2026 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026 · Notre Dame Stadium
Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
ND39
SMU16
ND by 23 · market ND by 17.5
Win chance
ND98%
SMU 2%ND 98%
Projected total
55pts
Market total 56.5
Explore the range of outcomes
52%
chance Notre Dame wins by 21 or more
48% Notre Dame wins by 20 or fewer, or loses
← SMU winsND wins →
-7+7+21+35+49
- 50% of outcomes
- ND by 11 to 31
- 80% of outcomes
- ND by 6 to 41
- 90% of outcomes
- ND by 3 to 45
- Median
- ND by 21
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.