Try the model
UL

Louisiana 30 at USC 49

USC
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:33 · (00:42) #49 M.Golding punt 36 yards to the USC47 #9 T.Anderson return 13 yards to the UL40 (#37 H.Kidder)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+19.3Home team on offense+22.5Score differential+8.6Garbage-time factor+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.2Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:21: (09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:21. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) — UL win probability +2.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:24: (01:46) #49 M.Golding punt 41 yards to the USC14 #4 T.Mosley return 86 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown) — USC win probability +1.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:07: (04:11) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:07 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) — UL win probability +2.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:27: (11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 32 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN — UL win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:38: (02:45) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #10 R.Babineaux caught at USC00, for 14 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:38, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) — UL win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:23UL 4th & 1 at USC 30, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:59UL 4th & 1 at UL 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:24UL 4th & 5 at UL 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:16UL 4th & 7 at UL 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:58UL 4th & 12 at UL 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:32USC 4th & 3 at UL 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:40USC 4th & 6 at USC 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:33UL 4th & 9 at UL 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:31USC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:21UL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:24USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:48USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:07UL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:19USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:30USC Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:38UL Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:1597% → 97%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
97.2%
(14:55) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 3 yards gain to the USC26 (#44 J.St. Andre; #6 C.McPherson)Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+7
97.1%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 7 yards gain to the USC33 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.0%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #10 C.Simms thrown to USC43Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
97.0%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #16 T.Hines thrown to USC45Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
96.9%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #10 A.Demery at USC44 #10 A.Demery return 5 yards to the USC39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:513% → 3%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
96.9%
(13:24) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #10 R.Babineaux caught at USC40, for 4 yards to the USC35 (#94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
96.8%
(12:52) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC33 (#8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
96.7%
(12:13) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC30 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+47
96.6%
(11:29) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 11:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 6:1297% → 96%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
96.5%
(11:18) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at USC28, for 12 yards to the USC33 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.; #21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
96.5%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC35 (#68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
96.4%
(10:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 7 yards gain to the USC42 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+13
96.3%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UL45 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
96.2%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush left for 15 yards gain to the UL30 (#44 J.St. Andre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
96.1%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush left for 5 yards gain to the UL25 (#0 P.Ashe)Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
96.0%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #27 R.Wormley caught at UL22, for 6 yards to the UL19 (#44 J.St. Andre), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
96.1%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 1 yard gain to the UL18 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
96.2%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 1 yard gain to the UL18 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+6
96.0%
(07:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #19 M.Bowman caught at UL15, for 6 yards to the UL12 (#6 C.McPherson; #95 M.Baudoin IV)Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+5
96.0%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #2 W.Jordan caught at UL16, for 5 yards to the UL07 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
95.9%
(05:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UL05 (#35 C.Jacob; #6 C.McPherson)Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.8%
(05:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #10 C.Simms thrown to UL00Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.7%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #19 M.Bowman caught at UL00, for 5 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:57 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:544% → 5%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.6%
(04:57) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UL24 (#94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
95.5%
(04:23) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush right for 1 yard loss to the UL23 (#91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
95.4%
(03:45) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #87 K.Brooks caught at UL34, for 11 yards to the UL34, out of bounds at UL34. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.2%
(03:06) #49 M.Golding punt 43 yards to the USC23, out of bounds at USC23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:0795% → 96%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
95.0%
(02:59) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #27 R.Wormley caught at USC27, for 6 yards to the USC29 (#6 C.McPherson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+12
95.0%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #19 M.Bowman caught at USC28, for 12 yards to the USC41 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
95.0%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 5 yards gain to the USC46 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
95.0%
PENALTY USC False Start (#16 T.Hines) 5 yards from USC46 to USC41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+35
94.7%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #19 M.Bowman caught at UL46, for 35 yards to the UL24 (#44 J.St. Andre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
94.9%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL21 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+8
94.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 T.Mosley rush right for 19 yards gain (8) to the UL02 fumbled by #4 T.Mosley at UL02 forced by #11 B.Gordon Jr. recovered by USC #4 T.Mosley at UL02, End Of Play PENALTY USC Holding (#19 M.Bowman) 10 yards from UL13 to UL23Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
94.7%
(14:31) Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 2 yards gain to the UL21 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+12
94.4%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at UL14, for 12 yards to the UL09 (#10 A.Demery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.4%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 0 yards to the UL09 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.7%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #19 M.Bowman caught at UL00, for 9 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:31. #19 M.Bowman injured on the play #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:045% → 8%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
95.2%
(12:31) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 18 yards gain to the UL43 (#16 P.Brown; #6 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.9%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 4 yards gain to the UL47 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
94.7%
(11:34) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #10 R.Babineaux caught at USC49, for 8 yards to the USC45 (#8 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
94.6%
(10:58) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the USC39 (#17 D.Bryant) PENALTY USC Face Mask (#10 B.Shelby) 15 yards from USC39 to USC24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
94.3%
(10:36) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC23 (#8 D.Stephens II; #97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+15
94.6%
PENALTY UL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from USC23 to USC38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 24
OPP 38
+37
95.0%
(09:48) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #83 B.Chappell caught at USC24, for 37 yards to the USC01 (#9 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.3%
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:21. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 5:5895% → 95%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
94.6%
(09:21) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USC19 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
94.5%
(08:48) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Miller thrown to USC15Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+12
94.3%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC31, for 12 yards to the USC31 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
94.7%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 13 yards gain to the USC44 (#24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
94.9%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #84 T.Ashcraft thrown to UL45 PENALTY USC Holding (#77 A.Noa) 10 yards from USC44 to USC34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+2
94.5%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC36 (#21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+15
94.4%
(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush left for 15 yards gain to the UL49 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
94.5%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 10 yards gain to the UL39 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
94.7%
(05:32) PENALTY USC False Start (#68 H.Treter) 5 yards from UL39 to UL44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
94.5%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt thrown to UL39Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+16
94.5%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #19 M.Bowman caught at UL32, for 16 yards to the UL28 (#21 M.Eleam; #24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
94.7%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 9 yards gain to the UL19 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
94.6%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the UL19 (#9 L.Williams)Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
95.0%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at UL00, for 19 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:19, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT TD
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:515% → 4%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.7%
(03:19) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL26 (#97 J.Abasiri; #94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
94.7%
(02:41) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #10 R.Babineaux caught at UL34, for 14 yards to the UL40 (#16 P.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
94.4%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL41 (#94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
94.8%
(02:00) PENALTY UL False Start (#61 J.Mitchell) 5 yards from UL41 to UL36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+9
94.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 9 yards gain to the UL45 (#94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
94.5%
(01:50) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Smith thrown to UL48 broken up by #0 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+86
96.3%
(01:46) #49 M.Golding punt 41 yards to the USC14 #4 T.Mosley return 86 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:584% → 2%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.4%
(01:19) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 2 yards gain to the UL27 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
96.4%
(01:14) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL28 (#91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.4%
(01:09) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 0 yards to the UL28 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.6%
(00:23) #49 M.Golding punt 41 yards to the USC31 fair catch by #4 T.Mosley at USC31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0597% → 97%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
96.9%
(00:16) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #27 R.Wormley caught at USC24, for 12 yards to the USC43 (#26 K.Wilson; #9 L.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.0%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.0%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #4 T.Mosley thrown to USC41Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-1
96.8%
(00:04) Kneel down by USC at USC42 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:574% → 4%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UL26 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.4%
(14:26) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #9 K.Wade thrown to UL31Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
96.5%
(14:20) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 19 yards gain to the UL45 (#17 D.Bryant) PENALTY UL Holding (#57 Z.Alexander) 10 yards from UL26 to UL16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+7
96.5%
(13:52) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #15 J.Norris caught at UL15, for 7 yards to the UL23 (#15 J.Walker)Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
96.5%
(13:08) #49 M.Golding punt 18 yards to the UL41 #10 C.Simms return 0 yards to the UL41 (#4 P.Malbrue)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0397% → 99%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
97.4%
(12:58) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #24 C.Tabaracci caught at UL43, for 6 yards to the UL35 (#10 A.Demery)Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
97.5%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 1 yard gain to the UL34 (#6 C.McPherson)Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
97.5%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #85 T.Baker thrown to UL20 broken up by #11 B.Gordon Jr.Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+12
97.3%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #84 T.Ashcraft caught at UL22, for 12 yards to the UL22 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
97.5%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush right for 1 yard gain to the UL21 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
97.5%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush right for 0 yards to the UL21 (#35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
99.2%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep left to #4 T.Mosley caught at UL00, for 21 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:48, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:281% → 4%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+27
99.0%
(09:44) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #10 R.Babineaux caught at UL34, for 27 yards to the UL46 (#15 J.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.0%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the UL47 (#15 J.Walker; #10 B.Shelby)Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
99.0%
(08:32) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #9 K.Wade thrown to UL45Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+10
99.0%
(08:29) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 10 yards gain to the USC43 (#8 D.Stephens II; #45 J.Winfield), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC Face Mask (#15 J.Walker) 15 yards from USC43 to USC28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
98.9%
(08:07) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC26 (#94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
98.9%
(07:41) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #44 T.Gawlik caught at USC25, for 7 yards to the USC19 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
99.0%
(07:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC17 (#94 L.Wafle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.0%
(06:19) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 0 yards to the USC17 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
98.9%
(05:46) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #83 B.Chappell caught at USC18, for 1 yard to the USC16 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
99.2%
(05:06) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short middle to #9 K.Wade thrown to USC00Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+8
99.2%
(05:02) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 04:57 PENALTY USC Roughing The Kicker (#2 E.Hill IV) 8 yards from USC16 to USC08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.1%
(04:56) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USC01 (#0 J.Williams; #6 C.Pierce)Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
(04:11) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:07 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1798% → 98%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
97.6%
(04:02) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the USC17 (#8 K.Jackson)Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
97.6%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC21 (#9 L.Williams)Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+11
97.6%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #10 C.Simms caught at USC32, for 11 yards to the USC32 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
97.7%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush right for 4 yards gain to the USC36 (#9 L.Williams)Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
97.7%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #24 C.Tabaracci thrown to UL48Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
97.7%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #10 C.Simms thrown to USC43Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+2
97.5%
(01:50) #35 L.Carrigan punt 50 yards to the UL14 #11 B.Gordon Jr. return 2 yards to the UL16 (#21 R.Sermons)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:013% → 3%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.1%
(01:40) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep left to #9 K.Wade thrown to UL38Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
97.2%
(01:34) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #22 A.Reagan Jr. caught at UL10, for 1 yard to the UL17 (#8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
97.4%
(00:48) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right thrown to UL26Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+13
97.4%
(00:42) #49 M.Golding punt 36 yards to the USC47 #9 T.Anderson return 13 yards to the UL40 (#37 H.Kidder)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:1498% → 100%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
97.9%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 Z.Williams rush right for 7 yards loss to the UL47 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+3
98.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UL44 (#6 C.McPherson)Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+44
99.6%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #0 Z.Williams caught at UL20, for 44 yards to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:19, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UL Personal Foul (#11 B.Gordon Jr.) 15 yards from UL00 to UL03, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:451% → 3%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
99.5%
(14:19) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #44 T.Gawlik caught at UL44, for 29 yards to the USC46 (#6 C.Pierce), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.4%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush right for 8 yards gain to the USC38 (#25 M.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+9
99.4%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #83 B.Chappell caught at USC37, for 9 yards to the USC29 (#25 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
99.4%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 8 yards gain to the USC21 (#17 D.Bryant) PENALTY UL Holding (#59 A.Martinez) 10 yards from USC29 to USC39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+7
99.3%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #24 S.Blanco caught at USC43, for 7 yards to the USC32 (#38 I.Rubin)Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+32
97.4%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 32 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5399% → 100%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.6%
(11:27) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 3 yards gain to the USC28 (#68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
98.7%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 11 yards gain to the USC39 (#8 K.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
98.8%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 29 yards gain to the UL32 (#21 M.Eleam), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
98.8%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short left to #10 C.Simms caught at UL28, for 8 yards to the UL24 (#17 T.Chikere; #10 A.Demery)Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
98.8%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UL18 (#10 A.Demery), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
98.8%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush left for 6 yards gain to the UL12 (#80 L.Jones)Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 12 yards gain to the UL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:30, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:450% → 2%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(07:30) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 0 yards to the UL25 (#22 T.Ili)Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.9%
(06:48) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UL21 (#18 Z.Fisher), fumble by #7 L.Winfield recovered by UL #7 L.Winfield at UL21, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+24
99.9%
(06:08) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #10 R.Babineaux caught at UL17, for 24 yards to the UL45 (#34 J.Crowder), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.9%
(05:29) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush left for 19 yards gain to the USC36 (#22 T.Ili) PENALTY UL Holding (#61 J.Mitchell) 10 yards from UL45 to UL35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+12
99.9%
(05:07) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #82 Q.Coates caught at UL35, for 12 yards to the UL47 (#36 P.Dyer)Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+28
99.9%
(04:29) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 28 yards gain to the USC25 (#19 B.Lockhart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
99.9%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USC19 (#49 S.Katoanga; #14 T.Robinson)Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
99.9%
(03:05) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the USC14 (#49 S.Katoanga), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
98.0%
(02:45) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #10 R.Babineaux caught at USC00, for 14 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:38, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20Uncategorized
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5799% → 99%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
(02:38) Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USC31 (#21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.2%
(02:00) Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC34 (#99 A.Wright)Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.2%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC39 (#9 L.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.3%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush middle for 0 yards to the USC39 (#0 P.Ashe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:21
(09:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:21. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)
-2.7
TD · Q3 4:07
(04:11) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:07 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)
-2.7
TD · Q4 11:27
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 32 yards gain to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN
-1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com