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DUKE

Duke 25 at Georgia Tech 28

GT
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.3GT 49.2%(03:48) #25 G.Strange field goalattempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #41K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock03:47AWAY 10 - HOME 14 · Q2 3:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:47 · (03:48) #25 G.Strange field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 03:47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−6.8Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:37: (07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush left for 5 yards gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:37 #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler) — GT win probability +8.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:29: (10:37) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 60 yards gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:29, 1ST DOWN #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler) — GT win probability +12.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:18: (03:25) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #17 J.Richardson caught at GT 01, for 8 yards to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:18, 1ST DOWN #6 J.Burton pass attempt Successful — DUKE win probability +20.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 2:40: (02:45) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 5 yards gain to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:40, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates) — DUKE win probability +44.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:54: (00:55) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:54 #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler) — GT win probability +86.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:25GT 4th & 1 at GT 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:31DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20GT 4th & 5 at DUKE 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:28GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:21DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:47DUKE 4th & 6 at GT 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:53GT 4th & 4 at GT 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:35DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:40DUKE 4th & 4 at GT 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−2.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:06GT 4th & 3 at GT 16, up 3
    Close callPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:46DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:14GT 4th & 6 at GT 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:04DUKE 4th & 3 at GT 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−16.0
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−28.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:20DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:37GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:29GT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:40DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:54GT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−4.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 6:0238% → 43%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
38.2%
(14:54) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GT 25 (#42 K.Johnson)Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+15
38.4%
(14:27) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short left to #17 C.Corbo caught at GT 25, for 15 yards to the GT 40 (#1 K.Loud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
38.7%
(13:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short right to #4 J.Allen caught at GT 40, for 8 yards to the GT 48 (#34 L.Mergott; #1 K.Loud)Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
39.5%
(13:22) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short middle thrown to DU 48 QB hurried by #91 O.Wafle PENALTY GT Intentional Grounding (#15 A.Mendoza) 7 yards from GT 48 to GT 41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
39.7%
(13:09) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short left to #4 J.Allen caught at GT 38, for 8 yards to the GT 49 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
40.1%
(12:40) #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DU 49 (#12 B.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
40.6%
(12:07) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 6 yards gain to the DU 43 (#44 D.Anderson)Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
41.1%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 0 yards to the DU 43 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+27
41.5%
(11:04) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush right for 27 yards gain to the DU 16, out of bounds at DU 16, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
42.1%
(10:29) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #8 G.Harris thrown to DU 05Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
42.1%
(10:25) PENALTY GT False Start (#69 J.Ionata) 5 yards from DU 16 to DU 21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+4
42.2%
(10:19) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short left to #4 J.Allen caught at DU 24, for 4 yards to the DU 17 (#8 D.Stone)Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+12
42.6%
(09:39) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #13 I.Fuhrmann thrown to DU 05 PENALTY DU Pass Interference (#1 K.Loud) 12 yards from DU 17 to DU 05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.9%
(09:35) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 0 yards to the DU 05 (#12 B.Davis; #55 J.Columbus)Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.4%
(08:51) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short right to #4 J.Allen caught at DU 03, for 5 yards to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:47 #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:0557% → 55%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.7%
(08:45) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard loss to the DU 24 (#95 T.Thomas)Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
43.2%
(08:07) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 0 yards to the DU 24 (#95 T.Thomas) PENALTY DU Chop Block declinedSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+11
43.8%
(07:41) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DU 20, for 11 yards to the DU 35 (#44 K.Efford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
43.6%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DU 39 (#41 T.McCoy)Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
43.6%
(06:37) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 2 yards gain to the DU 41 (#27 T.Harris)Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-3
43.9%
(06:00) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DU 30, for 3 yards loss to the DU 38 (#6 K.Hill) PENALTY DU Personal Foul declinedSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+33
45.1%
(05:31) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 50 yards to the GT 12 #4 J.Allen return 33 yards to the GT 45 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5646% → 47%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
46.0%
(05:29) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short right to #8 G.Harris caught at GT 43, for 7 yards to the DU 48 (#18 K.Smith)Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-2
46.4%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush right for 2 yards loss to the DU 50 (#34 L.Mergott)Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 5
50
+9
46.4%
(04:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #4 J.Allen caught at DU 44, for 9 yards to the DU 41 (#7 N.Morris Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
47.3%
(03:57) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 4 yards gain to the DU 37 (#35 A.Pellicciotta) PENALTY GT Holding (#70 J.Riggs) 10 yards from DU 41 to GT 49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+1
47.1%
(03:38) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GT 50 (#55 J.Columbus)Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 19
50
+14
47.3%
(03:01) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short left to #13 I.Fuhrmann caught at DU 37, for 14 yards to the DU 36 (#4 E.Smith)Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
47.8%
(02:30) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #86 K.Roche Jr thrown to DU 25Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
47.2%
(02:23) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short left to #13 I.Fuhrmann thrown to DU 20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:5654% → 60%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.1%
(02:20) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right thrown to DU 36 broken up by #41 T.McCoySimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
46.7%
(02:07) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 3 yards gain to the DU 39 (#1 C.Spaulding)Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
46.8%
(01:31) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #85 J.Hasley caught at DU 44, for 8 yards to the DU 47 (#13 S.Riley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
46.2%
(01:00) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep middle to #6 J.Burton thrown to GT 10 PENALTY GT Pass Interference (#3 J.Mbakwe) 15 yards from DU 47 to GT 38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
46.0%
(00:55) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GT 34 (#5 Z.Tobe)Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+24
45.5%
(00:16) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at GT 31, for 24 yards to the GT 10 (#3 J.Mbakwe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
45.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 5 yards gain to the GT 05 (#0 M.Jordan IV)Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.0%
(14:22) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 5 yards gain to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4644% → 43%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.6%
(14:19) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 0 yards to the GT 25 (#43 S.Turner)Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.5%
PENALTY DU Offside (#55 J.Columbus) 5 yards from GT 25 to GT 30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
44.1%
(13:43) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short middle to #86 K.Roche Jr thrown to GT 40 broken up by #34 L.MergottSimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
43.3%
(13:40) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short right to #86 K.Roche Jr thrown to GT 40 broken up by #2 P.Smith-YoungSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.6%
(13:31) #47 A.Bacchetta punt 48 yards to the DU 22, out of bounds at DU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5757% → 55%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
42.8%
(13:27) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #6 J.Burton caught at DU 23, for 1 yard to the DU 23 (#27 T.Harris)Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+24
43.1%
(12:47) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush left for 24 yards gain to the DU 47 (#27 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
41.3%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush left for 7 yards gain to the GT 46 (#3 J.Mbakwe) PENALTY DU Holding (#85 J.Hasley) 10 yards from DU 47 to DU 37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
43.1%
(12:02) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Moore thrown to GT 35Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 20
OWN 37
0
43.3%
(11:58) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 0 yards to the DU 37 (#41 T.McCoy)Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+3
44.0%
(11:12) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DU 40 (#2 E.Lightsey; #95 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
44.7%
(10:32) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 52 yards to the GT 08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 2:3844% → 57%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
44.4%
(10:20) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GT 11 (#35 A.Pellicciotta)Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-1
44.9%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 1 yard loss to the GT 10 (#12 B.Davis)Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+15
44.2%
(09:19) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short middle to #4 J.Allen thrown to GT 12 broken up by #24 B.Gompers PENALTY DU Roughing The Passer (#10 T.Reed) 15 yards from GT 10 to GT 25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
45.5%
(09:14) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short left to #4 J.Allen caught at GT 38, for 15 yards to the GT 40 (#1 K.Loud), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#8 D.Stone) 14 yards from GT 40 to DU 46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
48.3%
(08:52) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #6 D.Gatling caught at DU 42, for 21 yards to the DU 25 (#1 K.Loud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
48.9%
(08:26) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 10 yards gain to the DU 15 (#2 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
48.9%
(07:59) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short left to #8 G.Harris caught at DU 05, for 10 yards to the DU 05 (#1 K.Loud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
57.4%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush left for 5 yards gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:37 #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4446% → 51%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
54.2%
(07:36) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 20 yards gain to the DU 45 (#5 Z.Tobe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
52.8%
(07:05) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 46 (#95 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
53.7%
(06:23) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #44 N.Kurisky caught at DU 47, for 11 yards to the GT 43 (#35 B.Outlaw), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
52.8%
(05:44) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 4 yards gain to the GT 39 (#3 J.Mbakwe)Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
52.7%
(05:05) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 2 yards gain to the GT 37 (#35 B.Outlaw) PENALTY GT Face Mask (#5 Z.Tobe) 15 yards from GT 37 to GT 22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.5%
(04:46) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #20 N.Sheppard thrown to GT 27Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
52.2%
(04:42) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GT 18 (#35 B.Outlaw; #95 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
53.5%
(04:00) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #17 J.Richardson thrown to GT 12 broken up by #99 V.Carroll-JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
49.2%
(03:48) #25 G.Strange field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 03:47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:4252% → 53%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
51.8%
(03:42) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza rush right for 16 yards gain to the GT 34 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
52.9%
(03:11) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GT 38 (#91 O.Wafle)Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
55.3%
(02:36) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #86 K.Roche Jr caught at GT 42, for 5 yards to the GT 43 (#7 N.Morris Jr.; #0 D.Flowers)Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-3
55.0%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 3 yards loss to the GT 40 (#7 N.Morris Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
52.8%
(01:59) #47 A.Bacchetta punt 46 yards to the DU 14 fair catch by #35 A.Pellicciotta at DU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 79 yds · 1:4446% → 50%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
54.0%
(01:48) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 1 yard gain to the DU 15 (#44 K.Efford; #2 E.Lightsey)Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+3
54.9%
(01:05) Shotgun #10 D.Mahan rush right for 3 yards gain to the DU 18 (#44 K.Efford)Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+13
55.9%
(00:20) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #17 J.Richardson caught at DU 29, for 13 yards to the DU 31 (#5 Z.Tobe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
53.8%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #17 J.Richardson thrown to DU 42Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
54.6%
(00:11) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at DU 32, for 11 yards to the DU 42 (#44 K.Efford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
52.5%
(00:05) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #17 J.Richardson caught at DU 49, for 9 yards to the GT 49 (#5 Z.Tobe)Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+42
50.3%
(00:00) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #8 J.Moore caught at GT 35, for 42 yards to the GT 07 (#2 E.Lightsey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2047% → 44%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DU 27 (#41 T.McCoy)Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
53.5%
(14:28) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DU 25, for 1 yard loss to the DU 26 (#6 K.Hill)Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
55.3%
(13:51) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #4 J.Solomon caught at DU 33, for 11 yards to the DU 37 (#3 J.Mbakwe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.1%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the DU 40 (#5 Z.Tobe). #5 Z.Tobe injured on the playSimilar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
52.3%
(12:54) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep right to #85 J.Hasley thrown to GT 40Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
53.8%
(12:48) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #44 N.Kurisky thrown to DU 42Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
55.7%
(12:45) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 42 yards to the GT 18 PENALTY GT Holding (#20 J.Powell) 9 yards from GT 18 to GT 09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 1:5455% → 74%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
54.7%
(12:36) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush right for 18 yards gain to the GT 27 (#4 E.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
55.2%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GT 29 (#8 D.Stone)Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
55.4%
(11:38) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #17 C.Corbo caught at GT 32, for 3 yards to the GT 32, End Of Play. #4 E.Smith injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+13
58.1%
(11:12) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #13 I.Fuhrmann caught at GT 38, for 13 yards to the GT 45 (#1 K.Loud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
61.2%
PENALTY GT False Start (#72 M.Carney) 5 yards from GT 45 to GT 40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+60
73.7%
(10:37) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 60 yards gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:29, 1ST DOWN #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:0529% → 46%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Burton thrown to GT 45Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.5%
(10:21) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 10 yards gain to the DU 35 (#41 T.McCoy), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY GT UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#41 T.McCoy) 15 yards from DU 35 to DU 50, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
50
+8
69.2%
(09:59) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #20 N.Sheppard caught at GT 49, for 8 yards to the GT 42 (#0 M.Jordan IV)Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-2
69.2%
(09:21) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush middle for 2 yards loss to the GT 44 (#1 C.Spaulding)Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
70.8%
(08:36) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #0 C.Campbell Jr. caught at GT 47, for 0 yards to the GT 44 (#92 C.Speakman; #94 D.Norris Jr)Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+6
72.9%
(07:50) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at GT 40, for 6 yards to the GT 38 (#6 K.Hill; #27 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
71.6%
(07:02) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at GT 36, for 3 yards to the GT 35 (#0 M.Jordan IV)Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
70.2%
(06:26) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep right to #17 J.Richardson thrown to GT 15Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+14
72.4%
(06:22) Shotgun #0 C.Campbell Jr. rush left for 14 yards gain to the GT 21 (#27 T.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
70.7%
(05:40) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #85 J.Hasley thrown to GT 13 broken up by #13 S.RileySimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
71.2%
(05:36) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 0 yards to the GT 21 (#2 E.Lightsey)Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+11
74.6%
(04:51) Shotgun #2 W.Eget rush left for 11 yards gain to the GT 10 (#41 T.McCoy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
72.7%
(04:08) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 2 yards gain to the GT 08 (#91 A.Fuller)Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
74.5%
(03:29) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short left to #85 J.Hasley thrown to GT 04Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
53.8%
(03:25) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #17 J.Richardson caught at GT 01, for 8 yards to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:18, 1ST DOWN #6 J.Burton pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5659% → 57%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
58.5%
(03:08) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short right to #1 T.Maddox caught at GT 07, for 3 yards to the GT 12 (#42 K.Johnson)Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
58.9%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush right for 1 yard gain to the GT 13 (#95 P.Watson)Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+3
57.7%
(01:57) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short right to #11 C.Alexander caught at GT 15, for 3 yards to the GT 16 (#0 D.Flowers)Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
56.8%
(01:17) #47 A.Bacchetta punt 58 yards to the DU 26, out of bounds at DU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:1340% → 35%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
60.3%
(01:04) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 8 yards gain to the DU 34 (#27 T.Harris)Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 2
OWN 34
0
57.5%
(00:21) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Burton thrown to GT 40Similar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+2
60.0%
(00:14) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DU 36 (#14 J.Duclona), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
59.5%
(14:56) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 37 (#2 E.Lightsey)Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
61.3%
(14:18) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #44 N.Kurisky caught at DU 39, for 3 yards to the DU 40 (#2 E.Lightsey)Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-1
61.4%
(13:33) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #17 J.Richardson caught at DU 39, for 1 yard loss to the DU 39 (#44 K.Efford)Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
64.9%
(12:56) #41 K.Reynoldson punt 52 yards to the GT 09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:2665% → 68%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
65.3%
(12:47) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 6 yards gain to the GT 15 (#9 C.Ojarikre)Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
66.1%
(12:16) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Allen thrown to GT 16Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+7
64.5%
(12:11) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #86 K.Roche Jr caught at GT 20, for 7 yards to the GT 22 (#24 B.Gompers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
66.8%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #4 J.Allen caught at GT 39, for 17 yards to the GT 39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.9%
(11:07) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 0 yards to the GT 39 (#91 O.Wafle; #8 D.Stone)Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
69.8%
(10:29) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short right to #4 J.Allen caught at GT 36, for 1 yard loss to the GT 38 (#5 K.Robinson)Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
68.1%
(09:53) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #1 T.Maddox caught at GT 42, for 5 yards to the GT 43 (#24 B.Gompers)Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
67.8%
(09:19) #47 A.Bacchetta punt 27 yards to the DU 30, out of bounds at DU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:2836% → 87%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.9%
(09:13) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete deep left to #4 J.Solomon thrown to GT 35Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
64.8%
(09:06) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush left for 7 yards gain to the DU 37 (#27 T.Harris)Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
63.1%
(08:25) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DU 41 (#11 B.Manley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
62.1%
(07:41) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard thrown to DU 40 PENALTY GT Holding (#27 T.Harris) 10 yards from DU 41 to GT 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.4%
(07:34) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Burton thrown to GT 30Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
59.8%
(07:29) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GT 48 (#95 T.Thomas)Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+9
62.1%
(06:46) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #85 J.Hasley caught at GT 45, for 9 yards to the GT 39 (#1 C.Spaulding), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
60.0%
(06:14) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GT 37 (#13 S.Riley)Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+11
60.4%
(05:30) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short left to #4 J.Solomon caught at GT 26, for 11 yards to the GT 26 (#3 J.Mbakwe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
58.0%
(04:50) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #85 J.Hasley caught at GT 24, for 2 yards to the GT 24 (#1 C.Spaulding)Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+14
58.2%
(04:09) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #6 J.Burton caught at GT 15, for 14 yards to the GT 10 (#6 K.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
58.4%
(03:23) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 5 yards gain to the GT 05 (#35 B.Outlaw)Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.5%
(02:45) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 5 yards gain to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:40, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD
14 plays · 61 yds · 1:3032% → 93%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
31.5%
(02:27) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GT 40 (#10 T.Reed)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+20
29.1%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #4 J.Allen caught at DU 44, for 20 yards to the DU 40 (#5 K.Robinson; #35 A.Pellicciotta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
34.9%
(01:58) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass incomplete short right to #22 J.Haynes thrown to DU 44Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
34.0%
(01:55) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza rush right for 5 yards gain to the DU 35, out of bounds at DU 35 PENALTY GT Holding (#72 M.Carney) 10 yards from DU 40 to DU 50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 20
50
+15
28.3%
PENALTY DU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#24 B.Gompers) 15 yards from DU 50 to DU 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
37.2%
(01:48) Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DU 31 (#35 A.Pellicciotta; #42 K.Johnson)Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+13
40.0%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #7 D.Penson caught at DU 22, for 13 yards to the DU 18 (#35 A.Pellicciotta), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
39.0%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DU 15 (#12 B.Davis)Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+14
36.4%
(01:04) Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete short middle to #4 J.Allen caught at DU 01, for 14 yards to the DU 01 (#8 D.Stone), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
(00:55) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:54 #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 0:4121% → 25%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
78.9%
(00:52) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DU 26, for 10 yards to the DU 35 (#44 K.Efford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+42
76.8%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short middle to #20 N.Sheppard caught at DU 38, for 42 yards to the GT 23 (#6 K.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
68.6%
(00:31) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #0 C.Campbell Jr. caught at GT 25, for 7 yards to the GT 16 (#95 T.Thomas)Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
68.6%
(00:11) No Huddle #2 W.Eget pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
71.1%
(00:08) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass incomplete short right to #85 J.Hasley thrown to GT 03 broken up by #2 E.LightseySimilar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
75.5%
(00:08) #25 G.Strange field goal attempt from 33 yards NO GOOD (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates), clock 00:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.3%
(00:04) Kneel down by #15 A.Mendoza at GT 18 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:54
(00:55) Shotgun #1 T.Maddox rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:54 #33 A.Birr kick attempt good (H: #47 A.Bacchetta, LS: #48 C.Keeler)
+86.3
TD · Q4 2:40
(02:45) Shotgun #20 N.Sheppard rush right for 5 yards gain to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:40, 1ST DOWN #25 G.Strange kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #27 J.Yates)
-44.9
TD · Q3 3:18
(03:25) Shotgun #2 W.Eget pass complete short right to #17 J.Richardson caught at GT 01, for 8 yards to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:18, 1ST DOWN #6 J.Burton pass attempt Successful
-20.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com