Try the model
FSU

Florida State 20 at Louisville 44

LOU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2026 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:50 · (14:50) #35 C.Hilbert field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead), clock 14:50
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−4.9Score differential−3.3Pregame prior+8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:08: (02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at LOU10, for 25 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:08, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers) — FSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:16: (09:23) #1 I.Brown rush left for 97 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:16, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead) — LOU win probability +10.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:21: (03:20) #24 M.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:21 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead) — LOU win probability +11.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:45: (12:45) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:45 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead) — LOU win probability +11.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:06: (08:08) #3 L.Kienholz rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:06 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead) — LOU win probability +8.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 4:43LOU 4th & 1 at FSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−1.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:37FSU 4th & 4 at LOU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:50LOU 4th & 4 at FSU 37, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:26FSU 4th & 1 at LOU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−2.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−9.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:28FSU 4th & 2 at LOU 2, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−10.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:10FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37FSU 4th & 12 at LOU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:58FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:25FSU 4th & 15 at LOU 35, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:33LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:40FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:26FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 24, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:27FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 39, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:59LOU 4th & 9 at FSU 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:34FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:08FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:16LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:21LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:45LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:06LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:57LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:30FSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:37LOU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2039% → 43%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.0%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FSU31 (#50 C.Lubin; #5 K.Entringer)Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
60.9%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU37, for 6 yards to the FSU37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
60.9%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FSU42 (#23 B.Perry)Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
60.8%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush right for 3 yards gain to the FSU45 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
60.8%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU49 (#5 K.Entringer; #2 D.Kennedy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
60.7%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #8 M.Danzy caught at LOU46, for 16 yards to the LOU35 (#10 K.Beasley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
60.5%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Robinson thrown to LOU20Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
60.5%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LOU27 (#10 K.Beasley; #3 T.Thompson)Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
60.5%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU23 (#6 S.Clark; #5 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
60.2%
(10:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 5 yards gain to the LOU18 (#6 S.Clark)Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
60.2%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU14 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
60.3%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LOU11 (#11 T.Capers; #23 B.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
60.1%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 4 yards gain to the LOU07 (#11 T.Capers), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
57.5%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:34, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4558% → 58%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.4%
(08:31) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU25 (#10 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.0%
(07:52) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short right to #1 I.Brown caught at LOU20, for 7 yards to the LOU32 (#7 A.Barker; #3 M.Desir)Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
57.8%
(07:10) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LOU35 (#15 R.Kennedy; #8 D.McCray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
57.7%
(06:29) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush left for 11 yards gain to the LOU46 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.1%
(05:53) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Hurry thrown to LOU46 QB hurried by #28 M.GbayorSimilar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
57.7%
(05:48) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz sacked for loss of 5 yards to the LOU41 (#15 R.Kennedy)Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+14
56.7%
(05:13) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short middle to #2 T.Hurry caught at FSU46, for 14 yards to the FSU45 (#6 J.Rawls)Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
57.9%
(04:46) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU45 (#10 C.Jones; #13 D.Diggs), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2944% → 51%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.0%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep middle to #15 J.Boggs thrown to LOU33 QB hurried by #23 B.PerrySimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
56.0%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU47 (#11 T.Capers; #99 J.Smith II)Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
55.7%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #32 O.Kromah caught at LOU38, for 15 yards to the LOU38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
55.1%
(03:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LOU32 (#11 T.Capers; #6 S.Clark)Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
54.6%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 K.Sperry pass incomplete short middle to #0 D.Robinson thrown to LOU20 broken up by #13 T.HollowaySimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
54.8%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to #0 D.Robinson thrown to LOU14 broken up by #13 T.HollowaySimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+7
55.3%
(02:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #8 M.Danzy caught at LOU26, for 7 yards to the LOU25 (#25 B.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
49.1%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at LOU10, for 25 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:08, 1ST DOWN #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:1051% → 50%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.6%
(02:03) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 0 yards to the LOU25 (#10 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
50.0%
(01:27) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete deep right to #7 L.McCoy caught at FSU45, for 32 yards to the FSU43, out of bounds at FSU43, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
51.0%
(00:59) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU41 (#10 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
50.6%
(00:25) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush right for 4 yards gain to the FSU37 (#0 Q.Jones)Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
50.3%
(14:56) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass incomplete short middle to #88 J.Skinner thrown to FSU36Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+54
50.2%
(14:50) #35 C.Hilbert field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead), clock 14:50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:1553% → 58%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
47.2%
(14:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 8 yards gain to the FSU45 (#10 K.Beasley; #25 B.Scott)Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+15
46.6%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to LOU20 PENALTY LOU Pass Interference (#13 T.Holloway) 15 yards from FSU45 to LOU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
46.3%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU39 (#4 T.Banks; #43 T.Carter)Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+15
45.4%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 15 yards gain to the LOU24 (#4 T.Banks; #43 T.Carter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
44.8%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 3 yards gain to the LOU21 (#43 T.Carter; #2 D.Kennedy)Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
44.2%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #8 M.Danzy thrown to LOU18 QB hurried by #17 A.Green and #50 C.LubinSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
44.2%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #5 Q.Wisner caught at LOU25, for 6 yards to the LOU15 (#11 T.Capers)Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
43.7%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU10 (#10 K.Beasley; #23 B.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
42.4%
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LOU03 (#23 B.Perry)Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.8%
(10:20) Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #89 G.Labiad thrown to LOU00 QB hurried by #23 B.PerrySimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
42.0%
(10:12) Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LOU02 (#6 S.Clark; #23 B.Perry)Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
41.6%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #7 J.Lopez caught at LOU04, for 1 yard loss to the LOU03 (#10 K.Beasley), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
1 play · 97 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+97
51.8%
(09:23) #1 I.Brown rush left for 97 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:16, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5348% → 49%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
51.8%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards loss to the FSU12 (#6 S.Clark)Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 14
OWN 12
0
51.8%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU12 (#23 B.Perry; #67 J.Glover-Tyson)Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+6
50.6%
(07:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #23 C.Loftin caught at FSU14, for 6 yards to the FSU18 (#38 C.White)Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
51.0%
(07:16) #85 E.Post punt 41 yards to the LOU41 fair catch by #14 J.Voth at LOU41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:4152% → 65%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
51.7%
(07:07) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short right to #7 L.McCoy caught at LOU46, for 11 yards to the FSU48 (#0 Q.Jones; #29 C.LaVallee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
52.5%
(06:34) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short left to #0 T.Richardson caught at LOU47, for 0 yards to the FSU48 (#29 C.LaVallee)Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
51.9%
(05:53) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush left for 13 yards gain to the FSU35 (#7 A.Barker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
53.4%
(05:17) Shotgun #24 M.Davis rush right for 21 yards gain to the FSU14 (#7 A.Barker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
53.3%
(04:37) #3 L.Kienholz rush right for 5 yards gain to the FSU09 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
53.1%
(03:59) Shotgun #24 M.Davis rush left for 6 yards gain to the FSU03 (#6 J.Rawls; #29 C.LaVallee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.0%
(03:20) #24 M.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:21 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 2:3142% → 43%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.8%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #6 D.Riles caught at FSU21, for 4 yards to the FSU29 (#38 C.White), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
57.0%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 2 yards loss to the FSU27 (#50 C.Lubin; #99 J.Smith II)Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
57.7%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at FSU39, for 13 yards to the FSU40 (#13 T.Holloway), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
54.5%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #15 J.Boggs caught at FSU44, for 7 yards to the FSU47 (#12 D.Waller)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+13
53.5%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #5 Q.Wisner caught at FSU45, for 13 yards to the LOU40 (#11 T.Capers; #5 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
52.5%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush right for 4 yards gain to the LOU36 (#10 K.Beasley; #6 S.Clark)Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-1
52.1%
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 1 yard to the LOU37 (#95 J.Donald, #6 S.Clark)Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
53.0%
PENALTY FSU False Start (#77 X.Chaplin) 5 yards from LOU37 to LOU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
54.8%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to LOU36 QB hurried by #3 T.Thompson and #29 B.RuffinSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
57.0%
(00:42) #85 E.Post punt 42 yards to the LOU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.8%
(00:36) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LOU22 (#3 M.Desir)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5064% → 75%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
64.1%
(14:41) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short left to #2 T.Hurry caught at FSU17, for 6 yards to the FSU08 (#6 J.Rawls), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
64.1%
(14:06) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush left for 3 yards gain to the FSU05 (#10 C.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
63.0%
(13:26) Shotgun #32 B.Jennings rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU03 (#11 C.Richard Jr.; #9 O.Graham Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.5%
(12:45) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:45 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4129% → 28%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.2%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 9 yards gain to the FSU34 (#50 C.Lubin; #12 D.Waller)Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
69.4%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #8 M.Danzy thrown to FSU38Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.6%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to #8 M.Danzy thrown to FSU40Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.9%
(12:01) #85 E.Post punt 42 yards to the LOU24 fair catch by #14 J.Voth at LOU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:4473% → 87%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
72.6%
(11:54) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush left for 2 yards gain to the LOU26 (#5 D.Lyons)Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+22
72.8%
(11:19) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short middle to #2 T.Hurry caught at LOU41, for 22 yards to the LOU48 (#9 O.Graham Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
75.4%
(10:34) #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short right to #2 T.Hurry caught at FSU41, for 11 yards to the FSU41 (#24 K.Kirkland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.7%
(10:09) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass incomplete deep middle to #0 T.Richardson thrown to FSU10Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+35
75.6%
(10:04) #3 L.Kienholz pass complete deep middle to #7 L.McCoy caught at FSU06, for 35 yards to the FSU06 (#14 M.Jones), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
77.7%
(09:25) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short right to #2 T.Hurry caught at FSU03, for 3 yards to the FSU03, out of bounds at FSU03Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.9%
(08:49) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush left for 2 yards gain to the FSU01 (#29 C.LaVallee; #55 K.Wynn)Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.7%
(08:08) #3 L.Kienholz rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:06 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:3515% → 13%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.6%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FSU48Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.8%
(07:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FSU35 (#4 T.Banks; #12 D.Waller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.1%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU39 (#6 S.Clark; #11 T.Capers)Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
83.8%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush middle for 11 yards gain to the FSU50 (#2 D.Kennedy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
50
+5
83.3%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU45 (#99 J.Smith II)Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+15
83.5%
(05:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 15 yards gain to the LOU30 (#10 K.Beasley; #2 D.Kennedy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
82.8%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right thrown to LOU35 QB hurried by #17 A.Green PENALTY FSU Intentional Grounding (#14 A.Daniels)Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+3
85.1%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LOU35 (#90 D.Russell)Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 15
OPP 35
0
86.2%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to LOU20 broken up by #23 B.PerrySimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
87.2%
(04:26) #36 D.Hughes punt 27 yards to the LOU08 fair catch by #14 J.Voth at LOU08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:4489% → 91%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
89.0%
(04:19) Shotgun #24 M.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LOU13 (#13 D.Diggs)Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+5
89.4%
(03:56) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush right for 5 yards gain to the LOU18 (#24 K.Kirkland), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
89.7%
(03:19) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Miles thrown to LOU30 broken up by #24 K.Kirkland QB hurried by #28 M.GbayorSimilar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-1
89.7%
(03:11) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz pass complete short right to #88 J.Skinner caught at LOU15, for 1 yard loss to the LOU17 (#0 Q.Jones)Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+4
91.0%
(02:28) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LOU21 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
91.2%
(01:39) #91 N.Hayes punt 48 yards to the FSU31, out of bounds at FSU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4212% → 11%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
88.0%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #18 L.Thomas caught at FSU30, for 6 yards to the FSU37 (#38 C.White), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
87.7%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to #8 M.Danzy thrown to LOU18 broken up by #10 K.BeasleySimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
88.2%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #8 M.Danzy thrown to FSU50. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
88.8%
(00:45) #85 E.Post punt 48 yards to the LOU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:3792% → 98%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
92.4%
(00:37) #1 I.Brown rush left for 1 yard loss to the LOU14 (#15 R.Kennedy) PENALTY LOU Personal Foul (#53 L.Robinson) 7 yards from LOU14 to LOU07Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 18
OWN 7
+4
92.4%
(00:14) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush left for 4 yards gain to the LOU11 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+18
92.4%
(14:58) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush right for 18 yards gain to the LOU29 (#10 C.Jones; #32 J.Anderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
93.0%
(14:20) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush right for 17 yards gain to the LOU46 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
93.7%
(13:41) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush right for 10 yards gain to the FSU44 (#10 C.Jones; #11 C.Richard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
98.4%
(13:02) Shotgun #32 B.Jennings rush middle for 44 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:57, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 4:112% → 7%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
98.4%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 1 yard to the FSU20 (#50 C.Lubin, #2 D.Kennedy)Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+4
98.5%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #6 D.Riles caught at FSU24, for 4 yards to the FSU24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
98.6%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #6 D.Riles thrown to FSU41 QB hurried by #2 D.KennedySimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+22
98.6%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #15 J.Boggs caught at FSU30, for 22 yards to the FSU46 (#38 C.White; #5 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
98.4%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards loss to the FSU42 (#90 D.Russell)Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+17
98.5%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #32 O.Kromah caught at FSU35, for 17 yards to the LOU41 (#6 S.Clark; #5 K.Entringer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
98.4%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #18 L.Thomas caught at LOU22, for 22 yards to the LOU19, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
98.2%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 7 yards to the LOU26 (#3 T.Thompson) PENALTY LOU Personal Foul (#3 T.Thompson) 10 yards from LOU19 to LOU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
98.2%
PENALTY FSU False Start (#71 N.Pabst) 5 yards from LOU09 to LOU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
98.4%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush middle for 9 yards gain to the LOU05 (#23 B.Perry)Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.3%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to #0 D.Robinson thrown to LOU00 broken up by #11 T.CapersSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.5%
PENALTY LOU Delay Of Game 3 yards from LOU05 to LOU02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.6%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #8 M.Danzy caught at LOU00, for 2 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #14 A.Daniels pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4596% → 99%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.6%
(08:27) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush right for 7 yards gain to the LOU32 (#24 K.Kirkland)Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
99.2%
(07:45) Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush middle for 68 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:37, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt failed ( blocked by #94 F.Whitley) (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead), out of bounds at FSU00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to #15 J.Boggs thrown to FSU30 QB hurried by #17 A.GreenSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.8%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #32 O.Kromah caught at FSU22, for 4 yards to the FSU29 (#13 T.Holloway)Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
98.9%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU35, for 8 yards to the FSU37 (#13 T.Holloway), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
98.9%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 8 yards to the FSU29 (#3 T.Thompson)Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+4
99.2%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush left for 4 yards gain to the FSU33 (#23 B.Perry), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+6
99.2%
(05:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush left for 6 yards gain to the FSU39 (#11 T.Capers), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+7
99.2%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #32 O.Kromah caught at FSU45, for 7 yards to the FSU46 (#6 S.Clark), out of bounds, TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 24 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.6%
(05:26) Shotgun #24 M.Davis rush left for 4 yards gain to the FSU42 (#11 C.Richard Jr.; #28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
99.7%
(05:20) Shotgun #24 M.Davis rush left for 8 yards gain to the FSU34 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
99.7%
(04:42) #24 M.Davis rush right for 11 yards gain to the FSU23 (#0 Q.Jones; #26 R.Knight III), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.7%
(04:34) #24 M.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU22 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-3
99.8%
(04:27) #24 M.Davis rush right for 3 yards loss to the FSU25 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+3
99.8%
(03:39) Shotgun #32 B.Jennings rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU22 (#55 K.Wynn)Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
99.8%
(03:01) #35 C.Hilbert field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead), clock 02:59Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass intercepted by #10 K.Beasley at FSU38 #10 K.Beasley return 0 yards to the FSU38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
(02:49) Shotgun #22 L.Thompkins rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FSU36 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+19
99.9%
(02:09) Shotgun #22 L.Thompkins rush left for 19 yards gain to the FSU17 (#32 J.Anderson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
99.8%
(01:53) Kneel down by Louisville at FSU19 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-1
99.8%
(01:15) Kneel down by Louisville at FSU20 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-1
99.8%
(00:33) Kneel down by Louisville at FSU21 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:21
(03:20) #24 M.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:21 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)
+11.9
TD · Q3 12:45
(12:45) Shotgun #3 L.Kienholz rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:45 #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)
+11.5
TD · Q2 9:16
(09:23) #1 I.Brown rush left for 97 yards gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:16, 1ST DOWN #35 C.Hilbert kick attempt good (H: #17 R.Zimmerman, LS: #51 H.Travelstead)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com