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WMU

Western Michigan 12 at Michigan 13

MICH
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:17 · (03:21) #33 C.Brown punt 48 yards to the WMU43 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+31.9Home team on offense+2.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:17: (05:20) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 05:17 — WMU win probability +0.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Dieter Kelly 45 Yd Field Goal — WMU win probability +2.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:25: (10:28) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 10:25 — WMU win probability +13.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:35: (00:38) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 00:35 — WMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: JJ Buchanan 47 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood — MICH win probability +90.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:40MICH 4th & 1 at WMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:17WMU 4th & 6 at MICH 33, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:20WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54WMU 4th & 2 at MICH 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:33MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:27WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:13MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:08WMU 4th & 22 at MICH 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:17MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:56WMU 4th & 3 at MICH 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:33WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:05MICH 4th & 4 at WMU 44, up 1
    Close callPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:25WMU 4th & 10 at MICH 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−4.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−14.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:06MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 25, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:10WMU 4th & 7 at MICH 44, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−4.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−2.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:35WMU 4th & 4 at MICH 14, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−3.2
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−30.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:40MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0196% → 95%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at UOM32, for 8 yards to the UOM33 (#13 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+20
95.4%
(14:26) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at UOM37, for 20 yards to the WMU47 (#9 W.Gerig), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
95.4%
(13:54) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #23 J.Marshall caught at WMU47, for 16 yards to the WMU31 (#47 D.Moon; #19 B.Steely), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
95.3%
(13:37) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU28 (#1 J.Franklin) PENALTY UOM Illegal Formation 5 yards from WMU31 to WMU36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+13
95.2%
(13:18) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #42 J.Hoffman caught at WMU31, for 13 yards to the WMU23 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
95.2%
(12:56) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #3 A.Marsh caught at WMU22, for 4 yards to the WMU19 (#18 M.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
95.1%
(12:27) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 4 yards gain to the WMU15 (#8 J.Sims)Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+10
95.0%
(11:50) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 10 yards gain to the WMU05 (#12 D.Moore), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.9%
(11:25) #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU04 (#12 D.Moore; #18 M.Davis)Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.8%
(10:48) #23 J.Marshall rush left for 3 yards gain to the WMU01 (#10 J.Betts)Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.7%
(10:10) #19 B.Underwood rush right for 0 yards to the WMU01 (#26 K.Crump). The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was down by contact". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (10:10) #19 B.Underwood rush right for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:01)Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
(09:40) #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40 #99 T.Butkowski kick attempt good (H: #33 C.Brown, LS: #49 N.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:155% → 6%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.8%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU27, for 17 yards to the WMU42 (#7 C.Bracy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
94.7%
(09:00) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU44 (#18 T.Bowles; #10 Z.Berry)Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
94.6%
(08:20) Shotgun #1 E.Littlejohn rush right for 8 yards gain to the UOM48 (#18 T.Bowles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
94.4%
(07:39) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at UOM41, for 11 yards to the UOM37 (#0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
94.3%
(07:04) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 7 yards loss to the UOM44 fumbled by #12 B.Lowry at UOM44 recovered by WMU #24 O.Mataele at UOM44, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (07:04) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #24 O.Mataele thrown to UOM43)Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+4
94.3%
(06:35) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UOM40 (#90 J.Daley; #8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+7
94.2%
(05:53) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #2 A.Chenault caught at UOM40, for 7 yards to the UOM33 (#3 S.Snowden)Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+52
93.6%
(05:20) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 05:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4194% → 93%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.6%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 2 yards gain to the UOM27 (#10 J.Betts) PENALTY WMU Face Mask (#10 J.Betts) 15 yards from UOM27 to UOM42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
93.7%
(04:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 5 yards gain to the UOM47 (#15 K.Burley)Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
93.7%
(04:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to WMU28 broken up by #6 J.PopeSimilar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
93.6%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #6 J.Buchanan caught at WMU47, for 16 yards to the WMU37 (#6 J.Pope) PENALTY UOM Illegal Formation 5 yards from UOM47 to UOM42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
93.3%
(03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to WMU30 broken up by #13 J.Thomas. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #6 J.Pope at WMU31 #6 J.Pope return 5 yards to the WMU36 (#10 J.Ffrench Jr.))Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
93.1%
(03:38) #33 C.Brown punt 40 yards to the WMU18 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:067% → 7%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
93.3%
(03:31) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 3 yards gain to the WMU21 (#7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
93.1%
(02:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 3 yards gain to the WMU24 (#8 D.Nichols; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-3
92.9%
(02:05) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 3 yards to the WMU21 (#8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+51
92.9%
(01:28) #25 R.Millmore punt 51 yards to the UOM28 muffed by #3 A.Marsh at UOM28 recovered by WMU #19 B.Steely at UOM27, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:218% → 8%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.0%
(01:20) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #88 N.Levicki thrown to UOM25 QB hurried by #95 T.PierceSimilar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
92.0%
(01:15) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 2 yards gain to the UOM25 (#91 J.Lea'ea)Similar
Q1 0:26
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+6
92.0%
(00:26) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UOM19 (#44 N.Staehling; #18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 19
0
91.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #7 B.Brooks thrown to UOM05 QB hurried by #95 T.Pierce, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1592% → 91%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.2%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush right for 1 yard gain to the UOM21 (#10 J.Betts)Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
91.9%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #23 J.Marshall caught at UOM17, for 1 yard to the UOM22 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
91.6%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to UOM30 broken up by #18 M.DavisSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
91.4%
(13:38) #33 C.Brown punt 47 yards to the WMU31 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:598% → 10%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
91.7%
(13:33) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 4 yards gain to the WMU35 (#18 T.Bowles), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
91.4%
(13:03) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU36 (#17 E.Etta)Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
91.3%
(12:18) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU43, for 7 yards to the WMU43 (#18 T.Bowles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
90.7%
(11:36) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at UOM47, for 9 yards to the UOM48 (#7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-4
90.2%
(10:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WMU45 (#8 D.Nichols, #94 N.Marshall)Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+1
90.3%
(10:09) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #4 C.Cabana caught at WMU38, for 1 yard to the WMU46 (#3 S.Snowden)Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+10
90.5%
(09:36) #25 R.Millmore punt 48 yards to the UOM06 #3 A.Marsh return 10 yards to the UOM16 (#46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0891% → 90%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
90.5%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM18 (#1 J.Franklin)Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
90.2%
(08:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush left for 5 yards gain to the UOM23 (#42 G.Welch)Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 3
OWN 23
-1
89.9%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short left to #5 S.Hiter caught at UOM22, for 1 yard loss to the UOM22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 8:13
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
89.8%
(08:22) #33 C.Brown punt 50 yards to the WMU28 muffed by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU28 recovered by WMU #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5810% → 11%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
90.0%
(08:13) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 6 yards gain to the WMU34 (#54 D.Palepale)Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+15
89.4%
(07:33) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass intercepted by #0 J.Hill at UOM37 #0 J.Hill return 0 yards to the UOM37, End Of Play PENALTY UOM Pass Interference (#0 J.Hill) 15 yards from WMU34 to WMU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
88.9%
(07:13) Shotgun #80 H.Hughes rush left for 6 yards gain to the UOM45 (#3 S.Snowden), out of bounds PENALTY UOM UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#3 S.Snowden) 15 yards from UOM45 to UOM30, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.2%
(06:47) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #4 C.Cabana caught at UOM35, for 0 yards to the UOM30 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
88.0%
(06:06) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #8 E.Nelson thrown to UOM25 broken up by #13 A.Moa QB hurried by #90 J.DaleySimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+5
88.4%
(06:01) PENALTY WMU False Start (#76 C.Schuster) 5 yards from UOM30 to UOM35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 15
OPP 35
-2
89.0%
(06:03) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UOM37 (#8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 17
OPP 37
+5
89.3%
PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game (#25 R.Millmore) 5 yards from UOM37 to UOM42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 22
OPP 42
0
89.3%
(05:15) #25 R.Millmore punt 34 yards to the UOM08 fair catch by #3 A.Marsh at UOM08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4489% → 88%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
89.2%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 1 yard gain to the UOM09 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.; #12 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+2
88.9%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM11 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-1
88.3%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UOM09 (#12 D.Moore, #2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
87.8%
(03:21) #33 C.Brown punt 48 yards to the WMU43 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1513% → 13%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
87.3%
(03:16) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU46 (#0 J.Hill)Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
86.9%
(02:34) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 4 yards gain to the WMU50 (#10 Z.Berry), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 3
50
+3
87.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #1 E.Littlejohn rush left for 3 yards gain to the UOM47 (#1 R.Moore; #10 Z.Berry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
86.9%
(01:39) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #8 E.Nelson caught at UOM50, for 3 yards loss to the UOM50 QB hurried by #8 D.Nichols (#0 J.Hill)Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 13
50
0
87.9%
(01:13) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #7 B.Brooks thrown to UOM47 QB hurried by #0 J.HillSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 13
50
+10
88.1%
(01:13) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at UOM41, for 10 yards to the UOM40 (#3 S.Snowden)Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
87.2%
(01:01) #25 R.Millmore punt 38 yards to the UOM02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:4088% → 88%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
87.9%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 9 yards gain to the UOM11 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+2
87.8%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush right for 2 yards gain to the UOM13 (#1 J.Franklin; #22 A.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
87.7%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short middle to #6 J.Buchanan caught at UOM22, for 9 yards to the UOM22 (#22 A.Louis)Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
87.8%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #12 S.Moa thrown to WMU40Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+5
87.3%
PENALTY WMU Offside (#31 D.Echoles Jr.) 5 yards from UOM22 to UOM27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
87.8%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #12 D.Moore at UOM30 #12 D.Moore return 4 yards to the UOM26, out of bounds at UOM26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0314% → 16%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
86.0%
(00:07) Kneel down by #12 B.Lowry at UOM27 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+45
83.6%
Dieter Kelly 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2214% → 14%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU27 (#18 T.Bowles; #8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
85.6%
(14:22) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 4 yards gain to the WMU31 (#18 T.Bowles; #90 J.Daley)Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
85.4%
(13:36) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #2 A.Chenault thrown to WMU34 broken up by #3 S.SnowdenSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
86.2%
(13:33) #25 R.Millmore punt 32 yards to the UOM37 PENALTY UOM Holding (#30 M.Alford) 10 yards from UOM37 to UOM27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3685% → 84%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
85.4%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 5 yards gain to the UOM32 (#8 J.Sims; #10 J.Betts)Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
85.9%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush middle for 0 yards to the UOM32 (#12 D.Moore) PENALTY UOM Holding (#53 J.Guarnera) 10 yards from UOM32 to UOM22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+14
84.6%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #6 J.Buchanan caught at UOM36, for 14 yards to the UOM36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
85.4%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UOM39 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
85.2%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #3 A.Marsh caught at WMU50, for 11 yards to the UOM50 (#13 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
50
+10
86.0%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Kuzdzal rush left for 20 yards gain to the WMU30 (#18 M.Davis; #13 J.Thomas), out of bounds PENALTY UOM Holding (#19 B.Underwood) 10 yards from WMU50 to UOM40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+8
84.4%
(10:32) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UOM48 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
84.6%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short right to #42 J.Hoffman thrown to WMU46 broken up by #8 J.SimsSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+8
83.6%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 8 yards gain to the WMU44 (#94 A.Tounkara; #6 J.Pope)Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
84.0%
(09:11) #33 C.Brown punt 36 yards to the WMU08 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16FG
23 plays · 71 yds · 13:3517% → 45%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
83.2%
(09:05) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU10 (#91 J.Lea'ea)Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
82.7%
(08:26) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #15 A.Parks caught at WMU11, for 7 yards to the WMU17 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
82.9%
(07:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WMU20 (#91 J.Lea'ea; #8 D.Nichols), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.6%
(07:11) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 6 yards gain to the WMU26 (#17 E.Etta; #7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
80.6%
(06:29) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU32 (#0 J.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
80.2%
(05:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WMU40 (#1 R.Moore; #4 C.Taylor)Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
78.3%
(05:12) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 3 yards gain to the WMU43 (#94 N.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
77.3%
(04:28) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #88 N.Levicki caught at WMU46, for 4 yards to the WMU47 (#7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
76.5%
(03:47) Shotgun #4 C.Cabana rush left for 5 yards gain to the UOM48 (#4 C.Taylor)Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
75.8%
(03:09) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM43 (#44 N.Staehling), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
74.9%
(02:26) Shotgun #4 C.Cabana rush right for 0 yards to the UOM43 (#8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
74.4%
(01:42) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UOM41 (#95 T.Pierce) PENALTY WMU Holding (#72 G.Dabo) 10 yards from UOM43 to WMU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+5
76.4%
PENALTY UOM Offside (#95 T.Pierce) 5 yards from WMU47 to UOM48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+1
75.3%
(00:55) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #8 E.Nelson caught at UOM48, for 1 yard to the UOM47 (#10 Z.Berry; #90 J.Daley)Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+16
75.9%
(00:07) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #2 A.Chenault caught at UOM42, for 16 yards to the UOM31 (#44 N.Staehling), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.1%
(14:58) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #2 A.Chenault caught at UOM30, for 0 yards to the UOM31 (#18 T.Bowles; #0 J.Hill)Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
70.5%
(14:11) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UOM25 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+4
70.5%
(13:28) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UOM21 (#44 N.Staehling; #7 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
67.6%
(12:41) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #15 A.Parks caught at UOM20, for 2 yards to the UOM19 (#10 Z.Berry)Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-3
67.0%
(12:01) Shotgun #1 E.Littlejohn rush left for 3 yards loss to the UOM22 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+1
68.4%
(11:14) Shotgun #4 C.Cabana rush right for 1 yard gain to the UOM21 (#8 D.Nichols)Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
54.6%
(10:28) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 10:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0261% → 57%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
61.2%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UOM25 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
62.4%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Hiter rush middle for 0 yards to the UOM25 (#18 M.Davis)Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
59.3%
(09:17) Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete short middle to #6 J.Buchanan thrown to UOM35 broken up by #6 J.PopeSimilar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
56.6%
(09:12) #33 C.Brown punt 47 yards to the WMU28 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 5:5248% → 68%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
52.4%
(09:07) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buckley thrown to WMU25 QB hurried by #8 D.NicholsSimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
53.1%
(09:02) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WMU32 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+11
52.0%
(08:20) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the WMU43 (#18 T.Bowles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
47.0%
(07:37) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UOM49 (#0 J.Hill; #4 C.Taylor)Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
43.0%
(06:51) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UOM48 (#9 C.Brandt; #7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
41.9%
(06:04) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UOM47 (#0 J.Hill; #95 T.Pierce), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
38.3%
(05:31) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UOM49 (#18 T.Bowles)Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
35.5%
(04:46) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 0 yards to the UOM49 (#95 T.Pierce)Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+5
33.7%
(04:01) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UOM44 (#9 C.Brandt; #44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
32.3%
(03:18) #25 R.Millmore punt 37 yards to the UOM07 fair catch by #3 A.Marsh at UOM07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 1:1445% → 42%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
45.3%
(03:06) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UOM22 (#8 J.Sims; #6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
45.8%
(02:46) Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 1 yard gain to the UOM23 (#0 B.Anes) PENALTY UOM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UOM23 to UOM18Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+13
42.4%
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush right for 13 yards gain to the UOM31 fumbled by #19 B.Underwood at UOM33 forced by #1 J.Franklin recovered by WMU #15 K.Burley at UOM31, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:0983% → 94%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
17.4%
(01:50) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UOM20 (#7 C.Bracy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
14.7%
(01:40) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 4 yards gain to the UOM16 (#44 N.Staehling)Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
13.3%
(01:30) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 4 yards gain to the UOM12 (#7 C.Bracy)Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-2
12.1%
(01:24) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UOM14 fumbled by #6 J.Buckley at UOM14 recovered by WMU #6 J.Buckley at UOM14, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+33
5.8%
(00:38) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 00:35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:2611% → 94%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.5%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep right to #3 A.Marsh thrown to WMU50Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
9.2%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep left to #9 C.Goodwin thrown to WMU47Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
9.2%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete deep middle to #6 J.Buchanan caught at WMU46, for 28 yards to the WMU47 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
12.5%
(00:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
12.0%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass incomplete deep middle to #3 A.Marsh thrown to WMU00Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+47
93.5%
JJ Buchanan 47 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
JJ Buchanan 47 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood
+90.5
FG · Q4 10:25
(10:28) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 10:25
-13.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com