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MSU

Michigan State 10 at Notre Dame 27

ND
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:34 · (00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Robinson rush left for 11 yards gain to the UND50 (#20 K.Williams; #97 C.Thrush), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+40.7Home team on offense+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:46: (04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:46. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:21: (03:24) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush left for 15 yards gain to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:21, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky) — MSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 1:00: (01:03) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 01:00 — ND win probability +0.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:00: Timeout Notre Dame, clock 01:00 — MSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:55: (11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:55 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +6.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:06ND 4th & 3 at MSU 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:37ND 4th & 3 at MSU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09ND 4th & 2 at MSU 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:34ND 4th & 13 at ND 39, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:05MSU 4th & 13 at ND 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:47ND 4th & 6 at ND 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:42MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:00ND 4th & 7 at MSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−5.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:18ND 4th & 4 at MSU 21, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:44MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:02MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 4:46ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:21MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:55ND Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3897% → 96%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+61
96.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at MSU27, for 61 yards to the MSU14 (#3 T.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.6%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 0 yards to the MSU14 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
96.5%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 0 yards to the MSU14 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+7
96.4%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSU07 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
96.3%
(12:05) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 12:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:194% → 4%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
(12:06) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #0 C.Edwards thrown to MSU27 broken up by #2 D.McKinneySimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.3%
(12:03) #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU31 (#95 B.Young; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-4
96.1%
(11:22) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MSU27 (#0 T.Gray)Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
96.3%
(10:44) #9 R.Dakin punt 14 yards to the MSU41 blocked by #33 M.JefferySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:5896% → 96%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
96.2%
(10:37) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the MSU41 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
96.2%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at MSU38, for 7 yards to the MSU34 (#2 D.Vaught; #5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
96.1%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU34 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+8
95.9%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #14 M.Gilbert caught at MSU29, for 8 yards to the MSU26 (#22 T.Chappell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
96.0%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU19 (#22 T.Chappell)Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
95.9%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU14 (#18 D.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
95.8%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at MSU10, for 4 yards to the MSU10 (#3 T.Bell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
95.7%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU06 (#98 D.Simmons)Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
95.7%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #14 M.Gilbert thrown to MSU00Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+4
95.6%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at MSU03, for 4 yards to the MSU02 (#22 T.Chappell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.6%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:31 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:245% → 5%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.2%
(04:31) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU29 (#7 F.Brewu; #27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+13
95.1%
(03:47) #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at MSU42, for 13 yards to the MSU42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.0%
(03:06) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass intercepted by #28 L.Talich at UND27, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2695% → 95%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
95.1%
(03:00) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass intercepted by #2 D.Vaught at MSU41 #2 D.Vaught return 39 yards to the UND20, out of bounds at UND20 PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#4 C.Brantley) 15 yards from UND27 to UND42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.2%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND47 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
95.1%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the UND47 (#55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+2
94.9%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #2 N.James Jr. caught at UND46, for 2 yards to the UND49 (#5 J.Hall; #4 C.Brantley)Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+10
94.7%
(00:48) #39 J.Scaife punt 40 yards to the MSU11, out of bounds at MSU11 PENALTY UND Holding (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa) 10 yards from UND49 to UND39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 13
OWN 39
+11
94.5%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Robinson rush left for 11 yards gain to the UND50 (#20 K.Williams; #97 C.Thrush), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 36 yds · 5:275% → 7%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
50
+9
94.6%
(00:32) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UND41 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
94.4%
(14:58) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UND38 (#0 T.Gray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
94.3%
(14:18) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UND35 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
94.0%
(13:38) #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND30 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+9
94.0%
(12:53) #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #88 K.Rios caught at UND22, for 9 yards to the UND21 (#3 J.Sneed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.7%
(12:14) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Fancher thrown to UND17 broken up by #29 C.GraySimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
93.6%
(12:10) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #31 J.Savoury caught at UND23, for 8 yards to the UND13 (#4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
93.6%
(11:41) No Huddle #21 M.Parrish rush left for 2 yards gain to the UND11 (#8 A.Shuler), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
93.4%
(11:01) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UND14 (#8 A.Shuler; #28 L.Talich)Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
93.3%
(10:19) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher pass incomplete short left to #32 K.Williams thrown to UND00 QB hurried by #5 B.TraoreSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
93.3%
(10:14) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher pass incomplete short left to #32 K.Williams thrown to UND00 QB hurried by #5 B.TraoreSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
93.7%
(10:14) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #31 J.Savoury thrown to UND00 broken up by #28 L.TalichSimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+32
93.5%
(10:06) #37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 10:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0894% → 96%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
93.7%
(10:05) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at UND38, for 21 yards to the UND46 (#3 T.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
93.9%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 9 yards gain to the MSU45 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
93.8%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right thrown to MSU30Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
93.6%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 6 yards gain to the MSU39 (#45 B.Pretzlaff; #22 T.Chappell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
93.7%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSU32 (#96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+8
93.6%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #3 M.Graham caught at MSU24, for 8 yards to the MSU24 (#21 N.Martinez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
93.9%
(06:42) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #22 A.Williams caught at MSU20, for 4 yards to the MSU20 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
93.8%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU18 (#45 B.Pretzlaff). #45 B.Pretzlaff injured on the playSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+15
92.2%
(05:39) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Faison thrown to MSU00 broken up by #3 T.Bell PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#3 T.Bell) 15 yards from MSU18 to MSU03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.2%
(05:32) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU01 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:46. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:115% → 8%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.3%
(04:38) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush left for 0 yards to the MSU32 (#3 J.Sneed; #12 J.Sanders)Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+53
95.5%
(04:03) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at UND15, for 53 yards to the UND15, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. UND is challenging the ruling on the field - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
92.0%
(03:24) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush left for 15 yards gain to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:21, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2894% → 93%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
(03:21) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the UND25 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.8%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at UND25, for 4 yards to the UND29 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
93.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #1 J.Greathouse thrown to UND40Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.1%
(01:56) #39 J.Scaife punt 49 yards to the MSU22, out of bounds at MSU22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:287% → 7%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.5%
(01:47) Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU22 (#29 C.Gray; #7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
93.4%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU26 (#95 B.Young)Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
93.6%
(01:07) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU26 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
93.1%
(00:20) #9 R.Dakin punt 36 yards to the UND38, out of bounds at UND38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0293% → 93%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.2%
(00:13) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to #6 J.Faison thrown to MSU41 broken up by #21 N.MartinezSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
93.1%
(00:06) Kneel down by #13 C.Carr at UND37 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 4:069% → 10%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
91.0%
(14:51) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU24 (#3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
90.7%
(14:10) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU30 (#95 B.Young)Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
90.2%
(13:28) Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU32 (#5 B.Traore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
89.9%
(12:54) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU35 (#7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
89.6%
(12:15) #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU38 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
89.3%
(11:33) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush right for 0 yards to the MSU38 (#3 J.Sneed), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
89.7%
(10:50) #9 R.Dakin punt 56 yards to the UND06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FG
19 plays · 77 yds · 9:3690% → 92%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
90.1%
(10:40) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND07 (#9 K.Thompson)Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+14
89.9%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UND20, for 14 yards to the UND21 (#21 N.Martinez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
90.7%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UND25, for 7 yards to the UND28 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
90.9%
(08:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UND32 (#3 T.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
90.5%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND37 (#96 E.Coenen; #18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
91.5%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at UND42, for 5 yards to the UND42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.5%
(07:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the UND42 (#98 D.Simmons; #5 J.Hall)Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
91.1%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UND47, for 6 yards to the UND48 (#44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
90.9%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush right for 5 yards gain to the MSU47 (#44 C.Wheatland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
91.2%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MSU48 (#13 I.Smith)Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+8
90.9%
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the MSU40 (#96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
90.5%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU37 (#18 D.Crawford; #21 N.Martinez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
90.8%
(02:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 17 yards gain to the MSU20 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
91.5%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep right to #6 J.Faison thrown to MSU00 broken up by #3 T.BellSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
91.5%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU17 (#96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
91.7%
(01:20) PENALTY UND Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU17 to MSU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+5
91.4%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 N.James Jr. caught at MSU26, for 5 yards to the MSU17 (#21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
92.1%
(01:03) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 01:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:369% → 7%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
91.5%
(00:54) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU36, for 18 yards to the MSU44 (#4 J.Ausberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
91.3%
(00:30) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU50, for 13 yards to the UND43 (#28 L.Talich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
90.5%
(14:58) #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MSU48 (#10 L.Thomas)Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 19
OWN 48
0
92.1%
(14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #13 C.McCray thrown to UND30 broken up by #15 L.MooreSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 19
OWN 48
-12
92.2%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 12 yards to the MSU36 (#5 B.Traore), fumble by #11 A.Milivojevic recovered by MSU #75 B.Murawski at MSU36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 31
OWN 36
0
92.8%
(13:15) #9 R.Dakin punt 32 yards to the UND32, out of bounds at UND32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 2:0593% → 99%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
92.6%
(13:10) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at MSU48, for 28 yards to the MSU40 (#2 D.Vaught), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
93.4%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MSU42 (#7 M.Richard)Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+39
93.2%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep left to #14 M.Gilbert caught at MSU03, for 39 yards to the MSU03, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.2%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:55 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
97.8%
(10:55) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass intercepted by #8 A.Shuler at MSU36 QB hurried by #5 B.Traore #8 A.Shuler return 9 yards to the MSU27 (#13 C.McCray)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
99.2%
(10:49) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU28 (#5 J.Hall; #9 K.Thompson)Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
99.2%
(10:05) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short middle to #20 J.Walton thrown to MSU26 QB hurried by #55 B.RobertsSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+7
99.2%
(10:02) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #22 A.Williams caught at MSU25, for 7 yards to the MSU21 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
99.1%
(09:21) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 39 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 09:18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 4:102% → 2%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.7%
(09:18) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU18, for 0 yards to the MSU21 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
97.7%
(08:39) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU26 (#3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+7
97.7%
(08:03) Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU33 (#34 D.Bowen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.6%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU38, for 5 yards to the MSU38 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
97.6%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU41 (#88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-1
97.7%
(06:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU40 (#88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+4
97.9%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU44, for 4 yards to the MSU44 (#8 A.Shuler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.8%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep left to #6 F.Moore thrown to UND31 broken up by #12 J.SandersSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.2%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #82 B.Parachek thrown to MSU50 broken up by #44 R.Dunham QB hurried by #44 R.DunhamSimilar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-10
98.3%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MSU34 (#28 L.Talich). #0 C.Edwards injured on the playSimilar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
98.4%
(05:07) #9 R.Dakin punt 57 yards to the UND09 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at UND09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19END OF GAME
15 plays · 49 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
99.7%
(05:02) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND14 (#44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
99.7%
(04:55) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND16 (#18 D.Crawford)Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+14
99.7%
(04:48) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UND30 (#12 C.Stodghill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the UND34 (#8 T.Lisle)Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
99.7%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UND41 (#3 T.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.7%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UND46 (#5 J.Hall)Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
99.7%
(02:18) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU48 (#96 E.Coenen; #52 M.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
99.5%
(01:58) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU39 (#12 C.Stodghill)Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-2
99.5%
(01:11) Kneel down by #13 C.Carr at MSU41 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-1
99.6%
(00:36) Kneel down by #13 C.Carr at MSU42 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:55
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:55 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
+6
TD · Q2 4:46
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:46. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
+3.4
TD · Q2 3:21
(03:24) Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush left for 15 yards gain to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:21, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com