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PSU

Penn State 13 at Northwestern 34

NU
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2026 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:55 · (07:01) #38 N.Tiyce punt 37 yards to the NU06 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU06 PENALTY PSU Kick Catch Interference (#2 A.Collins) 15 yards from NU06 to NU21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+17.1Score differential+6.7Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0Pregame prior+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:09: (10:09) #90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 10:09 — PSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:39: C. Hansen run for 8 yds, for a TD (R. Barker KICK) (J. Kleather KICK) — PSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:21: Joseph Himon II 38 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick) — NU win probability +5.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:55: J. Himon II run for 11 yds, for a TD (J. Kleather KICK) #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick) — PSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:53: Chase Sowell 16 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — PSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:09NU 4th & 15 at PSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:36PSU 4th & 5 at NU 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:00PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 44, down 10
    Close callPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:46NU 4th & 9 at NU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:11PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:51PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 27, down 16
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:28NU 4th & 1 at NU 42, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:56PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 17, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:16PSU 4th & 5 at NU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−2.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−6.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:25PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:46NU 4th & 1 at PSU 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−2.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−10.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:55PSU 4th & 10 at NU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:45NU 4th & 11 at PSU 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:43PSU 4th & 3 at NU 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:17NU 4th & 1 at PSU 19, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 10:39PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:21NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:53PSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:3852% → 53%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.0%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU25, for 6 yards to the NU31 (#3 J.Patton)Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
52.1%
(14:23) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NU38 (#19 Y.Kemajou; #92 S.Taupaki), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
52.3%
(13:51) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at NU37, for 4 yards to the NU42 (#5 D.Dixson; #8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
52.5%
(13:15) #5 C.Komolafe rush left for 8 yards gain to the NU50 (#7 Z.Tracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
50
+13
52.6%
(12:47) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 13 yards gain to the PSU37 (#3 J.Patton; #4 J.Cooper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
52.8%
(12:12) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #86 A.Honig caught at PSU36, for 5 yards to the PSU32 (#5 D.Dixson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+5
53.0%
(11:42) Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU27 (#4 J.Cooper; #8 K.Ebel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
53.1%
(11:15) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete deep right to #10 R.Ahumaraeze thrown to PSU01Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
53.1%
(11:05) #27 G.Sawchuk rush left for 4 yards gain to the PSU23 (#91 A.Nnodim; #13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-9
53.1%
(10:33) #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 9 yards to the PSU32 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+50
52.8%
(10:09) #90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 10:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:2147% → 45%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
53.2%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep right to #0 C.Sowell caught at PSU49, for 26 yards to the NU49, out of bounds at NU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
52.7%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NU44 (#15 B.Flakes; #33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
52.8%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush right for 0 yards to the NU44 (#2 K.McKinzie; #15 B.Flakes)Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
52.9%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #0 C.Sowell thrown to NU39 broken up by #29 J.Stevens Jr.Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
54.7%
(08:36) #38 N.Tiyce punt 32 yards to the NU12 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:1956% → 59%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
55.5%
(08:26) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NU13, for 14 yards to the NU26 (#13 T.Rojas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
55.9%
(07:52) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NU35 (#8 K.Ebel; #13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-2
56.2%
(07:40) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush left for 2 yards loss to the NU33 (#98 D.Vakalahi)Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+6
56.1%
(07:08) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #10 R.Ahumaraeze caught at NU35, for 6 yards to the NU39 (#17 J.Zayas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
56.9%
(06:45) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #86 A.Honig caught at NU41, for 2 yards to the NU41 (#8 K.Ebel; #3 J.Patton) PENALTY PSU Holding (#7 Z.Tracy) 10 yards from NU39 to NU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+47
57.3%
(06:34) #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 47 yards gain to the PSU04 (#2 A.Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
58.4%
(05:42) #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU02 (#13 T.Rojas; #91 A.Nnodim)Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.7%
(05:07) #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:07 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5843% → 41%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.7%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush right for 2 yards gain to the PSU27 (#29 J.Stevens Jr.)Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.8%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #87 A.Rappleyea thrown to PSU31 broken up by #15 B.FlakesSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
57.5%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU36, for 9 yards to the PSU36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
56.7%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #1 J.Peoples caught at PSU31, for 5 yards to the PSU41 (#3 B.Deasfernandes)Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-1
57.2%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PSU40 (#2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+4
58.0%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU43, for 4 yards to the PSU44 (#7 O.Adeyi), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
58.7%
(02:04) #38 N.Tiyce punt 37 yards to the NU19 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0558% → 59%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
58.3%
(01:56) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NU25 (#8 K.Ebel; #99 K.Williams)Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+16
58.7%
(01:19) #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 16 yards gain to the NU41 (#31 M.Neal; #5 D.Dixson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
59.9%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush left for 1 yard loss to the NU40 (#25 A.Tatsch; #8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+2
59.6%
(00:22) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU42 (#56 A.Carnell; #33 A.McPherson)Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
59.4%
(14:57) #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short middle to #8 H.Eligon II thrown to NU50 broken up by #13 T.RojasSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
58.6%
(14:53) #92 N.Dugandzic punt 38 yards to the PSU20 fair catch by #2 Z.Robinson at PSU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:3540% → 38%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
60.1%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep right to #4 B.Eskildsen thrown to PSU40 broken up by #7 O.Adeyi PENALTY NU Pass Interference (#7 O.Adeyi) 15 yards from PSU20 to PSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.7%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to PSU49 broken up by #6 R.Fitzgerald QB hurried by #91 C.O'RourkeSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
60.0%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU33, for 2 yards to the PSU37 (#2 K.McKinzie; #29 J.Stevens Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-7
60.8%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 7 yards to the PSU30 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
62.5%
(13:10) #38 N.Tiyce punt 46 yards to the NU24 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0660% → 61%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
60.1%
(13:06) #0 A.Chiles pass intercepted by #31 M.Neal at NU45, End Of Play PENALTY PSU Pass Interference (#31 M.Neal) 15 yards from NU24 to NU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
61.2%
(13:00) #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 5 yards loss to the NU34 fumbled by #27 G.Sawchuk at NU34 recovered by PSU #17 J.Zayas at NU34, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:1141% → 47%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
59.1%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU31 (#2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-1
58.7%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush left for 1 yard loss to the NU32 (#47 M.Kilbane) PENALTY NU Face Mask (#47 M.Kilbane) 15 yards from NU32 to NU17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
58.7%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush right for 6 yards gain to the NU11 (#2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
58.6%
(11:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU08 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
53.5%
C. Hansen run for 8 yds, for a TD (R. Barker KICK) (J. Kleather KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0256% → 64%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
55.7%
(10:30) #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 36 yards gain to the PSU39 (#3 J.Patton; #10 C.Bacon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
58.3%
(10:01) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at PSU44, for 1 yard to the PSU38 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+38
63.7%
Joseph Himon II 38 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1130% → 28%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.2%
(09:09) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU20, for 4 yards to the PSU24 (#7 O.Adeyi)Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
70.1%
(08:32) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #0 C.Sowell thrown to PSU40Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
71.4%
(08:26) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU25, for 3 yards to the PSU27 (#24 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
71.8%
(07:55) #38 N.Tiyce punt 42 yards to the NU31 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU31 PENALTY NU Holding (#49 A.Jordan) 10 yards from NU31 to NU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:1474% → 76%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
74.1%
(07:46) #27 G.Sawchuk rush right for 8 yards gain to the NU29 (#2 A.Collins; #0 J.Joseph)Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+4
75.1%
(07:14) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU33 (#9 C.Brezina), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
75.6%
(06:37) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NU36 (#33 A.McPherson)Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
76.3%
(05:55) #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NU37 (#9 C.Brezina; #19 Y.Kemajou)Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
76.4%
(05:15) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at NU40, for 5 yards to the NU42 (#4 J.Cooper; #9 C.Brezina)Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
76.4%
(04:32) #92 N.Dugandzic punt 46 yards to the PSU12 fair catch by #2 Z.Robinson at PSU12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2426% → 21%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
74.2%
(04:23) No Huddle #1 J.Peoples rush right for 5 yards gain to the PSU17 (#33 B.Brus; #6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
75.0%
(03:39) No Huddle #3 R.Becht rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU17 (#47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
75.5%
(02:57) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep middle to #0 C.Sowell thrown to PSU50 QB hurried by #16 J.LewisSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 5
OWN 17
+26
78.7%
(02:56) #38 N.Tiyce punt 34 yards to the NU49 #19 D.Wagner return 26 yards to the PSU25 (#31 M.Neal) PENALTY NU Personal Foul (#25 M.Dorsey Jr.) PSU Sideline Inteference 20 yards from PSU25 to PSU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:4381% → 84%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
81.2%
(02:45) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 24 yards gain to the PSU11 (#31 M.Neal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
83.6%
J. Himon II run for 11 yds, for a TD (J. Kleather KICK) #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 1:2821% → 22%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.1%
(01:52) No Huddle #3 R.Becht rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU26 (#54 T.Gant)Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
79.6%
(01:31) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #2 Z.Robinson caught at PSU41, for 19 yards to the PSU45 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
78.1%
(01:16) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #21 C.Hansen caught at PSU49, for 6 yards to the NU49 (#33 B.Brus; #7 O.Adeyi) PENALTY PSU Personal Foul (#78 M.Goodman) 15 yards from PSU45 to PSU30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+11
79.8%
(01:05) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #18 B.Brahmer caught at PSU41, for 11 yards to the PSU41 (#33 B.Brus; #2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+13
80.2%
(01:03) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU43, for 13 yards to the NU46 (#3 B.Deasfernandes; #7 O.Adeyi)Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
77.7%
(00:46) No Huddle #3 R.Becht rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NU44 (#33 B.Brus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
77.8%
(00:43) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #18 B.Brahmer caught at NU40, for 12 yards to the NU32 (#5 D.Kirks), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NU Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
76.9%
(00:36) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #0 C.Sowell caught at NU27, for 5 yards to the NU27 (#7 O.Adeyi), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
76.3%
(00:31) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen thrown to NU10 broken up by #4 M.Pate QB hurried by #55 D.RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
77.2%
(00:18) No Huddle #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep left to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to NU02 broken up by #7 O.AdeyiSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
78.4%
(00:20) #94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 00:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
83.9%
(00:12) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NU35 (#92 S.Taupaki; #5 D.Dixson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1818% → 17%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
82.0%
(14:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #0 C.Sowell caught at PSU29, for 13 yards to the PSU37 (#33 B.Brus; #4 M.Pate), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
81.5%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush right for 3 yards gain to the PSU40 (#24 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
81.8%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen thrown to PSU49 broken up by #7 O.AdeyiSimilar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
82.3%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea thrown to PSU48 broken up by #29 J.Stevens Jr.Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
82.8%
(13:30) #38 N.Tiyce punt 60 yards to the NU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:2983% → 88%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
83.3%
(13:20) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #86 A.Honig caught at NU23, for 13 yards to the NU33 (#4 J.Cooper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
83.7%
(12:44) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NU42 (#19 Y.Kemajou)Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+32
85.7%
(12:10) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 32 yards gain to the PSU26 (#17 J.Zayas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
86.2%
(11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at PSU23, for 8 yards to the PSU18 (#17 J.Zayas; #8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+1
88.2%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU17 (#19 Y.Kemajou)Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
88.2%
(10:29) #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU17 (#3 J.Patton; #33 A.McPherson)Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
88.0%
(09:49) #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #41 R.Preckel thrown to PSU18 broken up by #8 K.Ebel, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4714% → 12%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
86.0%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush right for 2 yards gain to the PSU19 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+10
86.7%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 10 yards gain to the PSU29 (#2 K.McKinzie; #29 J.Stevens Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
86.5%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the PSU33 (#29 J.Stevens Jr.)Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
86.3%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #0 C.Sowell thrown to PSU40 QB hurried by #95 M.Mayne, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NU Pass Interference (#4 M.Pate) 8 yards from PSU33 to PSU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
87.4%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU49, for 16 yards to the NU43 (#3 B.Deasfernandes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
87.1%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #0 C.Sowell thrown to NU24Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
87.5%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 0 yards to the NU43 (#2 K.McKinzie; #24 J.Johnson)Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
87.9%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep left to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to NU15Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
88.3%
(07:01) #38 N.Tiyce punt 37 yards to the NU06 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NU06 PENALTY PSU Kick Catch Interference (#2 A.Collins) 15 yards from NU06 to NU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:3490% → 98%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
90.4%
(06:49) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NU25 (#99 K.Williams)Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
90.8%
(06:17) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NU33 (#92 S.Taupaki; #1 I.Ezeogu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
91.2%
(05:43) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush left for 9 yards gain to the NU42 (#21 V.Toure)Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+9
96.8%
(04:58) Shotgun #19 D.Wagner rush right for 9 yards gain to the PSU49 (#9 C.Brezina; #31 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.7%
(04:10) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Himon II thrown to PSU46 QB hurried by #33 A.McPhersonSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
97.7%
(04:06) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 3 yards loss to the NU48 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+15
97.8%
(03:17) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush left for 15 yards gain to the PSU37 (#9 C.Brezina), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+31
98.1%
(02:42) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep middle to #17 G.Wilde caught at PSU06, for 31 yards to the PSU06 (#3 J.Patton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
98.1%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PSU07 (#13 T.Rojas; #5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.3%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 6 yards gain to the PSU01 (#2 A.Collins)Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:13 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:083% → 3%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.1%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU30, for 7 yards to the PSU32 (#3 B.Deasfernandes; #54 T.Gant)Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
97.3%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU33, for 2 yards to the PSU34 (#4 M.Pate)Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.4%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU36 (#15 B.Flakes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.4%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #33 B.Brus at PSU49, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
98.6%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 18 yards gain to the PSU31 (#99 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
98.9%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU28 (#25 A.Tatsch; #91 A.Nnodim)Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
98.9%
(13:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU24 (#25 A.Tatsch) PENALTY NU Holding (#73 D.McGuire) 10 yards from PSU28 to PSU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+5
98.9%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush left for 5 yards gain to the PSU33 (#99 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+1
99.0%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU32 (#8 K.Ebel; #25 A.Tatsch)Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+50
98.9%
(11:44) #90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 11:45, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:332% → 5%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.2%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #2 Z.Robinson caught at PSU36, for 5 yards to the PSU37 (#3 B.Deasfernandes; #37 M.Mohring)Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
98.2%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #18 B.Brahmer caught at PSU41, for 5 yards to the PSU42 (#4 M.Pate; #2 K.McKinzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
98.3%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at NU49, for 15 yards to the NU43 (#29 J.Stevens Jr.; #33 B.Brus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
98.3%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #1 J.Peoples caught at NU40, for 11 yards to the NU32 (#7 O.Adeyi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
98.1%
(10:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #18 B.Brahmer caught at NU27, for 7 yards to the NU25 (#7 O.Adeyi; #33 B.Brus)Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
98.1%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep left to #0 C.Sowell thrown to NU00 broken up by #25 M.Dorsey Jr.Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
98.2%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 0 yards to the NU25 (#15 B.Flakes; #47 M.Kilbane)Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+8
98.4%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #0 C.Sowell caught at NU19, for 8 yards to the NU17 (#25 M.Dorsey Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.2%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #2 Z.Robinson thrown to NU05 PENALTY PSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass offsetting NU Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
98.3%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush left for 1 yard gain to the NU16 (#2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
94.8%
Chase Sowell 16 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 5:2697% → 100%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.1%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 21 yards gain to the NU46 (#31 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.7%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush right for 7 yards gain to the PSU47 (#99 K.Williams; #13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
98.1%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Northwestern rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU45 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
98.0%
(05:32) No Huddle #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU40 (#13 T.Rojas; #8 K.Ebel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
98.3%
(04:47) No Huddle #5 C.Komolafe rush right for 2 yards loss to the PSU42 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+6
98.6%
(04:41) No Huddle #19 D.Wagner rush left for 6 yards gain to the PSU36 (#21 V.Toure), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
98.7%
PENALTY NU Delay Of Game 5 yards from PSU36 to PSU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+13
98.7%
(03:54) No Huddle #27 G.Sawchuk rush left for 13 yards gain to the PSU28 (#13 T.Rojas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.9%
(03:11) No Huddle #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU28 (#99 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.1%
(03:12) No Huddle #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 7 yards gain to the PSU21 (#99 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
99.1%
(03:02) No Huddle #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU19 (#8 K.Ebel; #13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+37
99.8%
(02:20) #90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 02:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU27, for 6 yards to the PSU31 (#3 B.Deasfernandes), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.7%
(01:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to PSU38 broken up by #33 B.Brus QB hurried by #24 J.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
99.7%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #21 C.Hansen caught at PSU33, for 9 yards to the PSU40 (#33 B.Brus), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.8%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #18 B.Brahmer caught at PSU44, for 10 yards to the PSU50 (#7 O.Adeyi; #32 M.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
50
0
99.7%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass intercepted by #6 R.Fitzgerald at NU29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.8%
(01:32) Kneel down by Northwestern at NU28 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-1
99.8%
(00:45) Kneel down by Northwestern at NU27 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 12
OPP 0
0
99.8%
(00:27) Kneel down by Northwestern at NU27 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:21
Joseph Himon II 38 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)
+5.4
TD · Q2 10:39
C. Hansen run for 8 yds, for a TD (R. Barker KICK) (J. Kleather KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q4 7:53
Chase Sowell 16 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com