Try the model
IOWA

Iowa 20 at Michigan 19

MICH
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:10 · (11:10) #49 B.Everitt punt 42 yards to the U-M03
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+17.2Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin+0.1Score differential−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:44: (01:58) #97 J.Baggett kickoff 64 yards to the IOWA01 #22 B.Jackson return 99 yards to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:44 #92 C.Buhr kick attempt good (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz) — IOWA win probability +4.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 1:29: (01:31) #99 T.Butkowski field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford), clock 01:29 — MICH win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:02: (14:05) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at U-M01, for 16 yards to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:02, 1ST DOWN #92 C.Buhr kick attempt good (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz) — IOWA win probability +24.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:59: (12:11) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at IOWA15, for 49 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Underwood pass attempt failed — MICH win probability +20.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Reece Vander Zee 16 Yd pass from Hank Brown — IOWA win probability +83.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:10IOWA 4th & 1 at MICH 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42MICH 4th & 18 at MICH 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:58MICH 4th & 5 at IOWA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:04IOWA 4th & 11 at MICH 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:17MICH 4th & 1 at IOWA 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−1.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:11IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:05IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−2.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:13IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:29MICH 4th & 4 at IOWA 4, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.4%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−14.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:02IOWA 4th & 8 at MICH 44, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:22MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 13, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−3.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:33IOWA 4th & 6 at MICH 33, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%−2.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−7.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:46MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 40, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:58MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:44IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:02IOWA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:59MICH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3132% → 32%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
68.3%
(14:55) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #8 E.James caught at IOWA33, for 11 yards to the IOWA33 (#10 Z.Berry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
68.2%
(14:18) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA34 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+12
68.2%
(13:49) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA35, for 12 yards to the IOWA46 (#1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
67.9%
(13:10) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA50 (#7 C.Bracy; #8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 6
50
+3
67.8%
(12:46) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the U-M47 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
67.7%
(12:06) Shotgun #22 B.Jackson rush left for 2 yards gain to the U-M45 (#18 T.Bowles; #91 J.Lea'ea)Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
67.6%
(11:10) #49 B.Everitt punt 42 yards to the U-M03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:2168% → 67%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
67.8%
(11:08) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 7 yards gain to the U-M10 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+3
67.7%
(10:33) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 3 yards gain to the U-M13 (#8 D.Lee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
67.7%
(10:02) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #80 H.Hansen caught at U-M18, for 8 yards to the U-M21 (#8 D.Lee)Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+5
67.7%
(09:34) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 5 yards gain to the U-M26 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #33 C.Buffington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
67.6%
(09:03) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 3 yards gain to the U-M29 (#36 J.Montgomery; #33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
67.5%
(08:17) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the U-M33 (#3 J.Watson)Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
67.2%
PENALTY U-M False Start (#6 J.Buchanan) 5 yards from U-M33 to U-M28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+10
66.9%
(07:18) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 8 yards gain to the U-M36 (#2 T.Brown; #23 L.Van Kekerix) PENALTY U-M Holding (#70 B.Norton) 10 yards from U-M28 to U-M18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 18
OWN 18
0
66.7%
(06:51) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #12 S.Moa thrown to U-M25Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
66.5%
(06:47) #33 C.Brown punt 42 yards to the IOWA40 fair catch by #8 E.James at IOWA40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4034% → 33%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
66.5%
(06:41) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA43 (#1 R.Moore)Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
66.2%
(06:12) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to IOWA41Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
66.5%
(06:10) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #14 T.Diaz thrown to IOWA45Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
67.0%
(06:04) #49 B.Everitt punt 46 yards to the U-M11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:4867% → 72%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+27
66.9%
(05:54) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #3 A.Marsh caught at U-M20, for 27 yards to the U-M38 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
67.3%
(05:19) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 7 yards gain to the U-M45 (#33 C.Buffington; #23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+20
67.8%
(04:46) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep right to #3 A.Marsh caught at IOWA34, for 20 yards to the IOWA35, out of bounds at IOWA35, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
68.1%
(04:29) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 2 yards gain to the IOWA33 (#23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
68.1%
(04:04) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #42 J.Hoffman caught at IOWA33, for 3 yards to the IOWA30 (#36 J.Montgomery), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+9
67.7%
(03:32) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #6 J.Buchanan caught at IOWA24, for 9 yards to the IOWA21 (#8 D.Lee; #2 T.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
68.1%
(02:47) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA18 (#8 D.Lee; #2 T.Brown)Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
68.2%
(02:07) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to IOWA00 broken up by #3 J.WatsonSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
71.5%
(02:02) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at IOWA00, for 18 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:58, 1ST DOWN #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:3667% → 68%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
66.5%
(01:39) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 2 yards gain to the U-M20 (#96 B.Hawthorne)Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+22
66.4%
(01:11) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at U-M30, for 22 yards to the U-M42 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
67.4%
(00:36) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 4 yards gain to the U-M46 (#23 L.Van Kekerix; #2 T.Brown)Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
67.6%
(14:58) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at IOWA45, for 11 yards to the IOWA43 (#2 T.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IOWA Personal Foul (#2 T.Brown) 15 yards from IOWA43 to IOWA28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
68.2%
(14:33) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA26 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
68.2%
(13:50) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA23 (#8 D.Lee; #23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
67.6%
(13:06) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to IOWA16 broken up by #3 J.WatsonSimilar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
67.6%
(13:02) #99 T.Butkowski field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford), clock 12:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:3833% → 33%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
67.0%
(12:48) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA41 (#0 J.Hill)Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
66.2%
(12:15) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IOWA49 (#25 M.Curtis; #0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
65.8%
(11:34) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush left for 1 yard loss to the IOWA48 (#8 D.Nichols; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+13
66.1%
(11:13) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at U-M40, for 13 yards to the U-M39 (#0 J.Hill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
65.1%
(10:32) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the U-M38 (#12 N.Owusu-Boateng)Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-2
64.8%
(09:58) Shotgun #9 H.Brown sacked for loss of 2 yards to the U-M40 (#41 T.Boney)Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
65.6%
(09:15) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to U-M34 broken up by #10 Z.BerrySimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
66.9%
(09:12) #49 B.Everitt punt 40 yards to the U-M00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 5:4067% → 69%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.2%
(09:06) Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush left for 5 yards gain to the U-M25 (#36 J.Montgomery), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
67.3%
(08:26) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 5 yards gain to the U-M30 (#11 J.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
68.1%
(07:46) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep left to #6 J.Buchanan caught at IOWA40, for 32 yards to the IOWA38 (#6 Z.Lutmer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
70.3%
(07:07) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 8 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#2 T.Brown)Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
70.5%
(06:23) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to IOWA00 broken up by #3 J.WatsonSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+3
69.8%
(06:19) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IOWA27 (#23 L.Van Kekerix; #51 L.Gaffney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
70.5%
(05:33) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 2 yards to the IOWA29 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+4
70.4%
(04:51) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA25 (#97 I.Epenesa; #6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+7
69.8%
(04:05) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at IOWA18, for 7 yards to the IOWA18 (#11 J.Wallace)Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
69.0%
(03:21) #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA18 (#33 C.Buffington), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 2:0333% → 29%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
67.2%
(03:15) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush left for 7 yards gain to the IOWA25 (#94 N.Marshall)Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+1
66.2%
(02:40) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA25, for 1 yard to the IOWA26 (#0 J.Hill), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+9
67.1%
(02:03) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at IOWA31, for 9 yards to the IOWA35 (#13 A.Moa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.7%
(01:55) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme thrown to IOWA40Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
69.2%
(01:53) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA34, for 1 yard to the IOWA36 (#10 Z.Berry), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
69.9%
(01:23) Shotgun #9 H.Brown sacked for loss of 5 yards to the IOWA31 (#8 D.Nichols, #90 J.Daley)Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 14
OWN 31
-7
71.1%
(01:17) #49 B.Everitt punt 44 yards to the U-M25 #3 A.Marsh return for loss of 1 yard to the U-M24 (#6 Z.Lutmer) PENALTY IOWA Illegal Formation offsetting U-M Holding offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
71.1%
(01:09) #49 B.Everitt punt 44 yards to the U-M25 fair catch by #3 A.Marsh at U-M25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:2568% → 66%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.7%
(01:03) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #80 H.Hansen caught at U-M29, for 5 yards to the U-M30 (#3 J.Watson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
68.1%
(01:00) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #12 S.Moa thrown to IOWA45Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
67.2%
(00:55) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 6 yards gain to the U-M36 (#33 C.Buffington), out of bounds PENALTY U-M Holding (#53 J.Guarnera) 10 yards from U-M30 to U-M20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+2
66.5%
(00:47) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the U-M22 (#23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+1
66.2%
(00:42) #33 C.Brown punt 40 yards to the IOWA38 muffed by #8 E.James at IOWA38 recovered by IOWA #8 E.James at IOWA39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1030% → 29%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.3%
(00:35) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to U-M40Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
70.6%
(00:30) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to U-M25 broken up by #3 S.SnowdenSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.4%
(00:20) Shotgun #22 B.Jackson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA44 (#18 T.Bowles; #91 J.Lea'ea)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:3369% → 70%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.2%
(14:52) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 0 yards to the U-M36 (#36 J.Montgomery; #44 K.Merrieweather)Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+22
68.7%
(14:15) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at IOWA47, for 22 yards to the IOWA42 (#3 J.Watson; #33 C.Buffington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
71.1%
(13:44) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at IOWA37, for 5 yards to the IOWA37, out of bounds at IOWA37Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
71.1%
(13:16) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA37 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+19
70.3%
(12:40) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #5 S.Hiter caught at IOWA37, for 19 yards to the IOWA18 (#2 T.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
71.5%
(12:03) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA14 (#6 Z.Lutmer) PENALTY U-M Holding (#83 Z.Marshall) 10 yards from IOWA18 to IOWA28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+5
71.0%
(11:34) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #44 E.Owens caught at IOWA24, for 5 yards to the IOWA23 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+4
70.4%
(10:53) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 4 yards gain to the IOWA19 (#51 L.Gaffney; #6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
70.2%
(10:18) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #8 D.Lee at IOWA02, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:5633% → 30%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
67.5%
(10:14) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA04 (#13 A.Moa)Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
67.8%
(09:37) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA06 (#17 E.Etta)Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+9
69.0%
(09:00) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #22 B.Jackson caught at IOWA00, for 6 yards to the IOWA12 (#1 R.Moore) PENALTY IOWA Holding (#14 T.Diaz) 6 yards from IOWA12 to IOWA06Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+3
68.9%
(08:17) PENALTY IOWA False Start (#87 A.Ostrenga) 3 yards from IOWA06 to IOWA03. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+4
69.0%
(07:58) Shotgun #22 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA07 (#44 N.Staehling; #93 B.Patterson)Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 7
+39
69.9%
(07:20) #49 B.Everitt punt 39 yards to the IOWA46 #3 A.Marsh return for loss of 1 yard to the IOWA47 (#69 I.Speltz; #23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 5:3772% → 79%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
71.6%
(07:11) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 3 yards gain to the IOWA44 (#6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+17
71.6%
(06:43) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 17 yards gain to the IOWA27 (#2 T.Brown), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
72.6%
(06:02) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 9 yards gain to the IOWA18 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+2
72.6%
(05:28) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 2 yards gain to the IOWA16 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
72.4%
(04:54) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA14 (#23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
72.4%
(04:19) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IOWA07 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #2 T.Brown)Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
71.1%
(03:40) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IOWA05 (#2 T.Brown; #96 B.Hawthorne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.6%
(03:02) #19 B.Underwood rush right for 0 yards to the IOWA05 (#44 K.Merrieweather)Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
72.6%
(02:23) #23 J.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the IOWA04 (#23 L.Van Kekerix)Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
71.3%
(01:37) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to IOWA00Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
78.8%
(01:31) #99 T.Butkowski field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford), clock 01:29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2028% → 55%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.2%
(01:27) #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #14 T.Diaz thrown to IOWA40Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.4%
(01:24) #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IOWA30 (#8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+32
72.6%
(00:50) #9 H.Brown pass complete deep right to #14 T.Diaz caught at U-M43, for 32 yards to the U-M38 (#3 S.Snowden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.1%
(00:19) #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #48 Z.Ortwerth thrown to U-M31Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
68.2%
(00:17) #26 X.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the U-M37 (#99 B.Kanka)Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+21
68.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at U-M18, for 21 yards to the U-M16 (#1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
45.0%
(14:05) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at U-M01, for 16 yards to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:02, 1ST DOWN #92 C.Buhr kick attempt good (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5754% → 78%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.5%
(14:02) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short left to #80 H.Hansen thrown to U-M40Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.6%
(13:54) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at U-M37, for 14 yards to the U-M39 (#11 J.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
54.9%
(13:25) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the U-M43 (#97 I.Epenesa; #33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
56.9%
(12:47) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 8 yards gain to the IOWA49 (#33 C.Buffington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.5%
(12:16) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to IOWA10 QB hurried by #96 B.HawthorneSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+49
78.3%
(12:11) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at IOWA15, for 49 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Underwood pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:4730% → 29%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
(11:59) #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #28 K.Moulton caught at IOWA25, for 1 yard to the IOWA26 (#90 J.Daley), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.4%
(11:22) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 0 yards to the IOWA26 (#12 N.Owusu-Boateng) PENALTY U-M Face Mask (#95 T.Pierce) 15 yards from IOWA26 to IOWA41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
67.6%
(10:56) Shotgun #26 X.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the IOWA42 (#13 A.Moa; #95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
67.9%
(10:23) #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #87 A.Ostrenga caught at IOWA44, for 6 yards to the IOWA48 (#13 A.Moa; #18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+6
65.8%
(09:41) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at U-M48, for 6 yards to the U-M46 (#0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
64.2%
(09:03) #28 K.Moulton rush right for 2 yards gain to the U-M44 (#17 E.Etta)Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
66.4%
(08:24) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right to #28 K.Moulton thrown to U-M41 QB hurried by #7 C.BracySimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
67.3%
(08:20) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left thrown to U-M44 broken up by #7 C.Bracy PENALTY IOWA Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
71.4%
(08:14) #49 B.Everitt punt 43 yards to the U-M01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3281% → 82%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
81.0%
(08:00) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 5 yards gain to the U-M06 (#43 K.Brown)Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+5
82.6%
(07:21) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 5 yards gain to the U-M11 (#36 J.Montgomery; #23 L.Van Kekerix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
83.7%
(06:42) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 7 yards gain to the U-M18 (#33 C.Buffington; #6 Z.Lutmer)Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+5
84.3%
(05:59) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the U-M21 (#6 Z.Lutmer; #33 C.Buffington) PENALTY U-M Illegal Formation 5 yards from U-M18 to U-M13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
84.5%
(05:35) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #42 J.Hoffman thrown to U-M14 QB hurried by #13 D.CampbellSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
83.3%
(05:32) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to U-M13 broken up by #11 J.WallaceSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
82.4%
(05:30) #33 C.Brown punt 37 yards to the U-M50 fair catch by #8 E.James at IOWA50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4231% → 26%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
50
+13
69.0%
(05:24) #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #48 Z.Ortwerth caught at IOWA50, for 13 yards to the U-M37 (#0 J.Hill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
69.0%
(04:49) Shotgun #28 K.Moulton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the U-M31 (#18 T.Bowles; #7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
66.9%
(04:11) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #87 A.Ostrenga caught at U-M32, for 1 yard to the U-M30 (#1 R.Moore)Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+2
67.1%
(03:28) Shotgun #22 B.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the U-M28 (#94 N.Marshall; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+5
71.3%
PENALTY IOWA False Start (#64 L.Jones) 5 yards from U-M28 to U-M33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
74.2%
(02:37) #92 C.Buhr field goal attempt from 51 yards NO GOOD (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz), clock 02:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4089% → 94%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
89.0%
(02:33) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the U-M37 (#51 L.Gaffney)Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
92.0%
(02:14) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 1 yard gain to the U-M38 (#36 J.Montgomery)Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+2
92.6%
(02:11) Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the U-M40 (#33 C.Buffington)Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
93.7%
(02:00) #33 C.Brown punt 51 yards to the IOWA09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 1:3712% → 95%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
87.9%
(01:48) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #8 E.James caught at IOWA12, for 3 yards to the IOWA12, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
88.0%
(01:28) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #87 A.Ostrenga thrown to IOWA27Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+13
88.8%
(01:24) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #14 T.Diaz caught at IOWA24, for 13 yards to the IOWA25 (#4 C.Taylor; #0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.0%
(01:10) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short right to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at IOWA29, for 5 yards to the IOWA30 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
86.3%
(00:54) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short left to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at IOWA41, for 12 yards to the IOWA42 (#3 S.Snowden), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
84.9%
(00:40) Shotgun #9 H.Brown rush left for 3 yards gain to the IOWA45 (#17 E.Etta)Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
88.3%
(00:32) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short left to #14 T.Diaz thrown to U-M40 broken up by #10 Z.BerrySimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
88.9%
PENALTY IOWA False Start (#58 K.Pieper) 5 yards from IOWA45 to IOWA40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+15
90.4%
(00:26) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to IOWA45 broken up by #0 J.Hill PENALTY U-M UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#10 Z.Berry) 15 yards from IOWA40 to U-M45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.3%
(00:18) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete short middle to #87 A.Ostrenga thrown to U-M30Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
87.8%
(00:17) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass incomplete deep right to #14 T.Diaz thrown to U-M10Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+29
89.0%
(00:11) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete deep middle to #87 A.Ostrenga caught at U-M16, for 29 yards to the U-M16 (#3 S.Snowden; #1 R.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
5.2%
Reece Vander Zee 16 Yd pass from Hank Brown Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Reece Vander Zee 16 Yd pass from Hank Brown
-83.7
TD · Q4 14:02
(14:05) Shotgun #9 H.Brown pass complete short middle to #2 R.Vander Zee caught at U-M01, for 16 yards to the U-M00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:02, 1ST DOWN #92 C.Buhr kick attempt good (H: #35 T.Philpott, LS: #69 I.Speltz)
-24
TD · Q4 11:59
(12:11) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at IOWA15, for 49 yards to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:59, 1ST DOWN #19 B.Underwood pass attempt failed
+20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com