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FRES

Fresno State 0 at USC 39

USC
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:53 · (15:00) #35 L.Carrigan punt 45 yards to the FST00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+15.0Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+24.1Blowout margin+10.9Garbage-time factor+10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:27: (12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at FST39, for 68 yards to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:27, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown) — USC win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q2 7:09: Team Safety — USC win probability +0.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:53: (07:03) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at FST50, for 22 yards to the FST43 (#4 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWN — USC win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:07: J. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 9 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK) — USC win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:14: W. Jordan run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK) — USC win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:56USC 4th & 5 at FRES 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:12FRES 4th & 6 at USC 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:53FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:12USC 4th & 1 at FRES 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:20FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:53USC 4th & 16 at FRES 45, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:33FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 37, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 0:36FRES 4th & 8 at USC 8, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:27USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:27USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:07USC Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14USC Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:46USC Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:2594% → 93%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
94.0%
(14:56) Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 1 yard loss to the USC17 (#1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+2
93.9%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC19 (#35 T.Khajavi; #8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+9
93.8%
(14:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at USC27, for 9 yards to the USC28 (#31 K.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
93.7%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #2 W.Jordan caught at USC22, for 2 yards to the USC30 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+27
93.5%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #85 T.Baker caught at USC38, for 27 yards to the FST43 (#37 R.Wilson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
93.5%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #19 M.Bowman caught at FST38, for 5 yards to the FST38 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
93.4%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 0 yards to the FST38 (#1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
93.2%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #4 T.Mosley thrown to FST27Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+31
93.1%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at FST07, for 31 yards to the FST07, out of bounds at FST07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
93.2%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 2 yards gain to the FST05 (#8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
93.0%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 3 yards loss to the FST08 (#6 J.Jacks; #33 T.Powell)Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.4%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #16 T.Hines caught at FST00, for 8 yards to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:27 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:517% → 8%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.2%
(09:24) #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST15 QB hurried by #7 A.GrahamSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.2%
(09:19) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST22 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+13
93.1%
(08:43) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #1 J.McClain caught at FST35, for 13 yards to the FST35, out of bounds at FST35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.0%
(08:08) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush left for 0 yards to the FST35 (#8 D.Stephens II; #94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
92.9%
(07:30) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short middle to #86 G.Correia caught at FST44, for 12 yards to the FST47 (#0 J.Williams; #6 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
92.6%
(06:54) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST48 (#8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
92.5%
(06:15) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USC46 (#95 J.Ramos)Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
92.3%
(05:34) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass intercepted by #16 P.Brown at USC15, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:5193% → 92%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
92.6%
(05:28) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USC24 (#56 J.Satele) PENALTY USC Illegal Shift 5 yards from USC15 to USC10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+4
92.5%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 4 yards gain to the USC14 (#18 L.Studt; #5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+15
92.4%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #19 M.Bowman caught at USC25, for 15 yards to the USC29 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
92.4%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USC36 (#11 D.Hampsten; #5 S.Harris)Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+11
92.5%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #10 C.Simms caught at USC34, for 11 yards to the USC47 (#31 K.Harris), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
92.4%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #2 W.Jordan caught at USC40, for 10 yards to the FST43 fumbled by #2 W.Jordan at FST43 forced by #11 D.Hampsten recovered by FST #35 T.Khajavi at FST43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:148% → 9%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
91.7%
(02:32) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush left for 5 yards gain to the FST48 (#7 A.Graham; #8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
91.4%
(01:54) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #2 R.Luke thrown to FST45Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+6
91.4%
(01:50) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short left to #0 E.Avit caught at USC46, for 6 yards to the USC46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
91.2%
(01:11) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC41 (#7 A.Graham; #6 C.Pierce)Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
91.0%
(00:33) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC39 (#1 K.Crawford; #17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
90.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 K.Martin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC37 (#17 D.Bryant; #0 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 14:39
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+5
91.1%
PENALTY FST False Start (#65 J.Leaupepetele) 5 yards from USC37 to USC42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
91.2%
(14:20) #49 C.Lawrence punt 25 yards to the USC17 fair catch by #4 T.Mosley at USC17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:3991% → 94%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
91.4%
(14:12) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USC20 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+10
91.3%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #19 M.Bowman caught at USC28, for 10 yards to the USC30 (#1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.3%
(13:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC32 (#9 M.Xepera; #35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+68
93.5%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at FST39, for 68 yards to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:27, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:277% → 7%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.9%
(12:27) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #2 R.Luke caught at FST28, for 7 yards to the FST32 (#15 J.Walker). #65 J.Leaupepetele injured on the playSimilar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
92.7%
(11:53) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush right for 0 yards to the FST32 (#94 L.Wafle), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
92.8%
(11:08) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST36 QB hurried by #97 J.AbasiriSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+19
92.9%
(11:04) #49 C.Lawrence punt 42 yards to the USC26 #4 T.Mosley return 19 yards to the USC45 (#36 T.Nix; #52 E.Rossetti)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:3494% → 93%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
93.8%
(10:53) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #0 Z.Williams caught at FST46, for 23 yards to the FST32 (#37 R.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
93.8%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 10 yards gain to the FST22 (#20 R.Regan), 1ST DOWN. #37 R.Wilson injured on the playSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
93.8%
(09:54) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 4 yards gain to the FST18 (#6 J.Jacks; #56 J.Satele)Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
93.8%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at FST16, for 5 yards to the FST13 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
93.6%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 0 yards to the FST13 (#35 T.Khajavi; #1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
93.0%
(08:20) No Huddle #14 J.Maiava rush middle for 0 yards to the FST13 (#6 J.Jacks; #20 R.Regan), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8SF
3 plays · -13 yds · 1:007% → 6%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
92.8%
(08:12) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FST11 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #7 A.Graham)Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 11
-4
92.9%
(07:32) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short middle thrown to FST07 QB hurried by #97 J.Abasiri PENALTY FST Intentional Grounding (#7 J.Mandal)Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 22
OWN 1
0
93.7%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:4695% → 97%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
94.5%
(07:03) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at FST50, for 22 yards to the FST43 (#4 E.Tierney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
94.7%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at FST47, for 9 yards to the FST34 (#4 E.Tierney)Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+9
94.7%
(05:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FST25 (#33 T.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
94.7%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 16 yards gain to the FST09 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.2%
J. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 9 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:383% → 3%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
96.7%
(04:02) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep right to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST45 PENALTY USC Roughing The Passer (#94 L.Wafle) 15 yards from FST19 to FST34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
96.6%
(03:54) #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST38 (#1 K.Crawford; #0 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
96.6%
(03:08) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST41 (#18 Z.Fisher; #88 F.Boucard)Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
96.7%
(02:31) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal sacked for loss of 3 yards to the FST38 (#9 K.Urlacher), fumble by #7 J.Mandal recovered by USC #88 F.Boucard at FST38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:0397% → 99%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
97.3%
(02:24) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 9 yards gain to the FST29 (#4 E.Tierney; #33 T.Powell)Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
97.6%
(02:00) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FST24 (#8 M.Owusu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
97.6%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the FST22 (#35 T.Khajavi; #1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+20
97.7%
(00:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at FST17, for 20 yards to the FST02 (#1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWN. #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt injured on the playSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
W. Jordan run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.2%
(00:14) Kneel down by Fresno State at FST24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST29 (#17 D.Bryant; #91 A.VanSumeren)Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.1%
(14:19) Shotgun #6 B.Donelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST30 (#17 D.Bryant; #18 Z.Fisher)Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.2%
(13:35) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short middle to #5 J.Freeman thrown to FST36Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-3
99.3%
(13:31) #49 C.Lawrence punt 48 yards to the USC22 #4 T.Mosley return for loss of 3 yards to the USC19 (#3 J.Carrillo) PENALTY USC Illegal Block in Back (#15 J.Walker) 9 yards from USC19 to USC10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FUMBLE
14 plays · 83 yds · 7:5699% → 100%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
99.3%
(13:20) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USC09 (#11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+30
99.3%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at USC06, for 30 yards to the USC39 (#5 S.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.4%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 4 yards gain to the USC43 (#35 T.Khajavi)Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
99.4%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #8 K.Miller caught at USC44, for 6 yards to the USC49 (#1 K.Thunderbird; #8 M.Owusu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.5%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short middle to #88 T.Tupou thrown to FST34Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
99.5%
(10:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #16 T.Hines caught at FST41, for 10 yards to the FST41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
99.6%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #23 W.Matthews caught at FST36, for 12 yards to the FST29 (#1 K.Thunderbird), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.6%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass intercepted by #31 K.Harris at FST08 #31 K.Harris return 78 yards to the USC14 (#2 W.Jordan) PENALTY FST Offside (#95 M.Noonan) 5 yards from FST29 to FST24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 5
OPP 24
0
99.6%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 0 yards to the FST24 (#8 M.Owusu; #18 L.Studt)Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
99.6%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FST23 (#11 D.Hampsten)Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+4
99.6%
(07:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #1 E.Feaster caught at FST19, for 4 yards to the FST19, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
99.7%
(06:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 13 yards gain to the FST06 (#4 E.Tierney; #6 J.Jacks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
99.7%
(06:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 4 yards loss to the FST10 (#1 K.Thunderbird)Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.7%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at FST11, for 3 yards to the FST07 fumbled by #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt at FST07 forced by #0 D.Laffitte recovered by FST #20 R.Regan at FST07, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15SF
1 play · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
99.3%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 5:09100% → 100%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.7%
(05:09) Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 15 yards gain to the USC36 (#4 E.Tierney; #56 J.Satele), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.7%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USC49 (#20 R.Regan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.7%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC50 (#0 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 9
50
+11
99.8%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short right to #0 Z.Williams caught at FST39, for 11 yards to the FST39 (#20 R.Regan; #18 L.Studt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.8%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 5 yards loss to the FST44 (#6 J.Jacks)Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
99.8%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short right to #8 K.Miller caught at USC49, for 0 yards to the FST44 (#18 L.Studt; #99 L.Goodspeed)Similar
Q3 0:44
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short left to #24 C.Tabaracci caught at FST45, for 4 yards to the FST40 (#5 S.Harris)Similar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 11
OPP 40
+5
99.8%
(00:03) PENALTY USC False Start (#10 C.Simms) 5 yards from FST40 to FST45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
99.8%
(15:00) #35 L.Carrigan punt 45 yards to the FST00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
(14:53) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush left for 3 yards gain to the FST23 (#21 R.Sermons)Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
(14:21) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST25 (#15 J.Walker)Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
(13:41) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete deep middle to #0 E.Avit thrown to FST45 PENALTY USC Holding (#34 J.Crowder) 10 yards from FST25 to FST35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
(13:37) Shotgun #24 J.Gillick rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST37 (#88 F.Boucard; #49 S.Katoanga)Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
(12:58) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left to #1 J.McClain thrown to FST47Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
(12:54) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short left thrown to FST37 QB hurried by #14 T.RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
(12:44) #49 C.Lawrence punt 47 yards to the USC16 #0 Z.Williams return 5 yards to the USC21 (#42 L.Blumling; #3 J.Carrillo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 6:36100% → 100%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+34
99.9%
(12:33) Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short left to #10 C.Simms caught at USC31, for 34 yards to the FST45 (#20 R.Regan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST41 (#99 L.Goodspeed; #7 L.Mouzon). #99 L.Goodspeed injured on the playSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
(11:00) Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST38 (#8 M.Owusu; #0 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+7
99.9%
(10:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short middle to #27 R.Wormley caught at FST35, for 7 yards to the FST31 (#36 T.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.9%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FST27 (#6 J.Jacks; #8 M.Owusu)Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
(08:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Redeaux rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FST25 (#0 D.Laffitte)Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+7
99.9%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short right to #0 Z.Williams caught at FST25, for 7 yards to the FST18 (#25 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.9%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush right for 10 yards gain to the FST08 (#3 J.Carrillo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.9%
(06:36) Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST05 (#6 J.Jacks; #95 M.Noonan)Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
(05:52) Shotgun #6 D.Redeaux rush left for 5 yards gain to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:46 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:030% → 0%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
(05:46) Shotgun #41 A.Chavez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FST28 (#22 T.Ili)Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 0
+8
100.0%
(05:07) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FST36 (#9 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
100.0%
(04:30) Shotgun #2 R.Luke rush right for 1 yard gain to the FST37 (#52 T.Topui Jr.; #95 J.Ramos)Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
100.0%
(03:51) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 11 yards gain to the FST48 (#38 I.Rubin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
100.0%
(03:15) #27 T.Thomas rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USC43 (#22 T.Ili; #28 C.Pierce)Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+17
100.0%
(02:33) #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #19 H.Duvall caught at USC26, for 17 yards to the USC26, out of bounds at USC26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
100.0%
(02:00) #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #19 H.Duvall caught at USC22, for 17 yards to the USC09 (#28 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
100.0%
(01:35) #7 J.Mandal rush middle for 4 yards loss to the USC13 (#38 I.Rubin)Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
100.0%
(00:54) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass complete short right to #11 J.Farrar caught at USC08, for 5 yards to the USC08 (#22 T.Ili), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
100.0%
(00:49) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal pass incomplete short right to #27 T.Thomas thrown to USC00Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
100.0%
(00:41) Shotgun #7 J.Mandal sacked for loss of 7 yards to the USC15 (#95 J.Ramos), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
100.0%
(00:36) Kneel down by USC at USC14 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:07
J. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 9 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 12:27
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at FST39, for 68 yards to the FST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:27, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)
+2.3
TD · Q2 0:14
W. Jordan run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com