K.Deriso; #12 C.Stodghill)Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
17.0%
Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL28 (#55 B.Roberts; #10 D.Malone)Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
9.2%
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short right to #21 A.Laughery caught at ILL31, for 5 yards to the ILL33 (#29 K.Deriso)Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
8.8%
#7 M.Clayton II rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL33 (#10 D.Malone; #55 B.Roberts), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1037% → 70%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
36.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush right for 3 yards gain to the ILL30 (#16 T.Heckel), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
37.1%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush right for 3 yards gain to the ILL27 (#10 J.Kreutz; #18 M.Muragin)Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+19
25.8%
Shotgun #12 C.Gulker pass complete short right to #14 B.Williams caught at ILL19, for 27 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:08, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Illegal Block in Back (#6 F.Moore) 10 yards from ILL08 to ILL18Similar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
28.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at ILL20, for 5 yards to the ILL13 (#16 T.Heckel; #7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+11
25.0%
#3 R.Bullard Jr. rush left for 11 yards gain to the ILL02 fumbled by #3 R.Bullard Jr. at ILL03 forced by #43 J.Barna recovered by MSU #31 J.Savoury at ILL02, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.3%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17 #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5745% → 37%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.9%
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short middle to #11 B.Trimble caught at ILL31, for 6 yards to the ILL31 (#7 M.Richard; #21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
53.2%
PENALTY ILL False Start (#71 N.Knapik) 5 yards from ILL31 to ILL26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
55.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL27 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
56.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Trimble thrown to ILL42Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
62.9%
#81 L.Rau punt 44 yards to the MSU29 #13 C.McCray return 5 yards to the MSU34 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
57.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MSU33 (#4 D.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
20.8%
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU13, for 25 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0042% → 48%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
42.1%
#13 C.McCray rush left for 10 yards gain to the ILL15 (#16 T.Heckel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
42.1%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at ILL17, for 0 yards to the ILL15 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
42.1%
#4 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL11 (#26 I.Kante; #10 J.Kreutz)Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+10
38.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at ILL08, for 10 yards to the ILL01 (#0 M.Resetich; #1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.8%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00 #11 A.Milivojevic pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-47.8
TD · Q4 1:17
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17 #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)
+45.3
TD · OT 0:00
Shotgun #7 M.Clayton II pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at MSU13, for 25 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:00, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
-36.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com