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WIS

Wisconsin 13 at Notre Dame 41

ND
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 6, 2026 · Lambeau Field
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:56 · (04:02) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND44 (#8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+37.5Home team on offense+0.7Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:22: (00:26) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #88 J.Flanigan caught at Wis02, for 3 yards to the Wis00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +1.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:36: (12:41) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete deep right to #4 M.Coleman caught at UND00, for 28 yards to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:36, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe) — WIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:52: DJ McKinney 55 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Porath Kick) — ND win probability +5.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:14: (00:16) #97 G.Lahm field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe), clock 00:14 — WIS win probability +1.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:48: (10:50) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci) — ND win probability +2.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:43WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57ND 4th & 15 at ND 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:32WIS 4th & 6 at ND 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:56ND 4th & 1 at ND 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31ND 4th & 4 at WIS 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:41WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:09ND 4th & 6 at ND 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:53ND 4th & 5 at WIS 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:55WIS 4th & 10 at ND 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:22ND 4th & 9 at ND 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:46WIS 4th & 16 at ND 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:37WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:14WIS 4th & 4 at ND 18, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.2%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57WIS 4th & 7 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:22ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:36WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:52ND Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:48ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:51ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:177% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Wis26 (#95 B.Young; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
92.5%
(14:17) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush right for 5 yards gain to the Wis31 (#15 L.Moore)Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
92.3%
(13:34) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at Wis30, for 3 yards to the Wis34 (#15 L.Moore)Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.2%
(12:46) #91 S.West punt 45 yards to the UND21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:4692% → 92%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
92.2%
(12:43) PENALTY UND False Start (#70 A.Craig) 5 yards from UND21 to UND16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
92.1%
(12:43) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Faison thrown to UND37Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+3
92.1%
(12:37) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 3 yards gain to the UND19 (#30 C.Perkins)Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
92.0%
PENALTY Wis Offside (#7 T.Fearbry) 5 yards from UND19 to UND24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-8
91.7%
(11:52) Shotgun #13 C.Carr sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UND16 (#15 S.Cheeks), fumble by #13 C.Carr recovered by UND #71 S.Prescod at UND16, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
91.6%
(11:07) #39 J.Scaife punt 21 yards to the UND37 blocked by #14 L.Danitz. The previous play is under automatic review - "Too many players on the field". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:219% → 10%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.5%
(10:57) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #89 J.Harris thrown to UND35 broken up by #9 B.JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
91.5%
(10:53) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UND33 (#4 J.Ausberry; #8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
91.3%
(10:08) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush left for 7 yards gain to the UND26 (#0 T.Gray; #8 A.Shuler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
90.9%
(09:25) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush left for 0 yards to the UND26 (#3 J.Sneed; #4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+13
90.6%
(08:47) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #2 C.Brooks Jr. caught at UND17, for 13 yards to the UND13 (#9 B.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
90.4%
(08:06) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush right for 2 yards gain to the UND11 (#15 L.Moore)Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
90.1%
(07:23) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND09 (#34 D.Bowen; #47 J.Onye)Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
90.0%
(06:39) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #82 E.Bork thrown to UND00Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
90.0%
(06:34) #97 G.Lahm field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe), clock 06:32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:4691% → 89%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
90.5%
(06:27) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at UND24, for 15 yards to the UND33 (#6 J.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.4%
(05:52) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the UND38 (#2 J.Robinson)Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
90.5%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 3 yards gain to the UND41 (#0 J.Boone)Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
90.1%
(04:49) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UND42 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
89.8%
(04:02) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND44 (#8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
90.0%
(03:29) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UND50, for 9 yards to the Wis47 (#2 J.Robinson; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+7
90.0%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #88 J.Flanigan caught at Wis42, for 7 yards to the Wis40 (#2 J.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.9%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #88 J.Flanigan thrown to Wis40 broken up by #5 B.WestSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
89.8%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Faison thrown to Wis42 broken up by #5 B.WestSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+6
89.6%
(02:20) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #1 J.Greathouse caught at Wis40, for 6 yards to the Wis34 (#29 M.Jung)Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
89.3%
(01:31) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 01:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:0390% → 91%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
89.5%
(01:28) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Faison thrown to Wis08Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
89.5%
(01:24) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the Wis11 (#8 M.Posa) PENALTY Wis UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#8 M.Posa) 5 yards from Wis11 to Wis06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
89.4%
(01:00) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the Wis03 (#91 H.Russell IV)Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.0%
(00:26) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #88 J.Flanigan caught at Wis02, for 3 yards to the Wis00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:419% → 9%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.7%
(00:22) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush right for 4 yards gain to the Wis29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
90.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #13 E.Hilton Jr. thrown to Wis40 broken up by #12 J.SandersSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
90.7%
(14:56) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #0 T.Henry thrown to Wis33 broken up by #12 J.SandersSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
90.9%
(14:53) #91 S.West punt 70 yards to the UND01, out of bounds at UND01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2690% → 90%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
90.3%
(14:41) #13 C.Carr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND03 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
90.2%
(14:04) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 2 yards gain to the UND05 (#8 M.Posa; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
89.9%
(13:20) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Graham thrown to UND09 broken up by #29 M.JungSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+3
89.6%
(13:16) #39 J.Scaife punt 46 yards to the Wis49 #0 T.Henry return 3 yards to the UND48 (#96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:2811% → 15%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
89.5%
(13:09) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush left for 5 yards gain to the UND43 (#15 L.Moore), out of bounds PENALTY UND Personal Foul (#88 A.Mukam) 15 yards from UND43 to UND28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
85.2%
(12:41) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete deep right to #4 M.Coleman caught at UND00, for 28 yards to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:36, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:3387% → 87%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.2%
(12:36) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #21 K.Young caught at UND25, for 11 yards to the UND36 (#29 M.Jung; #44 C.Catalano), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.3%
(11:53) Shotgun #21 K.Young rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UND39 (#15 S.Cheeks)Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+18
87.3%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #14 M.Gilbert caught at Wis43, for 18 yards to the Wis43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
87.5%
(10:48) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at Wis26, for 30 yards to the Wis13 (#29 M.Jung), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
87.6%
(10:08) Shotgun #21 K.Young rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Wis11 (#8 M.Posa; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
87.5%
(09:35) Shotgun #21 K.Young rush right for 3 yards gain to the Wis08 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
86.9%
(09:00) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #14 M.Gilbert thrown to Wis05 broken up by #2 J.RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
87.4%
(08:57) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 08:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:5112% → 12%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.3%
(08:53) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush right for 6 yards gain to the Wis31 (#29 C.Gray), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
88.0%
(08:19) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at Wis39, for 8 yards to the Wis39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.7%
(07:37) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Brooks Jr. thrown to UND43 broken up by #2 D.McKinneySimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
87.8%
(07:33) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Wis44 (#0 T.Gray; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+20
87.3%
(06:51) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #13 E.Hilton Jr. caught at Wis48, for 20 yards to the UND36 (#8 A.Shuler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
86.6%
(06:06) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UND39 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+3
86.8%
(05:25) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #89 J.Harris caught at UND38, for 3 yards to the UND36 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
86.7%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #7 S.Rigby thrown to UND24 broken up by #15 L.MooreSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
88.1%
(05:03) #91 S.West punt 36 yards to the UND00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2887% → 86%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.4%
(04:55) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the UND23 (#5 B.West; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
87.2%
(04:20) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #3 M.Graham caught at UND40, for 17 yards to the UND40 (#29 M.Jung; #5 B.West) PENALTY UND Holding (#54 A.Knapp) 10 yards from UND23 to UND13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+1
87.1%
(03:54) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UND14, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+7
86.4%
(03:14) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 N.James Jr. caught at UND10, for 7 yards to the UND21 (#5 B.West; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
85.5%
(02:28) #39 J.Scaife punt 41 yards to the Wis38 fair catch by #0 T.Henry at Wis38 PENALTY Wis Holding (#2 J.Robinson) 10 yards from Wis38 to Wis28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 1:2613% → 12%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
87.3%
(02:22) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short middle to #85 G.Stec caught at Wis34, for 6 yards to the Wis34 (#28 L.Talich)Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
86.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Wis40 (#95 B.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+4
84.5%
(01:26) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #0 T.Henry caught at Wis36, for 4 yards to the Wis44 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
86.9%
(01:21) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #0 T.Henry caught at Wis43, for 15 yards to the UND41 (#29 C.Gray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.3%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #4 M.Coleman thrown to UND31 QB hurried by #5 B.TraoreSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
86.5%
(01:03) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UND42 (#95 B.Young)Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
87.3%
(00:58) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short left to #0 T.Henry thrown to UND45Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 11
OPP 42
+5
88.1%
(00:55) PENALTY Wis Delay Of Game 5 yards from UND42 to UND47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 16
OPP 47
+12
88.3%
(00:55) #91 S.West punt 36 yards to the UND11 #6 J.Faison return 15 yards to the UND26 (#1 E.Fletcher) PENALTY UND Personal Foul (#95 B.Young) 11 yard from UND23 to UND12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
86.7%
(00:46) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right thrown to UND12 broken up by #15 S.CheeksSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
86.6%
(00:39) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 2 yards gain to the UND14 (#51 M.Garner; #8 M.Posa)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:2690% → 91%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
89.7%
(14:54) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 4 yards gain to the UND34 (#0 J.Boone; #91 H.Russell IV)Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
89.8%
(14:13) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #87 C.Flanagan caught at UND39, for 5 yards to the UND39 (#44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
89.7%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 2 yards gain to the UND41 (#0 J.Boone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
90.2%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #22 A.Williams caught at UND43, for 11 yards to the Wis48 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
90.5%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #14 M.Gilbert caught at Wis44, for 7 yards to the Wis41 (#2 J.Robinson; #8 M.Posa)Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+7
90.4%
(12:04) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the Wis34 (#0 J.Boone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
90.7%
(11:29) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #2 N.James Jr. caught at Wis32, for 28 yards to the Wis06 (#4 M.Burks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.6%
(10:48) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 0 yards to the Wis06 (#51 M.Garner) PENALTY Wis Illegal Substitution 3 yards from Wis06 to Wis03. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
90.6%
(10:32) #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left thrown to Wis00 QB hurried by #44 C.CatalanoSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.6%
(10:28) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Wis00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:23 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15INT TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2411% → 6%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.1%
(10:23) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush left for 3 yards gain to the WIS28 (#7 F.Brewu; #4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
89.1%
(09:46) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #2 C.Brooks Jr. caught at WIS38, for 17 yards to the WIS45 (#4 J.Ausberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
88.4%
(09:05) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #2 C.Brooks Jr. thrown to UND40Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-55
94.2%
DJ McKinney 55 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Porath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16FG
17 plays · 47 yds · 8:326% → 6%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.6%
(08:52) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush right for 1 yard gain to the WIS36 (#10 L.Thomas)Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
93.8%
(08:10) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush left for 6 yards gain to the WIS42 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
94.2%
(07:26) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush right for 2 yards gain to the WIS44 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
94.3%
(06:42) #3 A.Sama rush left for 2 yards gain to the WIS46 (#0 T.Gray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
94.5%
(06:01) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush right for 3 yards loss to the WIS43 (#5 B.Traore) PENALTY WIS Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+6
95.0%
(05:35) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #0 T.Henry caught at WIS43, for 6 yards to the WIS49 (#28 L.Talich)Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+17
94.9%
(04:50) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #4 M.Coleman caught at UND35, for 17 yards to the UND34 (#28 L.Talich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
94.3%
(04:08) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UND26 (#95 B.Young)Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
94.1%
(03:29) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush left for 0 yards to the UND26 (#8 A.Shuler), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+2
94.6%
(02:51) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UND24 (#88 A.Mukam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
94.2%
(02:15) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush left for 4 yards gain to the UND20 (#8 A.Shuler; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
94.3%
(01:30) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND19 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+1
95.4%
(00:51) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush left for 1 yard gain to the UND18 (#15 L.Moore), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
94.0%
(00:16) #97 G.Lahm field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe), clock 00:14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1597% → 100%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
96.5%
(00:14) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at UND40, for 29 yards to the WIS46 (#5 B.West; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
96.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at WIS42, for 7 yards to the WIS39 (#6 J.Scott)Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
96.9%
(14:23) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS36 (#51 M.Garner; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
97.0%
(13:39) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 12 yards gain to the WIS24 (#51 M.Garner; #21 C.Skanes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
97.2%
(12:55) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WIS22 (#91 H.Russell IV; #44 C.Catalano)Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+16
97.3%
(12:15) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 16 yards gain to the WIS06 (#51 M.Garner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.4%
(11:32) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 1 yard gain to the WIS05 (#44 C.Catalano; #30 C.Perkins)Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
(10:50) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:301% → 1%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.1%
(10:43) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short middle to #85 G.Stec caught at WIS28, for 6 yards to the WIS29 (#4 J.Ausberry; #34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+18
99.1%
(10:05) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #4 M.Coleman caught at WIS36, for 18 yards to the WIS47 (#28 L.Talich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.1%
(09:26) Shotgun #3 A.Sama rush middle for 1 yard loss to the WIS46 (#0 T.Gray; #44 R.Dunham)Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+4
99.2%
(08:50) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WIS50 (#0 T.Gray; #7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 7
50
0
99.2%
(08:06) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete short right to #0 T.Henry thrown to UND45Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 7
50
0
99.2%
(08:03) #91 S.West punt 38 yards to the UND12 fair catch by #6 J.Faison at UND12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 6:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.8%
(07:57) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 4 yards gain to the UND16 (#7 T.Fearbry; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+8
99.9%
(07:14) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #87 C.Flanagan caught at UND19, for 8 yards to the UND24 (#44 C.Catalano; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.8%
(06:39) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left thrown to UND44 QB hurried by #51 M.GarnerSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
99.8%
(06:32) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UND37 (#29 M.Jung), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
(05:56) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Faison thrown to WIS40Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
(05:50) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 4 yards gain to the UND41 (#12 N.Clayton)Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+15
99.8%
(05:18) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #3 M.Graham thrown to WIS30 PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (#5 B.West) 15 yards from UND41 to WIS44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.9%
(05:13) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the WIS41 (#8 M.Posa; #29 M.Jung)Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
99.9%
(04:29) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #7 T.Washington caught at WIS35, for 6 yards to the WIS35 (#2 J.Robinson)Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
(03:53) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WIS34 (#97 J.Poyser; #8 M.Posa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
(03:12) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #2 N.James Jr. caught at WIS30, for 4 yards to the WIS30 (#2 J.Robinson)Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
(02:38) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the WIS28 (#8 M.Posa)Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+28
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #2 N.James Jr. caught at WIS24, for 28 yards to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:51, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20END OF HALF
11 plays · 47 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
100.0%
(01:47) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #4 M.Coleman caught at WIS37, for 13 yards to the WIS37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
100.0%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #85 G.Stec caught at WIS45, for 8 yards to the WIS45 (#4 J.Ausberry), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
100.0%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UND49 (#4 J.Ausberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
100.0%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #6 D.Dupree caught at WIS48, for 7 yards to the UND42 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-3
100.0%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UND45 (#7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+8
100.0%
(00:37) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #2 C.Brooks Jr. caught at UND37, for 8 yards to the UND37 (#12 J.Sanders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-9
100.0%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UND46 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+17
100.0%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short left to #0 T.Henry caught at UND29, for 17 yards to the UND29, out of bounds at UND29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:52
DJ McKinney 55 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Porath Kick)
+5.8
TD · Q2 12:36
(12:41) Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete deep right to #4 M.Coleman caught at UND00, for 28 yards to the UND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:36, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Lahm kick attempt good (H: #91 S.West, LS: #56 J.Roe)
-4.3
TD · Q4 10:48
(10:50) Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the WIS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:48 #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com