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MSU

Michigan State 3 at Wisconsin 31

WIS
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:04 · (11:07) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher pass incomplete short left to #13 C.McCray thrown to WIS20 broken up by #44 C.Catalano, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense+5.4Pregame prior+15.2Score differential+1.8Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:01: (01:06) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #89 J.Harris caught at MSU01, for 15 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:01, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe) — WIS win probability +4.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:56: (03:58) #97 G.Lahm field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe), clock 03:56 — WIS win probability +4.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:12: Timeout Wisconsin, clock 00:12 — WIS win probability +4.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:09: (00:11) #37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 00:09 — MSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:35: (10:42) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 47 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:35, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe) — WIS win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 5:39MSU 4th & 1 at WIS 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−0.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:17MSU 4th & 7 at WIS 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:04MSU 4th & 2 at WIS 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−4.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:02WIS 4th & 1 at MSU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−2.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:56WIS 4th & 4 at MSU 12, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:18MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:03WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09MSU 4th & 1 at WIS 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:03MSU 4th & 1 at WIS 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−3.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:32MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:04WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:21MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:11WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:10MSU 4th & 7 at WIS 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:12WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:38MSU 4th & 4 at WIS 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:29WIS 4th & 1 at MSU 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:25MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:53WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 39, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:16WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:01WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:35WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:56WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3872% → 73%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 2 yards loss to the WIS23 (#96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
72.0%
(14:30) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 10 yards gain to the WIS33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
71.9%
(13:53) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WIS41 (#45 B.Pretzlaff), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
71.9%
(13:16) Shotgun #0 T.Henry rush right for 2 yards gain to the WIS43 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
71.9%
(12:38) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #6 D.Dupree caught at WIS40, for 2 yards to the WIS45 (#44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+8
71.7%
(11:57) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU47 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
71.8%
(11:18) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush right for 13 yards gain to the MSU34, out of bounds at MSU34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.9%
(10:54) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. thrown to MSU26Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
71.9%
(10:53) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush left for 4 yards gain to the MSU30 (#9 K.Thompson; #45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+7
71.7%
(10:15) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU23 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
71.9%
(09:39) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU22 (#55 B.Roberts; #44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
71.7%
(09:01) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU20 (#55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
73.4%
(08:21) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete deep left to #89 J.Harris caught at MSU00, for 20 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:16, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:4627% → 27%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
73.0%
(08:09) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU27 (#29 M.Jung). #58 C.Moore injured on the playSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+9
72.8%
(07:49) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU36 (#44 C.Catalano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
72.8%
(07:22) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 F.Moore thrown to MSU44 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (#2 J.Robinson) 9 yards from MSU36 to MSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
72.6%
(07:19) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU46 (#7 T.Fearbry; #97 J.Poyser)Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
72.7%
(06:53) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WIS46 (#76 D.Johnson)Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
72.4%
(06:27) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS46 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
72.8%
(05:49) #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS43 (#44 C.Catalano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
72.4%
(05:15) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at WIS43, for 3 yards to the WIS40 (#5 B.West)Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
72.5%
(04:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS38 (#44 C.Catalano; #5 B.West)Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-3
72.6%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 3 yards to the WIS41 (#30 C.Perkins)Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
73.3%
(03:21) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #6 F.Moore thrown to WIS12 broken up by #2 J.Robinson, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:0874% → 79%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.3%
(03:16) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #6 D.Dupree thrown to WIS44 QB hurried by #13 I.SmithSimilar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+26
74.1%
(03:08) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush left for 26 yards gain to the MSU33 (#2 D.Vaught), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
74.4%
(02:24) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush right for 14 yards gain to the MSU19 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
74.5%
(01:45) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU15 (#4 C.Brantley)Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
78.6%
(01:06) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #89 J.Harris caught at MSU01, for 15 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:01, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4DOWNS
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:5223% → 23%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.9%
(01:01) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU30 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
76.7%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU39, for 11 yards to the MSU41 (#5 B.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
76.7%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU45, for 4 yards to the MSU45, out of bounds at MSU45Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
76.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU46 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
76.4%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU48, for 6 yards to the WIS48 (#6 J.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
76.2%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS45 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
76.5%
(13:39) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush right for 2 yards gain to the WIS43 (#5 B.West)Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+11
76.8%
(13:17) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #8 K.Smith caught at WIS34, for 11 yards to the WIS32 (#2 J.Robinson; #29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
76.0%
(12:41) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS29 (#29 M.Jung)Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
75.9%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush right for 2 yards gain to the WIS27 (#2 J.Robinson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
76.4%
(11:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS24 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 2
OPP 24
0
76.9%
(11:07) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher pass incomplete short left to #13 C.McCray thrown to WIS20 broken up by #44 C.Catalano, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 7:0380% → 86%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
79.5%
(11:04) Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WIS32 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+3
80.1%
(10:23) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #82 E.Bork caught at WIS35, for 3 yards to the WIS35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.0%
(09:43) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #21 B.Jackson thrown to WIS34Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
79.9%
(09:39) Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS37 (#11 A.Lafaele)Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
80.0%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #0 T.Henry caught at WIS46, for 9 yards to the WIS46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
81.3%
(08:33) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS48 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
80.7%
(07:56) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short middle to #0 T.Henry thrown to WIS49Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+7
80.1%
(07:48) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU45 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
79.9%
(07:08) #21 B.Jackson rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU44 (#45 B.Pretzlaff; #18 D.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
81.4%
(06:27) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU41 (#4 C.Brantley; #1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
81.2%
(06:01) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short middle to #21 B.Jackson thrown to MSU37 broken up by #44 C.WheatlandSimilar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+23
80.8%
(06:00) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short middle to #0 T.Henry caught at MSU27, for 23 yards to the MSU18 (#3 T.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
81.6%
(05:19) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU11 (#21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 3
OPP 11
-1
81.8%
(04:42) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU12 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
81.5%
(04:02) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #4 M.Coleman thrown to MSU12 broken up by #1 K.Soares, Jr.Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
86.1%
(03:58) #97 G.Lahm field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe), clock 03:56Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3315% → 14%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.8%
(03:55) #21 M.Parrish rush right for 6 yards gain to the MSU31 (#93 D.Cooper)Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
84.2%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU36, for 5 yards to the MSU36 (#28 J.Kamara), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.5%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU38 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
84.7%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 F.Moore thrown to MSU32 broken up by #15 S.CheeksSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
85.0%
(02:32) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 F.Moore thrown to MSU50Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
85.9%
(02:28) #9 R.Dakin punt 62 yards to the WIS00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:1287% → 88%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.8%
(02:18) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS22 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
87.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #2 C.Brooks Jr. caught at WIS32, for 10 yards to the WIS32, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.3%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #84 R.Schwendeman thrown to WIS32 broken up by #96 E.Coenen QB hurried by #96 E.CoenenSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
87.2%
(01:37) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS36 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+5
87.2%
(01:19) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WIS41 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+5
88.1%
PENALTY WIS False Start (#55 K.Heywood) 5 yards from WIS41 to WIS36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
88.1%
(01:11) #91 S.West punt 28 yards to the MSU36, out of bounds at MSU36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 0:5314% → 18%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
85.7%
(01:02) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU42, for 6 yards to the MSU42 (#44 C.Catalano) PENALTY WIS Personal Foul (#15 S.Cheeks) 15 yards from MSU42 to WIS43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.4%
(00:57) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #31 J.Savoury thrown to WIS40 QB hurried by #2 J.RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
85.2%
(00:54) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at WIS41, for 6 yards to the WIS37 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
84.3%
(00:48) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 F.Moore thrown to WIS31 broken up by #1 E.Fletcher Jr.Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+15
85.0%
(00:45) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to WIS37 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (#2 J.Robinson) 15 yards from WIS37 to WIS22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
83.5%
(00:39) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at WIS20, for 9 yards to the WIS13 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
83.2%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #6 F.Moore thrown to WIS00 broken up by #6 J.ScottSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
84.0%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Patterson thrown to WIS13 QB hurried by #91 H.Russell IVSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+31
82.3%
(00:11) #37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 00:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.7%
(00:09) Wisconsin rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WIS24, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4416% → 15%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
84.2%
(14:53) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU35 (#44 C.Catalano; #91 H.Russell IV)Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
84.4%
(14:24) #2 C.Fancher pass complete short left to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU37, for 5 yards to the MSU40 (#2 J.Robinson)Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
84.2%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU45 (#29 M.Jung; #44 C.Catalano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
84.0%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU48, End Of Play. #2 C.Fancher injured on the playSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
83.8%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU49 (#97 J.Poyser)Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
84.5%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #21 M.Parrish caught at WIS46, for 5 yards to the WIS46 (#2 J.Robinson)Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
84.6%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS46 (#8 M.Posa), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:2287% → 95%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
87.4%
(12:02) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush left for 2 yards gain to the WIS48 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
87.6%
(11:17) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU47 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+47
95.3%
(10:42) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 47 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:35, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 1:365% → 5%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
94.6%
(10:26) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #88 K.Rios caught at MSU32, for 5 yards to the MSU32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
94.5%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU36 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
94.9%
(09:34) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU39 (#15 S.Cheeks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
95.0%
(08:52) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 F.Moore thrown to WIS42Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
95.1%
(08:48) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #82 B.Parachek thrown to MSU42 QB hurried by #29 M.JungSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
95.3%
(08:42) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right thrown to MSU39 QB hurried by #8 M.PosaSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+5
95.4%
(08:37) PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from MSU39 to MSU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
95.5%
(08:37) punt 51 yards to the WIS15 fair catch by #0 T.Henry at WIS15 PENALTY WIS Holding 7 yards from WIS15 to WIS08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2396% → 96%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
95.5%
(08:32) Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS12 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+1
95.5%
(07:58) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush left for 1 yard gain to the WIS13 (#4 C.Brantley)Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
95.7%
(07:20) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short middle to #0 T.Henry thrown to WIS17 broken up by #18 D.CrawfordSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+11
95.5%
(07:16) #91 S.West punt 54 yards to the MSU33 #13 C.McCray return 11 yards to the MSU44 (#56 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:375% → 4%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.5%
(07:03) #21 M.Parrish rush left for 0 yards to the MSU44 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
95.6%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #88 K.Rios thrown to MSU49Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
95.7%
(06:34) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #31 J.Savoury thrown to MSU50Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
95.9%
(06:29) #9 R.Dakin punt 56 yards to the WIS00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0696% → 96%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.0%
(06:20) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #82 E.Bork thrown to WIS15 QB hurried by #1 K.Soares, Jr.Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
96.0%
(06:16) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush left for 4 yards gain to the WIS24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+17
96.2%
(05:38) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at WIS26, for 17 yards to the WIS41 (#24 J.Favorite), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
96.5%
(04:57) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS43 (#21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
95.9%
(04:27) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Brooks Jr. thrown to WIS45Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
95.9%
(04:23) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Brooks Jr. thrown to MSU39Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
95.6%
(04:19) #91 S.West punt 42 yards to the MSU15 fair catch by #13 C.McCray at MSU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:573% → 3%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
96.8%
(04:10) Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU16 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+15
96.9%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #4 J.Patterson thrown to MSU20 PENALTY WIS Roughing The Passer (#95 J.Anderson) 15 yards from MSU16 to MSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
96.7%
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU37 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+8
96.8%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU40, for 8 yards to the MSU45 (#4 M.Burks Jr.; #44 C.Catalano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
96.8%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at WIS45, for 13 yards to the WIS42 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
97.1%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS39 (#29 M.Jung)Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
97.2%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS39 (#8 M.Posa; #92 N.Vils). #52 N.Sharpe injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
97.5%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #13 C.McCray thrown to WIS36 QB hurried by #15 S.CheeksSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
97.5%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #6 F.Moore thrown to WIS36 broken up by #97 J.Poyser, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5398% → 98%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.0%
(01:08) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS40 (#3 T.Bell)Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
98.1%
(00:30) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS43 (#2 D.Vaught), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
98.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WIS48 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
98.2%
(14:20) #91 S.West punt 33 yards to the MSU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:292% → 1%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
98.4%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU21 (#28 J.Kamara)Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+9
98.5%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU30 (#11 C.Van Dinter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.5%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU39 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
98.5%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush left for 2 yards gain to the MSU41 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.6%
(12:13) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU46, for 5 yards to the MSU46 (#2 J.Robinson)Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
98.6%
(11:47) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS49 (#7 T.Fearbry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
98.6%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #7 B.Tullis caught at WIS46, for 6 yards to the WIS43 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
98.6%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #6 F.Moore thrown to WIS43 broken up by #7 T.FearbrySimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
98.7%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left thrown to WIS34 QB hurried by #15 S.CheeksSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
98.7%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #13 C.McCray thrown to WIS39 broken up by #5 B.West, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:3599% → 100%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.7%
(10:36) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush left for 0 yards to the WIS43 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
98.8%
(09:59) Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WIS46 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+6
98.8%
(09:24) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
98.8%
(08:38) #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU46 (#9 K.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
99.9%
(08:02) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete deep middle to #4 M.Coleman caught at MSU00, for 46 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:56, 1ST DOWN PENALTY MSU Offside declined #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe) PENALTY #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe) PENALTY MSU Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:190% → 0%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU21 (#19 T.Heiberger)Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU25 (#95 J.Anderson)Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU26 (#21 C.Skanes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 K.Coffman rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSU33, out of bounds at MSU33Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU36 (#51 M.Garner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU39 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
99.9%
(04:55) Shotgun #10 K.Coffman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-9
99.9%
(04:11) Shotgun #10 K.Coffman sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MSU31 (#19 T.Heiberger)Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+12
100.0%
(03:34) #9 R.Dakin punt 49 yards to the WIS20 #0 T.Henry return 12 yards to the WIS32 (#32 E.Young)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
(03:24) Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS34 (#52 M.Beeler)Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
(02:44) Shotgun #10 R.Hopkins rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS37, out of bounds at WIS37Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
(02:11) Shotgun #21 B.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS39 (#16 A.Shaw)Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
(02:00) #91 S.West punt 34 yards to the MSU27, out of bounds at MSU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22Uncategorized
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU29 (#14 L.Danitz)Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
100.0%
(01:04) Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU33 (#92 N.Vils)Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-2
100.0%
(00:22) Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MSU31 (#59 A.Witt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:35
(10:42) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 47 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:35, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe)
+7.7
FG · Q2 0:09
(00:11) #37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 00:09
-6.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:12
Timeout Wisconsin, clock 00:12
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com