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MRSH

Marshall 0 at Penn State 45

PSU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:36 · #38 N.Tiyce punt 42 yards to the MAR01
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+10.5Home team on offense+33.0Score differential+28.0Blowout margin+14.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.5Garbage-time factor+11.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 12:26: #94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 12:26 — MRSH win probability +0.5 pts (now 11%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:49: No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at MAR28, for 25 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:49, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick) — PSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:27: No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU10, for 2 yards to the PSU15 (#3 R.Hinton) — PSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:18: Benjamin Brahmer 8 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick) — PSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:14: No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #2 Z.Robinson caught at MAR25, for 39 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:14, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick) — PSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:26PSU 4th & 3 at MRSH 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 30, down 10
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:27MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 38, down 17
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 45, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:47MRSH 4th & 11 at PSU 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 19, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:27MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:28PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.7%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:06MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:55MRSH 4th & 2 at PSU 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:23MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 39, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:36PSU 4th & 3 at MRSH 43, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:17PSU 4th & 1 at MRSH 11, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:02MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 14, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:55PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 31, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 1:18PSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:14PSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:16PSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:59PSU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3490% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
90.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MAR47 (#5 J.Gilmore; #27 C.Lewis)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+20
90.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #0 C.Sowell caught at MAR37, for 20 yards to the MAR27 (#5 J.Gilmore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.0%
No Huddle #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MAR21 (#17 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
90.0%
Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short middle to #4 B.Eskildsen thrown to MAR13 broken up by #44 K.Hardge IISimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+1
90.0%
Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MAR20 (#0 C.Clark-Glover)Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
89.5%
#94 R.Barker field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick), clock 12:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5111% → 11%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to #81 T.Payne caught at MAR23, for 3 yards to the MAR28 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
89.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Barbie rush left for 4 yards gain to the MAR32 (#3 J.Patton)Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
89.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short left to #5 X.Turner-Bradshaw caught at MAR31, for 2 yards loss to the MAR30 (#17 J.Zayas)Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
89.1%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 32 yards to the PSU38, out of bounds at PSU38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 2:0089% → 89%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
89.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #0 C.Sowell caught at PSU42, for 13 yards to the MAR49 (#8 E.Pleasant III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
89.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MAR44 (#6 J.Marshall)Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
89.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAR42 (#52 M.Warren; #17 D.Smith)Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+42
89.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #6 K.Howard caught at MAR25, for 42 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:35, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1611% → 11%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
89.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Barbie rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MAR25 (#26 C.Smith; #7 Z.Tracy)Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
89.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Barbie thrown to MAR23 broken up by #8 K.EbelSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
89.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short left to #81 T.Payne caught at MAR30, for 5 yards to the MAR30 (#31 M.Neal), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+9
89.0%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 45 yards to the PSU25 #2 Z.Robinson return 9 yards to the PSU34 (#0 C.Clark-Glover), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2789% → 91%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
89.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep middle to #6 K.Howard caught at MAR46, for 23 yards to the MAR43 (#3 R.Hinton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht rush left for 0 yards to the MAR43 (#0 C.Clark-Glover), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
89.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to MAR24Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+16
89.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #6 K.Howard caught at MAR38, for 16 yards to the MAR27 (#0 C.Clark-Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
89.3%
No Huddle #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAR25 (#55 C.Funderbuck)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
91.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at MAR28, for 25 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:49, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 4:229% → 9%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
90.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MAR23 (#98 D.Vakalahi)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+6
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to #81 T.Payne caught at MAR22, for 6 yards to the MAR29 (#3 J.Patton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Wilkins rush left for 5 yards loss to the MAR24 (#10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 15
OWN 24
-2
90.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush right for 2 yards loss to the MAR22 (#10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+20
90.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson sacked for loss of 0 yards to the MAR22 (#13 T.Rojas) PENALTY PSU Holding (#17 J.Zayas) 10 yards from MAR22 to MAR32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Price rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MAR36 (#10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+20
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 13 yards gain (10) to the MAR49 (#31 M.Neal; #9 C.Brezina) PENALTY MAR Holding (#0 D.Tamarez) 10 yards from MAR46 to MAR36Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short middle to #81 T.Payne thrown to MAR38 broken up by #18 M.GranvilleSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to #6 J.Barbie caught at MAR32, for 2 yards to the MAR38 (#5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+9
91.0%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 52 yards to the PSU10 #2 Z.Robinson return 9 yards to the PSU19 (#10 C.Clark)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5992% → 92%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
91.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU24 (#24 J.Clayton)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+52
91.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep right to #4 B.Eskildsen thrown to PSU44, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (#9 B.Hall) 15 yards from PSU24 to PSU39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush left for 4 yards gain to the PSU43 (#7 K.McBride)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU45 (#2 C.McCartherens; #55 C.Funderbuck)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
91.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete deep middle to #6 K.Howard thrown to MAR27Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
91.8%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 55 yards to the MAR00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:419% → 8%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short right to #20 O.Sweeney thrown to MAR26Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
91.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to #5 X.Turner-Bradshaw caught at MAR18, for 14 yards to the MAR34 (#7 Z.Tracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
91.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short left to #20 O.Sweeney caught at MAR43, for 9 yards to the MAR43 (#5 D.Dixson)Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
90.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Norton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAR45 (#99 K.Williams), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PSU Face Mask (#99 K.Williams) 15 yards from MAR45 to PSU40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
91.2%
Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU38 (#94 D.Cook; #26 C.Smith)Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
91.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short left to #21 T.Lester thrown to PSU26 QB hurried by #1 I.EzeoguSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-3
91.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson sacked for loss of 3 yards to the PSU41 (#10 C.Bacon)Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
91.9%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 31 yards to the PSU10, out of bounds at PSU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1193% → 93%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
93.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU15 (#6 J.Marshall)Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+1
93.3%
Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU16 (#5 J.Gilmore)Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+3
93.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU19 (#49 M.Lockhart; #7 K.McBride)Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
93.3%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 42 yards to the MAR39 fair catch by #2 C.McCartherens at MAR39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:098% → 8%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
91.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Barbie rush right for 5 yards loss to the MAR34 (#17 J.Zayas)Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+5
92.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short left to #5 X.Turner-Bradshaw caught at MAR33, for 5 yards to the MAR39 (#8 K.Ebel)Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+3
92.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush left for 3 yards gain to the MAR42 (#10 C.Bacon; #26 C.Smith)Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
92.0%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 45 yards to the PSU13 fair catch by #2 Z.Robinson at PSU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 5:0994% → 97%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
93.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU10, for 2 yards to the PSU15 (#3 R.Hinton)Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-5
93.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht sacked for loss of 5 yards to the PSU10 (#7 K.McBride)Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+12
93.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU12, for 12 yards to the PSU22 (#27 C.Lewis)Similar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+10
93.5%
No Huddle #21 C.Hansen rush right for 10 yards gain to the PSU32 (#3 R.Hinton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
94.0%
No Huddle #21 C.Hansen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU36 (#17 D.Smith)Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+42
94.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #6 K.Howard caught at MAR47, for 42 yards to the MAR22 (#0 C.Clark-Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
94.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush left for 9 yards gain to the MAR13 (#0 C.Clark-Glover), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
94.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush right for 2 yards gain to the MAR11 (#5 J.Gilmore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
95.1%
#1 J.Peoples rush right for 3 yards gain to the MAR08 (#2 C.McCartherens)Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
95.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass incomplete short right to #18 B.Brahmer thrown to MAR00 broken up by #17 D.SmithSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
97.3%
Benjamin Brahmer 8 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12MISSED FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 1:143% → 4%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to #6 J.Barbie caught at MAR22, for 6 yards to the MAR31 (#21 V.Toure), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
96.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short middle to #81 T.Payne caught at MAR38, for 8 yards to the MAR39 QB hurried by #9 C.Brezina (#7 Z.Tracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
96.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short left to #81 T.Payne caught at MAR44, for 10 yards to the MAR49 (#5 D.Dixson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
96.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short left to #4 K.Wilkins caught at PSU46, for 6 yards to the PSU45 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
95.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short right to #5 X.Turner-Bradshaw thrown to PSU35Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
96.0%
PENALTY MAR False Start (#20 O.Sweeney) 5 yards from PSU45 to PSU50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 9
50
+11
96.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short middle to #81 T.Payne caught at PSU43, for 11 yards to the PSU39 (#10 C.Bacon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete deep left to #81 T.Payne thrown to PSU00 QB hurried by #18 M.GranvilleSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
96.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to #81 T.Payne caught at PSU37, for 5 yards to the PSU34, out of bounds at PSU34Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+52
95.8%
#41 J.Diaz Nicolas field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #91 C.Heimbach, LS: #43 C.Ortiz), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:544% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Barbie rush left for 0 yards to the MAR25 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short middle to #20 O.Sweeney caught at MAR30, for 5 yards to the MAR30 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
95.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush right for 2 yards loss to the MAR28 (#13 T.Rojas), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.6%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 46 yards to the PSU26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:5297% → 99%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
96.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU36, for 11 yards to the PSU37 (#17 D.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
96.8%
No Huddle #21 C.Hansen rush right for 6 yards gain to the PSU43 (#0 C.Clark-Glover), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+18
96.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #87 A.Rappleyea caught at PSU45, for 18 yards to the MAR39 (#0 C.Clark-Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #2 Z.Robinson caught at MAR25, for 39 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:14, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short right to #9 C.Hamilton thrown to MAR22 broken up by #17 J.Zayas PENALTY PSU Holding (#98 D.Vakalahi) 10 yards from MAR25 to MAR35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MAR44 (#13 T.Rojas; #2 A.Collins)Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Barbie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MAR47 (#31 M.Neal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to #6 J.Barbie caught at MAR43, for 2 yards to the MAR49 QB hurried by #17 J.Zayas (#7 Z.Tracy)Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush right for 7 yards gain to the PSU44 (#31 M.Neal), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the PSU45 fumbled by #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson at PSU44 recovered by MAR #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson at PSU45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-1
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PSU45 fumbled by #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson at PSU45 recovered by MAR #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson at PSU45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-1
99.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush left for 1 yard loss to the PSU46 (#8 K.Ebel; #92 S.Taupaki), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete short right to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at PSU43, for 2 yards loss to the PSU44 (#7 K.McBride)Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+3
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete short left to #25 Q.Martin caught at PSU38, for 3 yards to the PSU47 (#9 B.Hall)Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+12
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete short right to #6 K.Howard caught at PSU48, for 12 yards to the MAR41 (#8 E.Pleasant III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete deep left to #6 K.Howard caught at MAR16, for 26 yards to the MAR15 (#9 B.Hall), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MAR Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush right for 9 yards gain to the MAR06 (#3 R.Hinton; #8 E.Pleasant III)Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush left for 6 yards gain to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:16, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Wilkins rush right for 5 yards gain to the MAR30 (#9 C.Brezina; #12 X.Thomas)Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short middle to #81 T.Payne caught at MAR36, for 7 yards to the MAR37 QB hurried by #10 C.Bacon (#9 C.Brezina), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short right to #20 O.Sweeney thrown to MAR36 QB hurried by #13 T.RojasSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAR39 (#13 T.Rojas)Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete short right to #20 O.Sweeney thrown to PSU47 QB hurried by #1 I.EzeoguSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
99.8%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 48 yards to the PSU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 44 yds · 6:47100% → 100%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.7%
No Huddle #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU17 (#27 C.Lewis; #0 C.Clark-Glover)Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
99.7%
No Huddle #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU22 (#0 C.Clark-Glover)Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+6
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the PSU28 (#7 K.McBride), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush left for 8 yards gain to the PSU36 (#2 C.McCartherens)Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU36 (#55 C.Funderbuck; #44 K.Hardge II)Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
99.7%
#26 C.Wallace rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU39 (#17 D.Smith; #0 C.Clark-Glover), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Peoples rush middle for 6 yards gain to the PSU45 (#17 D.Smith; #6 J.Marshall)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Brookins thrown to PSU50 QB hurried by #44 K.Hardge IISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU50 (#52 M.Warren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.8%
No Huddle #7 A.Manske rush right for 6 yards gain to the MAR44 (#44 K.Hardge II; #7 K.McBride)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+1
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush left for 1 yard gain to the MAR43 (#17 D.Smith)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
99.8%
No Huddle #7 A.Manske pass incomplete short right to #89 F.Furmanek thrown to MAR40 broken up by #5 J.GilmoreSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
99.9%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 42 yards to the MAR01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Lester rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MAR03 (#19 Y.Kemajou; #26 C.Smith)Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Lester rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MAR07 (#9 C.Brezina)Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 Z.Turner pass intercepted by #28 B.Williams at MAR30, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete short right to #9 A.Jackson caught at MAR24, for 10 yards to the MAR20 (#4 P.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
No Huddle #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MAR17 (#32 P.Schuh; #49 M.Lockhart)Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-2
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 2 yards loss to the MAR19 (#24 J.Clayton; #32 P.Schuh)Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Manske pass complete short right to #8 K.Brookins caught at MAR13, for 8 yards to the MAR11 (#4 P.Davis; #19 Z.Jackson)Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+5
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MAR06 (#10 C.Clark; #32 P.Schuh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush right for 6 yards gain to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:59 #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #92 A.Dufault)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 Z.Turner pass complete short left to #22 A.Quinn, Jr. caught at MAR07, for 0 yards to the MAR14 (#90 L.Andrews)Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Quinn, Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MAR13 (#39 T.Blanding)Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+1
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 Z.Turner pass complete short middle to #3 C.Culliver caught at MAR12, for 1 yard to the MAR14 (#9 C.Brezina; #21 V.Toure)Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+23
100.0%
#91 C.Heimbach punt 42 yards to the PSU44 #2 Z.Robinson return 23 yards to the MAR33 (#43 C.Ortiz; #9 B.Hall) PENALTY PSU Holding (#7 Z.Tracy) 10 yards from PSU44 to PSU34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU35 (#33 A.Parker)Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU35 (#21 K.Painter)Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-4
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Barry pass complete short left to #25 Q.Martin caught at PSU31, for 4 yards loss to the PSU31 (#16 K.Anderson)Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
99.9%
#38 N.Tiyce punt 34 yards to the MAR35, out of bounds at MAR35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Quinn, Jr. rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MAR32 fumbled by #22 A.Quinn, Jr. at MAR32 recovered by PSU #89 J.Ford at MAR32, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MAR31 (#30 J.Simmons)Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Barry rush right for 4 yards gain to the MAR27 (#15 T.Lester)Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+5
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MAR22 (#32 P.Schuh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush right for 16 yards gain to the MAR06 (#4 P.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 C.Wallace rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MAR09, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 Q.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MAR08 (#30 J.Simmons; #32 P.Schuh)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
100.0%
Shotgun #10 C.Barry rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MAR09, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:18
Benjamin Brahmer 8 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)
+3.3
TD · Q3 11:14
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #2 Z.Robinson caught at MAR25, for 39 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:14, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)
+2.5
TD · Q1 4:49
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short left to #4 B.Eskildsen caught at MAR28, for 25 yards to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:49, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #38 N.Tiyce, LS: #35 B.Sokach-Minnick)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com