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OSU

Ohio State 31 at Iowa 14

IOWA
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:23 · (12:23) #96 C.Hawkins field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs), clock 12:23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Pregame prior−29.6Home team on offense−2.2Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:17: (04:18) #96 C.Hawkins field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs), clock 04:17 — OSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:12: (00:17) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA03, for 12 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:12, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs) — OSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:11: (06:19) #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA14, for 57 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:11, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs) — OSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:47: (12:49) #24 J.Jackson rush right for 7 yards gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs) — OSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:30: (09:32) #22 B.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:30 #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed PENALTY #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution 2 yards from OSU03 to OSU01. NO PLAY #2 R.Vander Zee pass attempt Successful — IOWA win probability +5.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:01IOWA 4th & 2 at OSU 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:17OSU 4th & 6 at IOWA 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00IOWA 4th & 20 at OSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:23OSU 4th & 11 at IOWA 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:52OSU 4th & 17 at OSU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:41OSU 4th & 8 at OSU 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:07IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:17OSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−2.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:57IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:00OSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:18OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:12OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:11OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:47OSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:30IOWA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4214% → 14%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
13.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA20, for 7 yards to the IOWA32 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
13.9%
PENALTY IOWA False Start (#71 J.Dotzler) 5 yards from IOWA32 to IOWA27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-13
14.1%
(14:19) #9 H.Brown sacked for loss of 13 yards to the IOWA14 (#2 K.Jackson Jr.), fumble by #9 H.Brown recovered by OSU #14 C.Alliegro at IOWA14, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4886% → 86%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
14.1%
(14:13) Shotgun #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA10 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
14.3%
PENALTY OSU False Start (#58 G.VanSickle) 5 yards from IOWA10 to IOWA15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 11
OPP 0
+15
14.1%
Devin McCuin 15 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:1314% → 16%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.2%
(13:17) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee thrown to IOWA32Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.3%
(13:14) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA29 (#4 Q.Russaw)Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
14.3%
(12:38) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee thrown to IOWA35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (#6 D.Sanchez) 9 yards from IOWA29 to IOWA38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
14.4%
(12:30) #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #2 R.Vander Zee thrown to OSU32Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
14.5%
(12:27) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA37, for 18 yards to the OSU44 (#7 J.Mathews Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
14.8%
(11:57) #21 L.Phillips Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the OSU40 (#26 P.Pierce)Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
15.0%
(11:27) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right thrown to OSU34 QB hurried by #96 E.HoustonSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
15.0%
(11:11) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OSU33 (#26 P.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
15.3%
(10:41) Shotgun #14 T.Diaz rush left for 8 yards gain to the OSU25 (#1 E.Little Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
15.5%
(10:16) #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to OSU00Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
15.4%
(10:08) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #22 B.Jackson thrown to OSU23 broken up by #3 J.SmithSimilar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
15.8%
(10:04) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 10:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:3485% → 84%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
15.5%
(10:01) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU46, for 16 yards to the IOWA44 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
15.7%
(09:30) Shotgun #24 J.Jackson rush left for 8 yards gain to the IOWA36 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #57 W.Hubert)Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+7
15.8%
(08:45) #24 J.Jackson rush right for 7 yards gain to the IOWA29 (#57 W.Hubert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
15.9%
PENALTY OSU False Start (#67 A.Siereveld) 5 yards from IOWA29 to IOWA34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+4
16.0%
(08:00) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA30, for 4 yards to the IOWA30, out of bounds at IOWA30Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+5
16.2%
(07:27) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA25 (#57 W.Hubert)Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+11
16.6%
(06:42) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #3 D.McCuin caught at IOWA20, for 11 yards to the IOWA14 (#8 D.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
16.6%
(06:05) #10 J.Sayin rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA12 (#33 C.Buffington; #97 I.Epenesa)Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
16.8%
PENALTY OSU False Start (#58 G.VanSickle) 5 yards from IOWA12 to IOWA17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
17.0%
(05:04) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short middle to #0 B.Inniss thrown to IOWA13Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+7
17.4%
(05:01) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA15, for 7 yards to the IOWA10 (#11 J.Wallace)Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
16.3%
(04:18) #96 C.Hawkins field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs), clock 04:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:0917% → 19%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
16.8%
(04:15) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 0 yards to the IOWA30 (#96 E.Houston; #4 Q.Russaw)Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
16.8%
(03:44) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #87 A.Ostrenga thrown to IOWA37 QB hurried by #55 J.WalkerSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+16
16.6%
(03:33) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA32, for 16 yards to the IOWA46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
17.6%
(03:05) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA43, for 10 yards to the OSU44 (#1 E.Little Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
17.8%
(02:43) #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #48 Z.Ortwerth caught at OSU47, for 7 yards to the OSU37 (#5 R.Pettijohn)Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+17
18.1%
(02:05) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #0 J.Buie caught at OSU32, for 17 yards to the OSU20 (#6 D.Sanchez; #8 J.McClain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
18.6%
(01:26) #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right thrown to OSU20 QB hurried by #96 E.HoustonSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
18.7%
(01:19) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 0 yards to the OSU20 (#1 E.Little Jr.; #9 Z.Grady)Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-10
18.4%
(00:52) Shotgun #9 H.Brown sacked for loss of 10 yards to the OSU30 (#4 Q.Russaw)Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 20
OPP 30
+48
19.3%
Caden Buhr 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:1980% → 79%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
19.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU40, for 54 yards to the IOWA21 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
18.9%
(14:16) #25 B.Jackson rush right for 1 yard gain to the IOWA20 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-1
19.1%
(13:52) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush right for 1 yard loss to the IOWA21 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-1
20.0%
(13:09) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 1 yard to the IOWA22 (#84 J.Anderson)Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+40
21.0%
(12:23) #96 C.Hawkins field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs), clock 12:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4421% → 22%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
21.0%
(12:22) #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA38, for 25 yards to the IOWA47 (#8 J.McClain), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
22.6%
(11:54) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA49 (#96 E.Houston)Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
22.8%
(11:23) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to OSU48 QB hurried by #94 J.MooreSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+4
22.3%
(11:20) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at OSU48, for 4 yards to the OSU47 (#28 S.Caldwell)Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+5
23.0%
PENALTY IOWA Delay Of Game 5 yards from OSU47 to IOWA48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
22.3%
(10:42) #49 B.Everitt punt 50 yards to the OSU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:3277% → 75%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
22.7%
(10:30) #32 I.West rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU04 (#97 I.Epenesa)Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+6
22.8%
(10:01) #32 I.West rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OSU10 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+18
23.1%
(09:21) #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU28, for 18 yards to the OSU28 (#8 D.Lee; #6 Z.Lutmer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IOWA Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
22.4%
(09:03) Shotgun #32 I.West rush left for 4 yards gain to the OSU32 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
22.5%
(08:27) #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 0 yards to the OSU32 (#36 J.Montgomery; #33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+8
22.3%
(07:45) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #0 B.Inniss caught at OSU37, for 8 yards to the OSU40 (#8 D.Lee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.5%
(07:10) #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left thrown to OSU50 QB hurried by #33 C.BuffingtonSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
21.9%
(07:04) Shotgun #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 12 yards gain to the IOWA48 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #33 C.Buffington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
21.6%
(06:29) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #88 M.LeBlanc caught at IOWA45, for 6 yards to the IOWA42 (#36 J.Montgomery; #6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-13
21.9%
(05:44) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 13 yards to the OSU45 (#43 K.Brown), fumble by #10 J.Sayin recovered by OSU #58 G.VanSickle at OSU45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
23.7%
(04:59) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left to #4 J.Smith thrown to IOWA40 QB hurried by #33 C.BuffingtonSimilar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
24.7%
(04:57) #42 J.McGuire punt 33 yards to the IOWA22 fair catch by #8 E.James at IOWA22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:5724% → 24%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
24.3%
(04:49) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#14 C.Alliegro; #9 Z.Grady)Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
26.1%
(04:14) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA33 (#9 Z.Grady; #96 E.Houston), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
25.3%
(03:36) Shotgun #21 L.Phillips Jr. rush middle for 11 yards gain to the IOWA44 (#14 C.Alliegro), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
27.1%
(02:54) #21 L.Phillips Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#26 P.Pierce; #9 Z.Grady)Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
27.5%
(02:17) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #8 E.James thrown to OSU45Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
26.7%
(02:13) PENALTY IOWA Illegal Formation 5 yards from IOWA47 to IOWA42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
24.3%
(01:58) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee thrown to OSU46 QB hurried by #12 B.AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+1
23.7%
(01:54) #49 B.Everitt punt 43 yards to the OSU15 #7 P.Bell return 1 yard to the OSU16 (#1 D.Jones)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 1:2976% → 86%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
23.8%
(01:48) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush right for 12 yards gain to the OSU28 (#3 J.Watson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
23.3%
(01:35) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #3 D.McCuin caught at OSU41, for 20 yards to the OSU48 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
22.1%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #0 B.Inniss caught at IOWA48, for 6 yards to the IOWA46 (#8 D.Lee), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
21.3%
(01:17) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA41 (#36 J.Montgomery; #43 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
21.6%
(01:01) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IOWA34 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+16
21.2%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 16 yards gain to the IOWA18 (#11 J.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
21.1%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short left to #83 N.Roberts thrown to IOWA04Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
21.3%
(00:24) Shotgun #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the IOWA12 (#5 A.Hawkins; #6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
14.0%
(00:17) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA03, for 12 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:12, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.7%
(00:01) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA27 (#4 Q.Russaw; #3 J.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:1083% → 83%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
16.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 6 yards to the OSU29 (#11 J.Wallace)Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+8
17.1%
(14:24) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short left to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU34, for 8 yards to the OSU37 (#8 D.Lee), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+5
16.7%
(13:42) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU42 (#46 P.Ries; #43 K.Brown)Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
16.9%
PENALTY OSU False Start (#17 T.Alford) 5 yards from OSU42 to OSU37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+3
17.3%
(12:49) #42 J.McGuire punt 47 yards to the IOWA16 #8 E.James return 3 yards to the IOWA19, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1717% → 16%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
16.7%
(12:41) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #85 T.Meyer caught at IOWA23, for 5 yards to the IOWA24 (#26 P.Pierce)Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-2
17.0%
(12:06) #21 L.Phillips Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the IOWA22 (#17 T.Alford)Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
16.1%
(11:24) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep left to #8 E.James thrown to IOWA42 broken up by #18 C.CalhounSimilar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+3
15.8%
(11:15) #49 B.Everitt punt 42 yards to the OSU36 #7 P.Bell return 3 yards to the OSU39 (#23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4384% → 84%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
15.8%
(11:02) #25 B.Jackson rush right for 10 yards gain to the OSU49 (#3 J.Watson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
15.4%
(10:33) #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #13 D.Campbell)Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
15.4%
(10:08) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA42 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
15.1%
(09:28) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete deep left to #4 J.Smith thrown to IOWA15 broken up by #8 D.LeeSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-1
16.1%
(09:17) #25 B.Jackson rush left for 1 yard loss to the IOWA43 (#36 J.Montgomery; #43 K.Brown) PENALTY OSU Illegal Shift declined OSU Holding declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1517% → 15%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
17.1%
(09:16) #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to OSU44Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
17.0%
(09:08) #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right to #2 R.Vander Zee thrown to IOWA49Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
16.2%
(09:07) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to OSU48 broken up by #7 J.Mathews Jr.Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
15.3%
(08:57) #49 B.Everitt punt 32 yards to the OSU25 fair catch by #7 P.Bell at OSU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3684% → 94%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.1%
(08:56) Shotgun #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OSU28 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
15.9%
(08:28) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU32, for 4 yards to the OSU32 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
16.3%
(07:44) Shotgun #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU37 (#33 C.Buffington; #36 J.Montgomery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
15.5%
(07:01) #24 J.Jackson rush right for 6 yards gain to the OSU43 (#20 T.Hudkins; #33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+57
6.2%
(06:19) #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA14, for 57 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:11, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:029% → 9%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.6%
(06:05) #28 K.Moulton rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA28 (#5 R.Pettijohn)Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
8.5%
(05:41) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 3 yards loss to the IOWA25 (#14 C.Alliegro; #4 Q.Russaw)Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
8.2%
(05:02) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #22 B.Jackson caught at IOWA25, for 12 yards to the IOWA37 (#10 L.Roker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
8.6%
(04:33) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA35, for 4 yards to the IOWA41 (#8 J.McClain; #5 R.Pettijohn)Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
9.0%
(03:59) #9 H.Brown rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA43 (#96 E.Houston), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
8.8%
(03:26) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA47, for 7 yards to the IOWA50 (#18 C.Calhoun), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
50
0
9.0%
(02:56) #9 H.Brown pass intercepted by #8 J.McClain at OSU30 QB hurried by #55 J.Walker, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:0595% → 99%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
4.8%
PENALTY OSU False Start (#67 A.Siereveld) 5 yards from OSU30 to OSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+8
4.9%
(02:51) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at OSU30, for 8 yards to the OSU33 (#3 J.Watson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+9
4.7%
(02:19) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #32 I.West caught at OSU38, for 9 yards to the OSU42 (#36 J.Montgomery), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
4.4%
(01:46) #32 I.West rush right for 8 yards gain to the OSU50 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 2
50
+3
3.8%
(01:09) #32 I.West rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA47 (#96 B.Hawthorne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
3.9%
(00:30) #10 J.Sayin sacked for loss of 9 yards to the OSU44 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+34
3.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep right to #3 D.McCuin caught at IOWA25, for 34 yards to the IOWA22, out of bounds at IOWA22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
3.6%
(14:30) #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the IOWA13 (#92 B.Stevenson)Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+3
3.5%
(13:50) Shotgun #24 J.Jackson rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA10 (#23 L.Van Kekerix; #20 T.Hudkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
3.4%
(13:14) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA07 (#92 B.Stevenson)Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.6%
(12:49) #24 J.Jackson rush right for 7 yards gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:47, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:101% → 6%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.6%
(12:44) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 5 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#26 P.Pierce; #6 D.Sanchez)Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.6%
(12:35) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA33 (#26 P.Pierce; #28 S.Caldwell)Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
0.6%
(12:02) Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA37, for 15 yards to the IOWA48 (#17 T.Alford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
0.6%
(11:35) Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski pass complete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at OSU34, for 18 yards to the OSU34 (#6 D.Sanchez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
0.6%
(11:15) Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski pass complete short right to #14 T.Diaz caught at OSU30, for 9 yards to the OSU25 (#28 S.Caldwell; #7 J.Mathews Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+8
0.6%
(10:44) Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski pass complete short middle to #14 T.Diaz caught at OSU23, for 8 yards to the OSU17 (#10 L.Roker), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.6%
(10:14) Shotgun #22 B.Jackson rush left for 0 yards to the OSU17 (#14 C.Alliegro; #94 J.Moore) PENALTY IOWA Holding (#61 C.Winter) 10 yards from OSU17 to OSU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+17
0.5%
(09:52) Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski pass complete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at OSU11, for 17 yards to the OSU10 (#10 L.Roker), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+8
0.6%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Hecklinski pass incomplete short middle to #2 R.Vander Zee thrown to OSU00 PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (#6 D.Sanchez) 8 yards from OSU10 to OSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.8%
(09:32) #22 B.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:30 #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed PENALTY #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution 2 yards from OSU03 to OSU01. NO PLAY #2 R.Vander Zee pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20END OF GAME
21 plays · 55 yds · 8:4795% → 99%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.6%
(09:30) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the OSU27 (#36 J.Montgomery; #7 R.Godfrey Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
4.5%
(08:52) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Smith thrown to OSU35 broken up by #3 J.WatsonSimilar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
4.5%
(08:46) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #83 N.Roberts caught at OSU36, for 9 yards to the OSU36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
4.2%
(07:56) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU41 (#20 T.Hudkins)Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
3.8%
(07:14) #25 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OSU45 (#20 T.Hudkins; #51 L.Gaffney)Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+9
3.8%
(06:36) #10 J.Sayin rush right for 9 yards gain to the IOWA46 (#18 X.Styles), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
3.3%
(05:57) #32 I.West rush left for 4 yards loss to the IOWA50 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 14
50
+2
3.1%
(05:18) Shotgun #32 I.West rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA48 (#33 C.Buffington; #51 L.Gaffney)Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+18
2.7%
(04:35) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short middle to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA30, for 18 yards to the IOWA30 (#7 R.Godfrey Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
2.6%
(03:48) #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA28 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
2.3%
(03:04) #25 B.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the IOWA26 (#43 K.Brown; #92 B.Stevenson)Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
2.3%
(02:21) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete deep right to #4 J.Smith thrown to IOWA02 broken up by #3 J.Watson PENALTY OSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+5
2.5%
(02:12) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass incomplete deep right to #4 J.Smith thrown to IOWA00 broken up by #3 J.Watson PENALTY IOWA Offside (#18 X.Styles) 5 yards from IOWA26 to IOWA21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+3
1.4%
(02:04) Shotgun #25 B.Jackson rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA18 (#36 J.Montgomery; #18 X.Styles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.0%
(02:00) #25 B.Jackson rush left for 0 yards to the IOWA18 (#51 L.Gaffney)Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
1.0%
(01:14) #24 J.Jackson rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA18 (#11 J.Wallace)Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-2
1.0%
(00:34) Kneel down by #10 J.Sayin at IOWA20 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:11
(06:19) #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA14, for 57 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:11, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs)
-9.3
TD · Q2 0:12
(00:17) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete short right to #4 J.Smith caught at IOWA03, for 12 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:12, 1ST DOWN #96 C.Hawkins kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #55 D.Riggs)
-7.4
TD · Q4 9:30
(09:32) #22 B.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:30 #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed PENALTY #59 T.Lauck rush attempt failed PENALTY OSU Illegal Substitution 2 yards from OSU03 to OSU01. NO PLAY #2 R.Vander Zee pass attempt Successful
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com