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MD

Maryland 38 at UConn 14

CONN
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:18 · (05:18) #36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 37 yards NO GOOD (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare), clock 05:18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior−3.4Home team on offense−51.0Score differential−29.9Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−11.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:51: (07:56) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush left for 4 yards gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:51 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare) — MD win probability +5.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:04: (00:05) #36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 19 yards GOOD (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare), clock 00:04 — MD win probability +3.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:42: (08:47) #24 I.Howard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:42 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare) — MD win probability +8.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:29: (05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete deep left to #5 S.Porter caught at UM10, for 39 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:29, 1ST DOWN #98 J.O'Connor kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Warner, LS: #59 D.Laganga) — CONN win probability +8.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:53: (01:56) #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare) — MD win probability +9.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:45MD 4th & 4 at CONN 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40CONN 4th & 3 at MD 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:00MD 4th & 6 at MD 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54MD 4th & 2 at CONN 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:00CONN 4th & 15 at CONN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:56CONN 4th & 13 at CONN 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:21MD 4th & 1 at CONN 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−1.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:04MD 4th & 1 at CONN 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:35CONN 4th & 14 at CONN 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:55CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 34, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:12MD 4th & 24 at CONN 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:38CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 3, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:28CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 29, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:18MD 4th & 16 at CONN 19, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:41CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 7:51MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:42MD Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:29CONN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:53MD Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:57MD Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:0783% → 82%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.7%
(14:57) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UM24, for 2 yards to the UM27, out of bounds at UM27Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
16.9%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #2 K.Webb caught at UM32, for 8 yards to the UM35 (#12 S.Suchanic; #24 Z.Paret), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.1%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #13 C.Durr Jr. thrown to UM40 broken up by #12 S.SuchanicSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
17.2%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #8 P.Howard caught at UM35, for 5 yards to the UM40 (#4 B.Moore)Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
17.4%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UM45, for 6 yards to the UM46 (#24 Z.Paret), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
17.5%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UM45, for 3 yards to the UM49 (#4 B.Moore; #0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
17.6%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UC48 (#44 J.Lista; #0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
17.9%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short middle to #13 C.Durr Jr. thrown to UC35 broken up by #12 S.SuchanicSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
18.1%
(11:50) #34 B.McFerson punt 28 yards to the UC20 fair catch by #9 J.Allen at UC20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:5618% → 20%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.3%
(11:42) Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush middle for 0 yards to the UC20 (#98 E.Thomas; #1 D.Wingate)Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
18.4%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Christian thrown to UC25Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+12
18.5%
(11:01) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #83 X.Watson caught at UC28, for 12 yards to the UC32 (#6 J.Scruggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
18.8%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush right for 3 yards gain to the UC35 (#99 L.Johnson)Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
19.1%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short right to #19 J.Brown thrown to UC45 broken up by #33 M.DelhommeSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+10
19.1%
(10:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #3 K.Christian caught at UC34, for 10 yards to the UC45 (#1 D.Wingate), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
19.7%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #3 K.Christian caught at UC40, for 4 yards to the UC49 (#3 T.Reddick; #33 M.Delhomme)Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
20.0%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UM47 (#11 S.Stewart)Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-1
20.3%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 1 yard to the UM48 (#88 D.LeBlanc)Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
20.4%
(07:45) #49 T.Warner punt 38 yards to the UM10 fair catch by #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding at UM10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3680% → 78%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
20.2%
(07:40) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short right to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding thrown to UM15 broken up by #12 S.SuchanicSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
20.3%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #24 I.Howard caught at UM05, for 2 yards to the UM12 (#24 Z.Paret)Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+2
21.0%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #24 I.Howard caught at UM06, for 2 yards to the UM14 (#0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+18
21.6%
(06:08) #34 B.McFerson punt 36 yards to the UM50 #9 J.Allen return 18 yards to the UM32 (#3 T.Reddick) PENALTY UC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#9 J.Allen) 15 yards from UM32 to UM47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 1:1522% → 26%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
21.9%
(06:00) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UM38 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
22.4%
(05:15) No Huddle #3 K.Christian rush left for 2 yards gain to the UM36 (#6 J.Scruggs; #32 C.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
25.7%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete deep right to #2 J.Willoughby caught at UM00, for 36 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:39, 1ST DOWN #98 J.O'Connor kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Warner, LS: #59 D.Laganga)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0575% → 78%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
24.9%
(04:39) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #2 K.Webb caught at UM30, for 13 yards to the UM38 (#24 Z.Paret), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
24.8%
PENALTY UM False Start (#61 M.Hershey) 5 yards from UM38 to UM33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+12
25.4%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UM42, for 12 yards to the UM45 (#4 B.Moore)Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
24.9%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short middle to #8 P.Howard thrown to UM46 broken up by #37 H.PeggSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
25.0%
PENALTY UM False Start (#61 M.Hershey) 5 yards from UM45 to UM40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+60
22.3%
(03:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UC45, for 60 yards to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:24, 1ST DOWN #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:3923% → 25%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
22.7%
(03:18) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #80 A.Godavitarne caught at UC22, for 9 yards to the UC28 (#1 D.Wingate)Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
23.5%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush right for 2 yards gain to the UC30 (#6 J.Scruggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.5%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep right to #8 Z.Lang thrown to UM42Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+26
23.5%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 26 yards gain to the UM44 (#6 J.Scruggs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
25.0%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UC47 (#0 Z.Elee), fumble by #7 K.Osborne recovered by UM #56 D.Holmes at UC47, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3178% → 76%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
22.3%
(01:28) Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush right for 3 yards gain to the UC44 (#22 J.Martin)Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
22.6%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Williams rush left for 6 yards gain to the UC38 (#37 H.Pegg; #24 Z.Paret)Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-1
22.7%
(00:21) No Huddle #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UC39 (#37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+1
23.7%
(15:00) #7 M.Washington rush right for 1 yard gain to the UC38 (#24 Z.Paret; #11 A.Dunn), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5225% → 25%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
25.4%
(14:52) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep middle to #9 J.Allen thrown to UM30 PENALTY UM Roughing The Passer (#1 D.Wingate) 15 yards from UC38 to UM47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
26.3%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush left for 4 yards loss to the UC49 (#11 S.Stewart; #12 J.Shipps)Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+5
25.6%
PENALTY UC False Start (#8 C.Bell, Jr.) 5 yards from UC49 to UC44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+3
25.7%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush left for 3 yards gain to the UC47 (#24 A.Jackson)Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+1
25.5%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC48 (#1 D.Wingate)Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
25.4%
(13:05) #49 T.Warner punt 35 yards to the UM17 fair catch by #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding at UM17 PENALTY UM Holding (#21 J.Jenkins) 8 yards from UM16 to UM08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:0975% → 81%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
25.4%
(13:00) #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UM15 (#4 B.Moore) PENALTY UM Holding (#9 D.Fleming) 4 yards from UM08 to UM04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+6
25.8%
(12:42) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush right for 6 yards gain to the UM10 (#13 J.Price)Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+15
25.9%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete deep left to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding thrown to UM40, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UC Pass Interference (#12 S.Suchanic) 15 yards from UM10 to UM25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.8%
(12:02) #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UM34 (#4 B.Moore; #12 S.Suchanic)Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+24
25.5%
(11:23) #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UM45, for 24 yards to the UC42 (#12 S.Suchanic), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
24.9%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC40 (#0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
25.3%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #9 D.Fleming caught at UC33, for 7 yards to the UC33 (#0 K.Sherman; #44 J.Lista)Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
25.3%
(09:42) #24 I.Howard rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UC30 (#44 J.Lista), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
25.2%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UC31, for 5 yards to the UC25 (#13 J.Price)Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
25.2%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush right for 6 yards gain to the UC19 (#13 J.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
24.8%
(08:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #2 K.Webb thrown to UC03 QB hurried by #37 H.Pegg, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UC Pass Interference (#24 Z.Paret) 15 yards from UC19 to UC04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.1%
(07:56) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush left for 4 yards gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:51 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:4821% → 21%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.2%
(07:49) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush right for 2 yards gain to the UC27 (#21 J.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
21.5%
(07:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #11 R.Treadway caught at UC30, for 8 yards to the UC35 (#24 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
21.8%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush left for 5 yards gain (2) to the UC40 (#24 A.Jackson) PENALTY UC Holding (#11 R.Treadway) 10 yards from UC37 to UC27Similar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 18
OWN 27
+15
21.5%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short left to #83 X.Watson caught at UC30, for 15 yards to the UC42 (#14 S.Johnson)Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
23.3%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 C.Bowers rush left for 6 yards gain to the UC48 (#98 E.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
23.5%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UC45 (#88 D.LeBlanc)Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
22.5%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 0 yards to the UC45 (#11 S.Stewart)Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
21.8%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Brown thrown to UC50Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
21.3%
(04:05) #49 T.Warner punt 47 yards to the UM08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FG
21 plays · 91 yds · 3:4878% → 83%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
21.9%
(03:55) Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush left for 2 yards loss to the UM06 (#0 K.Sherman; #44 J.Lista)Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+15
21.5%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UM21 (#24 Z.Paret; #13 J.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
20.8%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete deep middle to #2 K.Webb thrown to UC25Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
21.0%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UM18, for 7 yards to the UM28 (#37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+17
20.5%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UM32, for 17 yards to the UM45, out of bounds at UM45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
20.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UC46, for 9 yards to the UC46 (#0 K.Sherman)Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
19.3%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short middle to #8 P.Howard thrown to UC42Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
19.4%
(01:38) Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 0 yards to the UC46 (#15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+10
19.6%
(01:28) Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UC36 (#7 T.McKinstry; #4 B.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
18.6%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #9 D.Fleming caught at UC30, for 12 yards to the UC24 (#13 J.Price), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
18.4%
(01:15) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #8 P.Howard caught at UC09, for 15 yards to the UC09 QB hurried by #15 A.Luqman (#20 L.Murphy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
18.0%
(01:05) Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UC05 (#24 Z.Paret)Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
17.7%
(00:59) Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush left for 4 yards gain to the UC01 (#37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.7%
(00:48) Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 0 yards to the UC01 (#20 L.Murphy)Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
17.0%
(00:05) #36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 19 yards GOOD (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare), clock 00:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1519% → 18%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
19.1%
(14:53) Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UC26 (#1 D.Wingate; #98 E.Thomas)Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
19.3%
(14:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep right to #14 C.Abshire thrown to UM45Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-7
18.5%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UC19 (#11 S.Stewart), fumble by #7 K.Osborne recovered by UC #78 I.Switzer at UC19, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
17.7%
(13:44) #49 T.Warner punt 52 yards to the UM29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:4481% → 91%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
19.2%
(13:34) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #2 K.Webb caught at UM32, for 9 yards to the UM38 (#24 Z.Paret)Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-6
18.1%
(13:09) Shotgun #7 M.Washington sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UM32 (#15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+30
19.2%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete deep right to #2 K.Webb caught at UC45, for 30 yards to the UC38 (#13 J.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
18.0%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #9 D.Fleming caught at UC34, for 4 yards to the UC34 (#4 B.Moore)Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+14
17.7%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UC20, for 14 yards to the UC20 (#24 Z.Paret), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
17.6%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC19 (#17 S.Riser-Pressley; #44 J.Lista)Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+6
17.7%
(10:36) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UC21, for 6 yards to the UC13 (#12 S.Suchanic)Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+5
18.5%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #24 I.Howard caught at UC19, for 5 yards to the UC08 (#5 R.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
17.8%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 I.Howard rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UC01 (#6 R.Dorilas; #24 Z.Paret)Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.3%
(08:47) #24 I.Howard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:42 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:0311% → 21%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
11.2%
(08:33) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #11 R.Treadway thrown to UC39 QB hurried by #40 N.TaylorSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
11.0%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush right for 8 yards gain to the UC31 (#40 N.Taylor)Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+2
11.5%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC33 (#40 N.Taylor; #11 S.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
11.1%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Christian rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC34 (#32 C.Smith; #40 N.Taylor)Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+20
10.9%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short right to #5 S.Porter caught at UC46, for 20 yards to the UM46 (#24 A.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
12.3%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush right for 7 yards gain to the UM39, out of bounds at UM39Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
20.5%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete deep left to #5 S.Porter caught at UM10, for 39 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:29, 1ST DOWN #98 J.O'Connor kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Warner, LS: #59 D.Laganga)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2882% → 94%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
17.8%
(05:29) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush left for 2 yards loss to the UM23 (#24 Z.Paret; #15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
17.9%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UM20, for 15 yards to the UM38 (#44 J.Lista), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
16.3%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UM35, for 0 yards to the UM38 (#37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
16.4%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UC46, for 16 yards to the UC46, out of bounds at UC46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
15.8%
(03:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at UC36, for 24 yards to the UC22 (#6 R.Dorilas; #44 J.Lista), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
15.2%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #11 R.Manning caught at UC18, for 16 yards to the UC06 (#20 L.Murphy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
15.1%
(02:16) #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC04 (#95 M.Hills III; #22 J.Martin) PENALTY UC Face Mask 2 yards from UC04 to UC02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.1%
(01:56) #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4610% → 9%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
10.0%
(01:44) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush left for 0 yards to the UC29 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
9.5%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UC27 (#56 D.Holmes, #57 B.Jenkins)Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+7
8.5%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush right for 7 yards gain to the UC34 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
8.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Allen thrown to UC50, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:0694% → 94%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
5.6%
(14:28) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UC29, for 0 yards to the UC34 (#4 B.Moore)Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-15
5.5%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #25 H.Dalton III caught at UC49, for 15 yards loss to the UC49 (#11 A.Dunn) PENALTY UM Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 25
OPP 49
+1
5.7%
(14:00) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short right to #25 H.Dalton III caught at UM48, for 1 yard to the UC48 (#37 H.Pegg)Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 24
OPP 48
0
6.1%
(13:19) #34 B.McFerson punt 47 yards to the UC01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:286% → 6%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
6.3%
(13:12) Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #83 X.Watson thrown to UC20 QB hurried by #11 S.StewartSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
6.2%
(13:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC03 (#32 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
5.9%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne rush middle for 0 yards to the UC03 (#0 Z.Elee; #11 S.Stewart)Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
5.5%
(11:45) #49 T.Warner punt 20 yards to the UC23 PENALTY UC Illegal Formation 5 yards from UC23 to UC18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:3495% → 99%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
4.7%
(11:38) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UC13 (#37 H.Pegg; #5 R.Williams)Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
1.5%
(11:00) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short middle to #13 C.Durr Jr. caught at UC01, for 13 yards to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:57, 1ST DOWN #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
1.9%
(10:54) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC26 (#44 J.Starlings; #0 Z.Elee)Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
1.8%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete short middle to #5 S.Porter caught at UC30, for 3 yards to the UC29 (#24 A.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
1.7%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep left to #8 Z.Lang thrown to UC50Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
1.7%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Willoughby thrown to UC35, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22MISSED FG
10 plays · 10 yds · 4:0399% → 99%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
1.3%
(09:28) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
1.3%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush left for 2 yards gain to the UC26 (#17 S.Riser-Pressley)Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+8
0.8%
(08:14) Shotgun #7 M.Washington rush right for 8 yards gain to the UC18 (#10 J.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.7%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 0 yards to the UC18 (#15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
0.8%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #2 K.Webb thrown to UC12 broken up by #6 R.Dorilas PENALTY UC Pass Interference (#6 R.Dorilas) 5 yards from UC18 to UC13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
0.6%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 6 yards loss to the UC19 (#0 K.Sherman; #15 A.Luqman)Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 16
OPP 19
0
0.6%
(06:17) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #2 K.Webb caught at UC20, for 0 yards to the UC19 fumbled by #2 K.Webb at UC15 forced by #0 K.Sherman recovered by UM #74 I.Wright at UC19, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 16
OPP 19
0
0.6%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #1 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding thrown to UC13 broken up by #6 R.DorilasSimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 16
OPP 19
+37
0.7%
(05:18) #36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 37 yards NO GOOD (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare), clock 05:18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
1.0%
(05:17) Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush left for 0 yards to the UC20 (#40 N.Taylor)Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.9%
(04:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 T.Cornist rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC22 (#3 T.Reddick)Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
0.9%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass incomplete deep left to #81 L.Barnes thrown to UC45Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
0.9%
(03:49) #49 T.Warner punt 38 yards to the UM40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24END OF HALF
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.5%
(03:39) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UM42 (#9 Z.Saez)Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
0.5%
(02:57) Shotgun #6 C.Williams pass complete short right to #17 J.Kitchens caught at UM38, for 3 yards to the UM45 (#18 K.Hicks)Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+14
0.4%
(02:19) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UC41 (#7 T.McKinstry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
0.4%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 C.Williams rush left for 13 yards gain to the UC28 (#22 J.Martin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
0.4%
(01:25) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UC24 (#18 K.Hicks)Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+4
0.4%
(00:41) Shotgun #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UC20 (#20 L.Murphy; #55 A.Laurich)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:53
(01:56) #25 H.Dalton III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare)
-9.1
TD · Q3 8:42
(08:47) #24 I.Howard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:42 #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #97 L.O'Hare)
-8.5
TD · Q3 5:29
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Osborne pass complete deep left to #5 S.Porter caught at UM10, for 39 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:29, 1ST DOWN #98 J.O'Connor kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Warner, LS: #59 D.Laganga)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com