2026 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
DUKE28
UNC22
DUKE by 6 · market DUKE by 3
Win chance
DUKE66%
UNC 34%DUKE 66%
Projected total
50pts
Market total 47.5
Explore the range of outcomes
58%
chance Duke wins by 3 or more
42% Duke wins by 2 or fewer, or loses
← UNC winsDUKE wins →
-28-140+14+28+42
- 50% of outcomes
- UNC by 3 to DUKE by 17
- 80% of outcomes
- UNC by 13 to DUKE by 26
- 90% of outcomes
- UNC by 19 to DUKE by 33
- Median
- DUKE by 5
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
What's at stake
Playoff odds, and how this result moves them.
| The teams playing | Now | With a winWith a win | With a lossWith a loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Duke | 2% | 3% | <1% |
2026 week 6 odds, simulated every Tuesday. All playoff odds