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ND

Notre Dame 37 at North Carolina 26

UNC
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · End of 4th quarter.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:21: (00:25) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #45 J.Thurman caught at ND 00, for 14 yards to the ND 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt) — UNC win probability +6.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:46: (15:00) #36 M.Drescher kickoff 63 yards to the UNC02 #24 J.Jefferson return 98 yards to the ND 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:46 #93 J.Horvath pass attempt failed PENALTY UNC Holding declined — UNC win probability +7.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:36: (05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:36 PENALTY UNC Offside declined #39 J.Scaife rush attempt failed — ND win probability +9.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Nolan James Jr. 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Spencer Porath Kick) — ND win probability +7.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:36: (02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #45 J.Thurman caught at ND 03, for 10 yards to the ND 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:36, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt failed ( blocked by #28 L.Talich) (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt), out of bounds at ND 00 — UNC win probability +4.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:54ND 4th & 6 at ND 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:10UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:34ND 4th & 2 at UNC 2, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:02ND 4th & 2 at UNC 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−3.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:01ND 4th & 1 at UNC 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−2.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:36ND 4th & 3 at UNC 3, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−12.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:08UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:20UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:05ND 4th & 4 at UNC 13, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:06UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:07ND 4th & 13 at UNC 37, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:34UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:41ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:26ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:53ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:21UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:46UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:36ND Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:36UNC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0192% → 91%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ND 29 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
8.5%
(14:27) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at ND 31, for 7 yards to the ND 36 (#18 J.Patterson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
8.6%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Faison thrown to UNC33 broken up by #18 J.PattersonSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
8.6%
(13:54) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #87 C.Flanagan caught at ND 36, for 4 yards to the ND 40 (#18 J.Patterson; #10 P.Seelmann)Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
8.9%
(13:13) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #2 N.James Jr. thrown to ND 44 broken up by #10 P.SeelmannSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
9.0%
(13:09) #39 J.Scaife punt 34 yards to the UNC26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:109% → 12%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
9.1%
(12:54) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC39, for 13 yards to the UNC39 (#15 L.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
9.3%
(12:19) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC42 (#4 J.Ausberry)Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
9.6%
(11:47) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC46 (#88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+44
9.9%
(11:05) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at ND 36, for 44 yards to the ND 10 (#2 D.McKinney; #8 A.Shuler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
10.3%
(10:30) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ND 08 (#7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
10.5%
PENALTY UNC False Start (#75 A.Threatt) 5 yards from ND 08 to ND 13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
10.6%
(09:42) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short right to #7 B.Hall thrown to ND 19 QB hurried by #5 B.TraoreSimilar
Q1 9:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
10.5%
PENALTY ND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#4 J.Ausberry) 7 yards from ND 13 to ND 06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.5%
(09:39) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #84 S.Easter caught at ND 07, for 6 yards to the ND 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:34, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4589% → 89%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
11.2%
(09:34) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at ND 32, for 11 yards to the ND 36 (#18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
11.5%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at ND 45, for 14 yards to the ND 50 (#7 P.Waters; #15 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
50
+5
11.5%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC45 (#0 I.Johnson)Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
11.9%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep right to #87 C.Flanagan thrown to UNC25 QB hurried by #97 T.GiddensSimilar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+10
12.0%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #6 J.Faison caught at UNC40, for 10 yards to the UNC35 (#6 T.Miller; #2 K.Cost), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
12.1%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC28 (#1 G.Smith III)Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+28
11.1%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep middle to #6 J.Faison caught at UNC00, for 28 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:41, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
11.7%
(06:41) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass intercepted by #27 K.Viliamu-Asa at UNC26 broken up by #5 B.Traore QB hurried by #5 B.Traore #27 K.Viliamu-Asa return 14 yards to the UNC12 (#27 J.McGill)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
10.0%
(06:29) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #1 J.Greathouse caught at UNC00, for 12 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:26, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3311% → 11%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.5%
(06:26) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNC26 (#10 L.Thomas; #27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
10.6%
(05:50) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #45 J.Thurman thrown to ND 45Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
10.5%
(05:46) Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush right for 12 yards gain to the UNC38 (#34 D.Bowen; #3 J.Sneed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
11.0%
(05:08) #27 J.McGill rush right for 1 yard loss to the UNC37 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+4
11.1%
(04:32) Shotgun #0 D.June rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNC41 (#3 J.Sneed)Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
11.3%
(03:53) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass intercepted by #28 L.Talich at ND 23, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:4489% → 91%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
11.1%
(03:46) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #22 A.Williams caught at ND 18, for 1 yard to the ND 24 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+24
11.3%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush right for 24 yards gain to the ND 48 (#7 P.Waters), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
11.0%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the ND 48 (#5 D.Hoilette; #0 I.Johnson)Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
11.1%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ND 49 (#0 I.Johnson)Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+9
11.4%
(01:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UNC46, for 9 yards to the UNC42 (#18 J.Patterson; #1 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
11.3%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete deep left to #6 J.Faison thrown to UNC20 PENALTY UNC Offside (#11 J.Harvey) 5 yards from UNC42 to UNC37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+4
11.3%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 4 yards gain (4) to the UNC33 (#11 J.Harvey), out of bounds PENALTY ND Holding (#14 M.Gilbert) 10 yards from UNC33 to UNC43Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
11.3%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short middle to #88 J.Flanigan thrown to UNC32Similar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 11
OPP 43
0
11.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short middle to #87 C.Flanagan thrown to UNC32Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+4
11.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 4 yards gain to the UNC39 (#15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+39
9.5%
(14:58) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete deep right to #6 J.Faison caught at UNC00, for 39 yards to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #35 S.Porath kick attempt good (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3610% → 10%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.1%
(14:53) Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC29 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa)Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
10.3%
(14:13) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #45 J.Thurman caught at UNC26, for 1 yard loss to the UNC28 (#28 L.Talich)Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
10.1%
(13:27) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #14 C.Sadler thrown to UNC34 broken up by #15 L.MooreSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
10.1%
(13:21) #92 A.Burrell punt 49 yards to the ND 23 #6 J.Faison return 14 yards to the ND 37 (#10 P.Seelmann), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 61 yds · 5:3290% → 90%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
9.6%
(13:11) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 5 yards gain to the ND 42 (#8 J.Agumadu)Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
9.5%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #7 T.Washington caught at ND 48, for 6 yards to the ND 48 (#18 J.Patterson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
9.4%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush right for 8 yards gain to the UNC44 (#2 K.Cost)Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+13
9.4%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #20 J.Walton caught at UNC49, for 13 yards to the UNC31 (#6 T.Miller; #15 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
9.4%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC25 (#8 J.Agumadu). #0 I.Johnson injured on the playSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+15
9.4%
(10:12) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short middle to #20 J.Walton caught at UNC21, for 15 yards to the UNC10 (#6 T.Miller), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
9.3%
(09:30) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNC07 (#15 D.McDonald; #91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
9.3%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC01 (#15 D.McDonald; #8 J.Agumadu)Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
9.8%
(08:18) Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 1 yard loss to the UNC02 (#11 J.Harvey)Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
10.0%
(07:41) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short middle to #87 C.Flanagan thrown to UNC00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
16 plays · 97 yds · 7:0810% → 18%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
9.6%
(07:36) Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC03 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+13
9.6%
(06:53) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #14 C.Sadler caught at UNC08, for 13 yards to the UNC16 (#12 J.Sanders), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
9.9%
(06:18) Shotgun #0 D.June rush right for 0 yards to the UNC16 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
9.9%
(05:39) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC21, for 5 yards to the UNC21 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+6
9.9%
(04:58) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNC27 (#3 J.Sneed), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.1%
(04:24) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 0 yards to the UNC27 (#88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
10.1%
(03:42) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UNC37 (#5 B.Traore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
10.5%
(02:56) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC41 (#34 D.Bowen)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+15
10.7%
(02:13) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #45 J.Thurman caught at ND 47, for 15 yards to the ND 44 (#8 A.Shuler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
11.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #84 S.Easter caught at ND 41, for 6 yards to the ND 38 (#12 J.Sanders)Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+12
11.1%
(01:26) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #84 S.Easter caught at ND 27, for 12 yards to the ND 26 (#29 C.Gray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
11.5%
(01:01) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #45 J.Thurman caught at ND 14, for 12 yards to the ND 14, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
11.6%
(00:32) Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush middle for 0 yards to the ND 14 (#5 B.Traore)Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
11.5%
(00:28) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #45 J.Thurman thrown to ND 12 broken up by #15 L.Moore QB hurried by #7 F.BrewuSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
17.8%
(00:25) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #45 J.Thurman caught at ND 00, for 14 yards to the ND 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:21, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt good (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
14.2%
(00:14) Kneel down by #13 C.Carr at ND 29 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 9:0478% → 84%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.4%
(14:46) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 8 yards gain to the ND 33 (#18 J.Patterson; #10 P.Seelmann)Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
21.7%
(14:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 6 yards gain to the ND 39 (#1 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
21.8%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ND 48 (#10 P.Seelmann)Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+1
21.7%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ND 49 (#91 L.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
22.3%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC47 (#10 P.Seelmann; #15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
22.6%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short left to #14 M.Gilbert thrown to UNC45 broken up by #18 J.PattersonSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
23.0%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC43 (#11 J.Harvey)Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+4
24.6%
(11:08) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC39 (#1 G.Smith III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
22.6%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNC35 (#91 L.Jackson; #96 N.Maggio)Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
21.8%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right thrown to UNC36 broken up by #91 L.Jackson QB hurried by #9 M.Abou JaoudeSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
23.4%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC30 (#7 P.Waters; #97 T.Giddens)Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+7
24.7%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC23 (#96 N.Maggio), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
22.5%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 18 yards gain to the UNC05 (#15 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
22.9%
(07:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC03 (#7 P.Waters; #10 P.Seelmann)Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
23.2%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UNC05 (#11 J.Harvey)Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
24.9%
(06:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #22 A.Williams caught at UNC03, for 2 yards to the UNC03 (#15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.8%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:36 PENALTY UNC Offside declined #39 J.Scaife rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2319% → 17%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.7%
(05:36) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #14 C.Sadler thrown to UNC38 QB hurried by #5 B.TraoreSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.6%
(05:29) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC29 (#7 F.Brewu; #95 B.Young)Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
18.3%
(04:56) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. sacked for loss of 7 yards to the UNC22 (#7 F.Brewu)Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+6
17.2%
(04:18) #92 A.Burrell punt 52 yards to the ND 26 #6 J.Faison return 6 yards to the ND 32 (#24 J.Jefferson) PENALTY ND Running Into The Kicker declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:0884% → 94%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
16.1%
(04:08) Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ND 41 (#8 J.Agumadu)Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+13
15.1%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at ND 40, for 13 yards to the UNC46 (#7 P.Waters), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
14.8%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UNC35 (#8 J.Agumadu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
14.5%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNC30 (#15 D.McDonald)Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+7
14.5%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC23 (#15 D.McDonald; #8 J.Agumadu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
14.6%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNC14 (#1 G.Smith III; #8 J.Agumadu)Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+8
14.6%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.James Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNC06 (#15 D.McDonald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.3%
Nolan James Jr. 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Spencer Porath Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:199% → 9%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
8.6%
(14:54) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC38, for 13 yards to the UNC38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
9.4%
(14:21) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #84 S.Easter thrown to UNC40Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
9.0%
(14:17) Shotgun #27 J.McGill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNC42 (#8 A.Shuler)Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
9.5%
(13:32) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #87 C.Sneed thrown to UNC50 broken up by #34 D.Bowen QB hurried by #5 B.TraoreSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
8.9%
(13:27) #92 A.Burrell punt 33 yards to the ND 25, out of bounds at ND 25 PENALTY UNC Holding (#48 G.Burt) 10 yards from ND 25 to ND 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 6:0494% → 97%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
6.3%
(13:17) Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #22 A.Williams caught at ND 38, for 3 yards to the ND 38 (#54 T.Hickman-Collins)Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
5.7%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ND 41 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
5.6%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ND 45 (#10 P.Seelmann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
5.0%
(11:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UNC44, for 11 yards to the UNC44, out of bounds at UNC44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
4.9%
PENALTY ND False Start (#75 S.Absher) 5 yards from UNC44 to UNC49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+10
4.8%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short left to #6 J.Faison caught at UNC39, for 10 yards to the UNC39 (#21 K.Dopson III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
4.3%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #1 J.Greathouse caught at UNC33, for 6 yards to the UNC33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
4.3%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass complete short right to #14 M.Gilbert caught at UNC28, for 14 yards to the UNC19 (#18 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
4.2%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNC16 (#97 T.Giddens)Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
4.1%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Greathouse thrown to UNC00 broken up by #7 P.WatersSimilar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+3
4.2%
(07:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 A.Williams rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC13 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
3.5%
(07:07) #35 S.Porath field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #39 J.Scaife, LS: #96 J.Vinci), clock 07:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:184% → 8%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
4.1%
(07:05) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #0 D.June caught at UNC22, for 12 yards to the UNC37, out of bounds at UNC37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.9%
(06:30) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Kekahuna thrown to UNC36Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
3.9%
(06:27) Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC43 (#28 L.Talich)Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-1
3.7%
(05:55) Shotgun #0 D.June rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNC42 (#88 A.Mukam)Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+10
2.9%
(05:13) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at UNC48, for 10 yards to the ND 48 (#12 J.Sanders), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
2.9%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short right to #1 J.Shipp caught at ND 30, for 21 yards to the ND 27, out of bounds at ND 27, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was out of bounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
3.4%
(04:07) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush left for 4 yards gain to the ND 23 (#27 K.Viliamu-Asa), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+10
3.3%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the ND 13 (#3 J.Sneed), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
3.3%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass incomplete short left to #45 J.Thurman thrown to ND 00 broken up by #8 A.ShulerSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
3.3%
(03:06) Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 J.Shipp caught at ND 11, for 3 yards to the ND 10 (#28 L.Talich)Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
7.6%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 B.Edwards Jr. pass complete short left to #45 J.Thurman caught at ND 03, for 10 yards to the ND 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:36, 1ST DOWN #90 R.Verhoff kick attempt failed ( blocked by #28 L.Talich) (H: #93 J.Horvath, LS: #48 G.Burt), out of bounds at ND 00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:2195% → 97%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
4.6%
(02:35) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UNC39 (#15 D.McDonald; #96 N.Maggio)Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+5
4.5%
(02:19) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNC34 (#10 P.Seelmann), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
3.6%
(02:00) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNC31 (#10 P.Seelmann)Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+10
3.5%
(01:15) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush right for 31 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:07 PENALTY ND Holding (#87 C.Flanagan) 10 yards from UNC31 to UNC41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+2
3.7%
(01:04) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNC39 (#24 J.Butts)Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+2
3.9%
(01:00) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNC37 (#91 L.Jackson)Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 13
OPP 37
+12
3.4%
(00:16) Shotgun #20 J.Walton rush left for 12 yards gain to the UNC25 (#24 J.Butts), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.7%
(00:09) Shotgun #7 B.Hall rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC33 (#20 J.O'Brien)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:36
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 C.Carr rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:36 PENALTY UNC Offside declined #39 J.Scaife rush attempt failed
-9.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Nolan James Jr. 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Spencer Porath Kick)
-7.9
TD · Q3 14:46
(15:00) #36 M.Drescher kickoff 63 yards to the UNC02 #24 J.Jefferson return 98 yards to the ND 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:46 #93 J.Horvath pass attempt failed PENALTY UNC Holding declined
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com