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TOL

Toledo 20 at Michigan State 30

MSU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2026 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:10: #37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 04:10 — MSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Liam Boyd 35 Yd Field Goal — MSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:49: No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter sacked for loss of 11 yards to the TOL29 (#96 E.Coenen) PENALTY TOL Intentional Grounding (#6 J.Richter) — TOL win probability +11.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:37: Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL00, for 5 yards to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:37, 1ST DOWN #3 R.Bullard Jr. pass attempt Successful — TOL win probability +2.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 1:55: #37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 01:55 — MSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:13TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:13MSU 4th & 2 at TOL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:40TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:06MSU 4th & 6 at TOL 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:37MSU 4th & 9 at TOL 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:10MSU 4th & 18 at TOL 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:33TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MSU 4th & 17 at TOL 17, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−6.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:12MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:06TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 17, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:36MSU 4th & 1 at TOL 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−5.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−18.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:37MSU 4th & 1 at TOL 5, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−3.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−22.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:50TOL 4th & 8 at MSU 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−18.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:55MSU 4th & 5 at TOL 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−7.8
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−19.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:15TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, up 2
    Close callWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:59MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4725% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.7%
Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush left for 5 yards gain to the TOL30 (#96 E.Coenen; #2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
74.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short left to #22 C.Miller thrown to TOL30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
74.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short middle to #12 B.Hammer thrown to TOL35 broken up by #96 E.CoenenSimilar
Q1 14:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
74.5%
#47 M.Meincke punt 46 yards to the MSU24 #13 C.McCray return 13 yards to the MSU37 (#12 M.Conteh)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 7:1475% → 76%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
74.5%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MSU47 (#12 M.Conteh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
74.6%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush left for 4 yards gain to the TOL49 (#1 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
74.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at TOL47, for 2 yards to the TOL47, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
74.6%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TOL45 (#0 A.Zock; #90 Z.Johnson)Similar
Q1 14:13
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+15
74.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at TOL38, for 15 yards to the TOL30 (#12 M.Conteh; #7 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
74.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL27 (#99 C.Camese)Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
74.6%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL22 (#12 M.Conteh)Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
74.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TOL16 (#12 M.Conteh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
74.6%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TOL12 (#52 L.Lambert-Pipkin)Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
74.6%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush left for 5 yards gain to the TOL07 (#7 A.Smith; #1 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
74.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL07 (#92 T.Huss)Similar
Q1 14:13
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+4
74.5%
#11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TOL05 (#52 L.Lambert-Pipkin) PENALTY TOL Offside (#92 T.Huss) 4 yards from TOL07 to TOL03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
74.6%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TOL02 (#90 Z.Johnson; #7 A.Smith)Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.0%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:59 #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 1:1925% → 24%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.2%
#22 C.Miller rush middle for 12 yards gain to the TOL37 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
74.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL40 (#13 I.Smith)Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
74.7%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter rush right for 5 yards loss to the TOL35 (#3 T.Bell) PENALTY TOL Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
75.4%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short middle to #12 B.Hammer thrown to TOL41 broken up by #1 K.Soares, Jr. QB hurried by #96 E.CoenenSimilar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+5
75.5%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOL35 to TOL30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
75.7%
#47 M.Meincke punt 40 yards to the MSU30 fair catch by #13 C.McCray at MSU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:3476% → 77%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
76.0%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 17 yards gain to the MSU47 (#23 I.Petite), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
76.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL48 (#10 J.Fox; #17 K.Hutchinson)Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
76.6%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL45 (#90 Z.Johnson; #10 J.Fox)Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+17
76.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL28, for 17 yards to the TOL28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
76.8%
Shotgun #2 C.Fancher rush left for 3 yards gain to the TOL25 (#0 A.Zock)Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
76.8%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL25 (#1 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+7
76.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #0 C.Edwards caught at TOL24, for 7 yards to the TOL18 (#44 I.Zay), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
76.7%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 4 yards loss to the TOL22 (#90 Z.Johnson)Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+8
76.6%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #31 J.Savoury caught at TOL18, for 8 yards to the TOL14 (#44 I.Zay)Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
76.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to TOL00Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
76.8%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 00:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5INT
6 plays · -3 yds · 7:1622% → 23%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.7%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOL25 to TOL20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-3
77.8%
Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TOL17 (#7 M.Richard)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
78.0%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short middle to #8 C.Walendzak caught at TOL20, for 5 yards to the TOL22 (#21 N.Martinez)Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
77.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass intercepted by #1 K.Soares, Jr. at TOL40 #1 K.Soares, Jr. return 0 yards to the TOL40 (#5 T.Crosby Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 6:3276% → 78%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
76.3%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 15 yards gain to the TOL25 (#12 M.Conteh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+13
76.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #31 J.Savoury caught at TOL24, for 13 yards to the TOL22 (#17 K.Hutchinson; #19 I.Prince)Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-2
76.5%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush left for 2 yards loss to the TOL24 (#0 A.Zock)Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
76.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #14 B.Williams thrown to TOL15Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
75.7%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 11:37Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
77.8%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL20, End Of Play PENALTY MSU Holding (#58 C.Moore) 10 yards from TOL25 to TOL35. NO PLAYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4725% → 24%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.0%
Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush left for 0 yards to the TOL25 (#4 C.Brantley; #5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.2%
Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TOL26 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
75.5%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short right to #19 D.Barnett Jr. thrown to TOL32 broken up by #4 C.Brantley PENALTY MSU Holding (#4 C.Brantley) 10 yards from TOL26 to TOL36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.5%
Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush right for 1 yard gain to the TOL37 (#45 B.Pretzlaff; #1 K.Soares, Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
74.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TOL41 (#45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
74.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short middle to #3 A.Dabbs caught at TOL44, for 6 yards to the TOL47 (#52 M.Beeler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
73.7%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TOL40 (#3 T.Bell)Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+60
76.0%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete deep left to #3 A.Dabbs caught at MSU24, for 60 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:50, 1ST DOWN #93 R.Griffith kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Ruggles, LS: #49 M.Allen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:4078% → 81%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
78.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL40, for 10 yards to the TOL35 (#44 I.Zay), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
78.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL29, for 6 yards to the TOL29 (#23 I.Petite)Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
78.3%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TOL22 (#7 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-8
78.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TOL30 (#52 L.Lambert-Pipkin)Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 18
OPP 30
0
77.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #0 C.Edwards caught at TOL33, for 0 yards to the TOL30 (#23 I.Petite)Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 18
OPP 30
0
77.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #13 C.McCray thrown to TOL20 QB hurried by #0 A.ZockSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 18
OPP 30
+48
81.3%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 04:10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3718% → 16%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Ison thrown to TOL30 QB hurried by #5 J.HallSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.7%
Shotgun #4 A.Ison rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TOL23 (#9 K.Thompson; #5 J.Hall)Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
83.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL23 (#96 E.Coenen)Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+9
83.8%
#47 M.Meincke punt 49 yards to the MSU28 #13 C.McCray return 9 yards to the MSU37 (#39 D.Hohler; #49 M.Allen)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 2:3385% → 87%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
84.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU43, for 9 yards to the MSU46 (#6 L.Long), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
84.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at MSU48, for 4 yards to the MSU50 (#6 L.Long), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+15
85.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #6 F.Moore caught at TOL36, for 15 yards to the TOL35 (#1 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
85.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #6 F.Moore caught at TOL30, for 6 yards to the TOL29 (#1 C.Jones; #6 L.Long)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+8
84.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TOL21 (#7 A.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
84.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at TOL15, for 13 yards to the TOL08 (#10 J.Fox), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
84.9%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TOL06 (#44 I.Zay; #10 J.Fox), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
83.2%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TOL03 (#95 W.Peart II; #2 E.Odinjor)Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+10
81.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush left for 1 yard gain to the TOL02 (#10 J.Fox) PENALTY MSU Holding (#55 R.Johnson) 10 yards from TOL03 to TOL13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
-4
84.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 4 yards to the TOL17 (#99 C.Camese)Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
86.6%
Liam Boyd 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.6%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU27 (#44 I.Zay)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
84.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU32, for 5 yards to the MSU32 fumbled by #13 C.McCray at MSU32 forced by #10 J.Fox recovered by MSU #6 F.Moore at MSU32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
84.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at MSU36, for 4 yards to the MSU36 (#10 J.Fox; #4 D.Watkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU38 (#17 K.Hutchinson)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+11
85.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at MSU42, for 11 yards to the MSU49 (#4 D.Watkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
85.4%
Shotgun #13 C.McCray rush right for 4 yards gain to the TOL47 (#23 I.Petite; #44 I.Zay)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+13
85.5%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush left for 13 yards gain to the TOL34 (#7 A.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-12
85.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 12 yards to the TOL46 (#44 I.Zay)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OPP 46
+10
85.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #8 K.Smith caught at TOL36, for 10 yards to the TOL36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
84.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #13 C.McCray thrown to TOL25 broken up by #7 A.SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0827% → 45%
Q3 8:57
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+21
72.8%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short right to #19 D.Barnett Jr. caught at TOL47, for 21 yards to the TOL50 (#2 D.Vaught), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
50
+9
68.7%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short left to #12 B.Hammer caught at MSU45, for 9 yards to the MSU41 (#7 M.Richard), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+31
68.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short right to #12 B.Hammer caught at MSU29, for 31 yards to the MSU10 (#7 M.Richard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
67.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU06 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.7%
Adjatay Dabbs 6 Yd pass from John Alan Richter (Reice Griffith Kick)Similar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
55.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter sacked for loss of 11 yards to the TOL29 (#96 E.Coenen) PENALTY TOL Intentional Grounding (#6 J.Richter)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3761% → 59%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to MSU32Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.4%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #31 J.Savoury caught at MSU31, for 6 yards to the MSU31 (#44 I.Zay), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
60.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush left for 13 yards gain to the MSU44 (#23 I.Petite), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
63.9%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU46 (#90 Z.Johnson)Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
64.1%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU48 (#12 M.Conteh; #10 J.Fox)Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
63.1%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to TOL22 broken up by #25 T.RussellSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
59.0%
#9 R.Dakin punt 44 yards to the TOL08 fair catch by #12 B.Hammer at TOL08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0645% → 44%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
54.8%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short left to #12 B.Hammer caught at TOL16, for 9 yards to the TOL17 (#7 M.Richard)Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 1
OWN 17
0
53.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL17 (#52 M.Beeler; #2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
55.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 C.Miller rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL17 (#2 D.Vaught)Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+8
56.2%
#47 M.Meincke punt 49 yards to the MSU34 #13 C.McCray return 8 yards to the MSU42 (#25 T.Russell; #1 C.Jones)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3063% → 62%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.5%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush left for 0 yards to the MSU42 (#96 N.Chandler; #0 A.Zock)Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
63.9%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TOL37 (#17 K.Hutchinson)Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
63.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at TOL31, for 6 yards to the TOL31 (#4 D.Watkins), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
63.9%
Shotgun #21 M.Parrish rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TOL29 (#0 A.Zock)Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+20
59.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #13 C.McCray caught at TOL39, for 20 yards to the TOL38, out of bounds at TOL38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
61.6%
#0 C.Edwards rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL29 (#19 I.Prince; #12 M.Conteh), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 1:1349% → 49%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
51.1%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short right to #8 C.Walendzak caught at TOL29, for 0 yards to the TOL29 (#44 C.Wheatland)Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+71
50.7%
Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush middle for 71 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:47, 1ST DOWN #6 J.Richter pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1059% → 55%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
58.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at MSU49, for 26 yards to the TOL44 (#44 I.Zay; #23 I.Petite), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
63.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #31 J.Savoury thrown to TOL45 QB hurried by #92 T.HussSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
62.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL29, for 15 yards to the TOL29 (#7 A.Smith), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TOL Roughing The Passer (#52 L.Lambert-Pipkin) 15 yards from TOL29 to TOL14, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
65.7%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TOL13 (#99 C.Camese; #19 I.Prince)Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
64.6%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TOL09 (#17 K.Hutchinson)Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
58.0%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #13 C.McCray caught at TOL05, for 4 yards to the TOL05 (#4 D.Watkins; #23 I.Petite)Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
55.2%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL00, for 5 yards to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:37, 1ST DOWN #3 R.Bullard Jr. pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:4254% → 58%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
46.5%
Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TOL24 (#55 B.Roberts)Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+29
47.2%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete deep middle to #3 A.Dabbs caught at TOL45, for 29 yards to the MSU47 (#7 M.Richard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
40.9%
Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU39 (#22 T.Chappell; #45 B.Pretzlaff)Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+13
39.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short left to #19 D.Barnett Jr. thrown to MSU26 broken up by #22 T.Chappell, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (#22 T.Chappell) 13 yards from MSU39 to MSU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
38.6%
Shotgun #8 C.Walendzak rush right for 5 yards loss to the MSU31 (#52 M.Beeler; #5 J.Hall)Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+7
40.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short left to #19 D.Barnett Jr. caught at MSU27, for 7 yards to the MSU24 (#45 B.Pretzlaff; #22 T.Chappell)Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
40.5%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short right to #1 R.Bond thrown to MSU09 QB hurried by #1 K.Soares, Jr.Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
42.1%
#93 R.Griffith field goal attempt from 41 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 A.Ruggles, LS: #49 M.Allen), clock 07:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 5:5551% → 38%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
51.3%
Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush right for 10 yards gain to the MSU34 (#12 M.Conteh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
52.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU37 (#90 Z.Johnson; #10 J.Fox)Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
54.9%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to MSU43 broken up by #44 I.ZaySimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
51.3%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
56.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Patterson rush right for 4 yards gain to the TOL48 (#10 J.Fox; #90 Z.Johnson)Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
57.4%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL48 (#44 I.Zay; #2 E.Odinjor)Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+10
56.5%
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #82 B.Parachek caught at TOL38, for 10 yards to the TOL38 (#17 K.Hutchinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
57.5%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TOL30 (#12 M.Conteh)Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
61.3%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 0 yards to the TOL30 (#25 T.Russell; #44 I.Zay)Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+5
54.3%
PENALTY TOL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MSU43 to MSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-3
50.7%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TOL33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
37.5%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 51 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 01:55Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4076% → 79%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.6%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short left to #19 D.Barnett Jr. caught at TOL35, for 10 yards to the TOL35, out of bounds at TOL35 PENALTY TOL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#43 S.Lee) 5 yards from TOL25 to TOL20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
24.3%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short right to #3 A.Dabbs thrown to TOL28 broken up by #3 T.BellSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
24.8%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete deep right to #3 A.Dabbs thrown to TOL45Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
26.5%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass complete short right to #8 C.Walendzak caught at TOL26, for 13 yards to the TOL33 (#3 T.Bell), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
20.9%
Shotgun #6 J.Richter pass incomplete short left to #3 A.Dabbs thrown to TOL47 broken up by #22 T.Chappell, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4743% → 32%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
43.1%
Shotgun #0 C.Edwards rush left for 2 yards gain to the TOL31 (#10 J.Fox)Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-1
31.9%
Kneel down by Michigan St. at TOL32 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+75.1
TD · Q3 6:49
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Richter sacked for loss of 11 yards to the TOL29 (#96 E.Coenen) PENALTY TOL Intentional Grounding (#6 J.Richter)
-11.6
FG · Q2 4:10
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #9 R.Dakin, LS: #50 N.Duzansky), clock 04:10
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com