2026 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026 · Kenan Stadium
Pregame projection
Points model v7Projected score
LOU30
UNC23
LOU by 7
Win chance
LOU66%
LOU 66%UNC 34%
Projected total
52pts
Combined points
Explore the range of outcomes
52%
chance Louisville wins by 7 or more
48% Louisville wins by 6 or fewer, or loses
← UNC winsLOU wins →
-28-140+14+28+42
- 50% of outcomes
- UNC by 4 to LOU by 15
- 80% of outcomes
- UNC by 14 to LOU by 28
- 90% of outcomes
- UNC by 21 to LOU by 32
- Median
- LOU by 7
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.