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BOIS

Boise State 27 at Oregon 34

ORE
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.8ORE 72.8%#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 29yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61C.Kellow), clock 02:48AWAY 17 - HOME 7 · Q2 2:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:48 · #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 02:48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+30.0Home team on offense−9.3Garbage-time factor−2.2Score differential−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:14: Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #26 S.Gaines caught at ORE33, for 38 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:14, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +5.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Jamari Johnson 27 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick) — ORE win probability +11.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 5:36: Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #3 J.McClellan caught at BSU06, for 8 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:36 #97 G.Hurych kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #71 R.Todd) — ORE win probability +7.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:20: Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at ORE00, for 7 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:20, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow) — BOIS win probability +15.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:45: #48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 08:45 — BOIS win probability +13.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 7:24ORE 4th & 2 at BOIS 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:54BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:20BOIS 4th & 6 at ORE 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06ORE 4th & 11 at BOIS 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:24BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:09ORE 4th & 1 at BOIS 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:09BOIS 4th & 1 at ORE 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−1.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:48BOIS 4th & 2 at ORE 11, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:23ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:30ORE 4th & 7 at BOIS 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−6.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:49BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:20BOIS 4th & 3 at ORE 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−9.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:49ORE 4th & 11 at BOIS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−10.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:45BOIS 4th & 4 at ORE 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.6
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−12.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:41BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:24ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:41BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:37ORE 4th & 2 at BOIS 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:37BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:17ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:14BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:19ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:36ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:20BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:166% → 8%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
(14:53) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #5 A.Wright thrown to BSU41Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.3%
(14:35) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #4 M.Madsen caught at BSU25, for 6 yards to the BSU31 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
94.2%
PENALTY BSU False Start (#75 D.Metoyer) 5 yards from BSU31 to BSU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
94.2%
(13:52) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BSU43, for 23 yards to the BSU49 (#15 C.Williams IV; #4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
94.0%
(13:13) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ORE44 (#10 M.Uiagalelei; #44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
93.8%
(12:37) #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE41 (#1 B.Alexander) PENALTY ORE Offside (#55 D.Utu) 5 yards from ORE44 to ORE39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
93.7%
(12:18) #4 M.Madsen rush right for 6 yards gain to the ORE33 (#6 J.Mixon), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+6
93.5%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush left for 6 yards gain to the ORE27 (#4 B.Finney; #10 M.Uiagalelei), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
93.5%
(11:32) No Huddle #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE24 (#55 M.Johnson; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+6
93.4%
(11:20) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush right for 6 yards gain to the ORE16 (#3 K.Perich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
93.2%
(11:29) Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #3 C.Bates caught at ORE22, for 2 yards to the ORE22 (#21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
92.6%
(10:50) Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE13 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
91.9%
Cam Bates 13 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:1392% → 92%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
92.2%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #1 D.Moore caught at ORE42, for 6 yards to the ORE42 (#6 J.Washington Jr.; #22 R.Tillmon)Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
92.2%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE46, for 5 yards to the ORE47 (#1 B.Phelps), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
92.0%
(07:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE49 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan)Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
92.0%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #6 D.Hill Jr thrown to BSU48Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+6
91.8%
(07:27) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #1 D.Moore caught at BSU47, for 6 yards to the BSU45 (#4 T.Anderson; #6 J.Washington Jr.)Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-2
91.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at BSU47, for 2 yards loss to the BSU47 (#6 J.Washington Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 8:438% → 12%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
92.2%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU04 (#1 B.Alexander; #44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 11
OPP 0
+2
88.3%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU04 (#1 B.Alexander; #44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+4
89.0%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU08 (#42 A.Breland; #10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 8
-5
89.2%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BSU03 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 3
0
88.0%
#37 O.Doyle punt 47 yards to the BSU50 fair catch by #7 E.Stewart at ORE50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 3:049% → 10%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.4%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU50 (#10 M.Uiagalelei; #3 K.Perich)Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 7
50
+3
91.4%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE47 (#3 K.Perich; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-2
91.4%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ORE49 (#1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
90.0%
#37 O.Doyle punt 46 yards to the ORE03 fair catch by #7 E.Stewart at ORE03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1490% → 89%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
90.2%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game (#17 L.Brantley) 5 yards from ORE03 to ORE08. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 5
OWN 8
+50
90.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete deep right to #3 J.McClellan caught at ORE42, for 50 yards to the BSU42 (#7 J.Mickey; #9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
90.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #7 E.Stewart caught at BSU37, for 5 yards to the BSU37 (#8 S.Smith)Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-6
90.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #6 D.Hill Jr caught at BSU45, for 6 yards loss to the BSU43 (#7 J.Mickey)Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
90.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short middle to #7 E.Stewart thrown to BSU27 broken up by #9 D.Ganter Jr.Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
88.9%
#39 B.Ettridge punt 41 yards to the BSU02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:4388% → 90%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
88.4%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU44 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.; #91 B.Bol)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
88.5%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU42 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+23
88.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #3 J.McClellan caught at BSU26, for 23 yards to the BSU19 (#6 J.Washington Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
88.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush right for 2 yards loss to the BSU21 (#1 B.Phelps; #95 M.Stege)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+5
88.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush right for 5 yards gain to the BSU16 (#51 R.Caywood)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+9
88.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #3 J.McClellan caught at BSU12, for 9 yards to the BSU07 (#43 J.Ripp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
88.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU01 (#7 J.Mickey; #9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17 #97 G.Hurych kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #71 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5312% → 12%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.3%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU26 (#0 D.Robinson; #6 J.Mixon)Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
88.3%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #19 R.Jones thrown to BSU31Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
88.6%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #19 R.Jones thrown to BSU35Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
88.5%
#37 O.Doyle punt 37 yards to the ORE37 muffed by #7 E.Stewart at ORE37 recovered by BSU #29 A.de Boachie at ORE38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD
1 play · 38 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
83.1%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #26 S.Gaines caught at ORE33, for 38 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:14, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
84.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #1 D.Moore caught at ORE27, for 7 yards to the ORE29 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
84.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ORE33 (#1 B.Phelps), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Moore thrown to BSU40Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
84.5%
Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush left for 11 yards gain to the ORE44 (#4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
85.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #1 D.Moore caught at ORE48, for 7 yards to the BSU49, out of bounds at BSU49Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
85.5%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #7 E.Stewart caught at BSU47, for 2 yards to the BSU47 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
85.4%
#5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Johnson thrown to BSU39 QB hurried by #43 J.RippSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
84.9%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #6 D.Hill Jr caught at BSU50, for 0 yards to the BSU47 (#1 B.Phelps), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 7:2117% → 27%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
83.2%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BSU46 (#44 T.Tuioti)Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
83.4%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #0 D.Riley caught at BSU47, for 5 yards to the ORE49 (#11 D.Williams; #12 P.Woodyard)Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
83.2%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BSU47 broken up by #12 P.Woodyard QB hurried by #1 B.AlexanderSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+5
83.8%
PENALTY ORE Offside (#52 A.Washington) 5 yards from ORE49 to ORE44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
83.7%
#4 M.Madsen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE42 (#44 T.Tuioti; #9 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
77.0%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #82 B.Ford caught at ORE36, for 8 yards to the ORE34 (#3 K.Perich)Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+15
77.3%
PENALTY ORE UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#12 P.Woodyard) 15 yards from ORE34 to ORE19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
77.3%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ORE13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-1
77.3%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ORE14 (#11 D.Williams; #10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+3
77.6%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE11 (#9 D.Jackson; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
72.8%
#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 02:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:2574% → 70%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.8%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush left for 5 yards gain to the ORE30 (#7 J.Mickey; #22 R.Tillmon)Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
74.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #6 D.Hill Jr caught at ORE33, for 12 yards to the ORE42 (#1 B.Phelps; #22 R.Tillmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
74.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #9 J.Johnson caught at ORE45, for 3 yards to the ORE45 (#22 R.Tillmon)Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
75.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #6 D.Hill Jr thrown to ORE45 QB hurried by #96 L.SanusiSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
74.2%
PENALTY ORE False Start (#3 J.McClellan) 5 yards from ORE45 to ORE40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+2
73.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush right for 2 yards gain to the ORE42 (#91 B.Bol)Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
70.3%
#39 B.Ettridge punt 51 yards to the BSU07 fair catch by #34 J.Lane at BSU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2827% → 28%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
72.6%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU07 (#52 A.Washington)Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
72.5%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #19 R.Jones thrown to BSU11 broken up by #6 J.Mixon QB hurried by #44 T.TuiotiSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
73.1%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Riley thrown to BSU02Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
72.5%
#37 O.Doyle punt 37 yards to the BSU44 fair catch by #7 E.Stewart at BSU44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 0:4373% → 82%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.9%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #0 J.Davison caught at ORE50, for 0 yards to the BSU44 (#44 S.Brackett-Lambey)Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
72.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #3 J.McClellan caught at BSU34, for 9 yards to the BSU35 (#6 J.Washington Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+8
72.2%
Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU27 (#4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
82.3%
Jamari Johnson 27 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.4%
Kneel down by #4 M.Madsen at BSU24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 15:0079% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
79.3%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush left for 10 yards gain to the ORE35 (#17 L.Brantley; #4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.5%
PENALTY ORE False Start (#99 T.Ferguson) 5 yards from ORE35 to ORE30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
79.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE32 (#17 L.Brantley)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+3
79.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE33, for 3 yards to the ORE35 (#4 T.Anderson)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+39
78.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short middle to #7 E.Stewart caught at BSU46, for 39 yards to the BSU26 (#4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
80.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass intercepted by #6 J.Washington Jr. at BSU00 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (#6 J.Washington Jr.) 15 yards from BSU26 to BSU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
77.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #3 J.McClellan thrown to BSU10 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (#6 J.Washington Jr.) 15 yards from BSU26 to BSU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5384% → 82%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
84.1%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush right for 3 yards gain to the BSU08 (#17 L.Brantley)Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
84.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short left to #3 J.McClellan thrown to BSU05 broken up by #6 J.Washington Jr.Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
83.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Johnson thrown to BSU00 QB hurried by #5 J.Virgin-MorganSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
81.7%
#97 G.Hurych field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #71 R.Todd), clock 11:30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4121% → 24%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.9%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU30 (#15 C.Williams IV; #21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
78.3%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BSU36 (#3 K.Perich; #1 B.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.1%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 5 yards gain to the BSU41 (#15 C.Williams IV; #7 I.Obidegwu)Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
76.9%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU44 (#3 K.Perich; #47 E.Rushing)Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
77.1%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #5 A.Wright thrown to BSU48 QB hurried by #11 D.WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
76.4%
#37 O.Doyle punt 43 yards to the ORE13 fair catch by #7 E.Stewart at ORE13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 3:1379% → 90%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+40
78.9%
Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 40 yards gain to the BSU47 (#4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
81.7%
#7 E.Stewart rush right for 2 yards loss to the BSU49 (#4 T.Anderson; #7 J.Mickey)Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+22
80.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete deep right to #9 J.Johnson caught at BSU28, for 22 yards to the BSU27 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
82.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU25 (#1 B.Phelps; #4 T.Anderson)Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+17
82.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at BSU28, for 17 yards to the BSU08 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #3 J.McClellan caught at BSU06, for 8 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:36 #97 G.Hurych kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #71 R.Todd)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1614% → 32%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
86.1%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #19 R.Jones caught at BSU42, for 22 yards to the BSU47 (#4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
84.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #26 S.Gaines caught at BSU49, for 6 yards to the ORE47 (#4 B.Finney)Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+5
83.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ORE42 (#21 A.Flowers; #4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
84.0%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at ORE29, for 13 yards to the ORE29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
82.6%
#4 M.Madsen pass intercepted by #2 N.Offord at ORE05 PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#2 N.Offord) 15 yards from ORE29 to ORE14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
82.6%
Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush right for 5 yards gain to the ORE09 (#2 N.Offord; #9 D.Jackson)Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
82.6%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush right for 2 yards gain to the ORE07 (#9 D.Jackson; #21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
83.8%
#4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #19 R.Jones thrown to ORE00 QB hurried by #11 D.WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
68.0%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at ORE00, for 7 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:20, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:3173% → 77%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
73.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #3 J.McClellan caught at ORE29, for 51 yards to the BSU24 (#8 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
77.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep middle to #3 J.McClellan thrown to BSU01Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
77.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at BSU28, for 1 yard loss to the BSU25 (#10 M.Soliai)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
75.1%
Shotgun #7 E.Stewart pass incomplete deep left to #3 J.McClellan thrown to BSU00 broken up by #8 S.SmithSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+44
77.3%
#97 G.Hurych field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #71 R.Todd), clock 14:49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:0422% → 40%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.0%
Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU27 (#6 J.Mixon; #10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
77.8%
PENALTY ORE Offside (#10 M.Uiagalelei) 5 yards from BSU27 to BSU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
75.7%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep left to #19 R.Jones thrown to ORE29 QB hurried by #1 B.Alexander PENALTY ORE Pass Interference (#21 A.Flowers) 15 yards from BSU32 to BSU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
74.7%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ORE49 (#3 K.Perich; #21 A.Flowers)Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
74.1%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at ORE48, for 5 yards to the ORE44 (#3 K.Perich), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+9
73.9%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ORE35 (#21 A.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
72.8%
Shotgun #0 D.Riley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ORE34 (#3 K.Perich; #1 B.Alexander)Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+8
72.9%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #88 M.Wagner caught at ORE32, for 8 yards to the ORE26 (#21 A.Flowers; #4 B.Finney)Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
73.8%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE24 (#4 B.Finney; #55 M.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
72.4%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ORE20 (#3 K.Perich; #9 D.Jackson)Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
72.4%
#0 D.Riley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE18 (#7 I.Obidegwu; #3 K.Perich)Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
73.9%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Bates thrown to ORE00 QB hurried by #44 T.TuiotiSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
59.9%
#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 08:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 8:4590% → 93%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
90.0%
(08:45) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE33, for 9 yards to the ORE38 (#4 T.Anderson)Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+62
91.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete deep middle to #1 D.Moore caught at BSU42, for 62 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:51, 1ST DOWN #97 G.Hurych kick attempt good (H: #39 B.Ettridge, LS: #71 R.Todd)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 17
OWN 29
+9
91.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE33, for 9 yards to the ORE38 (#4 T.Anderson)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 17
OPP 0
+9
93.1%
(08:45) Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #7 E.Stewart caught at ORE33, for 9 yards to the ORE38 (#4 T.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 3:0414% → 10%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.3%
Shotgun #26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU26 (#5 D.Benjamin)Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
86.3%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BSU18 (#10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
87.6%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short middle to #88 M.Wagner caught at BSU25, for 7 yards to the BSU25 (#21 A.Flowers; #10 M.Uiagalelei)Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
#37 O.Doyle punt 44 yards to the ORE31 fair catch by #7 E.Stewart at ORE31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:1792% → 95%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
92.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ORE34 (#5 J.Virgin-Morgan; #96 L.Sanusi)Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
92.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush right for 8 yards gain to the ORE42 (#22 R.Tillmon; #4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
92.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ORE44 (#1 B.Phelps)Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
92.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short right to #1 D.Moore caught at ORE48, for 5 yards to the ORE49 (#7 J.Mickey)Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
92.4%
PENALTY ORE Illegal Snap (#72 I.Laloulu) 5 yards from ORE49 to ORE44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-7
92.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore sacked for loss of 7 yards to the ORE37 (#91 B.Bol)Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+2
94.5%
#39 B.Ettridge punt 52 yards to the BSU11 #34 J.Lane return 2 yards to the BSU13 (#24 J.Washington)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:519% → 7%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.7%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short middle to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BSU19 QB hurried by #44 T.TuiotiSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+18
90.8%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #19 R.Jones caught at BSU31, for 18 yards to the BSU31 (#4 B.Finney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.4%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Riley thrown to BSU31 QB hurried by #44 T.TuiotiSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short left to #19 R.Jones thrown to ORE50 broken up by #7 I.ObidegwuSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete short right to #88 M.Wagner thrown to BSU35 QB hurried by #31 N.WyattSimilar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
93.1%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass incomplete deep right to #13 D.Morris thrown to ORE45 broken up by #2 N.Offord, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1097% → 96%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
96.5%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU26 (#1 B.Phelps; #17 L.Brantley)Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
96.5%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU23 (#9 D.Ganter Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
96.4%
Shotgun #0 J.Davison rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU23 (#95 M.Stege)Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
95.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Moore thrown to BSU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:20
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #88 M.Wagner caught at ORE00, for 7 yards to the ORE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:20, 1ST DOWN #48 C.Moore kick attempt good (H: #15 Z.Martinez, LS: #61 C.Kellow)
-15.8
FG · Q4 8:45
#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #37 O.Doyle, LS: #61 C.Kellow), clock 08:45
-13.9
TD · Q2 0:19
Jamari Johnson 27 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com