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SIU

Southern Illinois 10 at Illinois 48

ILL
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadSIU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreSIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+0.7ILL 99.9%Matthew Bailey 88 Yd InterceptionReturn (Ethan Moczulski Kick)AWAY 10 - HOME 41 · Q4 13:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:03 · Matthew Bailey 88 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Moczulski Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior+17.4Home team on offense+34.6Score differential+28.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Garbage-time factor+10.1Blowout margin+15.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:46: (03:48) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #5 A.Middleton caught at ILL01, for 8 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:46, 1ST DOWN #97 W.Schofield kick attempt good (H: #18 J.Clark, LS: #48 R.Algrim) — SIU win probability +0.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:22: (14:29) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU01, for 45 yards to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:22, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:44: (09:49) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU00, for 27 yards to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:44, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III) — ILL win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 2:18: (02:20) #97 W.Schofield field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #18 J.Clark, LS: #48 R.Algrim), clock 02:18 — SIU win probability +1.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:03: Matthew Bailey 88 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Moczulski Kick) — ILL win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SIU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 12:57SIU 4th & 10 at SIU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:31SIU 4th & 2 at SIU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:41SIU 4th & 25 at SIU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51ILL 4th & 1 at SIU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:58SIU 4th & 2 at ILL 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:16SIU 4th & 17 at SIU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:41ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 10, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:18SIU 4th & 9 at ILL 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:54ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:05SIU 4th & 8 at SIU 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:38ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 27, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:04SIU 4th & 26 at SIU 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:56ILL 4th & 6 at SIU 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:03SIU 4th & 3 at ILL 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:40SIU 4th & 12 at SIU 23, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:15SIU 4th & 2 at ILL 41, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:25ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:46SIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:57ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:22ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:44ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:03ILL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:38ILL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SIUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:402% → 3%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #87 K.Konkel caught at SIU28, for 21 yards to the SIU46 (#5 J.Morris; #26 I.Kante), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.6%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Chapman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SIU47 (#18 M.Muragin; #96 D.Prater)Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
97.5%
(13:44) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete deep left to #6 K.Thomas thrown to ILL31Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-1
97.5%
(13:40) Shotgun #8 C.Chapman rush left for 1 yard loss to the SIU46 (#1 X.Scott; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
(13:00) #92 E.Gorman punt 19 yards to the ILL35, out of bounds at ILL35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2197% → 97%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.4%
(12:56) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #11 B.Trimble caught at ILL40, for 7 yards to the ILL42 (#12 T.Jackson; #45 B.Fiegel)Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
97.3%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 6 yards gain to the ILL48 (#46 A.Behm; #0 G.Shepard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.3%
(12:02) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Dixon thrown to SIU35Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.2%
(11:58) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL46, for 2 yards to the ILL50 (#0 G.Shepard; #15 C.Whelpley)Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 8
50
+15
97.2%
(11:19) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #11 B.Trimble caught at SIU45, for 15 yards to the SIU35 (#45 B.Fiegel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
97.1%
(10:43) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at SIU17, for 19 yards to the SIU16 (#0 G.Shepard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
97.0%
(10:03) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short middle to #11 B.Trimble caught at SIU04, for 15 yards to the SIU01 (#12 T.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
(09:27) #23 J.Anderson rush left for 1 yard gain to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:25 #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:293% → 5%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
(09:22) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short left to #11 M.Quick caught at SIU30, for 6 yards to the SIU31 (#6 J.Clarke), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
96.9%
(08:46) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Thomas thrown to SIU40 broken up by #6 J.ClarkeSimilar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
97.0%
(08:41) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #5 A.Middleton caught at SIU35, for 5 yards to the SIU36 (#1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.9%
(08:07) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short right to #47 M.Marshall thrown to SIU40 broken up by #10 J.KreutzSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.9%
(08:03) Shotgun #1 D.Williams rush right for 1 yard gain to the SIU37 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+7
96.8%
(07:25) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short middle to #47 M.Marshall caught at SIU39, for 7 yards to the SIU44 QB hurried by #24 W.Holmes (#33 G.Beerman; #26 I.Kante)Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+9
96.7%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams rush right for 9 yards gain to the ILL47 (#32 T.Cox), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
96.5%
(05:54) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #5 A.Middleton thrown to ILL28 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference declined ILL Roughing The Passer (#26 I.Kante) 15 yards from ILL47 to ILL32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
96.4%
(05:49) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short left to #47 M.Marshall caught at ILL26, for 12 yards to the ILL20 (#32 T.Cox), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
96.2%
(05:02) Shotgun #1 D.Williams rush left for 10 yards gain to the ILL10 (#0 M.Resetich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.1%
(04:21) Shotgun #8 C.Chapman rush left for 2 yards gain to the ILL08 (#10 J.Kreutz; #6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
95.3%
(03:48) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #5 A.Middleton caught at ILL01, for 8 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:46, 1ST DOWN #97 W.Schofield kick attempt good (H: #18 J.Clark, LS: #48 R.Algrim)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4096% → 96%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.8%
(03:44) Shotgun #4 K.Houser sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ILL23 (#98 L.Bassett)Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+77
96.4%
(03:07) Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush left for 77 yards gain to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:57, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:094% → 4%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.4%
(02:55) Shotgun #26 Q.Chatmon rush left for 1 yard gain to the SIU26 (#43 J.Barna)Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
96.3%
(02:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams sacked for loss of 16 yards to the SIU10 (#43 J.Barna, #96 D.Prater)Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 25
OWN 10
0
96.3%
(01:53) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #11 M.Quick thrown to SIU17Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
96.3%
(01:49) #92 E.Gorman punt 46 yards to the ILL44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:1996% → 97%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.3%
(01:41) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 0 yards to the ILL44 (#46 A.Behm)Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+8
96.1%
(00:54) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL48, for 8 yards to the SIU48 (#8 C.Cason)Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
96.1%
(00:18) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SIU47 (#46 A.Behm)Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
96.0%
(14:59) #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU49, for 2 yards to the SIU45 (#45 B.Fiegel; #6 C.Presto), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
97.2%
(14:29) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU01, for 45 yards to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:22, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 3:153% → 4%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.8%
(14:21) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #6 K.Thomas caught at SIU22, for 4 yards to the SIU29 (#6 J.Clarke), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
96.8%
(14:00) No Huddle #11 M.Quick rush right for 9 yards gain to the SIU38 (#7 M.Bailey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
96.8%
(13:24) Shotgun #16 E.Harris rush right for 1 yard gain to the SIU39 (#45 R.Edmonson)Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+10
96.7%
(12:41) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short middle to #11 M.Quick thrown to SIU49, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (#6 J.Clarke) 10 yards from SIU39 to SIU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
96.7%
(12:40) Shotgun #4 E.Robinson rush left for 2 yards loss to the SIU47 (#43 J.Barna)Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
96.7%
(11:55) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short right to #11 M.Quick thrown to ILL42 QB hurried by #26 I.KanteSimilar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+10
96.8%
(11:52) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #6 K.Thomas caught at SIU49, for 10 yards to the ILL43 (#5 J.Morris)Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
96.0%
(11:04) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete deep right to #8 C.Chapman thrown to ILL05 broken up by #6 J.Clarke, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:5497% → 99%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
97.1%
(10:57) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #10 T.Robinson caught at SIU41, for 21 yards to the SIU36 (#21 M.McClelland; #4 V.Pierre Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
97.1%
(10:21) #23 J.Anderson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SIU27 (#21 M.McClelland; #45 B.Fiegel)Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+27
98.5%
(09:49) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU00, for 27 yards to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:44, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 14 yds · 3:172% → 4%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.1%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Chapman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SIU26 (#10 J.Kreutz)Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
98.1%
(09:04) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short middle to #5 A.Middleton caught at SIU32, for 9 yards to the SIU35 (#38 J.Paris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.3%
(08:38) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #6 K.Thomas caught at SIU40, for 5 yards to the SIU40 (#6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
96.9%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short middle to #5 A.Middleton caught at SIU45, for 6 yards to the SIU46 (#1 X.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.9%
(07:42) PENALTY SIU False Start (#63 K.Francis) 5 yards from SIU46 to SIU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-2
97.0%
(07:20) Shotgun #24 L.Wash rush right for 2 yards loss to the SIU39 (#10 J.Kreutz; #90 C.Janki)Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
95.3%
(06:36) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #11 M.Quick thrown to SIU46Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 17
OWN 39
0
96.6%
(06:31) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete deep middle to #5 A.Middleton thrown to ILL15Similar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
96.5%
(06:25) #92 E.Gorman punt 57 yards to the ILL04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2899% → 98%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
98.6%
(06:15) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL09, for 5 yards to the ILL09 (#8 C.Cason), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+4
98.6%
(05:50) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #88 D.Stoffel caught at ILL10, for 4 yards to the ILL13 (#17 S.Vargas) PENALTY ILL Holding (#72 C.Martin) 4 yards from ILL09 to ILL05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+5
98.7%
(05:32) #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL10 (#94 A.Dwight)Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 4
OWN 10
0
98.5%
(04:54) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #21 A.Laughery thrown to ILL07Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
98.4%
(04:50) #81 L.Rau punt 33 yards to the ILL43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 11FG
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:362% → 4%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+37
97.9%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Thomas pass complete deep right to #4 E.Robinson caught at ILL10, for 37 yards to the ILL06 (#6 J.Clarke; #16 T.Heckel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.7%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams rush left for 0 yards to the ILL06 (#54 D.John). #54 D.John injured on the playSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
97.6%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams rush left for 3 yards loss to the ILL09 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.9%
(02:26) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #26 Q.Chatmon thrown to ILL00Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
96.5%
(02:20) #97 W.Schofield field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #18 J.Clark, LS: #48 R.Algrim), clock 02:18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:0798% → 97%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #83 K.Feagin caught at ILL23, for 5 yards to the ILL30 (#88 K.Lewis)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
97.1%
(01:58) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #11 B.Trimble caught at ILL35, for 7 yards to the ILL37 (#46 A.Behm), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
97.5%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ILL33 (#9 I.Sanogo). #59 J.Renfro injured on the playSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-2
97.4%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at ILL31, for 2 yards loss to the ILL31 (#17 S.Vargas)Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+4
97.6%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #83 K.Feagin caught at ILL33, for 4 yards to the ILL35 (#6 C.Presto)Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
97.4%
(00:54) #81 L.Rau punt 48 yards to the SIU17 #11 M.Quick return 0 yards to the SIU17, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:153% → 3%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
97.1%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #5 A.Middleton caught at SIU19, for 5 yards to the SIU22 (#40 E.Rhea)Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
96.9%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short right thrown to SIU40 QB hurried by #45 R.EdmonsonSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
97.0%
(00:23) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete deep right to #14 T.Dyson thrown to ILL40Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 5
OPP 0
0
96.7%
(00:18) #92 E.Gorman punt 39 yards to the ILL39 fair catch by #0 M.Resetich at ILL39 PENALTY SIU Kick Catch Interference (#17 S.Vargas) 15 yards from ILL39 to SIU46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:0699% → 99%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser rush left for 9 yards gain to the SIU37 (#8 C.Cason)Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+19
98.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU18, for 19 yards to the SIU18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+36
98.6%
Ethan Moczulski 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15INT
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4898% → 99%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.3%
(14:57) No Huddle #5 C.Valentine rush right for 5 yards gain to the ILL30 (#12 T.Jackson; #15 C.Whelpley)Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
98.4%
(14:25) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL32 (#12 T.Jackson)Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+23
98.3%
(13:47) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at ILL40, for 23 yards to the SIU45 (#12 T.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
98.5%
(13:14) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 8 yards gain to the SIU37 (#4 V.Pierre Jr.; #6 C.Presto)Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+25
98.5%
(12:33) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU14, for 25 yards to the SIU12 (#4 V.Pierre Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.5%
(11:57) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short left to #5 C.Valentine thrown to SIU05Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
98.5%
(11:51) #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SIU09 (#45 B.Fiegel; #46 A.Behm)Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
98.5%
(11:11) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass intercepted by #17 S.Vargas at SIU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:552% → 2%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.5%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Chapman rush left for 0 yards to the SIU20 (#96 D.Prater)Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
98.5%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short middle to #6 K.Thomas caught at SIU26, for 13 yards to the SIU33 (#6 J.Clarke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.5%
(10:01) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short right to #47 M.Marshall thrown to ILL50Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
98.5%
(09:57) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short middle to #88 K.White caught at SIU45, for 12 yards to the SIU45 (#0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.5%
(09:14) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short left to #47 M.Marshall caught at SIU47, for 0 yards to the SIU45 (#16 T.Heckel)Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.5%
(08:49) Shotgun #26 Q.Chatmon rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SIU48 (#10 J.Kreutz; #7 M.Bailey)Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+4
98.5%
(08:14) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short right to #6 K.Thomas caught at ILL48, for 4 yards to the ILL48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+5
98.5%
PENALTY SIU False Start (#73 C.Smith) 5 yards from ILL48 to SIU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
98.5%
(07:12) #92 E.Gorman punt 53 yards to the ILL00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1599% → 99%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
98.7%
(07:03) #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #86 C.Abney caught at ILL20, for 6 yards to the ILL26 (#12 T.Jackson)Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
98.9%
(06:32) #23 J.Anderson rush right for 1 yard gain to the ILL27 (#2 N.Hill)Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
98.9%
(05:50) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete short right to #83 K.Feagin thrown to ILL30 broken up by #20 J.ParrellaSimilar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
98.8%
(05:43) #81 L.Rau punt 49 yards to the SIU24 fair catch by #5 A.Middleton at SIU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.7%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short left to #87 K.Konkel caught at SIU26, for 7 yards to the SIU31 (#26 I.Kante)Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
98.7%
(05:08) Shotgun #4 E.Robinson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SIU33 (#90 C.Janki)Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+6
98.8%
(04:25) Shotgun #1 D.Williams rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SIU39 (#16 T.Heckel), 1ST DOWN. #1 D.Williams injured on the playSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-16
98.8%
(04:07) Shotgun Southern Illinois rush middle for 16 yards loss to the SIU23 fumbled by Southern Illinois at SIU23 recovered by SIU #7 J.Curry at SIU23, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 26
OWN 23
0
98.9%
(03:16) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete deep right to #5 A.Middleton thrown to SIU48Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 26
OWN 23
0
98.9%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Thomas thrown to SIU30Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 26
OWN 23
0
98.9%
(03:07) #92 E.Gorman punt 37 yards to the ILL40 fair catch by #0 M.Resetich at ILL40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0399% → 100%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.4%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ILL47 (#34 D.Obadein)Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
99.4%
(02:30) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush right for 5 yards gain to the SIU48 (#0 G.Shepard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
99.5%
(01:52) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #13 H.Clement caught at SIU30, for 20 yards to the SIU28 (#4 V.Pierre Jr.), 1ST DOWN. #71 N.Knapik injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.5%
(01:33) Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SIU26 (#45 B.Fiegel)Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+10
99.5%
(00:56) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU11, for 18 yards to the SIU08 (#0 G.Shepard) PENALTY ILL Holding (#52 C.Smith) 10 yards from SIU26 to SIU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 18
OPP 36
0
99.5%
(00:30) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass incomplete deep middle to #13 H.Clement thrown to SIU00Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 18
OPP 36
+12
99.5%
(00:24) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #88 D.Stoffel caught at SIU30, for 12 yards to the SIU24 (#6 C.Presto)Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
99.5%
Ethan Moczulski 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 20INT TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:391% → 0%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
99.2%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short middle to #6 K.Thomas caught at SIU42, for 41 yards to the ILL34 (#0 M.Resetich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.1%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #6 K.Thomas thrown to ILL30 QB hurried by #40 E.RheaSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.1%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short right to #26 Q.Chatmon thrown to ILL26Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.2%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short left to #14 T.Dyson caught at ILL27, for 7 yards to the ILL27 (#6 J.Clarke)Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 3
OPP 27
-88
99.9%
Matthew Bailey 88 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Moczulski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Chapman rush left for 3 yards gain to the SIU28 (#22 D.Fillmore)Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass incomplete short left to #8 C.Chapman thrown to SIU20 QB hurried by #90 C.JankiSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
PENALTY SIU False Start (#53 E.Goodin) 5 yards from SIU28 to SIU23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
(12:15) Shotgun #1 D.Williams pass complete short left to #26 Q.Chatmon caught at SIU19, for 0 yards to the SIU23 fumbled by #26 Q.Chatmon at SIU22 forced by #8 C.Thomas recovered by SIU #26 Q.Chatmon at SIU23, End Of Play. #16 T.Heckel injured on the playSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
(11:40) #92 E.Gorman punt 38 yards to the ILL39 fair catch by #0 M.Resetich at ILL39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 A.Laughery rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ILL44 (#21 M.McClelland; #19 S.Farmer)Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+13
99.9%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #11 B.Trimble caught at SIU45, for 13 yards to the SIU43 (#4 V.Pierre Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.9%
(10:23) Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SIU35 (#6 C.Presto). #93 J.Hudgins-Key injured on the playSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
(09:46) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short right to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU28, for 7 yards to the SIU28 (#8 C.Cason), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
99.9%
(09:11) Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush middle for 18 yards gain to the SIU10 (#46 A.Behm), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SIU Holding (#46 A.Behm) 5 yards from SIU10 to SIU05, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Javari Barnett 5 Yd Run (Ethan Moczulski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SIUDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 5:100% → 0%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
(08:36) Shotgun #7 J.Curry rush right for 7 yards gain to the SIU32 (#38 J.Paris)Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
(07:52) Shotgun #24 L.Wash rush right for 0 yards to the SIU32 (#38 J.Paris)Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
100.0%
(07:07) Shotgun #7 J.Curry rush right for 6 yards gain to the SIU38 (#3 N.Hankins Jr.; #13 X.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
100.0%
(06:20) Shotgun #7 J.Curry pass complete short middle to #88 K.White caught at SIU42, for 9 yards to the SIU47 (#21 B.Clawson)Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
(05:34) Shotgun #7 J.Curry rush left for 4 yards gain to the ILL49 (#8 C.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
100.0%
(05:10) Shotgun #7 J.Curry pass incomplete short middle to #88 K.White thrown to ILL40Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
(05:05) Shotgun #25 J.McCaster rush left for 2 yards loss to the SIU49 (#17 I.Thomison; #38 J.Paris)Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+5
100.0%
(04:18) Shotgun #7 J.Curry rush left for 5 yards gain to the ILL46 (#38 J.Paris)Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 7
OPP 46
+5
100.0%
PENALTY ILL Offside 5 yards from ILL46 to ILL41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
100.0%
(03:17) Shotgun #7 J.Curry pass incomplete short left to #26 Q.Chatmon thrown to ILL30 broken up by #28 K.Bennett QB hurried by #28 K.Bennett, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
(03:01) Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL43 (#88 K.Lewis; #6 C.Presto)Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
100.0%
(02:26) Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush right for 4 yards gain to the ILL47 (#12 T.Jackson)Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+8
100.0%
(01:57) Shotgun #2 C.Boyd rush right for 8 yards gain to the SIU45 (#12 T.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
100.0%
(01:54) Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SIU39 (#19 S.Farmer)Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
100.0%
(01:00) Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush right for 0 yards to the SIU39 (#28 J.Newkirk)Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
100.0%
(00:17) Shotgun #24 J.Barnett rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SIU32 (#35 A.Broshears), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:44
(09:49) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU00, for 27 yards to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:44, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
+1.4
FG · Q2 2:18
(02:20) #97 W.Schofield field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #18 J.Clark, LS: #48 R.Algrim), clock 02:18
-1.4
TD · Q2 14:22
(14:29) Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete deep left to #17 C.Dixon caught at SIU01, for 45 yards to the SIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:22, 1ST DOWN #37 E.Moczulski kick attempt good (H: #81 L.Rau, LS: #44 P.Mahoney III)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com