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ND

Notre Dame 49 at Purdue 10

PUR
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:45 · (07:50) #39 J.Scaife punt 37 yards to the UND50, out of bounds at UND50
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior−28.3Home team on offense−41.2Score differential−27.2Garbage-time factor−11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:09: (04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at PUR01, for 27 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:09, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: (14:59) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 22 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +1.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:47: (05:49) Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush left for 1 yard gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:47 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q2 4:15: (04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 12 yards to the PUR15 (#95 B.Young), fumble by #15 R.Browne recovered by UND #34 D.Bowen at PUR15 #34 D.Bowen return 15 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:15 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:29: (00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #2 N.James Jr. caught at PUR03, for 3 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:29 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:52PUR 4th & 8 at PUR 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28ND 4th & 6 at ND 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:46PUR 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:18PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:46PUR 4th & 21 at PUR 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:18ND 4th & 1 at ND 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:48PUR 4th & 4 at ND 4, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:45ND 4th & 1 at ND 13, up 35
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:10PUR 4th & 11 at ND 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:19PUR 4th & 13 at PUR 22, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:26ND 4th & 6 at ND 24, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:38PUR 4th & 12 at PUR 36, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 4:09ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:47ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:29ND Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:30ND Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:05ND Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:06PUR Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:004% → 5%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
4.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 9 yards to the PUR16 (#95 B.Young)Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+3
4.3%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #3 X.Townsend caught at PUR18, for 3 yards to the PUR19 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
4.5%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #87 C.McCutchan caught at PUR23, for 8 yards to the PUR27 (#34 D.Bowen; #29 C.Gray)Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
4.7%
(12:59) #42 D.Drennan punt 50 yards to the UND23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1595% → 95%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
4.7%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at UND30, for 14 yards to the UND37 (#4 H.Hines), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.8%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to #1 J.Greathouse thrown to PUR30 broken up by #13 J.SlaughterSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
4.9%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the UND41 (#2 J.Mangham; #58 B.Ishmail)Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
5.0%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #14 M.Gilbert thrown to UND47 broken up by #7 D.SaundersSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
5.1%
(11:37) #39 J.Scaife punt 52 yards to the PUR07 #3 X.Townsend return 0 yards to the PUR07 (#33 M.Jeffery)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3DOWNS
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:305% → 7%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
5.1%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 5 yards gain to the PUR12 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
5.3%
(10:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete deep right to #5 C.Magwood thrown to PUR35Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+9
5.3%
(10:43) Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush right for 9 yards gain to the PUR21 (#3 J.Sneed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
5.5%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #19 A.Waseem caught at PUR27, for 6 yards to the PUR27 (#8 A.Shuler), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+5
5.7%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #2 F.Ijeboi caught at PUR32, for 5 yards to the PUR32 (#3 J.Sneed; #27 K.Viliamu-Asa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
5.8%
(09:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR36 (#7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
6.1%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #19 A.Waseem caught at PUR33, for 5 yards to the PUR41 (#2 D.McKinney), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
6.2%
(08:18) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PUR44 (#0 T.Gray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
6.4%
(07:36) PENALTY PUR False Start (#65 B.Brownfield) 5 yards from PUR44 to PUR39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+7
6.4%
(07:20) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 7 yards gain to the PUR46 (#8 A.Shuler), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
6.9%
(06:39) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #87 C.McCutchan caught at PUR49, for 4 yards to the PUR50 (#15 L.Moore), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 4
50
0
7.1%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #3 X.Townsend thrown to UND48 QB hurried by #27 K.Viliamu-AsaSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 4
50
+3
7.0%
(05:49) No Huddle #22 A.Harris rush right for 3 yards gain to the UND47 (#44 R.Dunham), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:2793% → 94%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
6.7%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the UND49 (#23 T.Smith; #0 J.Hayden)Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+17
6.9%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at PUR32, for 17 yards to the PUR34 (#13 J.Slaughter; #4 H.Hines), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
6.9%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain to the PUR27 (#20 W.Berglund)Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+27
6.0%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at PUR01, for 27 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:09, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:466% → 7%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.3%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short middle to #5 C.Magwood thrown to PUR31 broken up by #34 D.BowenSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.4%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #4 J.Gibson caught at PUR26, for 9 yards to the PUR34 (#4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
6.5%
(03:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Gibson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR36 (#5 B.Traore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
6.7%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Gibson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PUR41 (#5 B.Traore; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
7.0%
(02:34) Shotgun #4 J.Gibson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR45 (#88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
7.1%
(01:56) Shotgun #4 J.Gibson rush left for 1 yard loss to the PUR44 (#7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
7.1%
(01:23) #42 D.Drennan punt 42 yards to the UND14 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at UND14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:1393% → 94%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
7.0%
(01:17) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 3 yards gain to the UND17 (#21 J.Denson Jr.; #33 J.Lewis)Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+56
7.2%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UND25, for 56 yards to the PUR27 (#1 S.Bradford), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
6.8%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 5 yards gain to the PUR22 (#7 D.Saunders)Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
5.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 22 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:006% → 6%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.0%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR26 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
6.1%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #3 X.Townsend thrown to PUR45Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
6.0%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #19 A.Waseem caught at PUR39, for 20 yards to the PUR46 (#20 J.O'Brien; #29 C.Gray), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
6.4%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne rush left for 2 yards gain to the PUR48, out of bounds at PUR48Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-3
6.5%
(12:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 3 yards to the PUR45 (#88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-5
6.3%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 10 yards to the PUR35 (#5 B.Traore, #20 J.O'Brien)Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
6.0%
(11:51) #42 D.Drennan punt 50 yards to the UND15 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at UND15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 5:5194% → 97%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
6.1%
(11:45) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UND23 (#13 J.Slaughter; #21 J.Denson Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
6.1%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #7 T.Washington thrown to UND27Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
6.2%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UND24 (#92 C.Neal; #1 S.Bradford)Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
6.4%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND26 (#92 C.Neal; #33 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
6.2%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #88 J.Flanigan caught at UND31, for 9 yards to the UND35 (#7 D.Saunders; #5 C.Correa), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+10
6.2%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UND45 (#11 K.Burgos; #21 J.Denson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
6.3%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #87 C.Flanagan caught at PUR35, for 27 yards to the PUR28 (#29 D.Newsome), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
6.1%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #14 M.Gilbert thrown to PUR00 broken up by #4 H.Hines PENALTY PUR Offside (#11 K.Burgos) 5 yards from PUR28 to PUR23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+4
6.1%
(07:53) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 4 yards gain to the PUR19 (#94 R.Lora; #13 J.Slaughter)Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+4
6.1%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR15 (#20 W.Berglund; #0 J.Hayden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
6.2%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Graham thrown to PUR00 broken up by #1 S.BradfordSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
6.2%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #14 M.Gilbert thrown to PUR10 broken up by #5 C.CorreaSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+13
6.4%
(06:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Graham thrown to PUR00 PENALTY PUR Pass Interference (#1 S.Bradford) 13 yards from PUR15 to PUR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
6.2%
(06:22) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 1 yard gain to the PUR01 (#20 W.Berglund)Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.4%
(05:49) Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush left for 1 yard gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:47 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:225% → 2%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.7%
(05:46) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 2 yards gain to the PUR27 (#44 R.Dunham; #7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
4.7%
(05:07) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 0 yards to the PUR27 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
1.6%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 12 yards to the PUR15 (#95 B.Young), fumble by #15 R.Browne recovered by UND #34 D.Bowen at PUR15 #34 D.Bowen return 15 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:15 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:062% → 1%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
1.9%
(04:08) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at PUR12, for 9 yards to the PUR17 (#4 J.Ausberry; #20 J.O'Brien)Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+8
1.5%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #3 X.Townsend caught at PUR20, for 8 yards to the PUR25 (#5 B.Traore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.6%
(02:50) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #3 X.Townsend caught at PUR23, for 2 yards loss to the PUR23 (#2 D.McKinney), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
1.5%
(02:09) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #2 F.Ijeboi thrown to PUR20 QB hurried by #4 J.AusberrySimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
1.6%
(02:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right thrown to PUR41 QB hurried by #27 K.Viliamu-AsaSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+17
1.3%
(01:56) #42 D.Drennan punt 43 yards to the UND34 #6 J.Faison return 17 yards to the PUR49, out of bounds at PUR49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:1498% → 99%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
1.9%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 N.James Jr. caught at PUR47, for 5 yards to the PUR44 (#2 J.Mangham)Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+28
1.8%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #1 J.Greathouse caught at PUR16, for 28 yards to the PUR16, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
1.8%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the PUR10 (#0 J.Hayden; #2 J.Mangham)Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
1.6%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #2 N.James Jr. thrown to PUR00Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+7
1.7%
(00:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush middle for 7 yards gain to the PUR03 (#0 J.Hayden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.0%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #2 N.James Jr. caught at PUR03, for 3 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:29 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.8%
(00:28) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #19 A.Waseem caught at PUR21, for 3 yards to the PUR28 (#20 J.O'Brien; #2 D.McKinney)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #1 J.Greathouse thrown to UND48 broken up by #7 D.SaundersSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 0 yards to the UND25 (#0 J.Hayden; #40 I.Jeffries)Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
1.1%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass intercepted by #5 C.Correa at UND37 #5 C.Correa return 6 yards to the UND31 (#20 J.Walton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:111% → 1%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
1.1%
(14:11) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short left to #3 X.Townsend caught at UND29, for 3 yards to the UND28 (#3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
1.1%
(13:32) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #3 X.Townsend caught at UND24, for 4 yards to the UND24 (#20 J.O'Brien)Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+6
1.0%
(12:52) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 6 yards gain to the UND18 (#34 D.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.0%
(12:15) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Magwood thrown to UND00Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
1.0%
(12:09) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #8 D.Morrissette caught at UND15, for 9 yards to the UND09 (#8 A.Shuler), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
1.0%
(11:29) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND07 (#95 B.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.0%
(10:53) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Magwood thrown to UND00Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
1.0%
(10:48) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush left for 3 yards gain to the UND04 (#10 L.Thomas; #8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.8%
(10:02) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Magwood thrown to UND07 PENALTY PUR Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.8%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right thrown to UND00 QB hurried by #95 B.Young, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
1.1%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND06 (#94 R.Lora; #9 T.Lindsey)Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+5
1.0%
(09:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND11 (#23 T.Smith)Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+2
0.7%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the UND13 (#2 J.Mangham; #20 W.Berglund)Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
0.9%
(07:50) #39 J.Scaife punt 37 yards to the UND50, out of bounds at UND50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:251% → 1%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
50
+10
0.7%
(07:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 10 yards gain to the UND40 (#15 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
0.7%
(06:57) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at UND35, for 11 yards to the UND29 (#3 J.Sneed; #11 K.Keeley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
0.7%
(06:22) Shotgun #2 F.Ijeboi rush right for 2 yards loss to the UND31 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+5
0.6%
(05:41) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass incomplete short right to #2 F.Ijeboi thrown to UND32 PENALTY PUR Illegal Shift (#3 X.Townsend) 5 yards from UND31 to UND36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+5
0.6%
(05:37) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short right to #5 C.Magwood caught at UND31, for 5 yards to the UND31 (#3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+1
0.6%
(04:53) Shotgun #15 R.Browne pass complete short middle to #2 F.Ijeboi caught at UND33, for 1 yard to the UND30 (#3 J.Sneed; #95 B.Young)Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
0.6%
(04:10) #92 J.Echeverria Lozano field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #46 L.Raab), clock 04:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:25100% → 100%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
0.5%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 4 yards gain to the UND31 (#29 D.Newsome; #92 C.Neal)Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+6
0.5%
(03:25) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #22 A.Williams caught at UND32, for 6 yards to the UND37 (#5 C.Correa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.5%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the UND42 (#21 J.Denson Jr.; #97 W.Simms)Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+31
0.5%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep right to #6 J.Faison caught at PUR27, for 31 yards to the PUR27 (#4 H.Hines), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.4%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the PUR27 (#0 J.Hayden; #40 I.Jeffries)Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
0.4%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at PUR31, for 4 yards to the PUR23 (#13 J.Slaughter)Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+8
0.3%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #1 J.Greathouse caught at PUR15, for 8 yards to the PUR15 (#0 J.Hayden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
0.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 12 yards gain to the PUR03 (#13 J.Slaughter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.3%
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PUR02 (#21 J.Denson Jr.; #94 R.Lora)Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
Cooper Flanagan 2 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Spencer Porath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.2%
(13:29) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass complete short right to #22 A.Harris caught at PUR21, for 2 yards to the PUR27 (#1 D.Golden; #59 S.Sevillano Jr.) PENALTY PUR Holding (#59 M.Banuelos) 10 yards from PUR25 to PUR15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
0.2%
(13:07) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass complete short left to #10 J.Watson caught at PUR15, for 3 yards to the PUR18 (#25 B.Logan)Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+4
0.1%
(12:18) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PUR22 (#59 S.Sevillano Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
0.1%
(11:33) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Watson thrown to PUR40Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
0.1%
(11:27) #42 D.Drennan punt 78 yards to the UND00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
0.3%
(11:18) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush right for 4 yards gain to the UND24 (#21 J.Denson Jr.)Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
0.2%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 N.Grubbs pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Graham thrown to UND30 broken up by #1 S.BradfordSimilar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
0.2%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 N.Grubbs pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Bettis Jr. thrown to PUR40Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+1
0.2%
(10:34) #39 J.Scaife punt 50 yards to the PUR26 #3 X.Townsend return 1 yard to the PUR27 (#13 A.Pouncey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
0.1%
(10:26) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass complete short left to #6 A.Towns caught at PUR33, for 11 yards to the PUR38 (#19 M.Faraimo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
0.1%
(09:42) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at PUR44, for 6 yards to the PUR44 (#13 A.Pouncey)Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
0.1%
(09:00) Shotgun #4 J.Gibson rush middle for 0 yards to the PUR44 (#14 E.Ewetade)Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-8
0.1%
(08:15) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba sacked for loss of 8 yards to the PUR36 (#44 R.Dunham)Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+50
0.1%
(07:38) #42 D.Drennan punt 50 yards to the UND14 #1 D.Golden return for loss of 1 yard to the UND13 (#4 H.Hines; #25 H.Miller)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+26
0.2%
(07:37) Shotgun #10 N.Grubbs pass complete deep middle to #8 J.Bettis Jr. caught at UND35, for 26 yards to the UND39 (#21 J.Denson Jr.; #17 T.Wright), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.2%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND44 (#20 W.Berglund; #99 J.Hope)Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
0.2%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 7 yards gain to the PUR49 (#3 J.Goldsberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+44
0.1%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 44 yards gain to the PUR05 (#17 T.Wright), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
0.1%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR03 (#21 J.Denson Jr.; #99 J.Hope)Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
0.1%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 1 yard loss to the PUR04 (#97 W.Simms; #23 T.Smith)Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.1%
(04:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 N.Grubbs pass complete short right to #33 M.Jeffery caught at PUR00, for 4 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:05 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.1%
(04:03) Shotgun #4 J.Gibson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR27 fumbled by #4 J.Gibson at PUR25 forced by #59 S.Sevillano Jr. recovered by PUR #10 J.Watson at PUR27, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
0.1%
(03:21) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass complete short middle to #11 T.Harris caught at PUR34, for 19 yards to the PUR46 (#1 D.Golden; #25 B.Logan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
0.1%
(02:39) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PUR48 (#24 M.Zackery IV)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
0.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush left for 8 yards gain to the UND44 (#22 E.Long), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
0.1%
(01:54) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass complete short middle to #17 B.Owens caught at UND39, for 9 yards to the UND35 (#24 M.Zackery IV)Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
0.0%
(01:20) Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass incomplete short left to #17 B.Owens thrown to UND30 broken up by #16 K.KiaSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
0.0%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Harris rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND30 (#91 G.Sulfsted), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
0.1%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass incomplete short left to #17 B.Owens thrown to UND15 PENALTY UND Pass Interference (#24 M.Zackery IV) 15 yards from UND30 to UND15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
0.1%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 E.Chuba sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UND19 (#10 L.Thomas)Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+5
0.0%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 E.Chuba pass complete short right to #10 J.Watson caught at UND14, for 5 yards to the UND14 (#19 M.Faraimo)Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
0.0%
Bisi Owens 14 Yd pass from Evans Chuba (Jacobo Echeverria Lozano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.1%
(00:04) Kneel down by #10 N.Grubbs at UND23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 4:15
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 R.Browne sacked for loss of 12 yards to the PUR15 (#95 B.Young), fumble by #15 R.Browne recovered by UND #34 D.Bowen at PUR15 #34 D.Bowen return 15 yards to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:15 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
-3
TD · Q2 5:47
(05:49) Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush left for 1 yard gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:47 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
-2.8
TD · Q2 14:56
(14:59) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 22 yards gain to the PUR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
-1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com