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BUF

Buffalo 13 at Penn State 55

PSU
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:32 · #90 E.Stumpf punt 54 yards to the PSU13 #2 Z.Robinson return 11 yards to the PSU24, out of bounds at PSU24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+40.8Home team on offense+14.6Score differential+9.4Blowout margin+0.5Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:19: Andrew Rappleyea 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 1:39: #31 O.Hautanen field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever), clock 01:39 — BUF win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 14:14: #94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 14:14 — PSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:47: No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Howard rush left for 20 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick) — PSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:31: Koby Howard 70 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:31BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:53PSU 4th & 3 at BUF 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:33BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:53BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:57PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:39BUF 4th & 4 at PSU 4, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:14PSU 4th & 7 at BUF 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:41BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:32BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:38PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 42, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:17BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 15, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:36PSU 4th & 15 at BUF 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:40BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:44BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 33, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:39BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:51PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 36, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:16BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 27, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:27PSU 4th & 1 at BUF 1, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:43BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 9, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:00PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:19PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:47PSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:31PSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:29PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:14PSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:31PSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:01BUF Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BUF27 (#1 I.Ezeogu; #92 S.Taupaki)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
98.7%
Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF28 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.7%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short middle to #5 C.Walker thrown to BUF35 broken up by #13 T.RojasSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+38
98.6%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 47 yards to the PSU25 #2 Z.Robinson return 38 yards to the BUF37 (#90 E.Stumpf), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
98.6%
Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #84 G.Burkle caught at BUF34, for 4 yards to the BUF33, out of bounds at BUF33Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF30 (#99 C.Evans)Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 0 yards to the BUF30 (#17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
98.5%
#94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 11:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:202% → 2%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BUF27 (#33 A.McPherson; #3 J.Patton)Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
98.5%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #8 J.Gathings caught at BUF31, for 4 yards to the BUF31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
98.5%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Walker thrown to BUF34 broken up by #4 J.CooperSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.3%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 50 yards to the PSU19 #2 Z.Robinson return 0 yards to the PSU19, out of bounds at PSU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3398% → 98%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU23 (#33 J.Owens; #97 C.Climes)Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+54
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Sowell thrown to PSU35, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (#3 O.Bridges) 15 yards from PSU23 to PSU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
98.3%
#1 J.Peoples rush right for 9 yards gain to the PSU47 (#99 C.Evans; #33 J.Owens)Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+31
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep middle to #6 K.Howard caught at BUF24, for 31 yards to the BUF22 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush left for 6 yards gain to the BUF16 (#4 R.Davis), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+16
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush right for 16 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:00, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #4 M.Burch caught at BUF24, for 1 yard to the BUF26 (#7 Z.Tracy)Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
98.1%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 6 yards loss to the BUF20 fumbled by #7 J.Wright at BUF23 forced by #10 C.Bacon recovered by PSU #1 I.Ezeogu at BUF20, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:5998% → 99%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #6 K.Howard caught at BUF07, for 14 yards to the BUF06 (#3 O.Bridges), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #6 K.Howard thrown to BUF00Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
98.2%
#21 C.Hansen rush left for 3 yards gain to the BUF03 (#11 W.Clark)Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.5%
Andrew Rappleyea 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:262% → 2%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short middle to #6 C.Morrow thrown to BUF33Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Walker thrown to BUF30 QB hurried by #33 A.McPhersonSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #1 P.Folmar thrown to BUF35 PENALTY BUF Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 54 yards to the PSU21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5698% → 98%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep right to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to PSU43Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
98.4%
#1 J.Peoples rush left for 1 yard gain to the PSU22 (#2 S.Bracey)Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+10
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #2 Z.Robinson caught at PSU35, for 13 yards to the PSU35, End Of Play PENALTY PSU Holding (#68 A.Donkoh) 10 yards from PSU22 to PSU12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+13
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU24, for 13 yards to the PSU25 (#41 S.Brown)Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
98.3%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 32 yards to the BUF43, out of bounds at BUF43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:182% → 2%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF47 (#19 Y.Kemajou) PENALTY PSU Illegal Use Of Hands (#92 S.Taupaki) 15 yards from BUF47 to PSU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU36 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
98.3%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete deep left to #6 C.Morrow thrown to PSU10, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PSU Pass Interference (#0 J.Joseph) 15 yards from PSU36 to PSU21, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at PSU06, for 16 yards to the PSU05 (#5 D.Dixson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.2%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU04 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short left to #6 C.Morrow thrown to PSU00Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.2%
#7 J.Wright pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Walker thrown to PSU03 QB hurried by #19 Y.KemajouSimilar
Q1 1:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
98.0%
#31 O.Hautanen field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever), clock 01:39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:2598% → 98%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush right for 7 yards gain to the PSU32 (#33 J.Owens)Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+61
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush left for 61 yards gain to the BUF07 (#22 D.Rodriguez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BUF05 (#88 R.Stinchcomb; #17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
98.2%
No Huddle #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BUF07 (#41 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Howard thrown to BUF00Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
98.4%
#94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 14:14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 0 yards to the BUF25 (#33 A.McPherson)Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #4 M.Burch caught at BUF21, for 2 yards to the BUF27 (#25 A.Tatsch)Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Morrow thrown to BUF33Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+30
98.2%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 50 yards to the PSU23 #2 Z.Robinson return 30 yards to the BUF47 (#7 J.Keough), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:5498% → 99%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush right for 16 yards gain to the BUF31 (#6 M.Greer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at BUF28, for 8 yards to the BUF23 (#6 M.Greer; #13 J.Cheshire)Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+3
98.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF20 (#15 S.Vessah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Howard rush left for 20 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:151% → 1%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the BUF25 (#10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BUF27 (#91 A.Nnodim)Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #5 C.Walker caught at BUF32, for 6 yards to the BUF33 (#25 A.Tatsch), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
98.7%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 54 yards to the PSU13 #2 Z.Robinson return 11 yards to the PSU24, out of bounds at PSU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU26 (#44 Z.Bergmann; #21 B.Ilunga-Bisselele). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down prior to losing the ball". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU25 fumbled by #1 J.Peoples at PSU27 forced by #21 B.Ilunga-Bisselele recovered by BUF #11 W.Clark at PSU25, End Of Play)Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #18 B.Brahmer caught at PSU31, for 10 yards to the PSU36 (#7 J.Keough; #44 Z.Bergmann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush left for 6 yards gain to the PSU42 (#41 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #84 G.Burkle thrown to PSU43 broken up by #21 B.Ilunga-BisseleleSimilar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to PSU45 broken up by #44 Z.BergmannSimilar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
98.8%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 43 yards to the BUF15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
98.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush right for 1 yard gain to the BUF16 (#17 J.Zayas), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
98.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 1 yard loss to the BUF15 (#19 Y.Kemajou)Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
98.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Walker thrown to BUF27 broken up by #2 A.Collins QB hurried by #19 Y.KemajouSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+19
98.7%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 49 yards to the PSU36 #2 Z.Robinson return 19 yards to the BUF45 (#48 J.Stoever) PENALTY PSU Illegal Block in Back (#21 V.Toure) 10 yards from BUF45 to PSU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #25 Q.Martin thrown to PSU42 PENALTY BUF Roughing The Passer (#41 S.Brown) 15 yards from PSU45 to BUF40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush middle for 5 yards loss to the BUF45 fumbled by #3 R.Becht at BUF45 recovered by PSU #3 R.Becht at BUF45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #0 C.Sowell thrown to BUF47 broken up by #11 W.ClarkSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #26 C.Wallace thrown to BUF40 QB hurried by #30 J.BennettSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
98.8%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 45 yards to the BUF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #1 P.Folmar caught at BUF23, for 3 yards to the BUF23 (#5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #1 P.Folmar thrown to BUF25 broken up by #7 Z.TracySimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Walker thrown to BUF35 QB hurried by #25 A.TatschSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
98.6%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 47 yards to the PSU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.6%
Koby Howard 70 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19FG
19 plays · 55 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
99.8%
Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF28 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF31 (#10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #1 P.Folmar caught at BUF33, for 2 yards to the BUF33 (#17 J.Zayas)Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+6
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF39 (#10 C.Bacon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #5 C.Walker caught at BUF40, for 1 yard to the BUF40 fumbled by #5 C.Walker at BUF40 forced by #31 M.Neal, out of bounds at BUF40Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+21
99.8%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush left for 21 yards gain to the PSU39, out of bounds at PSU39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete deep left to #11 D.Early, Jr. thrown to PSU19 PENALTY PSU Pass Interference (#7 Z.Tracy) 15 yards from PSU39 to PSU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #11 D.Early, Jr. caught at PSU14, for 10 yards to the PSU14, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short middle thrown to PSU16 QB hurried by #8 K.Ebel PENALTY BUF Intentional Grounding (#7 J.Wright)Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+3
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush right for 3 yards gain to the PSU21 (#99 K.Williams; #3 J.Patton)Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+38
99.6%
Oliver Hautanen 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
No Huddle #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU26 (#97 C.Climes; #41 S.Brown)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+35
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep left to #0 C.Sowell caught at BUF40, for 35 yards to the BUF39 (#0 K.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF38 (#41 S.Brown; #17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+13
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at BUF26, for 13 yards to the BUF25 (#0 K.Blackwell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at BUF20, for 11 yards to the BUF14 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.7%
Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush left for 2 yards gain to the BUF12 (#17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush left for 12 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:29, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BUF27 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
99.8%
Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF33 (#13 T.Rojas; #1 I.Ezeogu)Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 0 yards to the BUF33 fumbled by #0 N.Hill at BUF33 forced by #31 M.Neal recovered by PSU #31 M.Neal at BUF33, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.8%
Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BUF23 (#6 M.Greer; #7 J.Keough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske rush right for 3 yards gain to the BUF20 (#52 J.Garbolino), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+9
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush right for 9 yards gain to the BUF11 (#52 J.Garbolino), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush left for 11 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:14, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF29 (#25 A.Tatsch; #9 C.Brezina)Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.8%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF30 (#98 D.Vakalahi; #91 A.Nnodim)Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
99.8%
Shotgun rush for 5 yards loss to the BUF25 fumbled by at BUF25 forced by #25 A.Tatsch recovered by BUF #24 J.McNeil, Jr. at, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BUF25 (#25 A.Tatsch), fumble by #7 J.Wright recovered by BUF #24 J.McNeil, Jr. at BUF25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 47 yards to the PSU28 #2 Z.Robinson return for loss of 2 yards to the PSU26 (#7 J.Keough)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU29 (#95 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete short middle to #2 Z.Robinson caught at PSU36, for 7 yards to the PSU36 (#7 J.Keough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush left for 0 yards to the PSU36 (#7 J.Keough; #11 W.Clark)Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Brookins thrown to BUF28 QB hurried by #17 L.GoodwinSimilar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass incomplete short middle to #14 P.Falzone thrown to PSU45Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 42 yards to the BUF22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the BUF22 (#9 C.Brezina; #21 V.Toure)Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BUF27 (#89 J.Ford; #39 T.Blanding)Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Walker thrown to BUF32 broken up by #21 V.ToureSimilar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+11
99.9%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 44 yards to the PSU29 #2 Z.Robinson return 11 yards to the PSU40 (#7 J.Keough)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush left for 7 yards gain to the PSU47 (#21 B.Ilunga-Bisselele; #22 D.Rodriguez)Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+12
99.9%
No Huddle #9 A.Jackson rush right for 12 yards gain to the BUF41 (#4 R.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF37 (#16 C.Oliver)Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+31
99.9%
No Huddle #7 A.Manske pass complete deep right to #89 F.Furmanek caught at BUF17, for 31 yards to the BUF06 (#23 X.Leonard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
No Huddle #7 A.Manske pass incomplete short right to #89 F.Furmanek thrown to BUF05 QB hurried by #21 B.Ilunga-BisseleleSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BUF08 (#17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete short right to #26 C.Wallace caught at BUF10, for 7 yards to the BUF01 (#7 J.Keough)Similar
Q4 14:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
No Huddle #26 C.Wallace rush left for 0 yards to the BUF01 (#4 R.Davis), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Morrow thrown to BUF10Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BUF08 (#35 T.Armstead)Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+1
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF09 (#17 J.Zayas)Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+2
99.9%
#90 E.Stumpf punt 42 yards to the PSU49 #2 Z.Robinson return 2 yards to the BUF49 (#94 N.Wittmer) PENALTY PSU Holding (#32 J.Klosterman) 10 yards from BUF49 to PSU41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush left for 59 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:31, 1ST DOWN #98 M.Parker kick attempt good (H: #10 C.Barry, LS: #92 A.Dufault)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:300% → 0%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush left for 14 yards gain to the BUF39 (#0 J.Joseph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF43 (#28 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF46 (#90 L.Andrews; #94 D.Cook)Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at PSU39, for 15 yards to the PSU39 (#20 T.Chatman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU36 (#89 J.Ford)Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+16
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 16 yards gain to the PSU20 (#20 T.Chatman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 12 yards gain to the PSU08 (#28 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU06 (#9 C.Brezina)Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU06 (#90 L.Andrews; #28 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short middle thrown to PSU06 QB hurried by #90 L.Andrews PENALTY PSU Face Mask (#24 I.McDaniels) 3 yards from PSU06 to PSU03, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU01 (#16 D.Nastasi)Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Shotgun #24 J.McNeil, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:01 #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30END OF GAME
12 plays · 32 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #36 A.Glover rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU13 (#30 J.Bennett)Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 13
-1
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Barry rush right for 1 yard loss to the PSU12 (#52 J.Garbolino; #13 J.Cheshire)Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+12
100.0%
No Huddle #10 C.Barry pass complete short left to #86 B.Mears caught at PSU18, for 12 yards to the PSU24 (#4 R.Davis; #7 J.Keough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.9%
Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush right for 8 yards gain to the PSU32 (#7 J.Keough; #23 X.Leonard)Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
No Huddle #31 L.Cunningham rush left for 2 yards gain to the PSU34 (#5 M.Crawford; #30 J.Bennett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush left for 7 yards gain to the PSU41 (#7 J.Keough)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
No Huddle #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU43 (#95 S.Smith)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
100.0%
#36 A.Glover rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU43 (#23 X.Leonard; #59 R.Rogers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:31
Koby Howard 70 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)
+1
TD · Q2 10:47
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Howard rush left for 20 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:47, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)
+0.5
TD · Q1 6:19
Andrew Rappleyea 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com