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Northwestern 23 at Indiana 29

IU
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:03 · (09:05) #92 N.Dugandzic punt 31 yards to the IND10 fair catch by #80 C.Becker at IND10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Pregame prior+26.3Home team on offense+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−0.6Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:34: (06:40) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at IND00, for 4 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick) — NU win probability +10.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:54: (15:00) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #17 G.Wilde caught at IND00, for 8 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY IND Pass Interference (#22 J.Sharpe) #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY IND Pass Interference (#22 J.Sharpe) 1 yard from IND03 to IND02. NO PLAY #0 A.Chiles rush attempt failed — NU win probability +20.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:39: (09:45) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the NW 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:39 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #93 Q.Warren, LS: #55 D.Clausen) — IU win probability +15.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:10: (05:17) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:10 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick) — NU win probability +31.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 0:58: (01:01) #90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 00:58 — NU win probability +19.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:56IU 4th & 5 at NU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:25IU 4th & 1 at NU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:55IU 4th & 6 at NU 42, up 2
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:48NU 4th & 14 at NU 4, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:06IU 4th & 6 at NU 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:03NU 4th & 6 at IU 41, down 5
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:45NU 4th & 28 at NU 47, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:55NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:29IU 4th & 17 at IU 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:34NU 4th & 4 at IU 4, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:06IU 4th & 4 at NU 4, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−11.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 5:04IU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:34NU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:54NU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:39IU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:10NU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:56IU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1DOWNS
21 plays · 67 yds · 7:2787% → 85%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
87.1%
PENALTY IND Illegal Snap (#74 B.Lynch) 5 yards from IND32 to IND27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+5
87.1%
PENALTY IND Illegal Snap (#74 B.Lynch) 5 yards from IND27 to IND22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+33
87.1%
(14:52) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush left for 33 yards gain to the NW 45 (#47 M.Kilbane; #7 O.Adeyi), 1ST DOWN. #13 J.Fussell injured on the playSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
87.0%
(14:26) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at NW 42, for 3 yards to the NW 42 (#21 D.Walters)Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
86.9%
(13:52) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #11 N.Marsh thrown to NW 30 QB hurried by #3 B.DeasfernandesSimilar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
86.8%
(13:49) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NW 40 (#32 M.Smith; #21 D.Walters)Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+6
86.6%
(13:07) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at NW 34, for 6 yards to the NW 34 (#7 O.Adeyi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
86.6%
(12:30) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NW 35 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
86.5%
(11:57) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #11 N.Marsh thrown to NW 17Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+14
86.3%
(11:52) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #4 D.Chandler caught at NW 30, for 14 yards to the NW 21 (#21 D.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
86.3%
(11:13) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush left for 5 yards gain to the NW 16 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
86.2%
(10:37) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NW 12 (#6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
85.9%
(10:02) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the NW 08 (#2 K.McKinzie; #6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
86.0%
(09:22) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 3 yards loss to the NW 11 (#95 M.Mayne; #91 C.O'Rourke)Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
85.7%
(08:46) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the NW 07 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
85.6%
(08:08) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NW 01 (#47 M.Kilbane; #21 D.Walters)Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.9%
(07:27) #1 T.Richard rush left for 0 yards to the NW 01 (#34 P.Roth), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
85.3%
(07:25) Northwestern rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NW 00 fumbled by Northwestern at NW 00 recovered by NW #0 A.Chiles at NW 00 (#17 D.Ndukwe). #17 D.Ndukwe SAFETY, clock 07:20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:1385% → 85%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
85.2%
(07:16) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the IND33 (#2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
85.1%
(06:38) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep right to #80 C.Becker thrown to NW 20Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+21
84.9%
(06:32) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #80 C.Becker caught at IND46, for 21 yards to the NW 46 (#4 M.Pate; #21 D.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
85.4%
(05:45) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush right for 4 yards gain to the NW 42 (#2 K.McKinzie; #21 D.Walters)Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
85.3%
(05:09) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #11 N.Marsh thrown to NW 35Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
85.1%
(05:06) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep middle to #80 C.Becker thrown to NW 00Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
84.8%
(05:00) #19 B.Gowers punt 34 yards to the NW 08 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NW 08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:0016% → 15%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
84.5%
(04:55) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NW 09 (#9 S.Daley)Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+4
84.4%
PENALTY NW False Start (#73 D.McGuire) 4 yards from NW 09 to NW 05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+2
84.4%
PENALTY NW False Start (#77 I.Cotton) 2 yards from NW 05 to NW 03. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 15
OWN 3
-1
84.8%
(04:15) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NW 02 (#17 D.Ndukwe; #95 T.Tucker)Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 16
OWN 2
+2
84.8%
(03:36) #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NW 04 (#5 R.Hardy; #9 S.Daley)Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 14
OWN 4
0
84.9%
(02:58) #92 N.Dugandzic punt 72 yards to the IND24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:4085% → 82%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
84.7%
(02:46) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush left for 2 yards gain to the IND26 (#4 M.Pate) PENALTY IND Holding (#62 D.Evans) 10 yards from IND24 to IND14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+3
84.5%
(02:25) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush right for 3 yards gain to the IND17 (#3 B.Deasfernandes)Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+6
84.3%
(01:46) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #85 A.Barker caught at IND19, for 6 yards to the IND23 (#4 M.Pate)Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+16
84.1%
(01:03) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush left for 16 yards gain to the IND39, out of bounds at IND39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
84.7%
(00:24) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush right for 14 yards gain to the NW 47 (#2 K.McKinzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
85.0%
(14:58) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush left for 18 yards gain to the NW 29 (#47 M.Kilbane), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. #21 D.Walters injured on the playSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
85.1%
(14:28) Shotgun #1 T.Richard rush left for 2 yards gain to the NW 27 (#24 J.Johnson), out of bounds. #1 T.Richard injured on the playSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
85.0%
(13:55) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #29 L.Beebe Jr. caught at NW 31, for 2 yards to the NW 25 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #54 T.Gant), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
84.6%
(13:18) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #8 T.Morris thrown to NW 08 QB hurried by #47 M.KilbaneSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
81.5%
(13:10) #15 N.Radicic field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #93 Q.Warren, LS: #55 D.Clausen), clock 13:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:5215% → 15%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.7%
(13:04) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #84 L.Dehnicke caught at NW 25, for 11 yards to the NW 36 (#6 P.Zachman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.5%
(12:28) #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short right to #10 R.Ahumaraeze thrown to NW 46 QB hurried by #9 S.DaleySimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
84.6%
(12:21) #27 G.Sawchuk rush left for 1 yard gain to the NW 37 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-8
84.8%
(11:41) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 8 yards to the NW 29 (#9 S.Daley), fumble by #0 A.Chiles, out of bounds at NW 29 PENALTY IND Personal Foul (#95 T.Tucker) 15 yards from NW 29 to NW 44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
85.2%
(10:57) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush right for 6 yards gain to the NW 50 (#2 B.Baldwin Jr.; #90 J.Hjelle)Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 4
50
+5
84.8%
(10:30) #27 G.Sawchuk rush left for 5 yards gain to the IND45 (#5 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
84.7%
(09:51) #27 G.Sawchuk rush left for 4 yards gain to the IND41 (#5 R.Hardy)Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
84.6%
(09:16) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #19 D.Wagner thrown to IND45 QB hurried by #97 M.Landino and #17 D.NdukweSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
84.8%
(09:11) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #10 R.Ahumaraeze thrown to IND30Similar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
85.0%
(09:05) #92 N.Dugandzic punt 31 yards to the IND10 fair catch by #80 C.Becker at IND10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:5182% → 92%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
81.5%
(09:01) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #11 N.Marsh caught at IND15, for 11 yards to the IND21 (#7 O.Adeyi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
81.4%
(08:29) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the IND26, out of bounds at IND26Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
81.8%
(07:49) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete deep left to #7 S.Preston thrown to NW 27 PENALTY NW Pass Interference (#7 O.Adeyi) 15 yards from IND26 to IND41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
82.4%
(07:42) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 S.Preston caught at IND46, for 9 yards to the IND50 (#7 O.Adeyi), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 1
50
+9
82.5%
(07:06) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #7 S.Preston caught at NW 45, for 9 yards to the NW 41 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
82.4%
(06:26) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #11 N.Marsh caught at NW 24, for 17 yards to the NW 24 (#7 O.Adeyi), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
82.6%
(05:50) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at NW 11, for 16 yards to the NW 08 (#4 M.Pate), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
91.7%
(05:07) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #11 N.Marsh caught at NW 00, for 8 yards to the NW 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:04 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #93 Q.Warren, LS: #55 D.Clausen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:4810% → 10%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
89.7%
(04:56) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #86 A.Honig caught at NW 15, for 21 yards to the NW 37 (#5 R.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.5%
(04:19) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #5 C.Komolafe caught at NW 38, for 3 yards to the NW 40 (#1 A.Ferrell)Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
87.3%
(03:35) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NW 41 (#46 I.Jones; #8 J.Burnham)Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+13
89.4%
(03:09) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #84 L.Dehnicke caught at NW 46, for 13 yards to the IND46 (#6 P.Zachman; #1 A.Ferrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
88.7%
(02:28) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #19 D.Wagner caught at IND41, for 8 yards to the IND38 (#6 P.Zachman)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
88.3%
(01:58) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush middle for 3 yards gain to the IND35 (#9 S.Daley; #91 B.Smythe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
88.0%
(01:33) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush left for 3 yards gain to the IND32 (#5 R.Hardy), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-21
87.8%
(01:28) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left thrown to NW 46 QB hurried by #2 B.Baldwin Jr. PENALTY NW Intentional Grounding (#0 A.Chiles)Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 28
OWN 47
0
89.6%
(00:58) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short middle to #19 D.Wagner thrown to IND36Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 28
OWN 47
0
89.7%
(00:52) #92 N.Dugandzic punt 38 yards to the IND15 fair catch by #80 C.Becker at IND15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
92.5%
(00:44) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND17 (#47 M.Kilbane)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5112% → 11%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at NW 30, for 5 yards to the NW 30 (#2 B.Baldwin Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
87.7%
(14:21) #0 A.Chiles rush right for 1 yard gain to the NW 31 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
87.9%
(13:40) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 7 yards to the NW 24 (#97 M.Landino)Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
88.6%
(12:59) #92 N.Dugandzic punt 39 yards to the IND37 fair catch by #80 C.Becker at IND37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1391% → 90%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
90.6%
(12:54) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND39 (#47 M.Kilbane; #15 B.Flakes)Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
90.8%
(12:17) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #29 L.Beebe Jr. thrown to IND42Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-9
90.3%
(12:12) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 9 yards to the IND30 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
89.7%
(11:35) #19 B.Gowers punt 45 yards to the NW 25 fair catch by #19 D.Wagner at NW 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5511% → 21%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.2%
PENALTY NW False Start (#84 L.Dehnicke) 5 yards from NW 25 to NW 20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
89.3%
(11:29) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left thrown to NW 20 QB hurried by #9 S.Daley and #95 T.TuckerSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
89.5%
(11:24) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NW 22 (#18 K.Wyatt; #9 S.Daley)Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
89.7%
(10:43) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 15 yards gain to the NW 37 (#9 S.Daley; #1 A.Ferrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
88.9%
(09:54) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep left to #84 L.Dehnicke caught at IND43, for 20 yards to the IND43, out of bounds at IND43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
88.1%
(09:30) Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 11 yards gain to the IND32 (#6 P.Zachman), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IND Face Mask (#91 B.Smythe) 15 yards from IND32 to IND17, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
86.9%
(09:09) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #84 L.Dehnicke caught at IND16, for 12 yards to the IND05 (#46 I.Jones; #13 Q.Sanks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
87.1%
(08:28) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles sacked for loss of 7 yards to the IND12 (#12 T.Osunsanmi)Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
87.5%
(07:48) #0 A.Chiles rush right for 3 yards gain to the IND09 (#6 P.Zachman). #0 A.Chiles injured on the playSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
89.1%
(07:24) Shotgun #27 G.Sawchuk rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IND04 (#46 I.Jones; #13 Q.Sanks)Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.0%
(06:40) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at IND00, for 4 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 90 yds · 4:2582% → 90%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
81.8%
(06:31) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #80 C.Becker thrown to IND12 PENALTY NW Pass Interference (#6 R.Fitzgerald) 6 yards from IND06 to IND12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
81.9%
(06:27) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at IND31, for 22 yards to the IND34 (#7 O.Adeyi), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
82.3%
(05:45) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #11 N.Marsh caught at IND40, for 7 yards to the IND41 (#4 M.Pate)Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
83.8%
(05:13) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short left to #11 N.Marsh thrown to IND45 broken up by #24 J.JohnsonSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+6
83.0%
(05:11) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #4 D.Chandler caught at IND45, for 6 yards to the IND47 (#4 M.Pate), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
83.6%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 20 yards gain to the NW 33 (#21 D.Walters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
84.8%
(04:04) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete deep right to #80 C.Becker caught at NW 11, for 23 yards to the NW 10 (#4 M.Pate), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
84.7%
(03:31) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the NW 08 (#5 D.Kirks; #7 O.Adeyi)Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
84.7%
(02:50) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NW 04 (#95 M.Mayne; #6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.7%
(02:12) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short right to #80 C.Becker thrown to NW 00 broken up by #7 O.AdeyiSimilar
Q3 2:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
90.0%
(02:07) #15 N.Radicic field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #93 Q.Warren, LS: #55 D.Clausen), clock 02:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0111% → 35%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
88.7%
(02:03) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at NW 38, for 18 yards to the NW 43 (#1 A.Ferrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
87.9%
(01:31) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep right to #84 L.Dehnicke caught at IND37, for 33 yards to the IND24 (#6 P.Zachman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
85.0%
(01:06) Shotgun #5 C.Komolafe rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND22 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+10
84.9%
(00:25) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #84 L.Dehnicke caught at IND15, for 10 yards to the IND12 (#12 T.Osunsanmi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
84.9%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #17 G.Wilde caught at IND10, for 4 yards to the IND08 (#5 R.Hardy)Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
64.8%
(15:00) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #17 G.Wilde caught at IND00, for 8 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY IND Pass Interference (#22 J.Sharpe) #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY IND Pass Interference (#22 J.Sharpe) 1 yard from IND03 to IND02. NO PLAY #0 A.Chiles rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1573% → 94%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
72.9%
(14:54) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover sacked for loss of 13 yards to the IND12 (#24 J.Johnson) PENALTY IND Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+9
72.5%
(14:36) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #11 N.Marsh caught at IND20, for 9 yards to the IND21 (#4 M.Pate)Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+5
71.2%
(13:57) PENALTY IND False Start 5 yards from IND21 to IND16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+15
72.1%
(13:45) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short left to #29 L.Beebe Jr. caught at IND10, for 7 yards loss to the IND09 (#32 M.Smith) PENALTY NW Face Mask (#32 M.Smith) 15 yards from IND16 to IND31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
73.9%
(13:35) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short right to #80 C.Becker caught at IND37, for 7 yards to the IND38 (#7 O.Adeyi)Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
77.4%
(12:59) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short middle to #80 C.Becker thrown to IND50 broken up by #2 K.McKinzieSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
75.7%
(12:56) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass complete short middle to #8 T.Morris caught at IND43, for 5 yards to the IND43 (#33 B.Brus; #2 K.McKinzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
77.5%
(12:21) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 6 yards gain to the IND49 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
77.9%
(11:38) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the NW 48 (#54 T.Gant; #2 K.McKinzie)Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+39
76.8%
(11:04) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 39 yards gain to the NW 09 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
79.0%
(10:19) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NW 04 (#55 D.Roberts; #6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.4%
(09:45) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the NW 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:39 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #93 Q.Warren, LS: #55 D.Clausen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:258% → 40%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.1%
(09:35) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush left for 4 yards gain to the NW 26 fumbled by #0 A.Chiles at NW 26 forced by #9 S.Daley, out of bounds at NW 26Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+41
91.8%
(08:55) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete deep middle to #84 L.Dehnicke caught at IND33, for 41 yards to the IND33 (#6 P.Zachman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
89.4%
(08:07) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #17 G.Wilde caught at IND17, for 17 yards to the IND16 (#6 P.Zachman; #22 J.Sharpe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
89.9%
(07:29) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #41 R.Preckel caught at IND13, for 4 yards to the IND12 (#5 R.Hardy)Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
89.9%
(06:48) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 2 yards gain to the IND10 (#12 T.Osunsanmi; #5 R.Hardy). #5 R.Hardy injured on the playSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+2
90.4%
(06:19) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush left for 2 yards gain to the IND08 (#95 T.Tucker; #12 T.Osunsanmi) PENALTY IND Holding (#12 T.Osunsanmi) 4 yards from IND08 to IND04, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
90.7%
(05:59) Shotgun #6 J.Himon II rush left for 3 yards loss to the IND07 (#12 T.Osunsanmi), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.8%
(05:25) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete short left to #19 D.Wagner thrown to IND00Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
59.7%
(05:17) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:10 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1478% → 98%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+70
78.2%
(05:10) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush left for 70 yards gain to the NW 05 (#6 R.Fitzgerald), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
83.6%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NW 01 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.5%
(03:49) No Huddle #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the NW 01 (#33 B.Brus)Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.7%
(03:01) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover pass incomplete short middle to #11 N.Marsh thrown to NW 00 PENALTY NW Pass Interference (#3 B.Deasfernandes), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.8%
(02:59) Shotgun #10 J.Hoover rush left for 0 yards to the NW 01 (#2 K.McKinzie; #6 R.Fitzgerald)Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.5%
(02:38) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the NW 01 (#6 R.Fitzgerald; #24 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
(02:00) #10 J.Hoover rush left for 1 yard gain to the NW 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #93 Q.Warren, LS: #55 D.Clausen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:584% → 24%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
(01:56) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #10 R.Ahumaraeze caught at NW 33, for 0 yards to the NW 25 PENALTY NW Holding (#5 C.Komolafe) 10 yards from NW 25 to NW 15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
96.6%
(01:52) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #19 D.Wagner caught at NW 25, for 8 yards to the NW 23 (#46 I.Jones)Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
96.6%
(01:33) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #86 A.Honig caught at NW 38, for 15 yards to the NW 38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
96.2%
(01:27) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #10 R.Ahumaraeze caught at IND45, for 17 yards to the IND45 (#1 A.Ferrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.0%
(01:20) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete deep right to #17 G.Wilde thrown to IND15Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
96.1%
(01:14) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short left to #19 D.Wagner caught at IND42, for 3 yards to the IND42 (#6 P.Zachman), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+18
96.0%
(01:10) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles pass complete short right to #86 A.Honig caught at IND24, for 18 yards to the IND24 (#1 A.Ferrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.9%
(01:05) #0 A.Chiles pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+42
75.8%
(01:01) #90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 00:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19END OF HALF
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:1697% → 97%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
97.0%
(00:56) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NW 32 (#3 B.Deasfernandes; #29 J.Stevens Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+2
97.2%
(00:52) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NW 30 (#54 T.Gant)Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
97.3%
(00:46) Shotgun #29 L.Beebe Jr. rush right for 4 yards gain to the NW 26 (#2 K.McKinzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
97.3%
Kneel down by #10 J.Hoover at NW 27 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:10
(05:17) Shotgun #0 A.Chiles rush middle for 7 yards gain to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:10 #90 J.Kleather kick attempt good (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick)
-31.1
TD · Q4 14:54
(15:00) #0 A.Chiles pass complete short middle to #17 G.Wilde caught at IND00, for 8 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:54, 1ST DOWN #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY IND Pass Interference (#22 J.Sharpe) #0 A.Chiles pass attempt failed PENALTY IND Pass Interference (#22 J.Sharpe) 1 yard from IND03 to IND02. NO PLAY #0 A.Chiles rush attempt failed
-20.1
FG · Q4 0:58
(01:01) #90 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #94 H.Helms, LS: #60 E.Boutorwick), clock 00:58
-19.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com