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NEB

Nebraska 31 at Michigan State 13

MSU
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-6MSU 32.7%#91 K.Cunanan field goal attempt from32 yards GOOD (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55J.Wills), clock 10:00AWAY 17 - HOME 3 · Q2 10:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:00 · #91 K.Cunanan field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills), clock 10:00
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense−12.0Pregame prior−10.5Score differential−3.9Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:54: Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:54. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #91 K.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills) — NEB win probability +6.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:00: #91 K.Cunanan field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills), clock 10:00 — NEB win probability +6.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:07: Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:07, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky) — MSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:02: No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short middle to #30 V.Genatone caught at MSU11, for 13 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:02, 1ST DOWN #91 K.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills) — NEB win probability +13.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:05: V. Genatone run for 1 yd, for a TD (K. Cunanan KICK) — MSU win probability +33.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:10MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:10MSU 4th & 18 at NEB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:05MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:00NEB 4th & 7 at MSU 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:14NEB 4th & 16 at NEB 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:02MSU 4th & 9 at NEB 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:43NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:56NEB 4th & 1 at MSU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−2.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:27MSU 4th & 13 at NEB 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:06NEB 4th & 4 at MSU 13, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:45NEB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:54NEB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:07MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:05NEB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:5035% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.6%
#0 C.Edwards rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU33 (#5 A.Jones Jr.; #4 J.Conn)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
34.6%
#0 C.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU35 (#26 D.McDougle III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to MSU39 broken up by #7 A.MarshallSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
34.6%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU38 (#5 A.Jones Jr.; #0 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-9
34.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MSU29 (#40 D.Merritt)Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+12
35.6%
#9 R.Dakin punt 49 yards to the NEB22 #2 J.Barney Jr. return 12 yards to the NEB34 (#12 C.Stodghill)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5664% → 64%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
35.7%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Gilmer thrown to NEB45 QB hurried by #21 N.MartinezSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.7%
Shotgun #25 J.Rule rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NEB39 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
35.6%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short left to #8 L.Lindenmeyer thrown to NEB48 QB hurried by #96 E.Coenen and #44 C.WheatlandSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
36.1%
#83 A.Wilson punt 42 yards to the MSU19, out of bounds at MSU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 6:0436% → 40%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
36.1%
Shotgun #13 C.McCray rush left for 0 yards to the MSU19 (#0 O.Chambliss; #34 O.Stoudmire)Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
36.1%
#11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to MSU39Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+10
35.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #0 C.Edwards thrown to MSU26 PENALTY NEB Pass Interference (#10 V.Shavers Jr.) 10 yards from MSU19 to MSU29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
36.2%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU32 (#5 A.Jones Jr.; #24 D.Foster)Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+23
36.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #0 C.Edwards caught at MSU30, for 23 yards to the NEB45 (#16 D.Odem III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
37.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to NEB23 PENALTY NEB Holding (#16 D.Odem III) 10 yards from NEB45 to NEB35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
37.6%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush left for 1 yard gain to the NEB34 (#0 O.Chambliss; #5 A.Jones Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
37.6%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB32 (#34 O.Stoudmire; #93 K.Pietrzak)Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+10
38.6%
Shotgun #2 C.Fancher pass complete short left to #82 B.Parachek caught at NEB30, for 10 yards to the NEB22 (#26 D.McDougle III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
39.0%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NEB17 (#26 D.McDougle III; #0 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-3
39.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 3 yards to the NEB20 (#4 J.Conn)Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-10
38.8%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NEB30 (#96 W.Nwaneri)Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 18
OPP 30
+48
39.8%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 05:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2559% → 64%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.8%
Shotgun #25 J.Rule rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB27 (#13 I.Smith)Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
40.8%
Shotgun #25 J.Rule rush middle for 3 yards loss to the NEB24 (#55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
41.3%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NEB29 (#44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
42.9%
#83 A.Wilson punt 3 yards to the NEB32 blocked by #22 J.Yanachik recovered by MSU #7 M.Richard at NEB32 #7 M.Richard return 6 yards to the NEB26 (#49 D.King; #30 V.Genatone) PENALTY MSU Holding (#32 E.Young) 10 yards from NEB29 to NEB39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
41.4%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short right to #3 K.Gilmer caught at MSU46, for 17 yards to the MSU44 (#4 C.Brantley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.7%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short left to #8 L.Lindenmeyer caught at MSU45, for 0 yards to the MSU44 (#5 J.Hall; #7 M.Richard)Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
36.2%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete deep middle to #3 K.Gilmer caught at MSU00, for 44 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #91 K.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4037% → 37%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU25, for 2 yards to the MSU27 (#10 V.Shavers Jr.)Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
37.3%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush right for 0 yards to the MSU27 (#10 V.Shavers Jr.; #34 O.Stoudmire)Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
36.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to MSU38Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
36.6%
#9 R.Dakin punt 52 yards to the NEB21 fair catch by #2 J.Barney Jr. at NEB21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:1162% → 70%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
38.0%
Shotgun #25 J.Rule rush middle for 0 yards to the NEB21 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
38.0%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Gilmer thrown to NEB27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+17
38.7%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush right for 17 yards gain to the NEB38, out of bounds at NEB38, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (#4 C.Brantley) 15 yards from NEB38 to MSU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
36.5%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 19 yards gain to the MSU28 (#7 M.Richard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
35.9%
PENALTY NEB False Start (#51 J.Evans) 5 yards from MSU28 to MSU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
36.1%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU29 (#2 D.Vaught; #18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+25
36.1%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete deep right to #18 Q.Clark caught at MSU04, for 25 yards to the MSU04, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
35.9%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short right to #8 L.Lindenmeyer thrown to MSU03Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.7%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:54. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #91 K.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · -15 yds · 0:4333% → 33%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
33.1%
Shotgun #2 C.Fancher sacked for loss of 15 yards to the MSU15 (#96 W.Nwaneri)Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 25
OWN 15
0
32.8%
Shotgun #2 C.Fancher pass intercepted by #0 O.Chambliss at MSU29, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:1164% → 67%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
36.3%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short middle to #2 J.Barney Jr. caught at MSU32, for 12 yards to the MSU17 fumbled by #2 J.Barney Jr. at MSU28 forced by #4 C.Brantley recovered by NEB #51 J.Evans at MSU17, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
38.2%
#13 M.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU14 (#1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
38.2%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short left to #13 M.Nelson thrown to MSU14Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
38.7%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Barney Jr. thrown to MSU11Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
32.7%
#91 K.Cunanan field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills), clock 10:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:5331% → 42%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
30.5%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU24 (#0 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-2
30.7%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush right for 2 yards loss to the MSU22 (#16 D.Odem III)Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+24
30.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #82 B.Parachek caught at MSU44, for 24 yards to the MSU46, out of bounds at MSU46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
31.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NEB47 (#16 D.Odem III)Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
31.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NEB43 (#93 K.Pietrzak; #34 O.Stoudmire), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
31.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at NEB38, for 12 yards to the NEB31 (#8 D.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
32.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NEB26 (#2 C.Lenhardt; #24 D.Foster)Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+16
32.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #88 K.Rios caught at NEB22, for 16 yards to the NEB10 (#0 O.Chambliss; #28 C.Benning), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
32.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NEB02 (#28 C.Benning)Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.5%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:07, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD
18 plays · 74 yds · 5:5863% → 82%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
37.3%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short left to #22 I.Mozee caught at NEB23, for 10 yards to the NEB36 (#44 C.Wheatland), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
36.5%
Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush right for 8 yards gain (8) to the NEB44 (#7 M.Richard) PENALTY NEB Holding (#3 K.Gilmer) 10 yards from NEB44 to NEB34Similar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 12
OWN 34
+7
37.3%
Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush right for 7 yards gain to the NEB41 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
35.8%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short right to #3 K.Gilmer caught at NEB43, for 2 yards to the NEB43 (#14 A.Brinson IV)Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+4
35.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NEB47 (#98 D.Simmons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
35.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush left for 1 yard gain to the NEB48 (#55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
35.9%
PENALTY NEB False Start (#65 P.Mubenga) 5 yards from NEB48 to NEB43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+15
37.1%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short left to #13 M.Nelson thrown to NEB44 broken up by #52 M.Beeler PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#1 K.Soares, Jr.) 15 yards from NEB43 to MSU42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
34.7%
Shotgun #1 N.Hunter rush right for 1 yard loss to the MSU43 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+3
32.6%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU40, out of bounds at MSU40Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
32.2%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short middle to #8 L.Lindenmeyer caught at MSU33, for 15 yards to the MSU25 (#21 N.Martinez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
30.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU22 (#11 A.Lafaele)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
30.5%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU16 (#21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
31.5%
Shotgun #30 V.Genatone rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU13 (#12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
17.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short middle to #30 V.Genatone caught at MSU11, for 13 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:02, 1ST DOWN #91 K.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4679% → 78%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
21.4%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush right for 6 yards loss to the NEB19 (#5 J.Hall; #21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
21.7%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short middle to #8 L.Lindenmeyer thrown to NEB27 PENALTY NEB Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
22.2%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Gilmer thrown to NEB26 PENALTY NEB Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q3 14:14
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+2
22.2%
#83 A.Wilson punt 45 yards to the MSU36 muffed by #13 C.McCray at MSU36 recovered by MSU #13 C.McCray at MSU38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:1223% → 24%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
23.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU44, for 10 yards to the MSU48 (#22 V.Evans III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
23.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NEB45 (#22 V.Evans III)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
24.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #4 J.Patterson caught at NEB42, for 3 yards to the NEB42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
23.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NEB35 (#26 D.McDougle III)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+6
24.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #82 B.Parachek caught at NEB34, for 6 yards to the NEB29 (#26 D.McDougle III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
24.5%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NEB28 (#93 K.Pietrzak)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
24.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush left for 0 yards to the NEB28 (#1 J.Whittington; #22 V.Evans III)Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
23.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #13 C.McCray caught at NEB28, for 0 yards to the NEB28 (#26 D.McDougle III)Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
23.9%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 10:02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1976% → 76%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.7%
Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NEB26 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
24.0%
Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush middle for 0 yards to the NEB26 (#55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
24.2%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Gilmer thrown to NEB35 broken up by #4 C.BrantleySimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
23.9%
#83 A.Wilson punt 44 yards to the MSU30 #13 C.McCray return 5 yards to the MSU35 (#40 D.Merritt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2023% → 25%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
23.2%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU36 (#0 O.Chambliss; #4 J.Conn) PENALTY MSU Holding (#73 R.Young) 10 yards from MSU35 to MSU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+21
22.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU41, for 21 yards to the MSU46 (#26 D.McDougle III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
24.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #21 M.Parrish caught at MSU45, for 5 yards to the NEB49 (#2 C.Lenhardt), out of bounds PENALTY NEB Illegal Substitution (#96 W.Nwaneri) 5 yards from MSU46 to NEB49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 5
OPP 49
0
25.1%
#11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MSU39 (#8 D.Jones), fumble by #11 A.Milivojevic recovered by NEB #8 D.Jones at MSU39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:2780% → 77%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
20.4%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short left to #18 Q.Clark thrown to MSU35Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
21.5%
#10 A.Colandrea rush right for 8 yards gain to the MSU31 fumbled by #10 A.Colandrea at MSU31 forced by #14 A.Brinson IV, out of bounds at MSU31Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
20.7%
#10 A.Colandrea pass complete short right to #8 L.Lindenmeyer caught at MSU33, for 1 yard to the MSU30 (#12 C.Stodghill; #14 A.Brinson IV)Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
23.3%
#30 V.Genatone rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU30 (#18 D.Crawford; #44 C.Wheatland), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:3424% → 20%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #31 J.Savoury thrown to MSU25 QB hurried by #96 W.NwaneriSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
23.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU40, for 10 yards to the MSU40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
24.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU46, for 9 yards to the MSU49 (#22 V.Evans III; #0 O.Chambliss)Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+9
25.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NEB42 (#4 J.Conn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
25.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 0 yards to the NEB42 (#5 A.Jones Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
25.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush left for 11 yards gain to the NEB31 (#8 D.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep left to #31 J.Savoury thrown to NEB08. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #31 J.Savoury caught at NEB08, for 23 yards to the NEB08 (#26 D.McDougle III), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-2
27.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at NEB37, for 2 yards loss to the NEB33 (#22 V.Evans III)Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+2
24.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 1 yard to the NEB34 (#1 J.Whittington), fumble by #11 A.Milivojevic recovered by MSU #70 L.Vincic at NEB36 #70 L.Vincic return 2 yards to the NEB34 (#22 V.Evans III)Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+52
20.1%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD blocked by #96 W.Nwaneri (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 01:27, out of bounds at NEB34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:2278% → 59%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
21.9%
#10 A.Colandrea pass complete short left to #8 L.Lindenmeyer caught at NEB36, for 9 yards to the NEB43 (#14 A.Brinson IV), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
20.4%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NEB46 (#55 B.Roberts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
20.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short left to #18 Q.Clark caught at MSU45, for 9 yards to the MSU45, out of bounds at MSU45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+11
18.4%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 11 yards gain to the MSU34 (#2 D.Vaught; #14 A.Brinson IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
18.7%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSU27 (#44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
17.9%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU23 (#18 D.Crawford; #1 K.Soares, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
17.9%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU16 (#2 D.Vaught; #11 A.Lafaele)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+5
17.6%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short right to #4 J.Bonner caught at MSU19, for 5 yards to the MSU11 (#44 C.Wheatland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
17.4%
Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU07 (#21 N.Martinez; #98 D.Simmons)Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+6
7.4%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU01 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.5%
#4 J.Bonner rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU01 (#44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.7%
V. Genatone run for 1 yd, for a TD (K. Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19INT
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:225% → 5%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
5.0%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MSU08 (#44 R.Van Poppel)Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
4.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #6 F.Moore thrown to MSU25 QB hurried by #93 K.PietrzakSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+12
4.8%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU20, for 12 yards to the MSU20 (#16 D.Odem III), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU19, for 11 yards to the MSU19 (#16 D.Odem III))Similar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
5.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #21 M.Parrish caught at MSU21, for 11 yards to the MSU31 (#0 O.Chambliss), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
5.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU42, for 16 yards to the MSU47 (#10 V.Shavers Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
5.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at NEB48, for 13 yards to the NEB40 (#10 V.Shavers Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
5.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at NEB23, for 22 yards to the NEB18 (#4 J.Conn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
6.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to NEB02Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-3
5.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass intercepted by #7 A.Marshall at NEB13 #7 A.Marshall return 3 yards to the NEB16 (#5 S.Gash)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:3762% → 98%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
37.7%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush right for 0 yards to the NEB16 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
39.6%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB18 (#10 D.Malone)Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+9
38.4%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush right for 9 yards gain to the NEB27 (#44 C.Wheatland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
36.3%
Shotgun #22 I.Mozee rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB29 (#13 I.Smith; #52 M.Beeler)Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
10.0%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB31 (#44 C.Wheatland; #52 M.Beeler)Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+38
7.9%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete deep right to #3 K.Gilmer caught at MSU36, for 38 yards to the MSU31 (#4 C.Brantley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
6.4%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short left to #1 N.Hunter caught at MSU20, for 12 yards to the MSU19 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
6.2%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU16 (#44 C.Wheatland; #11 A.Lafaele)Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
6.0%
Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU16 (#8 T.Lisle)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+3
1.7%
#10 A.Colandrea rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU13 (#4 C.Brantley)Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 4
OPP 13
0
2.1%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Gilmer thrown to MSU00 broken up by #14 A.Brinson IV, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
1.0%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU16 (#42 D.Wacker; #86 M.Goldman)Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+2
1.0%
Shotgun #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU18 (#42 D.Wacker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:05
V. Genatone run for 1 yd, for a TD (K. Cunanan KICK)
+33.1
TD · Q2 0:02
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short middle to #30 V.Genatone caught at MSU11, for 13 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:02, 1ST DOWN #91 K.Cunanan kick attempt good (H: #37 K.Koch, LS: #55 J.Wills)
-13.6
TD · Q2 6:07
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NEB00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:07, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com