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PUR

Purdue 24 at Illinois 17

ILL
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:10 · (10:15) #42 D.Drennan punt 45 yards to the ILL40, out of bounds at ILL40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−26.3Pregame prior+4.3Garbage-time factor−7.5Score differential−7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:16: (04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete deep left to #11 T.Harris caught at ILL00, for 21 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab) — PUR win probability +9.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: (00:21) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR00, for 7 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +9.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q4 8:15: (08:18) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 08:15 — ILL win probability +12.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:29: (04:32) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:29. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #15 R.Browne rush attempt Successful — PUR win probability +9.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:26: (01:29) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #10 T.Robinson caught at PUR00, for 2 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:26, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +13.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:48PUR 4th & 10 at ILL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:57ILL 4th & 14 at PUR 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:11PUR 4th & 16 at ILL 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:17ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:05ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:12ILL 4th & 8 at PUR 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−1.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:05PUR 4th & 9 at ILL 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−10.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:13ILL 4th & 4 at PUR 16, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−13.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:13ILL 4th & 5 at PUR 17, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−13.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:40PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 19, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:16ILL 4th & 20 at PUR 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−4.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−2.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:10PUR 4th & 4 at PUR 15, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:15ILL 4th & 8 at PUR 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:01PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 4:16PUR Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:21ILL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:29PUR Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    91.8%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    92.8%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:26ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 8:0526% → 28%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 8 yards gain to the PUR33 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
74.4%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 X.Townsend rush right for 4 yards gain to the PUR37 (#10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
74.2%
PENALTY PUR False Start (#68 N.Mafi) 5 yards from PUR37 to PUR32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+4
74.2%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 4 yards gain to the PUR36 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+14
74.0%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 14 yards gain to the PUR50 (#32 T.Cox), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
50
+6
73.7%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #3 X.Townsend caught at ILL46, for 6 yards to the ILL44 (#0 M.Resetich), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
73.6%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL40 (#26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.3%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep right to #8 D.Morrissette thrown to ILL10Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
73.3%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush left for 4 yards gain to the ILL36 (#6 J.Clarke; #43 J.Barna)Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+6
73.1%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at ILL30, for 6 yards to the ILL30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
72.8%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #81 G.Burhenn caught at ILL31, for 8 yards to the ILL22 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
72.6%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 0 yards (0) to the ILL22 (#90 C.Janki; #18 M.Muragin) PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (#90 C.Janki) 11 yard from ILL22 to ILL11, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
72.3%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 4 yards gain to the ILL07 (#90 C.Janki; #24 W.Holmes)Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+1
72.0%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 1 yard gain to the ILL06 (#43 J.Barna; #52 P.Farrell)Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+5
72.0%
(07:13) PENALTY PUR False Start 5 yards from ILL06 to ILL11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
71.9%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Magwood thrown to ILL00Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+30
72.0%
(06:48) #92 J.Echeverria Lozano field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab), clock 06:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2MISSED FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 6:4272% → 70%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.1%
(06:47) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL30, for 5 yards to the ILL30 (#2 J.Mangham)Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
71.8%
(06:12) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL30 (#0 J.Hayden)Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
71.3%
(05:31) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL42, for 15 yards to the ILL45 (#1 S.Bradford; #4 H.Hines), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.0%
(04:51) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep left to #11 B.Trimble thrown to PUR15Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
71.6%
(04:45) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL46 (#40 I.Jeffries)Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+14
71.1%
(04:07) Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush right for 14 yards gain to the PUR40 (#8 C.Madden), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. #5 C.Valentine injured on the playSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.1%
(03:45) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to PUR00Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
72.0%
(03:39) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 3 yards gain to the PUR37 (#94 R.Lora)Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+13
71.8%
(02:54) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 13 yards gain to the PUR24 (#0 J.Hayden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
72.2%
(02:10) #17 C.Dixon rush left for 15 yards gain to the PUR09 (#13 J.Slaughter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
72.0%
(01:21) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR06 (#0 J.Hayden). #0 J.Hayden injured on the playSimilar
Q1 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-8
71.9%
(00:49) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR12, for 8 yards loss to the PUR14 (#7 D.Saunders)Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
70.3%
(00:02) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Trimble thrown to PUR00Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
69.5%
(14:57) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 32 yards NO GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 14:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:3331% → 37%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
69.1%
(14:56) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at PUR20, for 7 yards to the PUR27 (#0 M.Resetich)Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
68.4%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush left for 2 yards gain to the PUR29 (#54 D.John)Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
68.4%
(13:29) Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush right for 5 yards gain to the PUR34 (#32 T.Cox), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+61
67.9%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete deep right to #19 A.Waseem caught at ILL28, for 61 yards to the ILL05 (#7 M.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
66.0%
(12:13) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 9 yards loss to the ILL14 (#4 D.Brown; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
65.8%
(11:19) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ILL11 (#4 D.Brown)Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
66.0%
(10:35) PENALTY PUR False Start (#75 R.Schrieber) 5 yards from ILL11 to ILL16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
66.4%
(10:15) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short middle to #8 D.Morrissette thrown to ILL00 broken up by #6 J.ClarkeSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
63.5%
(10:13) #92 J.Echeverria Lozano field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab), clock 10:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5965% → 63%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.2%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 4 yards gain to the ILL29 (#0 J.Hayden)Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
64.8%
(09:41) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #11 B.Trimble caught at ILL31, for 3 yards to the ILL32 (#7 D.Saunders), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
64.1%
(09:04) Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush left for 0 yards to the ILL32 (#94 R.Lora)Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-7
63.5%
(08:17) #81 L.Rau punt 43 yards to the PUR25 #3 X.Townsend return 0 yards to the PUR25, out of bounds at PUR25 PENALTY ILL Illegal Formation offsetting PUR Holding offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
62.6%
(08:09) #81 L.Rau punt 46 yards to the PUR22 fair catch by #3 X.Townsend at PUR22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:4339% → 55%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
61.0%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Gibson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR27 (#26 I.Kante; #43 J.Barna)Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+19
59.6%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #11 T.Harris caught at PUR46, for 19 yards to the PUR46, out of bounds at PUR46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.1%
(06:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #3 X.Townsend thrown to PUR45Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
58.3%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #3 X.Townsend caught at PUR49, for 7 yards to the ILL47 (#18 M.Muragin; #33 G.Beerman)Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
57.4%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ILL38 (#0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
56.1%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #22 A.Harris caught at ILL41, for 4 yards to the ILL34 (#1 X.Scott; #18 M.Muragin)Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+13
54.9%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #19 A.Waseem caught at ILL28, for 13 yards to the ILL21 (#45 R.Edmonson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
45.3%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete deep left to #11 T.Harris caught at ILL00, for 21 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16, 1ST DOWN #92 J.Echeverria Lozano kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4450% → 61%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
50.2%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #21 A.Laughery caught at ILL21, for 4 yards loss to the ILL21 (#5 C.Correa)Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
49.4%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #13 H.Clement thrown to ILL40Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+58
48.7%
(03:35) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to ILL45, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (#4 H.Hines) 15 yards from ILL21 to ILL36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
50.2%
(03:29) Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ILL46 (#13 J.Slaughter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
50.2%
(02:48) Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush left for 2 yards gain to the ILL48 (#2 J.Mangham)Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+19
49.3%
(02:04) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #13 H.Clement caught at PUR34, for 19 yards to the PUR33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
52.0%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #17 C.Dixon thrown to PUR27Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
51.7%
(01:52) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR34, for 8 yards to the PUR25 (#7 D.Saunders; #33 J.Lewis)Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+14
49.5%
(01:27) Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush left for 14 yards gain to the PUR11 (#11 K.Burgos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
51.5%
(00:59) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR07 (#13 J.Slaughter; #5 C.Correa)Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
60.5%
(00:21) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR00, for 7 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
54.7%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PUR26 (#52 P.Farrell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4356% → 54%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.3%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL27 (#58 B.Ishmail)Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
56.1%
(14:23) Shotgun #4 K.Houser sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ILL21 (#33 J.Lewis) PENALTY PUR Holding (#7 D.Saunders) 10 yards from ILL27 to ILL37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
56.2%
(14:00) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR48, for 19 yards to the PUR44 (#0 J.Hayden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
58.8%
(13:31) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR42 (#11 K.Burgos)Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
58.1%
(13:01) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #11 B.Trimble caught at PUR45, for 0 yards to the PUR42 (#2 J.Mangham)Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
56.8%
(12:23) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to PUR36Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
53.8%
(12:18) #81 L.Rau punt 31 yards to the PUR11 fair catch by #3 X.Townsend at PUR11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:0149% → 63%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
51.1%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR12 (#40 E.Rhea; #43 J.Barna)Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+12
50.9%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 12 yards gain to the PUR24 (#26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (#26 I.Kante) 15 yards from PUR24 to PUR39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
46.9%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush right for 2 yards loss to the PUR37 (#26 I.Kante), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+3
48.7%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR40 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
47.0%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #2 F.Ijeboi caught at PUR41, for 10 yards to the PUR50 (#6 J.Clarke; #10 J.Kreutz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
50
+1
43.3%
(09:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 1 yard gain to the ILL49 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
42.7%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #17 B.Owens caught at ILL49, for 6 yards to the ILL43 (#0 M.Resetich)Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
42.2%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush right for 3 yards gain to the ILL40 (#54 D.John), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
41.3%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete deep left to #19 A.Waseem caught at ILL20, for 24 yards to the ILL16 (#7 M.Bailey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
40.0%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #22 A.Harris thrown to ILL20 QB hurried by #90 C.JankiSimilar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
39.8%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL15 (#16 T.Heckel; #10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
40.6%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Morrissette thrown to ILL05 broken up by #90 C.JankiSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
37.3%
(06:05) #92 J.Echeverria Lozano field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab), clock 06:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:3941% → 35%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.0%
(06:04) #4 K.Houser rush left for 6 yards gain to the ILL31 (#20 W.Berglund)Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
41.6%
(05:26) #21 A.Laughery rush left for 8 yards gain to the ILL39 (#91 A.Solecki), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
41.2%
(04:52) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR46, for 17 yards to the PUR44, out of bounds at PUR44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
43.0%
(04:21) Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR41 (#5 C.Correa)Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
42.4%
(03:46) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #10 T.Robinson caught at PUR35, for 6 yards to the PUR35 (#7 D.Saunders)Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
42.7%
(03:26) #4 K.Houser rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR33 (#33 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
44.6%
(02:55) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at PUR29, for 11 yards to the PUR22 (#4 H.Hines), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
42.1%
(02:13) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR17 (#21 J.Denson Jr.; #33 J.Lewis)Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
41.7%
(01:38) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR15 (#21 J.Denson Jr.)Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-2
38.3%
(00:56) Shotgun #23 J.Anderson rush left for 2 yards loss to the PUR17 (#7 D.Saunders)Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 4
OPP 16
0
35.4%
(00:16) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Trimble thrown to PUR10 broken up by #97 W.Simms, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 5
OPP 17
0
35.4%
(00:13) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short middle to #11 B.Trimble thrown to PUR10 broken up by #97 W.Simms, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3371% → 69%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
29.1%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 2 yards gain to the PUR19 (#90 C.Janki)Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
29.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Magwood thrown to PUR25 broken up by #16 T.HeckelSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
30.5%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep left to #3 X.Townsend thrown to ILL40 PENALTY PUR Personal Foul declinedSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+6
31.3%
(14:48) #42 D.Drennan punt 48 yards to the ILL33 #0 M.Resetich return 6 yards to the ILL39 (#39 I.Needam)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1234% → 29%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
34.1%
(14:39) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL50, for 12 yards to the PUR49 (#7 D.Saunders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
36.1%
(13:56) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to PUR20 PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (#7 D.Saunders) 15 yards from PUR49 to PUR34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
39.0%
(13:50) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #10 T.Robinson caught at PUR11, for 34 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 13:43 PENALTY ILL Holding (#70 M.Matelau) 10 yards from PUR34 to PUR44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
34.7%
(13:42) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep right to #11 B.Trimble thrown to PUR15Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+9
34.5%
(13:38) Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush left for 9 yards gain to the PUR35 (#40 I.Jeffries; #23 T.Smith). #40 I.Jeffries injured on the playSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-5
32.1%
(13:09) Shotgun #4 K.Houser sacked for loss of 9 yards to the PUR44 (#5 C.Correa, #11 K.Burgos)Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
28.6%
(12:21) #81 L.Rau punt 35 yards to the PUR09 fair catch by #3 X.Townsend at PUR09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5970% → 77%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
29.8%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 0 yards to the PUR09 (#45 R.Edmonson; #52 P.Farrell)Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
27.9%
(11:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR12 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+3
27.1%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #3 X.Townsend caught at PUR12, for 3 yards to the PUR15 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
23.0%
(10:15) #42 D.Drennan punt 45 yards to the ILL40, out of bounds at ILL40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4920% → 33%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
20.2%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL41 (#5 C.Correa; #33 J.Lewis)Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
19.4%
(09:25) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short middle to #88 D.Stoffel thrown to PUR44Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+21
18.6%
(09:19) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR40, for 21 yards to the PUR38 (#2 J.Mangham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
21.5%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR36 (#0 J.Hayden)Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
20.9%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to PUR23Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
20.2%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short middle to #10 T.Robinson thrown to PUR20 broken up by #4 H.HinesSimilar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+54
33.1%
(08:18) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 08:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:2878% → 98%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
22.4%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #3 X.Townsend caught at PUR37, for 8 yards to the PUR47 (#7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+9
18.9%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at PUR45, for 9 yards to the ILL44 (#7 M.Bailey; #90 C.Janki), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
14.3%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep right to #19 A.Waseem thrown to ILL21 broken up by #1 X.ScottSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
14.3%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #11 T.Harris caught at ILL37, for 12 yards to the ILL32 (#6 J.Clarke; #7 M.Bailey), 1ST DOWN. #43 J.Barna injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
12.6%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete deep right to #5 C.Magwood caught at ILL02, for 31 yards to the ILL01, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.8%
(05:10) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL01 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.0%
(04:32) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:29. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #15 R.Browne rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:502% → 2%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.8%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #21 A.Laughery thrown to ILL22 QB hurried by #8 C.MaddenSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
1.8%
(04:17) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL39, for 19 yards to the ILL40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.9%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep left to #13 H.Clement thrown to PUR40 broken up by #4 H.HinesSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
1.9%
(03:53) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at PUR47, for 13 yards to the PUR47, out of bounds at PUR47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
1.9%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass intercepted by #13 J.Slaughter at PUR08, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2198% → 99%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
2.4%
(03:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 6 yards gain to the PUR14 (#10 J.Kreutz; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+1
1.8%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR15 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-3
1.6%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush right for 3 yards loss to the PUR12 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
1.5%
(03:09) #42 D.Drennan punt 54 yards to the ILL34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:222% → 15%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
1.6%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #10 T.Robinson caught at PUR48, for 18 yards to the PUR48 (#4 H.Hines; #2 J.Mangham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
1.6%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush left for 6 yards gain to the PUR42 (#5 C.Correa)Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
1.7%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #88 D.Stoffel caught at PUR30, for 12 yards to the PUR30 (#13 J.Slaughter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.4%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #13 H.Clement thrown to PUR20 QB hurried by #5 C.CorreaSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
1.1%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush right for 12 yards gain to the PUR18 (#32 D.Marable) PENALTY ILL Holding 10 yards from PUR30 to PUR40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
1.1%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush right for 0 yards to the PUR30, out of bounds at PUR30 PENALTY ILL Holding 10 yards from PUR30 to PUR40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+30
1.1%
(01:46) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep middle to #13 H.Clement caught at PUR17, for 30 yards to the PUR10 (#1 S.Bradford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
1.2%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Trimble thrown to PUR00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (#1 S.Bradford) 8 yards from PUR10 to PUR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.9%
(01:29) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #10 T.Robinson caught at PUR00, for 2 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:26, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3698% → 98%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
1.9%
(01:25) Kneel down by #15 R.Browne at PUR46 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-4
1.8%
(00:42) Kneel down by #15 R.Browne at PUR42 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:26
(01:29) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #10 T.Robinson caught at PUR00, for 2 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:26, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
+13.7
FG · Q4 8:15
(08:18) #37 E.Moczulski field goal attempt from 54 yards GOOD (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III), clock 08:15
+12.9
TD · Q4 4:29
(04:32) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:29. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #15 R.Browne rush attempt Successful
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com