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MICH

Michigan 14 at Minnesota 20

MINN
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:22 · (07:22) #42 T.Weston punt 27 yards to the MICH15 muffed by #3 A.Marsh at MICH15 recovered by MINN #52 A.Soukup at MICH17, End Of Play
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Pregame prior−7.0Home team on offense−8.0Garbage-time factor−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score differential−2.7Blowout margin−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:48: (03:00) #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #44 N.Staehling at MICH21 QB hurried by #0 J.Hill #44 N.Staehling return 79 yards to the MINN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:48 #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford) — MICH win probability +12.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:58: (14:59) #12 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup), clock 14:58 — MINN win probability +5.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 13:44: (13:44) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at MICH02, for 3 yards to the MICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:44 #12 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup) — MINN win probability +24.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:33: Timeout Michigan, clock 02:33 — MICH win probability +16.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:16: (02:31) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at MINN30, for 1 yard loss to the MINN30 (#3 S.Snowden) — MINN win probability +16.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:55MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:45MICH 4th & 7 at MINN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:27MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:35MICH 4th & 12 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:35MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:03MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:27MINN 4th & 1 at MICH 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−5.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:22MINN 4th & 15 at MICH 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:46MINN 4th & 6 at MICH 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−11.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:58MINN 4th & 7 at MICH 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−13.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:08MICH 4th & 13 at MINN 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:47MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:24MICH 4th & 20 at MICH 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:45MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:32MICH 4th & 5 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:46MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:48MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:5968% → 67%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MICH33 (#4 Z.Harden; #9 G.Monroe)Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
32.3%
(14:29) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 7 yards gain to the MICH40 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
32.4%
(13:55) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #3 A.Marsh caught at MICH38, for 5 yards to the MICH45 (#17 J.Nestor), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
32.6%
(13:22) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MICH49 (#70 N.Crowder)Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-1
32.8%
(12:44) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MICH48 (#4 Z.Harden; #19 J.Gerlach)Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
33.2%
(12:03) #33 C.Brown punt 52 yards to the MINN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:1534% → 39%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
33.5%
(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at MINN30, for 11 yards to the MINN31 (#1 R.Moore; #0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
33.8%
(11:10) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MINN28 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+22
34.1%
(10:27) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete deep right to #13 N.Jennings caught at MICH50, for 22 yards to the MINN50 (#3 S.Snowden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
50
+3
34.9%
(09:47) No Huddle #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MICH47 (#95 T.Pierce; #93 B.Patterson)Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+33
35.3%
(09:06) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at MICH30, for 33 yards to the MICH14 (#1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
35.8%
(08:19) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MICH11 (#91 J.Lea'ea)Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
36.1%
(07:36) #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #13 N.Jennings thrown to MICH00 QB hurried by #91 J.Lea'ea PENALTY MICH Pass Interference (#7 C.Bracy) 9 yards from MICH11 to MICH02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.8%
(07:30) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:29 #12 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 5:3262% → 58%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
38.1%
(07:25) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MICH22 (#19 J.Gerlach)Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
38.5%
(06:41) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MICH24 (#19 J.Gerlach)Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+12
39.3%
(06:08) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #3 A.Marsh caught at MICH32, for 12 yards to the MICH36 (#3 T.Bush Jr.; #4 Z.Harden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
39.1%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #80 H.Hansen caught at MICH35, for 4 yards to the MICH40 (#19 J.Gerlach)Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
39.1%
(05:09) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 2 yards gain to the MICH42 (#14 K.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
39.6%
PENALTY MICH Offside (#70 B.Norton) 5 yards from MICH42 to MICH37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+13
40.8%
(04:10) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 13 yards gain to the MICH50 (#21 N.Parrish), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
50
0
39.9%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to MINN42 QB hurried by #0 A.SmithSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
50
-5
40.3%
(03:28) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush right for 5 yards loss to the MICH45 (#93 R.Sunram)Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+5
41.7%
PENALTY MICH Delay Of Game 5 yards from MICH45 to MICH40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+13
41.9%
(02:27) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #80 H.Hansen caught at MICH40, for 13 yards to the MINN47 (#6 M.Baranowski), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
42.1%
(01:51) #33 C.Brown punt 47 yards to the MINN00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5443% → 43%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.6%
(01:45) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #13 N.Jennings thrown to MINN27 QB hurried by #18 T.BowlesSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
42.6%
(01:42) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MINN24 (#7 C.Bracy; #17 E.Etta)Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-3
42.8%
(00:54) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #3 S.Snowden at MINN37 QB hurried by #18 T.Bowles #3 S.Snowden return 3 yards to the MINN34 (#13 N.Jennings)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:5559% → 64%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
40.8%
(00:43) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 4 yards gain to the MINN30 (#14 K.Brown; #9 G.Monroe), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+16
41.1%
(00:09) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #6 J.Buchanan caught at MINN20, for 16 yards to the MINN14 (#5 A.West), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
41.1%
(14:56) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MINN10 (#49 M.Kingsbury; #4 Z.Harden)Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
41.5%
(14:22) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at MINN06, for 5 yards to the MINN05 (#14 K.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
36.5%
(13:52) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MINN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:46, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1139% → 39%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.3%
(13:45) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MINN31 (#13 A.Moa)Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
40.4%
(13:04) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MINN33 (#91 J.Lea'ea)Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
39.7%
(12:15) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MINN30 (#44 N.Staehling; #18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.7%
(11:32) #42 T.Weston punt 18 yards to the MINN48 blocked by #88 L.Edokpayi, out of bounds at MINN48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4363% → 60%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
36.8%
(11:27) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 2 yards loss to the MINN50 (#17 J.Nestor)Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 12
50
0
37.6%
(10:46) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to MINN42Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 12
50
0
38.4%
(10:46) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to MINN46 broken up by #1 J.HowardSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 12
50
0
39.7%
(10:40) #33 C.Brown punt 37 yards to the MINN13 fair catch by #11 J.Tracy at MINN13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8INT TD
14 plays · 64 yds · 7:3340% → 35%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
40.3%
(10:34) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #13 N.Jennings caught at MINN16, for 3 yards to the MINN16 (#2 S.Earls)Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
40.7%
(09:55) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush right for 3 yards gain to the MINN19 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+4
40.1%
(09:10) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Taylor thrown to MINN23, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MICH Pass Interference (#12 N.Owusu-Boateng) 4 yards from MINN19 to MINN23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
41.3%
(09:07) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at MINN22, for 19 yards to the MINN42 (#1 R.Moore; #10 Z.Berry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
43.3%
(08:19) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MINN50 (#4 C.Taylor; #94 N.Marshall)Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 2
50
0
44.2%
(07:30) #1 D.Taylor rush left for 0 yards to the MINN50 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 2
50
+6
43.8%
(06:47) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MICH44 (#18 T.Bowles; #1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWN. #4 C.Taylor injured on the playSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
45.1%
(06:12) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #19 P.Walsh caught at MICH47, for 1 yard loss to the MICH45 (#10 Z.Berry)Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
44.8%
(05:46) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #13 N.Jennings caught at MICH47, for 9 yards to the MICH36 (#13 A.Moa)Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
45.1%
(05:03) #5 D.Lindsey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MICH34 (#95 T.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
46.8%
(04:18) #9 X.Ford rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MICH26 (#13 A.Moa)Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
47.1%
(03:38) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MICH23 (#1 R.Moore; #93 B.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-79
34.7%
(03:00) #5 D.Lindsey pass intercepted by #44 N.Staehling at MICH21 QB hurried by #0 J.Hill #44 N.Staehling return 79 yards to the MINN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:48 #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:0231% → 30%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
30.5%
(02:44) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MINN18 (#30 M.Alford; #13 A.Moa)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+15
29.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Smith thrown to MINN44 PENALTY MICH Pass Interference (#3 S.Snowden) 15 yards from MINN18 to MINN33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
29.8%
(01:56) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Tracy thrown to MINN40Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
29.5%
(01:52) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush right for 0 yards to the MINN33 (#3 S.Snowden)Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
30.1%
(01:47) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Tracy thrown to MINN50Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
29.9%
(01:38) #42 T.Weston punt 37 yards to the MICH30, out of bounds at MICH30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2372% → 70%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-12
28.2%
(01:33) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MICH18 (#3 T.Bush Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+4
29.3%
(00:48) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MICH22 (#6 M.Baranowski; #49 M.Kingsbury)Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+5
29.8%
(00:05) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MICH27 (#0 A.Smith; #70 N.Crowder)Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
30.4%
(00:03) #33 C.Brown punt 43 yards to the MINN30 #11 J.Tracy return 0 yards to the MINN30 (#88 D.Tonielli; #10 Z.Berry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
15 plays · 33 yds · 7:2831% → 29%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at MINN32, for 7 yards to the MINN32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
32.4%
(14:20) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MINN34 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
31.7%
(13:55) #5 D.Lindsey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MINN35 (#17 E.Etta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
31.2%
(13:24) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #11 J.Tracy caught at MINN34, for 6 yards to the MINN41 (#1 R.Moore; #94 N.Marshall)Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
33.1%
(12:45) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MINN48 (#13 A.Moa; #18 T.Bowles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
33.1%
(11:51) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Taylor thrown to MINN50Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
32.8%
(11:51) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #23 T.Thomas caught at MINN44, for 8 yards to the MICH44 (#3 S.Snowden; #99 B.Kanka)Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
33.8%
(11:11) #5 D.Lindsey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MICH43 (#18 T.Bowles). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+6
32.2%
(10:34) #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #23 T.Thomas caught at MICH37, for 6 yards to the MICH37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
34.1%
(09:51) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #11 J.Tracy caught at MICH40, for 3 yards to the MICH34 (#0 J.Hill)Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
35.6%
(09:14) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MICH33 (#17 E.Etta)Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
33.8%
PENALTY MINN False Start (#11 J.Tracy) 5 yards from MICH33 to MICH38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 11
OPP 38
-4
31.9%
(08:13) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at MICH42, for 4 yards loss to the MICH42 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 15
OPP 42
+2
29.1%
(07:22) #42 T.Weston punt 27 yards to the MICH15 muffed by #3 A.Marsh at MICH15 recovered by MINN #52 A.Soukup at MICH17, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2836% → 40%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
35.7%
(07:20) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MICH15 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
35.8%
(06:38) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #19 P.Walsh caught at MICH13, for 2 yards to the MICH13 QB hurried by #93 B.Patterson, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
34.0%
(05:52) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Taylor thrown to MICH10Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
39.5%
(05:47) #12 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup), clock 05:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:3464% → 65%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
35.9%
(05:40) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MICH28 (#49 M.Kingsbury; #4 Z.Harden)Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
34.7%
(05:01) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #5 A.West at MICH42 #5 A.West return 0 yards to the MICH42, out of bounds at MICH42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:5342% → 46%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
41.5%
(04:58) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MICH36 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+1
41.7%
(04:20) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MICH35 (#41 T.Boney)Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+10
39.9%
(03:35) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #11 J.Tracy caught at MICH28, for 10 yards to the MICH25 (#44 N.Staehling), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
42.2%
(02:48) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush right for 14 yards gain to the MICH11 (#18 T.Bowles), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
42.3%
(02:11) Shotgun #23 T.Thomas rush left for 1 yard gain to the MICH10 (#41 T.Boney; #95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
42.5%
(01:31) #13 N.Jennings rush right for 1 yard gain to the MICH09 (#7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+1
40.4%
(00:44) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey rush left for 1 yard gain to the MICH08 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q4 14:58
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
46.4%
(14:59) #12 L.Drzewiecki field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup), clock 14:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
(14:56) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #4 Z.Harden at MICH35 QB hurried by #1 J.Howard #4 Z.Harden return 0 yards to the MICH35 (#9 C.Goodwin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:5952% → 77%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+31
51.7%
(14:43) #13 N.Jennings rush left for 31 yards gain to the MICH04 (#1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
51.9%
(14:26) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MICH03 (#44 N.Staehling; #7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.6%
(13:44) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at MICH02, for 3 yards to the MICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:44 #12 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 5:2935% → 26%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.1%
(13:43) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MICH27 (#90 X.Chapman)Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
65.5%
(13:09) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #6 J.Buchanan caught at MICH36, for 12 yards to the MICH39 (#17 J.Nestor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
63.9%
(12:33) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MICH40 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
66.5%
PENALTY MICH Illegal Snap (#53 J.Guarnera) 5 yards from MICH40 to MICH35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+14
69.3%
(11:55) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 14 yards gain to the MICH49 (#14 K.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
64.2%
(11:24) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MINN48 (#4 Z.Harden)Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
64.1%
(10:53) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MINN39 (#49 M.Kingsbury; #6 M.Baranowski), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
66.5%
(10:13) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 1 yard loss to the MINN40 (#70 N.Crowder)Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+1
66.8%
(09:37) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MINN39 (#70 N.Crowder)Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-2
69.8%
(08:54) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MINN42 (#3 T.Bush Jr., #0 A.Smith)Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 13
OPP 42
+6
74.3%
(08:08) #33 C.Brown punt 36 yards to the MINN06 #11 J.Tracy return 6 yards to the MINN12 (#4 C.Taylor), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:1383% → 85%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
82.6%
(08:05) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MINN19 (#94 N.Marshall; #13 A.Moa)Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+3
84.1%
(07:21) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MINN22 (#18 T.Bowles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
84.5%
(06:30) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 0 yards to the MINN22 (#7 C.Bracy; #0 J.Hill)Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
85.7%
(05:48) #23 T.Thomas rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MINN27 (#12 N.Owusu-Boateng; #7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
86.3%
(05:01) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass incomplete short left to #13 N.Jennings thrown to MINN38 QB hurried by #94 N.MarshallSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+10
84.9%
(04:55) #42 T.Weston punt 58 yards to the MICH15 #3 A.Marsh return 10 yards to the MICH25 (#4 Z.Harden; #46 M.Carrier)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1522% → 19%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
78.0%
(04:46) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at MICH37, for 12 yards to the MICH37 (#5 A.West), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.1%
(04:20) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #83 Z.Marshall thrown to MICH43Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
76.4%
(04:14) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MICH27 (#93 R.Sunram, #3 T.Bush Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 20
OWN 27
0
80.3%
(03:34) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep middle to #3 A.Marsh thrown to MICH47 broken up by #3 T.Bush Jr.Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
81.4%
(03:29) #33 C.Brown punt 44 yards to the MINN29 fair catch by #11 J.Tracy at MINN29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3389% → 92%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
88.7%
(03:20) Shotgun #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MINN33 (#13 A.Moa)Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-2
92.3%
(02:37) #1 D.Taylor rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MINN31 (#93 B.Patterson; #17 E.Etta)Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-1
92.6%
(02:31) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at MINN30, for 1 yard loss to the MINN30 (#3 S.Snowden)Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
92.2%
(01:59) #42 T.Weston punt 57 yards to the MICH13 blocked by #94 N.MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:0915% → 16%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
85.5%
(01:41) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to MICH30 broken up by #5 A.WestSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+17
85.8%
(01:39) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at MICH28, for 17 yards to the MICH30 (#14 K.Brown), 1ST DOWN. #6 J.Buchanan injured on the playSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
83.2%
(01:30) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MICH39 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+6
81.9%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 6 yards gain to the MICH45 (#5 A.West), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.0%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to MINN35 broken up by #14 K.Brown. #55 N.Efobi injured on the playSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
82.9%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #80 H.Hansen caught at MICH48, for 5 yards to the MICH50 (#6 M.Baranowski)Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 5
50
0
81.1%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Marsh thrown to MINN41 broken up by #40 N.ParrishSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 5
50
0
83.9%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to MINN27, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22END OF HALF
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0297% → 96%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
50
-1
96.8%
(00:31) Kneel down by #5 D.Lindsey at MINN49 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-2
97.0%
(00:30) Kneel down by #5 D.Lindsey at MINN47 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-4
96.4%
(00:29) #5 D.Lindsey rush middle for 4 yards loss to the MINN43 fumbled by #5 D.Lindsey at MINN45 recovered by MINN #5 D.Lindsey at MINN43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:44
(13:44) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short right to #1 D.Taylor caught at MICH02, for 3 yards to the MICH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:44 #12 L.Drzewiecki kick attempt good (H: #42 T.Weston, LS: #52 A.Soukup)
+24.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:16
(02:31) Shotgun #5 D.Lindsey pass complete short left to #13 N.Jennings caught at MINN30, for 1 yard loss to the MINN30 (#3 S.Snowden)
+16.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:33
Timeout Michigan, clock 02:33
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com